A Gulf of Mexico and an Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2013

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A tropical disturbance (designated 94L by NHC on Friday) is over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is headed north towards the Texas/Louisiana coast at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that has been steadily growing this morning. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, since Friday, and the lower wind shear is likely responsible for the increase in thunderstorm activity. A trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into the west side of 94L, interfering with development. The disturbance should move inland by Sunday morning, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3" along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop, and the disturbance has only a day over water with marginal conditions for development. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 1. The Saturday morning NHC Tropical Weather Outlook shows two "Invests" worth watching: 94L over the Gulf of Mexico (area 1), and 95L over the Eastern Atlantic (area 2.) Both were given 20% chances of developing by Monday. Image credit: NHC.

Cape Verdes tropical wave 95L
As we approach mid-July, it's time to begin turning our attention to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. We have our first such system worthy of attention today, a tropical wave designated 95L over the Eastern Atlantic near 8°N 33°W, about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that is showing a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28°C. The 8 am EDT Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that 95L would encounter cooler waters of 27.5°C over the weekend as it headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate though Monday, which may allow for some additional organization. However, 95L is embedded in a very large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and July African waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL. The disturbance could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. A band a strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream is expected to be over the northern islands at that time, and if 95L has penetrated as far north as 15°N latitude by that time, it will have to face very high wind shear of 30+ knots. But if 95L stays farther to the south, wind shear should be lower, giving the storm a better chance of development. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 95L taken at approximately 11 am EDT Saturday, July 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. The models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation, and there is only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the southwestern coast of Mexico, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon. Erick will bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Southwest Mexico, but the core of the storm is currently expected to remain just offshore. Erick will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, when it will pass just south of Baja.

Cool San Francisco time-lapse fog video
Videographer Simon Christen has created a spectacular 4-minute time-lapse video of fog rushing in past the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco. He writes: ""Adrift" is a love letter to the fog of the San Francisco Bay Area. I chased it for over two years to capture the magical interaction between the soft mist, the ridges of the California coast and the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This is where “Adrift” was born. The weather conditions have to be just right for the fog to glide over the hills and under the bridge. I developed a system for trying to guess when to make the drive out to shoot, which involved checking the weather forecast, satellite images and webcams multiple times a day. For about 2 years, if the weather looked promising, I would set my alarm to 5am, recheck the webcams, and then set off on the 45-minute drive to the Marin Headlands. I spent many mornings hiking in the dark to only find that the fog was too high, too low, or already gone by the time I got there. Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special. Adrift is a collection of my favorite shots from these excursions into the ridges of the Marin Headlands."


Video 1. Adrift from Simon Christen on Vimeo.

Jeff Masters

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1854. SLU
Now up to T2.0. All we need now is for confirmation of a closed LLC and TD #3 will join us.

07/1145 UTC 9.1N 41.1W T2.0/2.0 95L
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5387
1853. FOREX
Quoting 1852. Grothar:


Pitiful.




Won't its forward speed keep it in the dry air for less time?
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1852. Grothar
Quoting 1838. Chicklit:

Here's a look at its environment

WVLoop 95L


Pitiful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at 95L vorticity has not consolidate that much but it is slowly getting better.




Convergence has been ok but could use some more to help bulk it up. But its been firing off more convection.



This is the most interesting it seem like a weak Anticyclone is trying to form right over the LLC I have been noticing that since late last night it need more latent heat (convection) to help get it establish. Which will be very significant in helping 95L to survive outside of the ITCZ and ventilate the storm. Something to watch for today.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1850. Grothar
Quoting 1830. bigwes6844:
shocker to me! Gro any thoughts why no code red?


Yes, if one reads these discussions, it usually closes with ... "within 48 hours" Most people do not read that part. Many people write that the NHC is too conservative, but I believe that to be incorrect. "Responsible" would be the correct word. Because we all know or anticipate that something will develop, they are only going out to 48 hours.

If they write....not expected to develop within 48 hours, it doesn't mean that in 72 hours they don't believe it will turn into a monster.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1844. hurricanes2018:
img style="width: 500px; max-width: 501px;" src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/gglcontent/natl.g if"> nice spin back of invest 95L

holy cow.
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Anyone notice how fast 95L is going....?

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 25 MPH.

Needs to slow down or else it will never develop.

Also 94L is down to 0% is anyone cares.
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1847. FOREX
Quoting 1841. GeorgiaStormz:
CMC is going for presslord....trended away from floida.


I'm still betting on Mobile, the further this thing keeps moving West at this latitude.
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dont forget dr masters said it was suppose to move over cooler waters 50 w should start warming up
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WV Loop Caribbean
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nice spin back of invest 95L
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 145 Comments: 124186
Our gnarly wave is surprisingly insulated from dry air.

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Quoting 1840. Grothar:


It's torture when I see all these food commercials.

You get used to it :-)
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CMC is going for presslord....trended away from floida.


Last 2 runs avoided the Florida coast like the plague, last one on the west side and this one on the east.
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1840. Grothar
Quoting 1827. Chicklit:

I was going to say 'breakfast by the sideboard' but that would kill you


It's torture when I see all these food commercials.
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95L is moving too fast. It needs to slow down about 5mph and gain some latitude.

At the speed it's moving, it can cross 5 degrees longitude in only 14 hours.
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Quoting 1830. bigwes6844:
shocker to me! Gro any thoughts why no code red?

Here's a look at its environment

WVLoop 95L
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1837. SLU
40% is a bit low for a system with a T1.5/1.5 designation but the SAL will be a major factor today.

07/0545 UTC 8.0N 38.5W T1.5/1.5 95L
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5387
well im out ill be back around 12 going nap before work
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Quoting 1831. wunderkidcayman:
Anyway guys depending on what 95L does for the rest of the morning we may see code red at 2pm TWO


May get something by 5pm
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1834. FOREX
Quoting 1831. wunderkidcayman:
Anyway guys depending on what 95L does for the rest of the morning we may see code red at 2pm TWO


Or hit Venezuela first.
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besides missing a closed low it have to battle SAL to its the west of it, it have to prove itself a bit more maybe throughout the day still have great distance before the lesser Antilles ..
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1832. ncstorm
Quoting 1828. pcola57:
NHC has plenty of territory to work with on this on..
Get more coffee like I did..
May be an interesting day with another wave off the African continent looking..
Looking well put together..


mine is brewing now..seems like this could be anyone's invest right now..
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Anyway guys depending on what 95L does for the rest of the morning we may see code red at 2pm TWO
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Quoting 1823. HurricaneAndre:
Why did they do that,usually with 30 kt winds,they go code red.
shocker to me! Gro any thoughts why no code red?
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1829. ncstorm
Everytime the good doc goes on vacay, it never fails that we get something to track and possibly form..
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1828. pcola57
NHC has plenty of territory to work with on this one..
Get more coffee like I did..
May be an interesting day with another wave off the African continent looking..
Looking well put together..

Morning GRO..
Ya feeling any better?
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Quoting 1822. Grothar:


That's about all I can have anymore, Chicklit. And maybe some dry toast, LOL

I was going to say 'breakfast by the sideboard' but that would kill you
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Quoting 1820. bigwes6844:
lmao!

Quoting 1816. FOREX:

I was closest by saying yellow crayon.

Quoting 1788. Hurricanes305:
Lol the excitement is unbearable I predict 50% NHC is conservative 



I was close too 50%
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1825. Grothar
Quoting 1819. ncstorm:
Good Morning all!


Hey, nc. You just missed the F5 contest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1816. FOREX:

I was closest by saying yellow crayon.

No you were not

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Quoting 1814. bigwes6844:
lmao we all wrong 40%!
Why did they do that,usually with 30 kt winds,they go code red.
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1822. Grothar
Quoting 1815. Chicklit:

You win the banana this morning.


That's about all I can have anymore, Chicklit. And maybe some dry toast, LOL
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Quoting 1818. Hurricanes305:

How did you get so fast that is conservative by NHC at their best
quick hands lol
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Quoting 1816. FOREX:

I was closest by saying yellow crayon.
lmao!
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1819. ncstorm
Good Morning all!
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Quoting 1811. bigwes6844:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 071154
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...AND IT HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD STILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
How did you get so fast that is conservative by NHC at their best
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 1810. Grothar:
I don't think it will be higher than 40%
good job GRO
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1816. FOREX
Quoting 1814. bigwes6844:
lmao we all wrong 40%!

I was closest by saying yellow crayon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1810. Grothar:
I don't think it will be higher than 40%

You win the banana this morning.
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lmao we all wrong 40%!
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Hmm 40%
000
ABNT20 KNHC 071154
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting 1806. hurricanes2018:
we are going to have invest 96L IN A FEW DAYSA MAYBE INVEST 97L IN five days from now..one more big tropical wave still on land to watch to
Once one get going they dont stop welcome to hurricane season.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
000
ABNT20 KNHC 071154
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...AND IT HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD STILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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1810. Grothar
I don't think it will be higher than 40%
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5 mins left
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1808. Grothar
Quoting 1794. FOREX:


if it goes back to yellow my day will be ruined.



You guys are funny.
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Quoting 1804. AussieStorm:


Still have 10mins before the T.W.O comes out, Take it easy.

I'll say 50% cause it's probably 72hrs away from being a TD/TS
i know but its funny when we get a invest doing good lol
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we are going to have invest 96L IN A FEW DAYSA MAYBE INVEST 97L IN five days from now..one more big tropical wave still on land to watch to
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 145 Comments: 124186

Quoting 1799. FOREX:


was just joking.
I know but I the excitement is killing me
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting bigwes6844:
NHC page F5 F5 F5 F5 alert lol!!!!!!!!! im going 60%


Still have 10mins before the T.W.O comes out, Take it easy.

I'll say 50% cause it's probably 72hrs away from being a TD/TS
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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