Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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2008. hydrus
2:37 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, by all means, let's keep things in context. So despite the fact that Alaska is hotter than its been at any time in recorded history, and despite the fact that this is happening at a time when the much-vaunted PDO should be inducing a cooling signal in the state, some are still ignoring the event. Gee, that seems a little like saying, "Except for that 100 pounds I've put on in the last year, my weight-loss routine is going great!" ;-)

Anyway, I've seen some of the most vocal climate change denialists delusionalists such as JB, Maue, and Watts go on and on about the PDO as though it's got some fantasy powers that will allow it to overwhelm CO2-induced global warming. It's definitely a crutch of sorts, and a well-worn one at that. But the problem with all well-worn crutches is that there comes a time they can no longer support anything--and I think we're there with the PDO.

Anyway, you should know that your statement about the PDO--"The warming in the state from 1949-2012 is solely due to a giant step up in 1976-1977 due to the flip of the PDO from its negative phase to its positive phase."--is scientifically invalid, as it not supported by the evidence. If you'd like to claim that the relationship is uncertain or that the causes are ambiguous, that's okay. But blanket terms such as "solely" have no place in discussions of this sort.
I still cannot believe there are people saying that the Earth is not warming. There are times when I do not even bring up the fact that humans may be responsible for the co2 levels, just the evidence that the globe is on a warming trend, and they scream like I blamed them for it...People will not accept the truth until it burns the ground into ashes, then say its a natural cycle..Some folks like to argue just to argue, or to stir the pot .
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21775
2007. Neapolitan
2:30 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


And I realize some may take offense to me posting this, but we can't pretend that context doesn't exist, can we?

As record-breaking as this summer is for my home state, it is necessary to point out that in Alaska, specifically, no global warming signal exists (yet). The warming in the state from 1949-2012 is solely due to a giant step up in 1976-1977 due to the flip of the PDO from its negative phase to its positive phase. Our state is perhaps the most sensitive place in the world to the PDO. So far, that signal overwhelms everything else on a multidecadal scale, and there is no overall global warming signal, as much as some may wish that there was.

AK Temps:



Source

PDO:



Source
Oh, by all means, let's keep things in context. So despite the fact that Alaska is hotter than its been at any time in recorded history, and despite the fact that this is happening at a time when the much-vaunted PDO should be inducing a cooling signal in the state, some are still ignoring the event. Gee, that seems a little like saying, "Except for that 100 pounds I've put on in the last year, my weight-loss routine is going great!" ;-)

Anyway, I've seen some of the most vocal climate change denialists delusionalists such as JB, Maue, and Watts go on and on about the PDO as though it's got some fantasy powers that will allow it to overwhelm CO2-induced global warming. It's definitely a crutch of sorts, and a well-worn one at that. But the problem with all well-worn crutches is that there comes a time they can no longer support anything--and I think we're there with the PDO.

Anyway, you should know that your statement about the PDO--"The warming in the state from 1949-2012 is solely due to a giant step up in 1976-1977 due to the flip of the PDO from its negative phase to its positive phase."--is scientifically invalid, as it not supported by the evidence. If you'd like to claim that the relationship is uncertain or that the causes are ambiguous, that's okay. But blanket terms such as "solely" have no place in discussions of this sort.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13613
2006. 1900hurricane
2:08 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
New Blog Y'all
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
2005. Birthmark
2:06 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
And to follow up a bit more on warming in Alaska, I'll post the GIStemp Northern Hemisphere map for the period 1981-2012. That's well after the sudden increase in 1977 documented in the graph above.



What we find is that there is indeed no warming trend in the southern portion of Alaska. However, as we proceed north, the warming signal emerges -pretty clearly in the northern most portion.

I'm color-blind, so I don't know exactly what color I'm looking at there, but it looks to me like the increase is 0.5C, or about 0.17C/decade. That's a little less than the trend over land globally, but still a respectable amount of warming.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
2004. MechEngMet
2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2013

Quoting Grothar:


E=mc². There, take that! :)
It's all relative.
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
2003. Tropicsweatherpr
2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting SLU:
All systems go



PDO has cooled again.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14574
2002. aislinnpaps
2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Good morning, everyone. Afternoon Barbamz and VR. Evening, Aussie. Would have checked in last night when I got home, but big thunderstorm, no rain, and no electric. : (

74 degrees and feels very nice out there. I should be working in the garden, but need a day of rest. Had a great time at the dog show though, very successful Meet the Breed and Judge's Education on the Russian Toy.

I drove past where the tornado hit. It's one thing to see it on TV, but it's another thing to see it with your own eyes, brings a sense of reality that can't be gotten from pictures or video.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Steak and eggs, English muffins with your choice of jellies or cinnamon butter, yogurt and to keep it healthy, fresh fruit, smoked salmon, tomato and egg whites on a whole wheat English muffin and fresh squeezed orange juice.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3160
2001. MechEngMet
2:02 PM GMT on June 24, 2013

Quoting mikatnight:


Go ahead, make me feel a little dumber. It's Monday, bring it on, I can take it (shuffles off to the corner...)


Peace & Apologies.   Not my intent to harass.  

I was miffed at the chart.  It reminded me of one of my pet peeves, and that's what set me off.
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
2000. scott39
1:55 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
WOW



And the 96hrs after that




And after that

Looks like July 4th may be a wash out for me,along with the possibility of very slow moving tropical rain.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6890
1999. hydrus
1:55 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Grothar:


You never saw Rocky, Rocky II, Rocky III, Rocky IV, Rocky V, Rocky VI, Rocky VII, or Rocky goes the Nursing Home?????
I saw Rocky 934,867,487,483,957 and a half...I will never need assisted living....i am well steeped in Geritol.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21775
1998. yonzabam
1:54 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


And I realize some may take offense to me posting this, but we can't pretend that context doesn't exist, can we?

As record-breaking as this summer is for my home state, it is necessary to point out that in Alaska, specifically, no global warming signal exists (yet). The warming in the state from 1949-2012 is solely due to a giant step up in 1976-1977 due to the flip of the PDO from its negative phase to its positive phase. Our state is perhaps the most sensitive place in the world to the PDO. So far, that signal overwhelms everything else on a multidecadal scale, and there is no overall global warming signal, as much as some may wish that there was.

AK Temps:



Source

PDO:



Source


Now, that second graph is very interesting indeed. Global temperatures cooled for 30 years from the 40s to the 70s, despite increasing CO2. According to the graph, the PDO was in a negative phase for those 30 years.

I'm going to have to do some reading up on this PDO thingy.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2958
1997. VR46L
1:54 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Chicklit:


Looks Pretty dry there ! Considering How the African coast normally looks in NOAA Imagery !



Good Morning Folks!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
1996. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:53 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1995. Torito
1:53 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Morning everyone, Hope you are feeling better grothar.

Just throwing this out here (NOT SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN) that this is the first storm of the year to have a (SMALL) chance of becoming a major hurricane.I seriously doubt it can get past 80-90MPH at the most, but this was just something interesting to point out.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1994. SLU
1:52 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
All systems go

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
1993. Grothar
1:52 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting mikatnight:


I wish quotes would also display the post # (looked for Sar's orig. post, but...), that way I wouldn't have to sound like an idiot. I have not seen this film! Is it only on DVD? I have the MT Katrina video in the HP guide, but this is (sadly) news to me. I remember Rocky, didn't know there was a movie.


You never saw Rocky, Rocky II, Rocky III, Rocky IV, Rocky V, Rocky VI, Rocky VII, or Rocky goes the Nursing Home?????
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26896
1992. GeorgiaStormz
1:51 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
WOW



And the 96hrs after that




And after that

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
1991. Grothar
1:48 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting mikatnight:
Well, I'm off to work. Better get out of here before another one of you muscle-brainy types kicks more numbers in my face (lol).

Hi Grothar!


E=mc². There, take that! :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26896
1990. allancalderini
1:46 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Barry killed 3 in Mexico base on this report.Link
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4459
1989. Birthmark
1:45 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


And I realize some may take offense to me posting this, but we can't pretend that context doesn't exist, can we?

As record-breaking as this summer is for my home state, it is necessary to point out that in Alaska, specifically, no global warming signal exists (yet). The warming in the state from 1949-2012 is solely due to a giant step up in 1976-1977 due to the flip of the PDO from its negative phase to its positive phase. Our state is perhaps the most sensitive place in the world to the PDO. So far, that signal overwhelms everything else on a multidecadal scale, and there is no overall global warming signal, as much as some may wish that there was.

AK Temps:



Source

PDO:



Source

I'm not so sure you're reading the situation correctly.

Looking at the PDO from 1980 to present, we see a downward trend. Yet you state that Alaska's temperatures haven't risen. Should the temperature not decline along with the PDO to some extent?

I have no doubt that the PDO is having some effect, but I think a fairer reading of your graphics is that AGW has prevented the temperatures in Alaska from declining as they otherwise should.

Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1988. Chicklit
1:45 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
1987. mikatnight
1:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Well, I'm off to work. Better get out of here before another one of you muscle-brainy types kicks more numbers in my face (lol).

Hi Grothar!
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1986. goosegirl1
1:34 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Link

Here's another try- it's a link to a USDA document.

Still doesn't work... try here:

Link

or here: Link

That second link is to a lobbyist page, just to make it clear I realize it's more info from the ground and not peer- reviewed research.

The point I intended to make was that climate change effects the whole globe. There will be local variations called "weather" and there will be cool periods. But we are all going to have to face the consequences of our lifestyle, sooner or later.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1238
1985. Grothar
1:34 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
From the State of Alaska website:

Excerpt:


Global warming is currently impacting Alaska and will continue to impact it a number of ways. These impacts include melting polar ice, the retreat of glaciers, increasing storm intensity, wildfires, coastal flooding, droughts, crop failures, loss of habitat and threatened plant and animal species.

According to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association) scientists, Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 was the lowest since satellite records began in 1979; it was 16 percent lower than the previous low in 2007 and more than half of what it was in 1979.




Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26896
1984. BahaHurican
1:30 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting mikatnight:


I wish quotes would also display the post # (looked for Sar's orig. post, but...), that way I wouldn't have to sound like an idiot. I have not seen this film! Is it only on DVD? I have the MT Katrina video in the HP guide, but this is (sadly) news to me. I remember Rocky, didn't know there was a movie.
Maybe I need to start petitioning the developers' blog again... I know we did ask about #s when they added the quote feature, but nothing ever came of it.

Post 1816.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22583
1983. Grothar
1:30 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Interesting article:

Excerpt and link

Alaska is a huge state with a wide range of climatic and ecological conditions. It is known for its rainforests, glaciers, boreal forest, tundra, peatlands, and meadows. Alaska contains 75% of U.S. national parks and 90% of U.S. wildlife refuges, by area. [1]

Over the past 50 years, temperatures across Alaska increased by an average of 3.4°F. Winter warming was even greater, rising by an average of 6.3°F. [2] The rate of warming in Alaska was twice the national average over that same period of time. Average annual temperatures in Alaska are projected to increase an additional 3.5 to 7°F by the middle of this century. [2]

Precipitation in Alaska has also increased slightly, but the trend is not significant. Climate projections indicate that Alaskan winters are likely to be wetter, and that summers could become drier, as rising air temperatures accelerate the rate of evaporation. [2] [3]

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26896
1982. BahaHurican
1:26 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:


Cindy and Katrina the year after that. It happens, and more often than those on the receiving end would like to believe.
When u think about it, such a trend should be expected. Hurricanes are steered [to grossly oversimplify] by upper air patterns around areas of high pressure. As long as a similar air flow set up exists, storms are going to travel similar paths. We had Dennis and Floyd here back in '99... examples abound. Even in the 1920s it happened here. The '26 Miami hurricane was preceded here by a so-called "Nassau" hurricane that took a similar path.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22583
1981. mikatnight
1:18 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting MechEngMet:



Well of course:    Fd = A Cd 1/2 roe V^2.      Force Drag increases as the square of the velocity.     

(In other words,     DUUUUUuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhh....)


Go ahead, make me feel a little dumber. It's Monday, bring it on, I can take it (shuffles off to the corner...)
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1980. mikatnight
1:13 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting BahaHurican:
[shudder] I have to limit my watching to like 1x per year now... it is too freaky for multiple viewings on my part... but definitely a wise reminder of what can happen and why the best possible preparations should be made.

BTW, it was Mike Thiess who had that video in MS with the storm surge of Katrina. That is another unforgettable scene...



I wish quotes would also display the post # (looked for Sar's orig. post, but...), that way I wouldn't have to sound like an idiot. I have not seen this film! Is it only on DVD? I have the MT Katrina video in the HP guide, but this is (sadly) news to me. I remember Rocky, didn't know there was a movie.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1979. yoboi
1:13 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Naga5000:


If you take such exception with Neapolitan and his posts, maybe ignoring the user or hiding the post is a more efficient way of going about things. This adds nothing to the conversation.



I told him thanks.....what more is needed?????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2408
1978. barbamz
1:12 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting goosegirl1:



I am not from Alaska, I do not share your expertise but I still have to respectfully disagree- climate of Alaska is changing very quickly for the warmer, and the trend will likely continue.

Link

Link


Goosegirl, thanks, but second link won't work for me ...
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6267
1977. MechEngMet
1:09 PM GMT on June 24, 2013

Quoting mikatnight:


I swear you hit the nail on the head. 100 mph or greater, and really bad things start to happen. And then there's this chart from the NWS:

Hurricane Damage Potential

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.


Well of course:    Fd = A Cd 1/2 roe V^2.      Force Drag increases as the square of the velocity.     

(In other words,     DUUUUUuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhh....)
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
1976. barbamz
1:09 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6267
1975. goosegirl1
1:09 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


And I realize some may take offense to me posting this, but we can't pretend that context doesn't exist, can we?

As record-breaking as this summer is for my home state, it is necessary to point out that in Alaska, specifically, no global warming signal exists (yet). The warming in the state from 1949-2012 is solely due to a giant step up in 1976-1977 due to the flip of the PDO from its negative phase to its positive phase. Our state is perhaps the most sensitive place in the world to the PDO. So far, that signal overwhelms everything else on a multidecadal scale, and there is no overall global warming signal, as much as some may wish that there was.

AK Temps:



Source

PDO:



Source



I am not from Alaska, I do not share your expertise but I still have to respectfully disagree- climate of Alaska is changing very quickly for the warmer, and the trend will likely continue.

Link

Link
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1238
1974. FIUStormChaser
1:07 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting mikatnight:


I swear you hit the nail on the head. 100 mph or greater, and really bad things start to happen. And then there's this chart from the NWS:

Hurricane Damage Potential

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.


Hurricane Andrew is a great example.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
1973. KoritheMan
1:06 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting BahaHurican:
the same hurricane???

There are multiple seasons with multiple strikes in the same area. 2004 with Frances and Jeanne are the most obvious recent examples...


Cindy and Katrina the year after that. It happens, and more often than those on the receiving end would like to believe.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21112
1972. BahaHurican
1:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting bigwes6844:
question everyone? and good morning i finally just got off. Has there ever been a hurricane hit the same city twice or more in the same season?
the same hurricane???

There are multiple seasons with multiple strikes in the same area. 2004 with Frances and Jeanne are the most obvious recent examples...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22583
1971. KoritheMan
1:03 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Good morning. I have some things to do this morning, so I took the time to write a blog before I start my day.

It's exclusive to Cosme, since it's the only game in town right now. Enjoy it or don't. It's quite up to you. :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21112
1970. BahaHurican
1:02 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting sar2401:

Yes, I did. Every single TV station on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts should be required to show that video once a day during hurricane season. I've never seen another video which showed the utter devastation that comes with a big storm, or did such a good job conveying the hopelessness of a family who made the choice to stay, and finally realize that the calvary is not coming. There was a documentary made about Rocky Vaccarella and his family. Some more information about him and the film is here.
[shudder] I have to limit my watching to like 1x per year now... it is too freaky for multiple viewings on my part... but definitely a wise reminder of what can happen and why the best possible preparations should be made.

BTW, it was Mike Thiess who had that video in MS with the storm surge of Katrina. That is another unforgettable scene...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22583
1969. mikatnight
1:01 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting islander101010:
i agree jeanne fram wilma could of been alot worse. i.ve never experienced over 100mph but they say the damage can increase substantially.


I swear you hit the nail on the head. 100 mph or greater, and really bad things start to happen. And then there's this chart from the NWS:

Hurricane Damage Potential

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1967. MechEngMet
12:59 PM GMT on June 24, 2013

Quoting Levi32:


And I realize some may take offense to me posting this, but we can't pretend that context doesn't exist, can we?

As record-breaking as this summer is for my home state, it is necessary to point out that in Alaska, specifically, no global warming signal exists (yet). The warming in the state from 1949-2012 is solely due to a giant step up in 1976-1977 due to the flip of the PDO from its negative phase to its positive phase. Our state is perhaps the most sensitive place in the world to the PDO. So far, that signal overwhelms everything else on a multidecadal scale, and there is no overall global warming signal, as much as some may wish that there was.

AK Temps:



Source

PDO:



Source


Levi,  Your patience is admirable.   Thank you.
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
1966. mikatnight
12:54 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting pcola57:


Morning mik..
Here's an info link to the CDC and their last weeks report..

Click HERE for more info


Thanks PC. Kind of a creepy page though. I had a strong urge to close it as quickly as possible, lest something contagious leak through my screen...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1965. Naga5000
12:53 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting yoboi:




and if anyone misses your post it will be repeated atleast 5 more times today......can you provide a timeline for the alaska report today???? That way I can set an alarm and tune in to get the information...... again thanks for making sure we are all informed......


If you take such exception with Neapolitan and his posts, maybe ignoring the user or hiding the post is a more efficient way of going about things. This adds nothing to the conversation.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3631
1964. barbamz
12:52 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
(Unofficial) Record-breaking temperature across the Globe
USA animation over the past week
(note may take a while to load)
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6267
1963. yoboi
12:52 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Now that a new day is here, time for a quick catch-up on the Alaskan heat wave. This first image shows the high temperatures forecast for the state on Thursday. Note that temps in the 80s are even predicted for the North Slope:

Alaska

Here is the NWS forecast for Fairbanks. Some may call this "normal summer weather", and I suppose it would be--if we were talking about, say, Chicago. Fairbanks is on schedule to end the month with June being by far the warmest month ever recorded there. (And with the long-range forecast showing highs in the 90s at least through next Sunday, July may be in the running, as well.)

Alaska

I realize a few sensitive types took offense at my posting this yesterday, but, well, it is what it is. After all, we can't pretend that it isn't happening, can we? ;-)




and if anyone misses your post it will be repeated atleast 5 more times today......can you provide a timeline for the alaska report today???? That way I can set an alarm and tune in to get the information...... again thanks for making sure we are all informed......
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2408
1962. islander101010
12:52 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
i agree jeanne fram wilma could of been alot worse. i.ve never experienced over 100mph but they say the damage can increase substantially.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4892
1961. Levi32
12:51 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Now that a new day is here, time for a quick catch-up on the Alaskan heat wave. This first image shows the high temperatures forecast for the state on Thursday. Note that temps in the 80s are even predicted for the North Slope:

Alaska

Here is the NWS forecast for Fairbanks. Some may call this "normal summer weather", and I suppose it would be--if we were talking about, say, Chicago. Fairbanks is on schedule to end the month with June being by far the warmest month ever recorded there. (And with the long-range forecast showing highs in the 90s at least through next Sunday, July may be in the running, as well.)

Alaska

I realize a few sensitive types took offense at my posting this yesterday, but, well, it is what it is. After all, we can't pretend that it isn't happening, can we? ;-)


And I realize some may take offense to me posting this, but we can't pretend that context doesn't exist, can we?

As record-breaking as this summer is for my home state, it is necessary to point out that in Alaska, specifically, no global warming signal exists (yet). The warming in the state from 1949-2012 is solely due to a giant step up in 1976-1977 due to the flip of the PDO from its negative phase to its positive phase. Our state is perhaps the most sensitive place in the world to the PDO. So far, that signal overwhelms everything else on a multidecadal scale, and there is no overall global warming signal, as much as some may wish that there was.

AK Temps:



Source

PDO:



Source
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
1960. Tropicsweatherpr
12:47 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
12z Best Track up to 45kts.

EP, 03, 2013062412, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1058W, 45, 998, TS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14574
1959. AussieStorm
12:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Now that a new day is here, time for a quick catch-up on the Alaskan heat wave. This first image shows the high temperatures forecast for the state on Thursday. Note that temps in the 80s are even predicted for the North Slope:

Alaska

Here is the NWS forecast for Fairbanks. Some may call this "normal summer weather", and I suppose it would be--if we were talking about, say, Chicago. Fairbanks is on schedule to end the month with June being by far the warmest month ever recorded there. (And with the long-range forecast showing highs in the 90s at least through next Sunday, July may be in the running, as well.)

Alaska

I realize a few sensitive types took offense at my posting this yesterday, but, well, it is what it is. After all, we can't pretend that it isn't happening, can we? ;-)


That would speed up the melting process immensely. Any flooding reported?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
1958. MahFL
12:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
look at that massive wave almost coming off of Africa,that could get interesting.


Looks too low to me, will run into South America.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.