A Gulf of Mexico and an Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (designated 94L by NHC on Friday) is over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is headed north towards the Texas/Louisiana coast at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that has been steadily growing this morning. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, since Friday, and the lower wind shear is likely responsible for the increase in thunderstorm activity. A trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into the west side of 94L, interfering with development. The disturbance should move inland by Sunday morning, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3" along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop, and the disturbance has only a day over water with marginal conditions for development. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 1. The Saturday morning NHC Tropical Weather Outlook shows two "Invests" worth watching: 94L over the Gulf of Mexico (area 1), and 95L over the Eastern Atlantic (area 2.) Both were given 20% chances of developing by Monday. Image credit: NHC.

Cape Verdes tropical wave 95L
As we approach mid-July, it's time to begin turning our attention to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. We have our first such system worthy of attention today, a tropical wave designated 95L over the Eastern Atlantic near 8°N 33°W, about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that is showing a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28°C. The 8 am EDT Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that 95L would encounter cooler waters of 27.5°C over the weekend as it headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate though Monday, which may allow for some additional organization. However, 95L is embedded in a very large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and July African waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL. The disturbance could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. A band a strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream is expected to be over the northern islands at that time, and if 95L has penetrated as far north as 15°N latitude by that time, it will have to face very high wind shear of 30+ knots. But if 95L stays farther to the south, wind shear should be lower, giving the storm a better chance of development. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 95L taken at approximately 11 am EDT Saturday, July 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. The models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation, and there is only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the southwestern coast of Mexico, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon. Erick will bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Southwest Mexico, but the core of the storm is currently expected to remain just offshore. Erick will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, when it will pass just south of Baja.

Cool San Francisco time-lapse fog video
Videographer Simon Christen has created a spectacular 4-minute time-lapse video of fog rushing in past the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco. He writes: ""Adrift" is a love letter to the fog of the San Francisco Bay Area. I chased it for over two years to capture the magical interaction between the soft mist, the ridges of the California coast and the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This is where “Adrift” was born. The weather conditions have to be just right for the fog to glide over the hills and under the bridge. I developed a system for trying to guess when to make the drive out to shoot, which involved checking the weather forecast, satellite images and webcams multiple times a day. For about 2 years, if the weather looked promising, I would set my alarm to 5am, recheck the webcams, and then set off on the 45-minute drive to the Marin Headlands. I spent many mornings hiking in the dark to only find that the fog was too high, too low, or already gone by the time I got there. Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special. Adrift is a collection of my favorite shots from these excursions into the ridges of the Marin Headlands."


Video 1. Adrift from Simon Christen on Vimeo.

Jeff Masters

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EP, 05, 2013070706, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1062W, 70, 984, HU,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1601. sar2401:

Key words are almost and models. All I know is what I see, and 95L has been running like a scared rabbit straight west at 8.2N for over 24 hours. When it starts to slow down and gain latitiude, then I'll start paying attention the models. I've learned not count my chickens before the eggs hatch. BTW, you still owe my a buck. :-)


I actually agree that it's been moving pretty much due west all day, but it's not supposed to begin gaining latitude immediately. You want evidence of a latitudinal increase over the next few days? Check out that sexy upper low swirling north of Puerto Rico; it's retrograding westward.
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I think the statistical models are too far to the north, even considering the short-term:

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1601. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
As Kori states sar2401, ridge is forecast to weaken and the invest will move to the NW and South America is not going to be what kills it. Almost every model has 95L not running into South America.

Key words are almost and models. All I know is what I see, and 95L has been running like a scared rabbit straight west at 8.2N for over 24 hours. When it starts to slow down and gain latitiude, then I'll start paying attention the models. I've learned not count my chickens before the eggs hatch. BTW, you still owe my a buck. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13369
As Kori states sar2401, ridge is forecast to weaken and the invest will move to the NW and South America is not going to be what kills it. Almost every model has 95L not running into South America.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1599. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

95L has slowly but surely been gaining latitude through today, and should continue to do so as it detaches from the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Venezuela/South America isn't an issue.

TA, it has about 600 miles to make the turn and get above 15N. At 25 mph west, it had better start gaining latitude faster rather then slower.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13369
1598. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
In anyone was wondering what NHC thinks 95L will do here is their forecast






Better slow down and start to make a turn pretty quick. It doens't have time to last until July 10 at 25 mph straight west before South America gets in the way.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13369
Quoting 1585. sar2401:
LOL, 94L is now at 0%. I guess the NHC won't drop it until there's not a bit of rain left over water. :-) 95L still at 30%, regardless of banding, hot towers, and so forth. Seems like 95L is moving a little faster amd still straight west. On this course, it has about 24 hours until it plows into Guyana or Venezuela. If nothing changes by the 2:00 pm TWO, 95L is doomed.

95L has slowly but surely been gaining latitude through today, and should continue to do so as it detaches from the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Venezuela/South America isn't an issue.
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Quoting 1593. nigel20:
It's time for bed...Good night fellow bloggers!


See ya Nigel.
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1594. sar2401
Quoting nigel20:
It's time for bed...Good night fellow bloggers!

GN, Nigel, enjoy the tropical breezes,
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13369
1593. nigel20
It's time for bed...Good night fellow bloggers!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7881
1592. sar2401
Quoting FOREX:


Live several hours from that dirty town. Not wishcasting, just seen this before with the CMC.

FOREX, CMC made a pretty big miss with that Fourth of July hurricane. I wouldn't trust it at all right now.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13369
1591. sar2401
Quoting taco2me61:
I'm out chat with you all later today :o)

Taco :o)

GN, Taco. Almost time for me to hit the hay, now that I know there's no RI with 95L toinght. :_)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13369
1590. FOREX
Quoting 1587. FIUStormChaser:


Do you happen to live near Mobile, Alabama by chance?

You can't call out a precise location of landfall on a system that hasn't even formed yet. That's like me saying the M named storm this year will make landfall in Downtown Miami on SW 8th Street on September 12th
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1589. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:


Wasn't the CMC forecasting a strong TS/Hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast of Alabama July 5/6 just a couple weeks ago?

Yes, a 993 mb hurricane right over my house on July 4. Let me check....OK, high wind was 22 mph and I did lose a fairly large tree branch. Golly, the CMC almost got it right. :-)
GN, DJ.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13369
I'm out chat with you all later today :o)

Taco :o)
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Quoting 1579. FOREX:


The further West this moves the further west the cmc will move. Looks like a Mobile Alabama storm to me.
Quoting 1579. FOREX:


The further West this moves the further west the cmc will move. Looks like a Mobile Alabama storm to me.


Do you happen to live near Mobile, Alabama by chance?

You can't call out a precise location of landfall on a system that hasn't even formed yet. That's like me saying the M named storm this year will make landfall in Downtown Miami on SW 8th Street on September 12th
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
In anyone was wondering what NHC thinks 95L will do here is their forecast





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1585. sar2401
LOL, 94L is now at 0%. I guess the NHC won't drop it until there's not a bit of rain left over water. :-) 95L still at 30%, regardless of banding, hot towers, and so forth. Seems like 95L is moving a little faster amd still straight west. On this course, it has about 24 hours until it plows into Guyana or Venezuela. If nothing changes by the 2:00 pm TWO, 95L is doomed.
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Quoting 1573. Skyepony:
TRMM of 95L. Had a hot tower there.



Holy cow.
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Quoting 1579. FOREX:


The further West this moves the further west the cmc will move. Looks like a Mobile Alabama storm to me.

Yeah maybe

Quoting 1580. daddyjames:


Well. wkc - I for one hope that isn't the case. but we'll see.

G'nite everyone. Catch you later.

Yep see you tomorrow.
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Quoting 1579. FOREX:


The further West this moves the further west the cmc will move. Looks like a Mobile Alabama storm to me.

Nope I'm not even going to say "That" right now....
Way to Early for that Word to be used Just saying :o)

Taco :o)
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Quoting 1579. FOREX:


The further West this moves the further west the cmc will move. Looks like a Mobile Alabama storm to me.


Yeah, only time will tell for sure...
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Quoting 1575. wunderkidcayman:

Should be explosive by tomorrow



Doesn't have 95L for a reason because models didn't pick up on it till a day or two ago


Well. wkc - I for one hope that isn't the case. but we'll see.

G'nite everyone. Catch you later.
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1579. FOREX
Quoting 1576. Jwd41190:


I live near Charleston, SC...but yeah the CMC model can not really be trusted that far out yet still.


The further West this moves the further west the cmc will move. Looks like a Mobile Alabama storm to me.
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Quoting 1577. allancalderini:
Today is so going to be an interesting day for 95L.

You got that right
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Today is so going to be an interesting day for 95L.
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Quoting 1551. Astrometeor:


Think Astro think. Who lives in the SC/NC area? Umm....

TA, do you know anyone who lives in NC by any chance?


I live near Charleston, SC...but yeah the CMC model can not really be trusted that far out yet still.
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Quoting 1573. Skyepony:
TRMM of 95L. Had a hot tower there.


Should be explosive by tomorrow

Quoting 1574. whitewabit:


Doesn't have 95L for a reason because models didn't pick up on it till a day or two ago
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1574. whitewabit (Mod)
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1573. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM of 95L. Had a hot tower there.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37447
Ok 95L is still at 30% with the help of D-max by the 8am TWO it could be up to 50%
94L now 0%
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1571. whitewabit (Mod)
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Quoting 1547. DataNerd:
95L is looking very organized at this hour with strong banding features forming and over all turning increasing.

Expecting them to go to high risk tomorrow at this point. Link

Yep you saw it too
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Quoting 1554. Dakster:


I used to not like the old CMC, but this new one seems to be on the money this year so far - and even this far out. I wouldn't discount it totally.

I don't trust ANYTHING this far out, regardless. so we shall wait and see. I used to think the BEST thing I wanted to see what a hurricane hitting me 7-10 days out, since I knew that was the last place it would be. I will be watching to see if that is the case this year too.


Wasn't the CMC forecasting a strong TS/Hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast of Alabama July 5/6 just a couple weeks ago?
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1568. nigel20
Quoting 1548. sar2401:

That's about $7.8 billion in 2013 dollars.

Hopefully we'll not see another Gilbert type storm until "we get our house in order". $7.8 billion in damages at this time would likely cause an economic collapse...especially with a debt to GDP ratio of over 140%. We would not get any debt forgiveness either as Jamaica is classified as a upper middle income country..this is only given to lower income countries. The only thing we're doing at the moment to prevent major damage is fixing our road and bridge infrastructure, but this will take some time because our government have to operate within a tight fiscal space.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7881
1567. Dakster
Goodnight everyone. May the weather gods be with you.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...AND IT A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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Quoting 1562. Dakster:


I am looking for a more recent upgrade list, but here is a good start - taken from NHC:

Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM)

The CMC runs the global version of their GEM model through 144 hours at 1200 UTC and through 240 hours at 0000 UTC. Highlights of the resolution and physics of the CMC GEM are available in Table 2. In June 2009, the CMC GEM converted to a hybrid vertical coordinate system that is terrain-following in the boundary layer (sigma) and becomes purely isobaric (pressure) near the tropopause, a structure similar to that used by the other global models noted in Table 2. Also in June 2009, the upper boundary of the model was raised from 10 mb (32 km) to 0.1 mb (64 km). This change permits the incorporation of more satellite observations into the initial model analysis. This latest incarnation of the GEM is referred to as the GEM .Meso-Strato. version or simply .GEM-Strato.. The CMC.s GEM, like the ECMWF and UKMET, employs a four-dimensional data assimilation scheme (4-D Var) that allows better assimilation of off-time (non-synoptic) observations, particularly from satellite data. Further information about the CMC GEM model can be found on the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) MetEd Individual Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Matrix webpage:

http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

The following link provides details on recent updates to the CMC.s GEM model:

http://www.smc-msc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/op_systems/recent _e.html

The CMC GEM does not make accommodations to its initial analysis of environmental conditions for TCs. Prior to 2009, the CMC GEM had a tendency to over-forecast genesis of TCs. The recent changes to the model upper boundary are believed to decrease the false alarm ratio for TC genesis, particularly at day 3 and beyond in the forecast period.






Good to know. I hadn't really been paying much attention to it, considering my former feelings on it. But I'm glad to know they're making it more like the other globals.

We'll see what happens this year I guess. :-P
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95L remains at 30%.
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1563. Dakster
Quoting 1561. sar2401:

The improved their algorithms for findng areas of lowering pressures, especially near regions of higher pressures. This was done mainly to improve forecast accuracy for winter lows in Canada, but it seems to have worked somewhat in the tropics. I say somewhat because it was right on the money with Andrea, at least as good as the GFS with Barry, but had been completely wrong about lows in the Gulf over the past few weeks. I think the jury is still out on whether the CMC is really more reliable or has had a few lcuky hits so far this year.


Yes - That is why we need to watch what it does. Even a broken analog clock is right twice a day. Throw enough darts at the board and you are bound to get a bullseye.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1562. Dakster
Quoting 1557. huntsvle:


hmmm...what improvements did they make...does anyone know.


I am looking for a more recent upgrade list, but here is a good start - taken from NHC:

Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM)

The CMC runs the global version of their GEM model through 144 hours at 1200 UTC and through 240 hours at 0000 UTC. Highlights of the resolution and physics of the CMC GEM are available in Table 2. In June 2009, the CMC GEM converted to a hybrid vertical coordinate system that is terrain-following in the boundary layer (sigma) and becomes purely isobaric (pressure) near the tropopause, a structure similar to that used by the other global models noted in Table 2. Also in June 2009, the upper boundary of the model was raised from 10 mb (32 km) to 0.1 mb (64 km). This change permits the incorporation of more satellite observations into the initial model analysis. This latest incarnation of the GEM is referred to as the GEM .Meso-Strato. version or simply .GEM-Strato.. The CMC.s GEM, like the ECMWF and UKMET, employs a four-dimensional data assimilation scheme (4-D Var) that allows better assimilation of off-time (non-synoptic) observations, particularly from satellite data. Further information about the CMC GEM model can be found on the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) MetEd Individual Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Matrix webpage:

http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/

The following link provides details on recent updates to the CMC.s GEM model:

http://www.smc-msc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/op_systems/recent _e.html

The CMC GEM does not make accommodations to its initial analysis of environmental conditions for TCs. Prior to 2009, the CMC GEM had a tendency to over-forecast genesis of TCs. The recent changes to the model upper boundary are believed to decrease the false alarm ratio for TC genesis, particularly at day 3 and beyond in the forecast period.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1561. sar2401
Quoting huntsvle:


hmmm...what improvements did they make...does anyone know.

The improved their algorithms for findng areas of lowering pressures, especially near regions of higher pressures. This was done mainly to improve forecast accuracy for winter lows in Canada, but it seems to have worked somewhat in the tropics. I say somewhat because it was right on the money with Andrea, at least as good as the GFS with Barry, but had been completely wrong about lows in the Gulf over the past few weeks. I think the jury is still out on whether the CMC is really more reliable or has had a few lcuky hits so far this year.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13369
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

...CENTER OF ERICK CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 106.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
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Quoting 1556. TropicalAnalystwx13:

True, but then again, I don't see anything particularly crazy about this particular run. The pattern favors a Southeast hit, whether that's on the East Gulf side or the Atlantic side. Timing will come into play when that problem arises.


I'm really more of a consensus kind of man. So I won't "discount" it, but it's too early to put any weight into it.
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1558. sar2401
Quoting DataNerd:
95L is looking very organized at this hour with strong banding features forming and over all turning increasing.

Expecting them to go to high risk tomorrow at this point. Link


The presumed center is stil around 8N and it's still moving straight west. It needs to slow down and start turning to get above at least 10N before 95L is going to be any more than it is now.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13369
Quoting 1554. Dakster:


I used to not like the old CMC, but this new one seems to be on the money this year so far - and even this far out. I wouldn't discount it totally.

I don't trust ANYTHING this far out, regardless. so we shall wait and see. I used to think the BEST thing I wanted to see what a hurricane hitting me 7-10 days out, since I knew that was the last place it would be. I will be watching to see if that is the case this year too.


hmmm...what improvements did they make...does anyone know.
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Quoting 1550. huntsvle:


...i'm not a fan of the CMC in general...and most certainly not out THAT far...I don't find it particularly useful for tropics.

True, but then again, I don't see anything particularly crazy about this particular run. The pattern favors a Southeast hit, whether that's on the East Gulf side or the Atlantic side. Timing will come into play when that problem arises.
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DOOMMMMM!!!!!!OHH WAIT IS THE CMC........LOL



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1554. Dakster
Quoting 1550. huntsvle:


...i'm not a fan of the CMC in general...and most certainly not out THAT far...I don't find it particularly useful for tropics.


I used to not like the old CMC, but this new one seems to be on the money this year so far - and even this far out. I wouldn't discount it totally.

I don't trust ANYTHING this far out, regardless. so we shall wait and see. I used to think the BEST thing I wanted to see what a hurricane hitting me 7-10 days out, since I knew that was the last place it would be. I will be watching to see if that is the case this year too.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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