A Gulf of Mexico and an Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (designated 94L by NHC on Friday) is over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is headed north towards the Texas/Louisiana coast at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that has been steadily growing this morning. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, since Friday, and the lower wind shear is likely responsible for the increase in thunderstorm activity. A trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into the west side of 94L, interfering with development. The disturbance should move inland by Sunday morning, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3" along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop, and the disturbance has only a day over water with marginal conditions for development. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 1. The Saturday morning NHC Tropical Weather Outlook shows two "Invests" worth watching: 94L over the Gulf of Mexico (area 1), and 95L over the Eastern Atlantic (area 2.) Both were given 20% chances of developing by Monday. Image credit: NHC.

Cape Verdes tropical wave 95L
As we approach mid-July, it's time to begin turning our attention to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. We have our first such system worthy of attention today, a tropical wave designated 95L over the Eastern Atlantic near 8°N 33°W, about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that is showing a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28°C. The 8 am EDT Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that 95L would encounter cooler waters of 27.5°C over the weekend as it headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate though Monday, which may allow for some additional organization. However, 95L is embedded in a very large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and July African waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL. The disturbance could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. A band a strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream is expected to be over the northern islands at that time, and if 95L has penetrated as far north as 15°N latitude by that time, it will have to face very high wind shear of 30+ knots. But if 95L stays farther to the south, wind shear should be lower, giving the storm a better chance of development. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 95L taken at approximately 11 am EDT Saturday, July 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. The models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation, and there is only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the southwestern coast of Mexico, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon. Erick will bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Southwest Mexico, but the core of the storm is currently expected to remain just offshore. Erick will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, when it will pass just south of Baja.

Cool San Francisco time-lapse fog video
Videographer Simon Christen has created a spectacular 4-minute time-lapse video of fog rushing in past the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco. He writes: ""Adrift" is a love letter to the fog of the San Francisco Bay Area. I chased it for over two years to capture the magical interaction between the soft mist, the ridges of the California coast and the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This is where “Adrift” was born. The weather conditions have to be just right for the fog to glide over the hills and under the bridge. I developed a system for trying to guess when to make the drive out to shoot, which involved checking the weather forecast, satellite images and webcams multiple times a day. For about 2 years, if the weather looked promising, I would set my alarm to 5am, recheck the webcams, and then set off on the 45-minute drive to the Marin Headlands. I spent many mornings hiking in the dark to only find that the fog was too high, too low, or already gone by the time I got there. Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special. Adrift is a collection of my favorite shots from these excursions into the ridges of the Marin Headlands."


Video 1. Adrift from Simon Christen on Vimeo.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 443. twistedfolks:
it wont hit florida, thats for sure

I am poofing you,bye.
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Quoting 436. twistedfolks:
Models show 95l doing a recurve out to sea later on in the forcast... sounds about right based on the high
THE MODELES ARE NOT RIGHT THAT FAR OUT SILLY.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 148 Comments: 124543
Already blowing up TCU before dusk...

This one has some spunk

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Quoting 445. Relix:
Shouldn't the fast forward speed affect its chances?


It won't, it's only trucking at 20mph, fast but not unfavorably fast.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24965


Maybe jus use the post# next time.

; )







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94L Rainbow Image

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Quoting 435. HurricaneAndre:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.



FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
You didn't have to post the whole thing.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
AL952013 - INVEST RAMMB page
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Quoting 265. stoormfury:
a few days ago I nailed 95L WHEN I SAID AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WAS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CARRYING A L;OW OF 1012MB. I WAS ATTACKED BY A BLOGGER WHO I SEE HAS NOW JUMPED ON THE BAND WAGON . I THINK HE IS A KID FROM CAYMAN. I WAS RIGHT AFTER ALL.
IIRC, it was either kid or Taz who posted imagery of this Twave when it was still an AEW over Togo or somewhere similar. Lots of pple have been watching this one.

Quoting 267. moonlightcowboy:


Curious, after looking at your Meteosat image, are we seeing these African storms, twaves a bit further south and coming off the coastline there this season? I've never particularly watched where they come off the coast that closely, but seems there a tad south. Maybe a climatological thing right now though too, and they'll edge a bit further north as season progresses. Might be a bad observation as well. :)
Seems to me the stronger the AB high is the more likely it is to see storms coming off a bit south. Correlating w/ the ITCZ, I think.

Quoting 271. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I doubt anything ever comes of our little cold-core ULL, but it is neat to watch spinning away nonetheless.

Rolling along in our direction quite nicely too, I see... lol

Quoting 273. moonlightcowboy:
E D I T



Intensity continues to be a problem with most of the models I think. Some are better at cyclogenesis, others at track, but all seem to be lacking still with intensity forecasts. A few years back the GFDL was supposed to have had some intensity improvements, but seems that hasn't panned out too well either yet.
I think this is the challenge of the Levi's and Drak's and Kori's of the tropical wx community. Models do much better with non-tropical lows, don't they? Somebody is going to have to make a breakthrough.
Quoting 303. wunderkidcayman:


Lolx1000

Recon prefers 95L than 94L
Free trip to the Caribbean gotta be more interesting than flying NEAR Mexico... without landing or anything... lol

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445. Relix
Shouldn't the fast forward speed affect its chances?
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Quoting 419. lobdelse81:
Bertha hit North Carolina. Then Fran followed 2 months later.



oh



i most be thinking of bill in 09
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Quoting 436. twistedfolks:
Models show 95l doing a recurve out to sea later on in the forcast... sounds about right based on the high

That is not true at all also when you have a strong high it brings the storms west not ots.I don't get what you wrote at all.
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Moving at 20-25KTS will keep future Chantal weaker. Surface low may out run the convection. Reminds me of this Link
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Quoting 431. HouGalv08:
Regardless, if 94L peters out to nothing, thats ok. i hope that whole mess moves to the Texas coast giving us much needed rain here in Houston.


Looks like you're going to get a really good soaking, unless the Texas shield shoves it east.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
# 5 here in the Community Standards is clear
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Pretty interesting now that we are firmly in phase 2 of the MJO a vigorous wave across the MDR comes out of Africa, the most favorable phase with linkage to the Indian Ocean convection. This one should be very interesting to watch.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
Quoting 428. Speeky:
predictions for 95L?

Where do you think it will make landfall?
How strong do you think it will be?

If this storm does form in or go into the Caribbean sea my best guess is that this storm may become at least a Category 1. If we are lucky and everything sets up in the right place we could have a category 2 or 3 in the center of the Caribbean. After that it would probably go one two ways. Either head north east and eventually go back out to sea (it may also hit the U.S.). Or it will continue West North West and head in to the Gulf.

This could all be wrong, I am just basing my guess off of usually July tropical storm paths.


I think it will atleast become an invest, and looking good enough for orange crayons.

Hey, look! xD
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 061806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N39W TO A 1012 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.
EXCEPT FOR THE PORTION OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...VERY DRY AIR FROM A SAL OUTBREAK SPREADS OVER ITS
ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION N OF 9N. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 32W-36W ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N61W TO 13N68W AND
IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A MORE MOIST AREA LIES FARTHER EAST
WHERE THE WAVE WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. WIDESPREAD DUST HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND DRY AIR IS OBSERVED SURROUNDING THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-20N WITHIN 250 NM E OF
THE WAVE AXIS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N66W AND AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 12N58W. RADAR IMAGERY FROM
PUERTO RICO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N E OF 68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
19N16W TO 11N23W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 06N33W TO 06N36W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N36W AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N49W 06N57W.
BESIDES CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N E
OF 19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ AND
WITHIN 80 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BASIN WIDE WITH A MAXIMUM S OF 27N W OF
90W. THIS MOISTURE IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT IS PUSHING
INTO THE NW GULF...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W...ACROSS SE
LOUISIANA TO 29N91W 26N96W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS W OF 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N
BETWEEN 84W-90W. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW OF 15-25 KT SPREADS
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS W OF 90W.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WITH THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION BEING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS RETURN FLOW
COMPLETELY BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT W-NW. RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN DRIER AIR ENTERS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEING DRAWN OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 18N W OF
73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 77W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WHICH MOVES ACROSS PANAMA TO A 1008 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS JUST
EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY.
CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-20N WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS
BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N66W AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED 12N58W. RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 16N E OF 68W. DRY AIR AT LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS FLOW OF 15-
20 KT IS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER WINDS TO 25
KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
PUERTO RICO VERY EARLY ON SUNDAY. RAINSHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY VERY DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN
ADDITION...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN REPORTING WIDESPREAD DUST
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER RAINSHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL START TO DEGRADE VERY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TOWARDS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SHIFTING WESTWARD
ALONG WITH THE WAVE AS WELL AS MODERATE MOISTURE ARE LIKELY TO
ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EARLY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WEST ATLC AROUND A 1027 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N71W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER RIDGING
CENTERED NEAR 35N69W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N66W
SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 63W-70W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE EAST SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N WITHIN 250 NM
E OF THE WAVE AXIS. A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH EXTENDS INTO
THE AREA ALONG 30N42W TO 29N46W 29N52W 29N56W 29N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 41W-45W...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 58W-63W. VERY DRY AIR IS THROUGHOUT
THE EAST ATLC DUE TO A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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Quoting 430. Patrap:


Thanx for modifying,..as you can modify, but your original "P" word remains in the archive,



This is the only place I have seem that "P" word considered a curse word LOL

either way I corrected it, but still its a bit silly lol
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Quoting 393. Drakoen:
First really impressive wave of the season, that actually has a chance. Satellite loops shows it has a decent lower to mid level circulation. Water vapor imagery shows a good amount of moisture which is associated with the ITCZ which is fine for now or else there would be no 95L.




Best overall analog I can find, given DOB, place of birth, with the GFS liking a Western track.
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Quoting 423. opal92nwf:
Where do you find these charts? I found this one on an old Jeff Masters blog.

Also, where do you find the charts that show all the tracks of tropical cyclone when one is situated in a certain area at a certain time of year (that's the best I could explain it :P)


This link should help: Link

happy searching :)
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Regardless, if 94L peters out to nothing, thats ok. i hope that whole mess moves to the Texas coast giving us much needed rain here in Houston.
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Quoting 424. Hurricanes101:


um where did I curse?


Thanx for modifying, but your original "P" word remains in the archive,

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Didnt expect a 30% chance for this wave in the Atlantic...certainly looks good. Buoy near 11N and 37W recorded 15kt winds from N....just a note.
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predictions for 95L?

Where do you think it will make landfall?
How strong do you think it will be?

If this storm does form in or go into the Caribbean sea my best guess is that this storm may become at least a Category 1. If we are lucky and everything sets up in the right place we could have a category 2 or 3 in the center of the Caribbean. After that it would probably go one two ways. Either head north east and eventually go back out to sea (it may also hit the U.S.). Or it will continue West North West and head in to the Gulf.

This could all be wrong, I am just basing my guess off of usually July tropical storm paths.
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Quoting 423. opal92nwf:
Where do you find these charts? I found this one on an old Jeff Masters blog.

Also, where do you find the charts that show all the tracks of tropical cyclone when one is situated in a certain area at a certain time of year (that's the best I could explain it :P)




Try the Wunderground Hurricane Archive on the Tropical Page
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Quoting 419. lobdelse81:
Bertha hit North Carolina. Then Fran followed 2 months later.


Do me a favor. Don't mention it anymore.
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Quoting 419. lobdelse81:
Bertha hit North Carolina. Then Fran followed 2 months later.

Bertha of 2002 Did hit North Carolina. Bertha, the one Taz was talking about, of 2008 was a early cape verde storm as well that went out to sea.
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Quoting 418. Patrap:
412. Hurricanes101

Cussing in any form is NOT allowed.

MODIFY your post.


um where did I curse?
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Where do you find these charts? I found this one on an old Jeff Masters blog.

Also, where do you find the charts that show all the tracks of tropical cyclone when one is situated in a certain area at a certain time of year (that's the best I could explain it :P)
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Quoting 417. TylerStanfield:




Called it first :) lol
No I think Taz give that idea to you lol
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
im cant believe how good 95L looking right now omg
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Quoting 412. Hurricanes101:


He is just pissed that TW in the CATL is better organized and garnering more attention than the system he/she said a few days ago could be like Audrey in the GOM lol
More like Failedrey.lol.
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Bertha hit North Carolina. Then Fran followed 2 months later.
Quoting 390. Tazmanian:



but it may not be going out too sea like Bertha did
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Cussing in any form is NOT allowed.

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Quoting 398. TylerStanfield:
The continued West-Northwest track 95L has been taking will mean that it will be cutting the umbilical of the ITCZ Sunday Evening... After that, we shall see how it manages itself and see if it can stay alive, tomorrow is a crucial day to determine if this will become our next named storm or not.


Quoting 413. Hurricanes305:

Circulation looks to be heading slightly North of due west gaining some latitude. We may see it detach itself sometime Sunday.


Called it first :) lol
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Quoting 414. TylerStanfield:
Their's always a chance post season.but it'll be nameless.
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415. SLU
Quoting 401. BahaHurican:
U do realize that if this season flops, not only will you have egg on your face, but also some enterprising wunderblogger will wipe it off and use it to batter your crow before they deep-fry it and stuff it down your throat, right?

Not that I think you are wrong, sad to say... stuff's been sailing over that high instead of cutting into it... whatever forms stays south over the best liquid fuel in the basin... your chances of egg-battered crow are, imo, less than 95L's atm....


lol ..one thing about predicting the weather is to never be afraid to be wrong. I'm willing to eat deep-fried crow and steamed veggies at the end of the season if it busts.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5391
Quoting 408. washingtonian115:
92L would be so proud.Hahaha.Or really Jealous...
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Quoting 400. SLU:
I dare say that the T-numbers for 95L/pre-Chantal could already be closing in on T2.5.

Circulation looks to be heading slightly North of due west gaining some latitude. We may see it detach itself sometime Sunday.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 386. MississippiWx:


Yeah, ok. It's only spinning like a top.



He is just MAD that TW in the CATL is better organized and garnering more attention than the system he/she said a few days ago could be like Audrey in the GOM lol
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2013, the Year of the Warming awakening globally...or Post 400ppm Co2.


Earth 2.0
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Quoting 399. nrtiwlnvragn:
HWRF likes 95L much more than GFDL


HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -66.20 LAT: 18.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.00




Yeah and over me.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
Quoting 254. SomeRandomTexan:




Hey Baha! Long time... been just lurking a lot as of late.
I feel ya, bro... I had a few weeks in there where I wasn't lurking in the blog... more like nodding off while trying to read a few charts... lol..

Anyway, looks to be an interesting season one way or another, so I guess I will see u around...
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92L would be so proud.Hahaha.
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Quoting 403. unknowncomic:
I think we can rule out fish for 95L. BOC would be nerve racking with that hot H2O there.



95L wont be a fish storm
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Quoting 393. Drakoen:
First really impressive wave of the season, that actually has a chance. Satellite loops shows it has a decent lower to mid level circulation. Water vapor imagery shows a good amount of moisture which is associated with the ITCZ which is fine for now or else there would be no 95L.


Yeah, the ITCZ is its friend for now. If it can hang around it the next couple of days, it should be able to avoid the worst of the SAL to the north.
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AL942013 - INVEST

2km Natural Color Imagery

Green Estimated

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Quoting 383. MississippiWx:
Dry air won't be a big enemy in the short term, at least.

700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 64 62 63 60 61 58 58 59 59 62
MLC said earlier that the SAL wont be a big problem. IMO Its bringing up moisture from the ITCZ and and have a decent anticyclonic flow keeping it in a good moisture bubble. Vorticity is elongated but the satellite suggest it has great outflow on the south, west, and developing some on the eastern side to prevent dry air from being entrained into the circulation that why it has a good shot at developing before the Lesser Antilles but after it leaves the ITCZ.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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