A Gulf of Mexico and an Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (designated 94L by NHC on Friday) is over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is headed north towards the Texas/Louisiana coast at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that has been steadily growing this morning. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, since Friday, and the lower wind shear is likely responsible for the increase in thunderstorm activity. A trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into the west side of 94L, interfering with development. The disturbance should move inland by Sunday morning, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3" along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop, and the disturbance has only a day over water with marginal conditions for development. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 1. The Saturday morning NHC Tropical Weather Outlook shows two "Invests" worth watching: 94L over the Gulf of Mexico (area 1), and 95L over the Eastern Atlantic (area 2.) Both were given 20% chances of developing by Monday. Image credit: NHC.

Cape Verdes tropical wave 95L
As we approach mid-July, it's time to begin turning our attention to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. We have our first such system worthy of attention today, a tropical wave designated 95L over the Eastern Atlantic near 8°N 33°W, about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that is showing a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28°C. The 8 am EDT Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that 95L would encounter cooler waters of 27.5°C over the weekend as it headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate though Monday, which may allow for some additional organization. However, 95L is embedded in a very large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and July African waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL. The disturbance could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. A band a strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream is expected to be over the northern islands at that time, and if 95L has penetrated as far north as 15°N latitude by that time, it will have to face very high wind shear of 30+ knots. But if 95L stays farther to the south, wind shear should be lower, giving the storm a better chance of development. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 95L taken at approximately 11 am EDT Saturday, July 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. The models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation, and there is only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the southwestern coast of Mexico, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon. Erick will bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Southwest Mexico, but the core of the storm is currently expected to remain just offshore. Erick will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, when it will pass just south of Baja.

Cool San Francisco time-lapse fog video
Videographer Simon Christen has created a spectacular 4-minute time-lapse video of fog rushing in past the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco. He writes: ""Adrift" is a love letter to the fog of the San Francisco Bay Area. I chased it for over two years to capture the magical interaction between the soft mist, the ridges of the California coast and the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This is where “Adrift” was born. The weather conditions have to be just right for the fog to glide over the hills and under the bridge. I developed a system for trying to guess when to make the drive out to shoot, which involved checking the weather forecast, satellite images and webcams multiple times a day. For about 2 years, if the weather looked promising, I would set my alarm to 5am, recheck the webcams, and then set off on the 45-minute drive to the Marin Headlands. I spent many mornings hiking in the dark to only find that the fog was too high, too low, or already gone by the time I got there. Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special. Adrift is a collection of my favorite shots from these excursions into the ridges of the Marin Headlands."


Video 1. Adrift from Simon Christen on Vimeo.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1444. MississippiWx:


The comparisons to Ivan need to stop. Lol. Ivan was in September, the heart of hurricane season during a hyperactive season. While it's possible 95L could turn into something formidable eventually, it has very little model support for strengthening into much of anything for a while.
Agreed but good luck. Ever since IVAN every Cape Verde L and numerous waves that's come down the pike or anywhere near the same pike has been touted as IVAN part 2.
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Quoting 1446. Bluestorm5:
MissWx, Kori... Y U NO IN CHATROOM?


LOL - you guys had better report or you're gonna be in trouble :D
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Quoting 1448. Dakster:


Hebert's Box -- and I don't think it will be a Major Hurricane if it does go thru the box which is one of the conditions to make the box statistics.....

But, yes, I agree with your reasoning.

Thanks Dakster :o) and I forgot it had to be a Major while going through the Box.... :o)

Taco :o)
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1451. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07
9:00 AM JST July 7 2013
=============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marcus Island Waters (south of Minami Tori-shima)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 19.0N 151.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.0N 144.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
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1450. Gearsts
Another strong wave behind.
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1449. Levi32
Quoting 1438. caribbeantracker01:


levi i have one question please i am from the Caribbean and i must say that your tibets do a great deal in the past 3 hurricane season but when ever there is a storm threatening the islands its very difficult to get a proper synopsis on this i would appreciate this very much because i show your Tibet to my friends and they all agree that you may become the next max may field... thanks in advance


I try my best to communicate relevant information to countries near a storm, but I will pay extra attention to make sure I'm not leaving anything out for the Caribbean.
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1448. Dakster
Quoting 1442. taco2me61:
Look everyone,
If this "Invest" 95L goes through Hurberts Box then I will take a better look at it. But as it stands it keeps moving west, and yes Ivan was better organized with no SAL around..... Now that's just my thinking and of course I could be and sometimes wrong when I post something like this :o) Just saying

Taco :o)


Hebert's Box -- and I don't think it will be a Major Hurricane if it does go thru the box which is one of the conditions to make the box statistics.....

But, yes, I agree with your reasoning.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting 1444. MississippiWx:


The comparisons to Ivan need to stop. Lol. Ivan was in September, the heart of hurricane season during a hyperactive season. While it's possible 95L could turn into something formidable eventually, it has very little model support for strengthening into much of anything for a while.

Trust me I would not do that and agree with you 100%....
I'm a wait and see kind of Guy if you know what I mean :o)

Taco :o)
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MissWx, Kori... Y U NO IN CHATROOM?
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The 00z GFS throws whatever is left of 95L into Hispaniola by 96 hours

It does however start to get interested in a new wave by 84 hours
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Quoting 1442. taco2me61:
Look everyone,
If this "Invest" 95L goes through Hurberts Box then I will take a better look at it. But as it stands it keeps moving west, and yes Ivan was better organized with no SAL around..... Now that's just my thinking and of course I could be and sometimes wrong when I post something like this :o) Just saying

Taco :o)


The comparisons to Ivan need to stop. Lol. Ivan was in September, the heart of hurricane season during a hyperactive season. While it's possible 95L could turn into something formidable eventually, it has very little model support for strengthening into much of anything for a while.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
1443. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 1425. AussieStorm:
Surfer at Bondi Beach knocked unconcious by whale



Link

See the sky,,, BORING BLUE


That has to be an unusual occurrence .. Have never heard of that happening before ..
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Look everyone,
If this "Invest" 95L goes through Hurberts Box then I will take a better look at it. But as it stands it keeps moving west, and yes Ivan was better organized with no SAL around..... Now that's just my thinking and of course I could be and sometimes wrong when I post something like this :o) Just saying

Taco :o)
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1441. ncstorm
Good Read on Bertha's existence and why it it was able to become a east coast threat

Hurricane Bertha originated from a tropical wave which moved from Africa to the Atlantic on
July 1, 1996. A weak circulation was first detected on satellite imagery on July 3, centered about
575 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. The track of the
circulation center begins on July 5, when the circulation is believed to have reached the surface
and become a tropical depression in the central tropical Atlantic. This track is displayed in
Figure 1 and listed in Appendix B, Table 1.
Bertha followed a fairly smooth curved path around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical high pressure ridge. This ridge changed little during Bertha%u2019s existence, and a weak mid-level trough persisted in the western North Atlantic. For three days, the depression moved toward the west-northwest at the fast forward speed of 23 to 29 mph.

It strengthened to a hurricane with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 86 mph on July 8 as the center moved across the Leeward and Virgin Islands of the northeastern Caribbean. The center moved between
Antigua and Barbuda at 2 a.m. Atlantic Standard Time (AST) (0600 Coordinated Universal Time [UTC]) on July 8, across St. Barthelemy, Anguilla and St. Martin, just north of St. Thomas, and over the British Virgin Islands by 2 p.m. AST (1800 UTC). The track gradually turned northwestward on July 9 as maximum sustained winds reached 115 mph at 2 a.m. AST (0600 UTC). Bertha was centered 138 miles north of Puerto Rico at this
time but earlier passed within 35 miles of the island. Since the strongest winds were located in the
northeast quadrant of the hurricane, most of Puerto Rico experienced only tropical storm conditions. The exception is the Puerto Rican island of Culebra, where hurricane-force winds are believed to have occurred.
Moving northwestward at a slower forward speed of 17 to 23 mph, the center of Bertha moved parallel to the Bahama Islands, passing 45 to 70 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands, San Salvador, Eleuthera and the Abacos. Again, the strongest winds were located to the northeast of the center, but 75-mph sustained winds might have reached some of the above mentioned islands.
Continuing on its gradual turn, the track became north-northwestward on July 10 and 11 as the
center moved parallel to the coast of Florida and Georgia at a distance of 170 to 200 miles offshore. During this time, the forward speed slowed to about 9 mph. Moving northward and re-accelerating to a forward speed of 17 mph, Bertha made landfall at 4 p.m. EDT (2000 UTC) on July 12 on the coast of North Carolina. At landfall, Bertha was a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Scale (see Appendix A) as the center crossed the coast midway between Wrightsville and Topsail Beaches. The hurricane had been gradually weakening since its top speed of 115 mph on July 9 to 81 mph on July 11. Then, 12 hours before landfall, the estimated maximum 1-minute winds increased to 104 mph. Bertha quickly dropped below hurricane strength when it moved inland over eastern North Carolina. Bertha then moved northeastward along the U.S. east coast, producing 45 to 60 mph sustained winds over land from northern North Carolina to New England. Over the nearby Atlantic, 70 mph winds were the rule. Bertha was declared extratropical on July 14 when the center moved from the Maine coast to New Brunswick, Canada.
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Quoting 1430. Stormchaser2007:
12z ECMWF Ensembles were not excited at all about this one.

Out of 51 potential hits, only a few latched on.


That's not surprising. The ECMWF hardly ever is enthusiastic about a disturbance developing into a tropical cyclone south of 25N. Put it north of that latitude and the ECMWF swears it'll be a Category 4.
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Quoting 1431. washingtonian115:
Can someone explain post 1415.Thank you.


It just shows how strong a storm the ocean could sustain given optimal conditions for strengthening.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting 1426. Levi32:


People are harping too much on raw MDR SST anomalies.

Also, they used an image at the top of the article and wrote "Courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" under it, but the image is from AccuWeather. #Fail


levi i have one question please i am from the Caribbean and i must say that your tibets do a great deal in the past 3 hurricane season but when ever there is a storm threatening the islands its very difficult to get a proper synopsis on this i would appreciate this very much because i show your Tibet to my friends and they all agree that you may become the next max may field... thanks in advance
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Quoting 1426. Levi32:


People are harping too much on raw MDR SST anomalies.

Also, they used an image at the top of the article and wrote "Courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" under it, but the image is from AccuWeather. #Fail


I agree. Tropical cyclones will naturally form and gravitate toward regions of higher sea surface temperature anomalies, but they are not the be all end all. Anomalies are just that; anomalies. All that word means is a departure from a given average. It says nothing about warm the actual water temperatures are.

Tropical cyclones can and do form in regions of normal or below normal sea surface temperatures.
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Quoting 1426. Levi32:


People are harping too much on raw MDR SST anomalies.

Also, they used an image at the top of the article and wrote "Courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" under it, but the image is from AccuWeather. #Fail


Maybe TSR saw that and went down in numbers. But Phil Klotzbach talked about the cooler sst in MDR too. Here it is below.


If a cool pool of water northwest of Africa filters into the main tropical development region, it could potentially hamper storm formation, said Colorado State University climatologist Phil Klotzbach. Cooler waters also remain near the equator and in the western Atlantic.

"I'd say we're still on pace for an active season. But we're going to be watching those cool anomalies closely," he said. "We might have to lower our forecast [18 storms, nine hurricanes] in early August."
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1435. Patrap
Def a map o the Day

Sheeesh'



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127695
1434. Levi32
Quoting 1429. MississippiWx:


Why do you think the NHC keeps stating the conditions should gradually become more conducive for development over the next few days? It seems like they aren't taking into account trade winds as being a detriment to development. They also did that with Ernesto last year in the Caribbean and seemed perplexed when he didn't strengthen.

BTW, my dad just got back from Alaska. He was there for a week and had a blast. :-)


Glad to hear of another satisfied customer! :)

Yeah, NHC may be the all-star team, but every forecaster forgets something once in a while. I thought that's what happened with Ernesto last year, but I can't really judge. I've had my flops too. We'll see what happens here. The only way I see 95L remaining a closed circulation beyond tomorrow is if it develops into a TS before that time.

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1433. Patrap
Quoting 1423. KoritheMan:
It should be noted that there is some historical precedent for strong July Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. I can actually think of three within the last ten years; Dolly in 2008, Dennis in 2005, and Claudette in 2003.

They typically aren't the big monstrous systems we're used to seeing during peak season (with the exception of Dennis), but upper end Category 1's to low end Category 2 hurricanes are not obscenely rare if conditions are right.

Not that that says anything about 95L's potential future.


Cindy struck 8 years ago the 5th, and caused the biggest Blackout in Se La. since Betsy in 65 as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127695
Had problems with old computer so I got to download Paint.NET onto new computer and use my graphic I saved on Imgur. This is going to take awhile, but it'll get done.
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Can someone explain post 1415.Thank you.
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12z ECMWF Ensembles were not excited at all about this one.

Out of 51 potential hits, only a few latched on.

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Quoting 1419. Levi32:


Only while the low center on the wave axis is near the point of maximum gradient in zonal wind, which 95L currently is, but once it gets north of that point, it gets exponentially harder to close off.


Why do you think the NHC keeps stating the conditions should gradually become more conducive for development over the next few days? It seems like they aren't taking into account trade winds as being a detriment to development. They also did that with Ernesto last year in the Caribbean and seemed perplexed when he didn't strengthen.

BTW, my dad just got back from Alaska. He was there for a week and had a blast. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
1428. ncstorm
This is an excerpt from NOAA's assessment of 1996 Hurricane Bertha..found this interesting

NCEP Implementation
(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)
Finding 14
:
The Internet has become very popular, and the information available over
the Internet from NHC received very favorable comments. Naturally,
when the hurricane was close to land, access to the NHC Homepage was
difficult


NHC recommendation:

NHC should investigate the possibility of increasing their Internet
capabilities


What would yall do if you weren't able to hit that F5 button?
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Quoting 1416. wunderkidcayman:

Look at the water vapour loop none is entering 95L at tis time


True


but Saharan dust is maybe just a little bit not much once 95 L escapes and reaches 45 west things might become a little better based on model guidance they all seem to agree on a system forming near the islands as usual this may be a too close for comfort situation
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1426. Levi32
Quoting 1422. Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Levi, What do you think of this articule that was published in the Sun-Sentinal that downcast the season?

Link


People are harping too much on raw MDR SST anomalies.

Also, they used an image at the top of the article and wrote "Courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" under it, but the image is from AccuWeather. #Fail
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Surfer at Bondi Beach knocked unconcious by whale



Link

See the sky,,, BORING BLUE
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Quoting 1412. Tropicsweatherpr:


Really you see 95L developing much in a short period of time before it arrives at 60W? I will read your overnight blog that I am sure you will explain in detail all.


I think he was kidding, did you not see the smile?
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It should be noted that there is some historical precedent for strong July Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. I can actually think of three within the last ten years; Dolly in 2008, Dennis in 2005, and Claudette in 2003.

They typically aren't the big monstrous systems we're used to seeing during peak season (with the exception of Dennis), but upper end Category 1's to low end Category 2 hurricanes are not obscenely rare if conditions are right.

Not that that says anything about 95L's potential future.
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Hi Levi. What do you think of this articule that was published in the Sun-Sentinel that downcast the season?

Link
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Quoting 1402. wunderkidcayman:

Yep


Ok maybe it was a bit bigger and it was less than a degree higher by .1 but they are minor


Hurricane Ivan, tropical depression: 9.7N 27.6W
95L: 7/7 0Z Tropical Wave: 8.2N 36.4W

A bit more than 0.1 lat.

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Quoting nigel20:

Lol...Hey Aussie!
How's the weather in your neck of the woods?

It's rather boring weather here.... Blue Blue Blue and more Blue skies.
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1419. Levi32
Quoting 1404. Stormchaser2007:
This is from a professional meteorologist on another forum

"Another consideration...(preaching to the choir here to some degree). Stronger trade flow versus weaker equatorward winds are the most ideal environmental flow for t-waves to close off."

Explanation here



Only while the low center on the wave axis is near the point of maximum gradient in zonal wind, which 95L currently is, but once it gets north of that point, it gets exponentially harder to close off.
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1418. beell
Quoting 1389. will40:


unless they have changed it this year
they wont fly until it reaches at least 55W


I guess they did change the OP. But not by much.

NHOP 2013

5.5.1.3.1
Up to four 6-hourly fixes per day when a storm is within 500 nm of landfall and west of 52.5°W in the Atlantic.
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Quoting 1412. Tropicsweatherpr:


Really you see 95L developing much in a short period of time before it arrives at 60W? I will read your overigt blog that I am sure you will explain in detail all.


Yeah dude. I've been work at all day. Let me take some time to analyze things before I get back to you on that.

Wouldn't want to give you a half-assed answer.
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Quoting 1407. caribbeantracker01:
dry air seems to be entering 95 L however because its D min i would say its temporary

Look at the water vapour loop none is entering 95L at tis time
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18z GFS shows 95L reaching the GOM with some unholy wind potential just waiting for it.



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Quoting 1391. sar2401:

Or that graphic is nuts. :-) I can see some convection creeping into the BOC from Erick, as it's done for the past couple of days, but that doesn't deserve to be an invest.


Oh, please, Sir, nobody's looking for an invest... just rain..... if we will be denied, again, we'll just get over it as we have almost everyday for the last three years.
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1413. nigel20
Quoting 1410. AussieStorm:

I had a gf and her name was Chantal, she was a beast. I don't know what I was thinking.

Lol...Hey Aussie!
How's the weather in your neck of the woods?
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Quoting 1406. KoritheMan:


Afraid not, my boy. It's going to be Puerto Rico's first major hurricane since Georges in 1998.

Run.

:D


Really you see 95L developing much in a short period of time before it arrives at 60W? I will read your overnight blog that I am sure you will explain in detail all.
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Quoting 1407. caribbeantracker01:
dry air seems to be entering 95 L however because its D min i would say its temporary

Yeah maybe a few hours ago but not a problem anymore
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I keep saying Chantal is going to be a beast.

I had a gf and her name was Chantal, she was a beast. I don't know what I was thinking.
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1409. zillaTX
Where for art thou 94L? I need some rain man!
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1408. Gearsts
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dry air seems to be entering 95 L however because its D min i would say its temporary
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Quoting 1401. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Kori. But not before it reach the Eastern Caribbean islands right?


Afraid not, my boy. It's going to be Puerto Rico's first major hurricane since Georges in 1998.

Run.

:D
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Quoting 1401. Tropicsweatherpr:


But not before it reach the Eastern Caribbean islands right?

Yeah I agree 95L may become a beast but not till after it crosses the E Carib islands just after that maybe
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This is from a professional meteorologist on another forum

"Another consideration...(preaching to the choir here to some degree). Stronger trade flow versus weaker equatorward winds are the most ideal environmental flow for t-waves to close off."

Explanation here

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.