A Gulf of Mexico and an Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (designated 94L by NHC on Friday) is over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is headed north towards the Texas/Louisiana coast at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that has been steadily growing this morning. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, since Friday, and the lower wind shear is likely responsible for the increase in thunderstorm activity. A trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into the west side of 94L, interfering with development. The disturbance should move inland by Sunday morning, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3" along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop, and the disturbance has only a day over water with marginal conditions for development. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 1. The Saturday morning NHC Tropical Weather Outlook shows two "Invests" worth watching: 94L over the Gulf of Mexico (area 1), and 95L over the Eastern Atlantic (area 2.) Both were given 20% chances of developing by Monday. Image credit: NHC.

Cape Verdes tropical wave 95L
As we approach mid-July, it's time to begin turning our attention to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. We have our first such system worthy of attention today, a tropical wave designated 95L over the Eastern Atlantic near 8°N 33°W, about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that is showing a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28°C. The 8 am EDT Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that 95L would encounter cooler waters of 27.5°C over the weekend as it headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate though Monday, which may allow for some additional organization. However, 95L is embedded in a very large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and July African waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL. The disturbance could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. A band a strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream is expected to be over the northern islands at that time, and if 95L has penetrated as far north as 15°N latitude by that time, it will have to face very high wind shear of 30+ knots. But if 95L stays farther to the south, wind shear should be lower, giving the storm a better chance of development. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 95L taken at approximately 11 am EDT Saturday, July 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. The models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation, and there is only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the southwestern coast of Mexico, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon. Erick will bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Southwest Mexico, but the core of the storm is currently expected to remain just offshore. Erick will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, when it will pass just south of Baja.

Cool San Francisco time-lapse fog video
Videographer Simon Christen has created a spectacular 4-minute time-lapse video of fog rushing in past the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco. He writes: ""Adrift" is a love letter to the fog of the San Francisco Bay Area. I chased it for over two years to capture the magical interaction between the soft mist, the ridges of the California coast and the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This is where “Adrift” was born. The weather conditions have to be just right for the fog to glide over the hills and under the bridge. I developed a system for trying to guess when to make the drive out to shoot, which involved checking the weather forecast, satellite images and webcams multiple times a day. For about 2 years, if the weather looked promising, I would set my alarm to 5am, recheck the webcams, and then set off on the 45-minute drive to the Marin Headlands. I spent many mornings hiking in the dark to only find that the fog was too high, too low, or already gone by the time I got there. Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special. Adrift is a collection of my favorite shots from these excursions into the ridges of the Marin Headlands."


Video 1. Adrift from Simon Christen on Vimeo.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 645. Tazmanian:
say good night too 95L by the way is that a eye trying too fourm? starting too lose day light on 95L


Link





Nope not in the least but there some more convection trying to pop up.
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Quoting 651. Hurricanes305:


So like I said it may be a pilot error
At this point I do not think the passengers care whom was at fault...That will come later
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Quoting 638. washingtonian115:
See this is why I hate planes.The only time I got on one was when I was in the military for 3 years.Haven't been on one for 20 years.
Careful, might reveal your age.
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Quoting 647. SLU:
It looks like the pilot landed the place too early.


So like I said it may be a pilot error
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odd the atcf has yet too update 94L why evere thing else have been update so am wounder if 94L has been drop
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Quoting 643. nigel20:

That's good to know.

Hey storm! I saw a few storms moving over Grand Cayman...what's the weather like at the moment.


Hi. Overcast to cloudy in some areas, sun shining bright in other areas, kinda concerned about 95L , it's low and i think it will be a Caribbean cruiser, looking it at brings back unpleasant memories of Ivan 04 :(
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Quoting 645. Tazmanian:
say good night too 95L by the way is that a eye trying too fourm? starting too lose day light on 95L


Link



lol no don't be silly
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647. SLU
It looks like the pilot landed the plane too early.
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Quoting 622. Tazmanian:




but its off topic
Taz.Yes it is off topic......But there is a time we have to think about fellow humanity, and this is one of them...Awaiting my poof!!
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say good night too 95L by the way is that a eye trying too fourm? starting too lose day light on 95L


Link



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Quoting 640. Astrometeor:


Fire officials are looking for the "black box" as seen from the police line they began starting at the waterway right before the airport where the debris initially begins. The trail of debris is interesting because it seems the plane swerved across the runaway twice before the dirt stopped it.

But, I suppose Taz wants us to move on.


That may mean it was an pilot error
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Quoting 636. stormpetrol:
I saw a tweet that all 290 passengers +1 infant +12 crew members have all been accounted for( according to fire scanner) #SFOCrash hopefully it is accurate.

That's good to know.

Hey storm! I saw a few storms moving over Grand Cayman...what's the weather like at the moment.
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Quoting 627. seflagamma:
Good afternoon Everyone,

I see some familiar handles here Grothar, BahaH, P'Doug, Pat, Schaser & Hydrus and a few others.


Most of you I don't know so nice to meet you...


I guess I will be coming here a little more often in the next few weeks. I guess it is time for the tropics to "heat up and get active"

Thanks for all the info you are providing...

and as for the plane crash, God Bless those on the plane.. not sure how many survived at this point... I don't know; have not really been in front of a TV.


Carry On with your great posts, comments and graphics... with 94L and 95L out there a lot to talk about for a few days.

Gamma/Gams


And it is nice to see Taz here again.. and I think I saw a few more on the prev pages..



Hey, Gamma, nice to see you pop back in.
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Quoting 624. Patrap:
Seems the 777 Lost the Tail assembly at or very near Touchdown then well, the Rudder and elevators ..

Thats a bad way to fly.


Fire officials are looking for the "black box" as seen from the police line they began starting at the waterway right before the airport where the debris initially begins. The trail of debris is interesting because it seems the plane swerved across the runaway twice before the dirt stopped it.

But, I suppose Taz wants us to move on.
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Quoting 630. hydrus:
The 777 looks pretty bad guys..Prayers to those on board.

Yes indeed.
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See this is why I hate planes.The only time I got on one was when I was in the military for 3 years.Haven't been on one for 20 years.
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Quoting 621. unknowncomic:
The 777 is more important now.


No need to get antsy just hope that everyone is alright
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I saw a tweet that all 290 passengers +1 infant +12 crew members have all been accounted for( according to fire scanner) #SFOCrash hopefully it is accurate.
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If it lost the tail assembly the cause may be improper decent rate. If they hit the grounding descending too quickly the initial impact would tear off the tail assembly first split the cabin and likely knock the wings off.

Basically you "break the back" of the aircraft. Its happened before in the past.

We will have to see, the alternative is that a 777 just fell to pieces which is very unsavory.
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can we all get back on topic plzs of 95L and 94L this what blog topic says not the Boeing 777 if you all want too take about the Boeing 777 take it in two your own blogs all so by talking about the Boeing 777 you all are being off topic of the blog topic wish is 94 and 95L
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Note the Slides on the Port side of the Aircraft, a lot of the Main Compartment seems to have escaped and 2 Bus Loads were seen en route to the terminal.



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Quoting 621. unknowncomic:
The 777 is more important now.


What are you talking about? Its still developing so no one knows the all the info yet but I just hope everyone is safe.
come on dude.
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Quoting 624. Patrap:
Seems the 777 Lost the Tail assembly at or very near Touchdown then well, the Rudder and elevators ..

Thats a bad way to fly.
And they said the weather was tranquil at the time. My first thought was there might have been fog from the marine layer in the area.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8797
The 777 looks pretty bad guys..Prayers to those on board.
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Well thats not good. Wonder what would cause a triple 7 to have a failure like that. Hopefully no injuries or deaths on that but we will have to see. And hopefully they can find the root cause, a failure like that is a very serious issue.

Meanwhile 95L looking more wrapped up as the minutes go by. Maybe a TD by tonight. Link
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Quoting 620. twistedfolks:
95L will either fall apart because of dust or shear in a few days . or recurve out to sea or go way way south into mexico




poof you go
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Good afternoon Everyone,

I see some familiar handles here Grothar, BahaH, P'Doug, Pat, Schaser & Hydrus and a few others.


Most of you I don't know so nice to meet you...


I guess I will be coming here a little more often in the next few weeks. I guess it is time for the tropics to "heat up and get active"

Thanks for all the info you are providing...

and as for the plane crash, God Bless those on the plane.. not sure how many survived at this point... I don't know; have not really been in front of a TV.


Carry On with your great posts, comments and graphics... with 94L and 95L out there a lot to talk about for a few days.

Gamma/Gams


And it is nice to see Taz here again.. and I think I saw a few more on the prev pages..
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Quoting 532. Hurricanes305:


12z CMC has an odd path similar to my thinking with the HWRF but have it going west further then a hard right hook into Tampa.
Regardless of the storm, I think the CMC likes Tampa...

Quoting 543. nigel20:

Hey Baha!

Yeah...especially in the development stage, but they tend to have less impact on stronger systems.
Hey, nige... not quite convinced this won't die the death just before / after the Lesser Antilles, but it's a good case study. I agree w/ Drak... and Taz as well... in about 5-7 days as we see it approaching that area W of u, we could start seeing some fireworks. Meanwhile, it only has to hold together.

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Quoting 570. Walshy:


A week. This blog is going to go crazy.


I dont think this will make it past 75W without making a tirn north. I will have to struggle a lot and stay weak. I never found out what the 12z Euro was saying people stop posting it
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Seems the 777 Lost the Tail assembly at or very near Touchdown then well, the Rudder and elevators ..

Thats a bad way to fly.
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i noteded on the atcf site that all the updates are in other then 94L i think 94L is being ready too be drop
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Quoting 621. unknowncomic:
The 777 is more important now.




but its off topic
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Quoting 615. Hurricanes305:


Oh! still developing hopefully everyone on board is safe.
The 777 is more important now.
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Quoting 618. hurricanes2018:
that is bad news I do not wanted any hurricane coming here in the northeast I had hurricane sandy last year.


This is why I dont compare storms. Based on potential track it could be something similar to Ivan. But thats wayyy out there just hang tight on track it.
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Quoting 608. Ricki13th:
If there is a past system that I would compare it to is IVAN best on potential track. On the Euro it shows the High a bit weaker and 95L a bit more north than the GFS and CMC.
that is bad news I do not wanted any hurricane coming here in the northeast I had hurricane sandy last year.
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Quoting 609. 7544:
does anyone think that ull moving west could become alive in the bahamas tia

95l is looking good at this hour .


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Quoting 604. Patrap:
The 777 lost both wings after touchdown, then cartwheeled to a stop..




Still has both wings attached, missing one jet engine and the tail wing/rudder. Ceiling is burnt like a crisp.
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Quoting 610. Grothar:
LInk to the crash




Link


Oh! still developing hopefully everyone on board is safe.
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Quoting 593. MississippiWx:
It really does no good to make track comparisons to past storms right now. We've had 2 sets of model runs at this point, with most models not even developing it into a tropical cyclone. Comparing it to past major hurricanes and scenarios those major hurricanes had is laughable. 95L by no means has an easy road ahead of it as it will more than likely encounter high shear at some point.
Yep...Forecasting an actual storm is much easier than forecasting a blob.
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Quoting 609. 7544:
does anyone think that ull moving west could become alive in the bahamas tia

95l is looking good at this hour .
Katrina started out in a similar situation east of Florida..but that was in late August.
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Quoting 609. 7544:
does anyone think that ull moving west could become alive in the bahamas tia

95l is looking good at this hour .


The ULL is not doing anything much to work its way down to the surface and it does not have time to just more showers for S. Florida. 95L looking good but I think the NHC is a bit conservative at only 30%
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Flight 214 from S. Korea went down in San Francisco
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
LInk to the crash




Link
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609. 7544
does anyone think that ull moving west could become alive in the bahamas tia

95l is looking good at this hour .
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If there is a past system that I would compare it to is IVAN best on potential track. On the Euro it shows the High a bit weaker and 95L a bit more north than the GFS and CMC.
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Quoting 594. TylerStanfield:

The exact set-up were in for this year, im afraid. Quickly intensifying, high latitude cape verde storms will escape through the weakness, but the lower latitude and slower intensifying system will get shoved back under the next ridge and will take a ride through the Caribbean or Greater Antilles. Not a good set up for Peak of the season.

Yeah, especially for the Caribbean and central America.
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Quoting 588. GTstormChaserCaleb:
ECMWF not doing much with 95L at 72 hrs. it tracks towards the Lesser Antilles, but one thing to note look at the orientation of the high.





The High is weaker than the GFS/CMC.
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The 777 Crash




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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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