Historic Heat Wave Reponsible for Death Valley's 129°F Gradually Weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:22 PM GMT on July 02, 2013

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One of the greatest heat waves in North American history peaked on Sunday and Monday, but will still bring some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded to portions of the Western U.S. during the afternoon today. The extraordinary heat wave, caused by an unusually extreme standing wave pattern in the jet stream, brought Earth's highest June temperature ever recorded on Sunday, June 30, when the mercury hit 129.2°F (54.0°C) in Death Valley, California. The only higher temperatures ever recorded on the planet occurred in Death Valley on July 10, 12, and 13, 1913, when readings of 134°F, 130°F, and 131°F were recorded. This 100 year-old record heat wave has many doubters, though, including Mr. Burt, who noted in a 2010 blog post that "The record has been scrutinized perhaps more than any other in the United States. I don't have much more to add to the debate aside from my belief it is most likely not a valid reading when one looks at all the evidence. Normally when Death Valley records its hottest temperatures they occur during region-wide heat waves. On July 10, 1913 the next highest temperatures recorded in southern California (aside from Greenland Ranch) were just 119° at Heber and 118° at Mammoth Tank." If Mr. Burt is correct, then this Sunday's temperature of 129.2°F in Death Valley was the hottest temperature in recorded history on Earth.


Figure 1. The official Furnace Creek, Death Valley maximum recording thermometer for the maximum temperature measured on June 30th, 2013. The 129.2°F reading was the highest June temperature ever measured on Earth. Photo courtesy of Death Valley National Park and NWS-Las Vegas.

As documented by Mr. Burt in this latest blog post, some of the all-time records from the 2013 heat wave:

June 27, 2013
102° Santa Fe, NM: all-time heat record
105° Albuquerque, NM: tied 2nd highest temperature on record

June 28, 2013
105° Salt Lake City, UT: hottest June temperature on record
114° Zion National Park, UT: hottest June temp on record, and only 1° short of their all-time record of 115°

June 29, 2013
100° Ely, Nevada: hottest June temperature on record (previous 99° June 22, 1954)
101° Eureka, Nevada: hottest June temperature on record (previous 98° on two occasions)
105° Salt Lake City, Utah: hottest June temperature on record (again, see June 28)
122° Palm Springs, California: hottest June temperature on record (tied June 28, 1994) and 1° short of all-time record of 123° set on August 1, 1993
128° Death Valley, California: hottest June temperature on record (tied previous 128° set on June 29, 1994)
It was 119° in Phoenix, Arizona their 4th warmest reading on record.

June 30, 2013
129° Death Valley, California: Earth's all-time hottest June temperature
115° Lancaster, California: all--time heat record (previous record 114° on July 18 and 19, 1960)
117° Las Vegas, Nevada: all-time heat record (tied with July 19, 2005 and July 24, 1942)

All-time June monthly records were set or tied at:
104° Elko, Nevada (previous 104° June 24, 1981)
103° Tonopah, Nevada (previous 102° on two occasions), this was also just 1° short of their all-time record of 104° set on July 18, 1960).
106° Winnemucca, Nevada (previous 106° on June 24, 1988)

July 1, 2013
127° Death Valley, California
110° Boise, Idaho: tied for 2nd hottest temperature on record

Deadly Yarnell, Arizona fire continues to burn out-of-control
The deadly Yarnell Hills, Arizona wildfire that claimed the lives of nineteen firefighters of the Prescott-based Granite Mountain Hotshots continues to burn out of control near Yarnell, a small town about 85 miles northwest of Phoenix. The fire has burned 8,400 acres (13 square miles) and was 0% contained on Tuesday morning. Temperatures in the upper 90s are expected Tuesday afternoon near Yarnell. These temperatures are about five degrees cooler than during Sunday's deadly blaze. The intense ridge of high pressure responsible for the intense heat will continue to weaken during the week, and high temperatures will be in the low 90s by the end of the week.


Figure 2. The Yarnell Hill Fire burns through the town of Yarnell, Ariz. on Sunday, June 30, 2013. The fire started Friday from a lightning strike and killed nineteen firefighters on Sunday. (AP Photo/The Arizona Republic, Tom Story)

Radar imagery from Sunday showed numerous dry thunderstorms over the Yarnell area, and it is likely that the outflow from one of these thunderstorms caused a sharp wind shift and strong wind gusts that caused extreme fire behavior that overran the firefighters' escape route. According to The Arizona Republic, the firefighters were trapped between two ridges when the winds suddenly reversed. A fire-monitoring station four miles from the fire measured nearly record combustion levels for the fuel on the ground, in the 97th percentile since the station was installed in 1985. The station measured southwest winds gusting to 15 to 25 mph at 4:01 PM. One hour later, ten minutes after the firefighters had deployed their fire shelters, the wind had reversed direction to northeast, and was gusting at 30 to 47 mph. The topography could have channeled these wind gusts to even higher speeds where the firefighters were. "Guys on the ground told me the fire behavior was as extreme as anything they’d ever seen,” said Dugger Hughes of the Southwest Coordination Center, an interagency organization in New Mexico that coordinates state and federal firefighting resources. The flames were 40 feet high and moved at an average speed of 1/2 mph. According to WWF blogger Nick Sundt, who is a former "smokejumper", dry thunderstorms causing sudden wind gusts and wind shifts is a common scenario with such large scale firefighter fatality incidents: for example, in the 1949 Mann Gulch fire in Montana (thirteen firefighters killed), and in the 1994 Storm King Mountain or South Canyon Fire in Colorado (fourteen firefighters killed.) Nick commented in an email to me: "It happened once to me in Idaho late one afternoon (in 1981, I think) when gusts from a building thunderstorm caused a fire to blow up in a drainage I was in with other smokejumpers.  We popped our fire shelters but the winds shifted late in the night and the fire stopped short of us. We high-tailed it out of there early in the morning before the winds picked up and incinerated everything we left behind (parachutes, jump gear, etc)." Wunderblogger Lee Grenci analyzes the 3-dimensional characteristics of the atmosphere over Arizona over the weekend in his latest post. He shows how conditions were ideal on Sunday for spawning dry thunderstorms capable of bringing erratic, gusty winds to the fire region. Here is the "Spot Forecast" that the Granite Mountain Hotshots had to work with on Sunday:

FNUS75 KFGZ 301655
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR YARNELL HILL...ARIZONA STATE FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SUN JUN 30 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0939 MST ON JUNE 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT SPELL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....100 TO 103.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 TO 15 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....73 TO 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........35 TO 40 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....98 TO 102.
MIN HUMIDITY........13 TO 17 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

$$
FORECASTER...DB
REQUESTED BY...BYRON R KMIBALL
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
TAG 20130630.YARNE.01/FGZ

The shocking and sad deaths of the nineteen brave men who died on Sunday was the largest loss of life among wildfire firefighters since 1933 Griffith Park, California fire in the U.S. (25 killed.) Fighting wildfires is dangerous work, and 1,043 firefighters died between 1910 - 2012 fighting wildfires in the U.S., according to statistics from the National Interagency Fire Center. Firefighter deaths have been on the rise in recent decades. Over the past ten years, 2004 - 2013, there have been an average of sixteen of these deaths per year, compared to eleven deaths per year during the 1970s and 1980s.

Links
Experts See New Normal as a Hotter, Drier West Faces More Huge Fires New York Times, July 1, 2013
The Climate Context Behind the Deadly Arizona Wildfires Climate Central, July 1, 2013

The tropical Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable forecast models predict tropical cyclone development through Sunday. There is a large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system over the middle of the North Atlantic that will move to the southwest during the week, and this low is expected to arrive in the Bahamas by Sunday and bring rainy conditions. Although the models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation and develop tropical characteristics, it may be worth watching for development late this week.

Jeff Masters

Scorching Hot! (Fonda)
My gauge is almost running out of numbers.
Scorching Hot!
First monsoon storm (avidsleeper)
Somehow managed to get a daytime lightning shot from my living room window. Exposure time was 1/8 of a second. Our first real storm of the season!
First monsoon storm

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SLU, the GFS model on long range by mid July and forward is starting to show more lows emerging West Africa and more robust waves.
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Quoting 152. RTSplayer:


"Okeanos-We clean your water."

Great invention.

This would appear to make the solar powered desal idea totally doable.

With some responsible government support and infrastructure development, drought induced crop failure could become a thing of the past.

I can imagine facilities the size of like a gymnasium filled with billions of these circuits, only like wafers or something, and just cleaning water, maybe a hundred thousands of gallons per day.


The cost of pumping the water from the sea to where it's needed would be prohibitive, never mind the start up costs. It would be cheaper to import grain from Russia, so that's what would happen.

Very interesting article, though. However, cynic that I am, I sense a stock market ramp up.
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Dalila is now a hurricane.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
In my humble opinion,that blob below Cuba has been very persistent!! now for a couple of days,maybe something is trying to going on not quickly but a area that we have to watch carefully!!,wondering why nobody on this blog has comment about this feature??,it looks very impressive on Satellite presentation.Now the East coast of Florida is getting all the rain.Our local Met's said last night that the high pressure moving from East to West should push all the moisture out of Florida right on time for the 4th of July weekend (I'm praying for this) we have reservations on a South Beach Hotel,and don't want to see rain from Thursday through Saturday,but we all know how wrong the Met's can be!!,and I don't see that High Pressure pushing anything at this moment,as a matter of fact actually I can see more moisture to the East of Florida.
Any comments please!!!.
Thanks!!
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Quoting 162. stormpetrol:



Quite a disturbed weather out there
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The blob in the NW Caribbean seems to be moving south bound or at leased the heaviest of the convection and seem like it wants to attach itself to the small blob in the GOH and convection starting to build just W of Jamaica
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Quoting 154. WhereIsTheStorm:


Grothar, you can't prove the Jetstream is Crazy without getting it in writing from two psychiatrists and proving it in court.


I went to a psychiatrist once. I told him, "One day I'm a tee pee and the next day I'm a wigwam. He told me the problem was I was too tense.
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A lil known Journey, almost akin to Lewis and Clark in a way, begins,44 years after the Moon landing.



tRowers set off on Arctic journey made possible by global warming

Tuesday, July 2nd, 2013 By Nicky Stubbs


A four-man Irish-Canadian team of rowers embarked on a trip on Monday that they say is only possible because of global warming.
The rowers, who between them have previously broken world records by rowing the Atlantic, canoeing across Canada and skiing to the South Pole, aim to row the 3,000km journey across the Northwest Passage in one single season. Their trip began in Inuvik, Canada.
Their 25-foot boat, the Arctic Joule, will be manned in continuous shifts 24 hours a day. It has been designed and built especially for this expedition.
The aim of the journey is to emphasise the drastic changes that are happening to the Earth. It has not been possible previously due to the huge amount of ice that once engulfed their route.
Kevin Valley, lead rower for the team, said, “Climate change is transforming the Arctic and the world. By traversing the Northwest Passage completely under human power in a rowboat, without sail or motor, the Mainstream Last First team will be able to demonstrate first-hand the dramatic effects climate change is having on our planet.”
Although the route has been covered before, the men hope to be the first to complete the journey in a man-powered boat. Previous journeys have required the use of ice-breakers – ships that are designed to plough through ocean ice.
Valley added, “There seems to be a disconnect between what’s actually happening with climate change and what’s being done about it. We hope that our expedition will show the world through a real-life example of what climate change is doing today.”
The crew’s itinerary includes a rifle, an essential part of their equipment to protect them from polar bear attacks, but they are hoping it will stay in its case.
The expedition is expected to last three months and is sponsored by Mainstream Renewable Power, a company who describe themselves as “leading the change in sustainability”. One of the projects the firm is currently in the process of developing is a large-scale wind farm off the coast of Scotland.
A group of Russian scientists were recently forced to abandon their research station in the Arctic because of rapid ice melt in the region.
But the Arctic’s decline is not only a concern for scientists. The US government recently banned oil giant Shell from drilling in the region amid fears that oil extraction companies would make “unnecessary improvisation with critical equipment”.
An oil spill in the region would have severe consequences on the environment and indigenous communities, and regulators were concerned that Shell didn’t have sufficient safety procedures in place.
Further reading:
Met Office scientists link unusual British weather with Arctic warming
Permafrost warming in the Arctic worries NASA scientists
US bans Shell from Arctic drilling until safety fears are eliminated
Arctic ice melt forces Russian scientists to abandon research station

- See more at: http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/2013/07/02/rowers- set-off-on-arctic-journey-made-possible-by-global- warming/#sthash.EUDjiyMk.dpuf
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Quoting 154. WhereIsTheStorm:


Grothar, you can't prove the Jetstream is Crazy without getting it in writing from two psychiatrists and proving it in court.


They were applying Rorschach testing earlier. Perhaps they did determine if it was sane or not.
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Quoting 158. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dalila seems to be showing an eye.



Eye see.

You bumping your forecast back up to 100 mph E-, I mean Cody?
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Quoting 145. washingtonian115:
I would hate for something under favorable conditions to go and blow up with those sst.


Washi,
Please don't take this too personally; But for the past two days my avitar has been bothering me something fierce to ask you to have your new avitar give him a call. I think he wants to ask her out for a day-sail lunch date some afternoon. Could you please have your new avitar give him a call so he'll stop bugging me about this?

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Quoting 143. txjac:


If some of the moisture made it into Texas I would be saying YEEHAW!
I will be sending the rain your way by Wu Mail.Hopefully it will help.But seriously, I am praying that Texas gets rain.I know you all really need it.
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Quoting 158. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dalila seems to be showing an eye.



Not yet but very close it seems
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Quoting 115. SLU:
According to some of our expert bloggers, July 15th - 20th will be the time to watch for MDR development.



Yes it is true

But we still need to keep eyes out for unexpected development and yes unexpected development do happen
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Dalila seems to be showing an eye.

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This is interesting:

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David Morgan brought his grandson along for the July Jubilee. "They're just laying on the bottom. They're fresh dead. It's like a shopping spree at the seafood market," said Morgan.

'Jubilee' fish kill lures families to beach for easy-to-catch seafood
Posted: Jul 01, 2013 7:24 AM CDT


HARRISON COUNTY, MS (WLOX) -
Researchers now know what caused a widespread fish kill along the beaches of South Mississippi Monday. Thousands of dead fish started washing ashore in Harrison County, Hancock County, and Cat Island in the early morning hours.

The Department of Marine Resources says one reason is low oxygen levels, due to the warm water. Several samples also pointed to Red Tide algae blooms in the Mississippi Sound that can deplete the oxygen and clog the gills of fish.

Many families took advantage of the event, calling it a "July Jubilee." They didn't seem to mind the dead fish and sting rays floating in the water and lying on the beach.

Hundreds of people were lured to the shores of Harrison County, after learning about an abundance of available seafood. There were a lot of flounder, white trout, speckled trout and ground mullet that you could catch with your bare hands.

"They're just floating on the surface," said Jordan Mathews of Biloxi. "I was watching the news this morning. I saw there was a Jubilee and some of my friends were out here gigging flounders, so I came out here to see what it was all about."

"What it appears to be is a Jubilee, or Red Tide. When the oxygen level is low in the water, the fish would come up next to the shoreline to try to get air," explained Chuck Loftis, Harrison County Sand Beach Director.

And that meant plenty of seafood up for grabs. The most popular was jumbo shrimp. David Morgan brought his grandson along for the fish free-for-all.

"They're just laying on the bottom. They're fresh dead. It's like a shopping spree at the seafood market. You just pick them up," said Morgan.

DMR officials are advising people that if you pick up fish in the water and they're still alive, they should be safe to eat. However, if you see ones that have washed ashore, don't pick them up or eat them.

"Good Fourth of July feast," said Morgan.

When asked if he thinks the seafood is safe to eat, he replied, "Definitely. People have been doing this on the coast for decades. None of us dead yet."

It wasn't the beach scene tourists expected to see.

"This is the wildest thing we've ever seen. We've never seen so many dead fish or sting rays, jelly fish. Kind of put a hamper on our swimming on the beach though," said Laura Held of Missouri.

"The beaches are open. None of the beaches are closed. Hopefully, within the next two days, we'll have all this taken care of," said Loftis.

He said the cleanup should be done in time for the Fourth of July fun and festivities on the beach.

In Harrison County, most of the dead fish were found between the Long Beach Harbor and the Biloxi Small Craft Harbor. The Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality and the Gulf Coast Research Lab are also studying the fish kill.

Copyright 2013 WLOX. All rights reserved
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Quoting 102. moonlightcowboy:


Is it me, or does this setup look oddly, uncommonly peculiar?
Looks like that huge ULL is starting to get squeezed and pinched off by the High. Seems like that's what I read on here yesterday was supposed to happen and send some of it SW.
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Quoting 100. Grothar:


Yes, it could have something to do with the crazy jetstream.


Grothar, you can't prove the Jetstream is Crazy without getting it in writing from two psychiatrists and proving it in court.
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Quoting 141. Levi32:
I must make an apology to the blog for an errant statement I made. When I stated that the northern hemisphere jet stream pattern today is not extreme, I was using a standardized 500mb height anomaly plot generated by myself to illustrate that the anomaly magnitudes were generally below 1 standard deviation. Currently such anomalies are not offered on free websites, which is why I had to plot it myself. It turns out that the sub-script used to make that particular plot is not finished, but I had forgotten that since it has been months since I last used it. As a result, the magnitude of the anomaly values on the plot were too small by roughly a factor of 2. The actual standardized z500 anomalies are in excess of 2 standard deviations above normal in the western U.S. ridge and in excess of 2 standard deviations below normal in the central U.S. trough as of 06z.

Statistically, that means that the magnitudes of these anomalies are roughly in the 5% largest of all measurements. If this is indeed rare enough, it could be used to characterize today's U.S. jet stream pattern as "extreme." There is still no scientific metric that I know of for quantifying the "severity" of the jet stream amplitude, and I personally have seen this type of jet configuration many times before today. However, I must apologize for providing incorrect information.

Congratulations in debugging the issue and I salute your integrity in bringing the issue forward.
-z
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Quoting 76. Patrap:
http://ecowatch.com/2013/energy-efficient-process -seawater-into-freshwater/

CleanTechnica

By Nathan August



A prototype “water chip” developed by researchers at The University of Texas at Austin in collaboration with a startup company. Photo Credit: University of Texas at Austin

Seawater desalination with nothing more than a small electrical field? A simple new method of creating freshwater from seawater—that uses far less energy than conventional methods do—has just been developed by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin and the University of Marburg in Germany.

The new method—electrochemically mediated seawater desalination—uses no membranes, is considerably simpler than conventional methods, and is so low-energy that it can be performed with the energy provided by store-bought batteries. Those are big improvements on all fronts—if the process can be adequately scaled up, it’s a potentially revolutionary development. Freshwater scarcity is expected to become a significant problem in many regions of the world in the coming decades, but as it stands now, saltwater desalination isn’t particularly economical … A cheaper, simpler method than those currently available would be of great use—one which could be used on larger scales than simple solar stills are.
The new method/technology is patent-pending and is currently in commercial development by startup company Okeanos Technologies.
“The availability of water for drinking and crop irrigation is one of the most basic requirements for maintaining and improving human health,” said Richard Crooks of The University of Texas at Austin. “Seawater desalination is one way to address this need, but most current methods for desalinating water rely on expensive and easily contaminated membranes. The membrane-free method we’ve developed still needs to be refined and scaled up, but if we can succeed at that, then one day it might be possible to provide fresh water on a massive scale using a simple, even portable, system.”
The researchers think that the new method could be of particular use to those in the world’s poorer, more water-stressed regions—more than a third of the world’s people live in such regions. While lacking in freshwater, the majority of these regions have access to vast seawater resources, just not an economical means to desalinate it.
“People are dying because of a lack of freshwater,” said Tony Frudakis, founder and CEO of Okeanos Technologies. “And they’ll continue to do so until there is some kind of breakthrough, and that is what we are hoping our technology will represent.”
The University of Texas at Austin explains the method:
To achieve desalination, the researchers apply a small voltage (3.0 volts) to a plastic chip filled with seawater. The chip contains a microchannel with two branches. At the junction of the channel an embedded electrode neutralizes some of the chloride ions in seawater to create an “ion depletion zone” that increases the local electric field compared with the rest of the channel. This change in the electric field is sufficient to redirect salts into one branch, allowing desalinated water to pass through the other branch.
“The neutralization reaction occurring at the electrode is key to removing the salts in seawater,” stated Kyle Knust, a graduate student and co-author on the new research paper.
“Like a troll at the foot of the bridge, the ion depletion zone prevents salt from passing through, resulting in the production of freshwater.”
As of now, the best that the researchers have achieved is 25 percent desalination—drinking water requires 99 percent desalination. The researchers are confident, though, that the 99 percent goal is very achievable.
“This was a proof of principle,” stated Knust. “We’ve made comparable performance improvements while developing other applications based on the formation of an ion depletion zone. That suggests that 99 percent desalination is not beyond our reach.”
The process will also need to be scaled up—as of right now, the microchannels are about the size of a human hair, and produce about 40 nanoliters of desalted water per minute. In order for the technology to be of practical use, a device would have to produce several liters—at least—of water per day.
The researchers are confident that this can be achieved, creating “a future in which the technology is deployed at different scales to meet different needs.”
“You could build a disaster relief array or a municipal-scale unit,” said Frudakis. “Okeanos has even contemplated building a small system that would look like a Coke machine and would operate in a standalone fashion to produce enough water for a small village.”
The new research was just published in the journal Angewandte Chemie.
Visit EcoWatch’s WATER page for more related news on this topic.
——–


"Okeanos-We clean your water."

Great invention.

This would appear to make the solar powered desal idea totally doable.

With some responsible government support and infrastructure development, drought induced crop failure could become a thing of the past.

I can imagine facilities the size of like a gymnasium filled with billions of these circuits, only like wafers or something, and just cleaning water, maybe a hundred thousands of gallons per day.
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Quoting 138. zampaz:

Temp here is 84F
Dewpoint 71F
I've been watching the moisture move towards us from the South on wundground radar, and as soon as precipitation gets within 20 miles it seems to dissipate.
Maybe we'll see some showers this afternoon.


I'll raise you to 86, with a bit less "soup: :))
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Levi just boosted his respect factor a full standard deviation, now approaching extreme :)
thanks for that explanation!
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Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2781
Quoting 146. Astrometeor:


/facepalm

He was sarcastic. Not exactly lying, but more rather a hilarious joke. Understand now?

Yes.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
its going up my friends!!
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Quoting 140. 62901IL:

So there is that many storms in 9 weeks?


/facepalm

He was sarcastic. Not exactly lying, but more rather a hilarious joke. Understand now?
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Quoting 137. redwagon:


I was at Galveston last week and the water was uncomfortably warm. On the low-wave side of a stone pier it was bathwater hot. East Beach.
I would hate for something under favorable conditions to go and blow up with those sst.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
GFS moves the heavy rain bullseye to the GA/TN/AL area.

Still has the heavy band across N GA to NC.

Widespread 3-5+"

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9726
143. txjac
Quoting 113. mrsalagranny:
If a wave could get going in all that moisture, I would be saying RUT RHOEEEEEE LOL


If some of the moisture made it into Texas I would be saying YEEHAW!
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So the CFS wasn't that crazy.
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I must make an apology to the blog for an errant statement I made. When I stated that the northern hemisphere jet stream pattern today is not extreme, I was using a standardized 500mb height anomaly plot generated by myself to illustrate that the anomaly magnitudes were generally below 1 standard deviation. Currently such anomalies are not offered on free websites, which is why I had to plot it myself. It turns out that the sub-script used to make that particular plot is not finished, but I had forgotten that since it has been months since I last used it. As a result, the magnitude of the anomaly values on the plot were too small by roughly a factor of 2. The actual standardized z500 anomalies are in excess of 2 standard deviations above normal in the western U.S. ridge and in excess of 2 standard deviations below normal in the central U.S. trough as of 06z.

Statistically, that means that the magnitudes of these anomalies are roughly in the 5% largest of all measurements. If this is indeed rare enough, it could be used to characterize today's U.S. jet stream pattern as "extreme." There is still no scientific metric that I know of for quantifying the "extremity" of the jet stream amplitude, and I personally have seen this type of jet configuration many times before today. However, I must apologize for providing incorrect information.
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Quoting 139. Astrometeor:


Hydrus is telling you the truth.

So there is that many storms in 9 weeks?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
Quoting 135. 62901IL:

Are you really telling me the truth or are you lying?


Hydrus is telling you the truth.
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Quoting 130. goosegirl1:


Yep, I just went outside and figured that out:) The dew point here is actually 68, but it's quite enough for me. I don't live in Florida for a reason, but somebody down there reversed the fans and sent the soupy air north!

Temp here is 84F
Dewpoint 71F
I've been watching the moisture move towards us from the South on wundground radar, and as soon as precipitation gets within 20 miles it seems to dissipate.
Maybe we'll see some showers this afternoon.
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Quoting 125. washingtonian115:
Well storms like Humberto and Allison along with Claudette "popped up" with little to no model support.The gulf is famous for developing pop up storms and some of the water temps are nearing 90.


I was at Galveston last week and the water was uncomfortably warm. On the low-wave side of a stone pier it was bathwater hot. East Beach.
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Quoting 9. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A new blog but a minute after we reach 5000 posts on the other - coincidence?

I think not!

Thanks Dr. Masters.

One more day...




lucky
you even get a dry independence day

it goes on here...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9726
Quoting 133. hydrus:
Its scary...I once counted 1378 such occurrences in the span of 9 weeks.

Are you really telling me the truth or are you lying?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
Quoting 115. SLU:
According to some of our expert bloggers, July 15th - 20th will be the time to watch for MDR development.

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Quoting 129. 62901IL:

You must be joking.
Its scary...I once counted 1378 such occurrences in the span of 9 weeks.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
Quoting 130. goosegirl1:


Yep, I just went outside and figured that out:) The dew point here is actually 68, but it's quite enough for me. I don't live in Florida for a reason, but somebody down there reversed the fans and sent the soupy air north!
Humidity is terrible outside :(.With all the rain outside the mosquito's have gone mad and wild.Feels like I moved to Florida without ever moving? o_0.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:
12Z GFS is showing 11" of rain over the next 8 days acorss western FL.



I see 5" but not 11"
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Quoting 94. hurricanes2018:
dewpoints in the 70 in the northeast


Yep, I just went outside and figured that out:) The dew point here is actually 68, but it's quite enough for me. I don't live in Florida for a reason, but somebody down there reversed the fans and sent the soupy air north!
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Quoting 128. hydrus:
Wow ! there are about 6000 to 7000 thousand of those a year.

You must be joking.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
Quoting 120. 62901IL:

Ooooooh, look at that 987mb low over canada!
Wow ! there are about 6000 to 7000 thousand of those a year.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054

Quoting 115. SLU:
According to some of our expert bloggers, July 15th - 20th will be the time to watch for MDR development.

The high looks weaker allow the ITCZ to lift north and moist up the MDR. Still its out 300+ hours 
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Quoting 125. washingtonian115:
Well storms like Humberto and Allison along with Claudette "popped up" with little to no model support.The gulf is famous for developing pop up storms and some of the water temps are nearing 90.

OK
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
Well storms like Humberto and Allison along with Claudette "popped up" with little to no model support.The gulf is famous for developing pop up storms and some of the water temps are nearing 90.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
(click to enlarge)
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Quoting 96. Patrap:









your still the Best Moai Carver to this day Gro

Thats his new stuff, check out the work he chipped in the Mid East.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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