A Gulf of Mexico and an Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (designated 94L by NHC on Friday) is over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is headed north towards the Texas/Louisiana coast at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that has been steadily growing this morning. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, since Friday, and the lower wind shear is likely responsible for the increase in thunderstorm activity. A trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into the west side of 94L, interfering with development. The disturbance should move inland by Sunday morning, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3" along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop, and the disturbance has only a day over water with marginal conditions for development. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 1. The Saturday morning NHC Tropical Weather Outlook shows two "Invests" worth watching: 94L over the Gulf of Mexico (area 1), and 95L over the Eastern Atlantic (area 2.) Both were given 20% chances of developing by Monday. Image credit: NHC.

Cape Verdes tropical wave 95L
As we approach mid-July, it's time to begin turning our attention to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. We have our first such system worthy of attention today, a tropical wave designated 95L over the Eastern Atlantic near 8°N 33°W, about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that is showing a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28°C. The 8 am EDT Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that 95L would encounter cooler waters of 27.5°C over the weekend as it headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate though Monday, which may allow for some additional organization. However, 95L is embedded in a very large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and July African waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL. The disturbance could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. A band a strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream is expected to be over the northern islands at that time, and if 95L has penetrated as far north as 15°N latitude by that time, it will have to face very high wind shear of 30+ knots. But if 95L stays farther to the south, wind shear should be lower, giving the storm a better chance of development. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 95L taken at approximately 11 am EDT Saturday, July 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. The models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation, and there is only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the southwestern coast of Mexico, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon. Erick will bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Southwest Mexico, but the core of the storm is currently expected to remain just offshore. Erick will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, when it will pass just south of Baja.

Cool San Francisco time-lapse fog video
Videographer Simon Christen has created a spectacular 4-minute time-lapse video of fog rushing in past the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco. He writes: ""Adrift" is a love letter to the fog of the San Francisco Bay Area. I chased it for over two years to capture the magical interaction between the soft mist, the ridges of the California coast and the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This is where “Adrift” was born. The weather conditions have to be just right for the fog to glide over the hills and under the bridge. I developed a system for trying to guess when to make the drive out to shoot, which involved checking the weather forecast, satellite images and webcams multiple times a day. For about 2 years, if the weather looked promising, I would set my alarm to 5am, recheck the webcams, and then set off on the 45-minute drive to the Marin Headlands. I spent many mornings hiking in the dark to only find that the fog was too high, too low, or already gone by the time I got there. Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special. Adrift is a collection of my favorite shots from these excursions into the ridges of the Marin Headlands."


Video 1. Adrift from Simon Christen on Vimeo.

Jeff Masters

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Kermit most likely flying one of those Pollution Data Flights.


SENEX 16


Non-Tasked Missions in 2013

Date Mission Identifier Agency Aircraft Product(s) Map
07/06 Senex16 NOAA N42RF URNT15
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Quoting 785. sar2401:

Something else went wrong. According to the news story, the aircraft was supposed to land on 28L. I've landed at SFO many times, and, from the pictures I've seen, that wasn't 28L. Looks like he came in on 28R and hit something on the runway. I haven't looked up the NOTAM's yet to see if 28R was closed due to obstructions.

The plane landed short on 28L. That may not have been the assigned runwway, though there were no extant NOTAMS at SFO affecting 28R at the time of the crash, so I don't know why they would have been trying for elsewhere. The primary question: why did it land short? Fuel? Pilot error? Some off mechanical problem? Weather was VFR down to the deck, so it's difficult to imagine that had anything to do with it...
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Quoting 785. sar2401:

Something else went wrong. According to the news story, the aircraft was supposed to land on 28L. I've landed at SFO many times, and, from the pictures I've seen, that wasn't 28L. Looks like he came in on 28R and hit something on the runway. I haven't looked up the NOTAM's yet to see if 28R was closed due to obstructions.



Quoting 790. TampaCat5:

From the video it definitely was attempting to land on 28L.


Sorry, sar, but the video from a helicopter clearly showed the runway marked as 28L with debris strewn all over it.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 98 Comments: 9888
Quoting 756. TampaCat5:

sorry, just hopped on the blog, but where did you see that the plane was away from the centerline?
Quoting 789. stormchaser19:
CMC and 95L july 14


Ehhh I have an idea, when the time comes, us bloggers should collectively together face east and proceed to inhale and then exhale powerfully, that might be enough to save the day. (Sarcasm Flag: Barbarian)
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Quoting 799. whitewabit:
Hey Skye you still around ?? do you know why Kermit was flying today ?? its mission ??
who's Kermit.
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799. whitewabit (Mod)
Hey Skye you still around ?? do you know why Kermit was flying today ?? its mission ??
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Quoting 794. washingtonian115:
Well..there goes Tampa..nice knowing them.Anywho with all jokes aside the CMC finally has a storm to latch on and not a ghost one that it develops almost out of the blue.


That scenario will likely change a lot before it definite. But it seems like Bahamas/Florida/Gulf system. That funny because they are in the bulls-eye for something. So I guess that is going to be the norm for this year.
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797. FOREX
Quoting 793. ackee:
I think if 95L slow down and take a more southerly track condition would be ripe for it to possible become the first hurricane of the seasons. A more northerly tack would be the best case scenario shear and condition or hostile for further development


Sure seems like it is locked in westward right now.
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Latest update:
-- The National Transportation Safety Board has scheduled a news conference for 5:30 p.m. ET Saturday with NTSB Chairwoman Deborah Hersman to discuss the crash landing of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 at San Francisco International Airport, the agency said. The news conference will take place in Washington prior to NTSB investigators' departure for California.
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Quoting Patrap:
Published on Apr 10, 2013

TACA Flight 110 May 24, 1988


A severe thunderstorm with Hail forced a Boeing 737 to attempt an emergency landing on the most unlikely, impossible place: a New Orleans levee.

The engines were lost due to hail ingestion.


Actually, the engines flamed out due to ingestion of heavy rain. Boeing made modifications to 737 engines after this incident to prevent the same kind of stall again.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13334
Quoting 789. stormchaser19:
CMC and 95L july 14
Well..there goes Tampa..nice knowing them.Anywho with all jokes aside the CMC finally has a storm to latch on and not a ghost one that it develops almost out of the blue.
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793. ackee
I think if 95L slow down and take a more southerly track condition would be ripe for it to possible become the first hurricane of the seasons. A more northerly tack would be the best case scenario shear and condition or hostile for further development
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Quoting 782. Ricki13th:
Interesting to see what happens at 8pm with 95L. Which continues to organize. Firing some new convection over the LLC. Glad to hear that most folks are doing fine on triple 7 have a great evening. Be back at 8pm


Yea have a good evening! But they are a reported 2 dead glad that there aren't more causalities. 95L may be at 40% when you come back. The New 18z intensity models are quite bullish some now predicting a Hurricane in 72 hours. The Ships continues to be the most practical.
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He Hit the Jetty, and was obviously Short.



First rule of Landing on a concrete runway, "always land long, never short".

Like Neil Did in '69....
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Quoting 785. sar2401:

Something else went wrong. According to the news story, the aircraft was supposed to land on 28L. I've landed at SFO many times, and, from the pictures I've seen, that wasn't 28L. Loks like he came in on 28R and hit something on the runway. I haven't looked up the NOTAM's yet to see if 28R was closed due to obstructions.


From the video it definitely was attempting to land on 28L.
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CMC and 95L july 14
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AL952013 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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Quoting 782. Ricki13th:
Interesting to see what happens at 8pm with 95L. Which continues to organize. Firing some new convection over the LLC. Glad to hear that most folks are doing fine on triple 7 have a great evening. Be back at 8pm
Maybe up to 40-60 %.
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786. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 783. Tribucanes:
Two dead and 61 injured in today's crash. Praying for their families, very sad.


From the looks of the plane .. a lot of people were very lucky today to walk away from it !!
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Quoting Patrap:
The Tail Popped off either at the Rock Jetty, or at the threshold as the rudder, and elevators are there.

He was short maybe, or had a catastrophic Tail Loss.

Hard to stay on center without a rudder, and pitch was lost as well..


Something else went wrong. According to the news story, the aircraft was supposed to land on 28L. I've landed at SFO many times, and, from the pictures I've seen, that wasn't 28L. Looks like he came in on 28R and hit something on the runway. I haven't looked up the NOTAM's yet to see if 28R was closed due to obstructions.

Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13334
Quoting 775. Jedkins01:


Unfortunately, this seems reasonable...


Agree. Florida is due to be hit again. Its been way too long since a major crossed us. Tampa, Miami, Orlando, etc need to all look out.
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Two dead and 61 injured in today's crash. Praying for their families, very sad.
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Interesting to see what happens at 8pm with 95L. Which continues to organize. Firing some new convection over the LLC. Glad to hear that most folks are doing fine on triple 7 have a great evening. Be back at 8pm
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Hurricane Project Phoenix Tampa Bay: Link
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Sometimes the human can be the judge!!!this is the time.
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Wow 95L getting stronger before it was a 1012mb low now it's a 1009mb low

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11193
Yeah Caleb, I almost threw Tampa/St. Pete in. Love the area, my Grandparents lived there and I use to visit every summer. Fatality projections of a major hitting the area are scary. Large populations of poor and elderly make any major landing there a big killer. Lot of the elderly in Tampa/St.Pete are not overly affluent either. One of the largest populations of lower income elderly in the state. As we saw in Katrina, the elderly who were physically or financially unable to leave made up a huge % of the dead.
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776. FOREX
Quoting 772. washingtonian115:
The NHC is holding out on the atlnatic.


95 is moving so fast it won't be in the dry air very long. Should be interesting to see how this progresses.
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Quoting 542. Drakoen:
I think we will be seeing a lot of these hard right curves throughout the season opening up Florida and the Gulf of Mexico as the subtropical ridge holds firm across the tropical atlantic.


Unfortunately, this seems reasonable...
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Published on Apr 10, 2013

TACA Flight 110 May 24, 1988


A severe thunderstorm with Hail forced a Boeing 737 to attempt an emergency landing on the most unlikely, impossible place: a New Orleans levee.

The engines were lost due to hail ingestion.

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Quoting 761. Patrap:
The Tail Popped off either at the Rock Jetty, or at the threshold as the rudder, and elevators are there.

He was short maybe, or had a catastrophic Tail Loss.

Hard to stay on center without a rudder, and pitch was lost as well..


Thanks, that answers my question.
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The NHC is holding out on the atlnatic.
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Tropical Depression DALILA
2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 6
Location: 17.0°N 113.1°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
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Quoting seflagamma:




Doc, My Leo/Snake/Bro !!!!

So happy to see your smiling handle in this blog today!

We have a super duper big one coming up soon if you know what I mean! YIKES!!!!


Well howdy Leo/Snake/Sister Gams!
Thanks, great to see ya on as well today...
Oh lol, yeah it's a biggie alright, but I'm downplaying that one too, almost sounds like a doom-cast! Sheeeesh, we're too young to really be that old, right?
;)

Best to ya!
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Quoting 756. TampaCat5:

sorry, just hopped on the blog, but where did you see that the plane was away from the centerline?

The plane made initial contact on the approach to the runway, just to the right of the centerline.
According to witnesses phoning in reports to CNN, the tail of the plane made contact at the outside marker short of the runway. The tail broke off and the nose dropped, the plane spun about the vertical axis remaining upright and went off into the grass apparently losing an engine.

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Quoting Skyepony:


The servers & all have been in San Francisco since atleast 2005. TWC moved in after the purchase.

Ah, my mistake then. I thought the relocation to San Francisco took place afte the TWC buy out.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13334

HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERICK
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BANDING EYE
FEATURE HAS APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
WHILE A MID-LEVEL EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS
ADT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A STEADY 310/08 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
ERICK MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER
THAT...HOWEVER...THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF AND UKMET MODELS TAKING ERICK OVER
OR CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...
AND NAVGEM MODELS TAKE A WEAKENING ERICK MORE WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS.
GIVEN THAT ERICK IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SUB-23C SSTS AFTER 48 HOURS
AND LIKELY BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE WEAKER AND WESTWARD SOLUTION OF THE GFS MODEL. ALTHOUGH
THE FORECAST TRACK STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF ERICK OFFSHORE...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER AND
STRONGER WINDS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.

ERICK COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THE NEARBY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID STRENGTHENING FROM
OCCURRING. BY 36 HOURS... HOWEVER...SHARPLY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE STEADY
IF NOT RAPID WEAKENING DESPITE THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT ERICK WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS IVCN AND ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.1N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.2N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 23.8N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1800Z 24.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z 24.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Quoting 756. TampaCat5:

sorry, just hopped on the blog, but where did you see that the plane was away from the centerline?


You can tell where the plane landed by looking at where the debris line is in relation to the runway. The debris marks the center of the body, and it is around 50% edged to the right side of the airstrip.

I still have the video from Fox News, a helicopter that has been circling the area since the crash.

Heli-video

News Update: A plane awaiting take-off on runway 28L has been ordered to taxi back to the airport.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 98 Comments: 9888
Quoting 758. Tribucanes:
South Florida being one of the hottest spots for Hurricanes in the country, has really been unscathed for a long time now. Miami, particularly has been dodging the big ones for a shocking time frame. Population, surge, and many other factors make Miami one of our countries softest Targets. Outside of a major hitting NYC, I can't think of another city where costs and losses would be greater. Not saying Doom is coming this year, but the setup makes it more likely than we've seen in a long time. It's going to happen at some point, here's to hoping it's not this year.
I talked about Miami earlier this year and how the set-up looks ominous.
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Hi Baha. I'm ok, thanks. I'm on holidays right now and that allows me some time back on the blog after two very busy months, just right in time when the Atlantic starts upping the game. How are you doing? I'm enjoying good weather in Germany, nothing exciting though ;-)
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Quoting 758. Tribucanes:
South Florida being one of the hottest spots for Hurricanes in the country, has really been unscathed for a long time now. Miami, particularly has been dodging the big ones for a shocking time frame. Population, surge, and many other factors make Miami one of our countries softest Targets. Outside of a major hitting NYC, I can't think of another city where costs and losses would be greater. Not saying Doom is coming this year, but the setup makes it more likely than we've seen in a long time. It's going to happen at some point, here's to hoping it's not this year.
Tampa Bay is likely 3rd on that list. Not only the economic losses would be great around here due to tourism, but we also have Fertilizer and other Chemical Plants that would cause an environmental disaster.
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Quoting 748. Skyepony:


The ULL has ~five days til it's to LA. It's moving quick.

12ZCMC has gone with doom for west FL next weekend..this is from a 95L reprise that gets out of hand after it crosses Cuba. Click pic for loop.


Hmm. I'll be in west Florida then, in Navarre, just down the road from Fort Walton Beach where my oldest son is stationed. Guess if it were to happen, I'd be on my way back home again. He's on the hurricane team' there. They seem to like to have Louisiana boys on teams like that, I guess they figure they have the experience. I liked it better when if there was a hurricane there he would get to evacuate to home. Oh well, I might end up with a house full of people then. I've opened my house up to any evacuees and/or their families who need a place to go. With Post here, they still have anything military they might need. I wonder if my hiatus will follow me to Florida and protect them? *G*
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The Tail Popped off either at the Rock Jetty, or at the threshold as the rudder, and elevators are there.

He was short maybe, or had a catastrophic Tail Loss.

Hard to stay on center without a rudder, and pitch was lost as well..

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Thanks Levi. The direct link works.

Good update too, thanks.
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Quoting 758. Tribucanes:
South Florida being one of the hottest spots for Hurricanes in the country, has really been unscathed for a long time now. Miami, particularly has been dodging the big ones for a shocking time frame. Population, surge, and many other factors make Miami one of our countries softest Targets. Outside of a major hitting NYC, I can't think of another city where costs and losses would be greater. Not saying Doom is coming this year, but the setup makes it more likely than we've seen in a long time. It's going to happen at some point, here's to hoping it's not this year.


We have not been hit since Wilma and it was a backdoor storm for us...Here in Broward/Palm Beach counties got Wilma worse than Miami-Dade county.


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South Florida being one of the hottest spots for Hurricanes in the country, has really been unscathed for a long time now. Miami, particularly has been dodging the big ones for a shocking time frame. Population, surge, and many other factors make Miami one of our countries softest Targets. Outside of a major hitting NYC, I can't think of another city where costs and losses would be greater. Not saying Doom is coming this year, but the setup makes it more likely than we've seen in a long time. It's going to happen at some point, here's to hoping it's not this year.
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Quoting 698. Neapolitan:
Thanks. Additional note: one has to winder why the plane was so far right of the centerline. It may not look like much, but 40 or 50 feet is a substantial distance.

On another note: bit of a coincidence that the current blog entry features a video shot in San Francisco, no?

sorry, just hopped on the blog, but where did you see that the plane was away from the centerline?
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Quoting 750. taistelutipu:
thanks for the video, Levi. I had no problem with it, using Precise and FF. I agree with the overall verdict, nothing notable to develop over the next week or so, so rain will be the only major threat, if at all. Will be waiting for mid-July and more waves.
Hey, Tais... how are you doing?
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NTSB briefing on crash scheduled for 1730 EDT.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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