Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is possible that they may be waiting for ASCAT or Microwave pass?

They cannot be certain that such a pass would hit the center of the storm. It's probably still a tropical depression on the basis that the center lacks a good bit of convection (though it has been increasing as of late).
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yes yes yes we seen that 100 too 1000 times all ready why not post some in we have not seen 100 too 1000 times




post some in new for once not some in we have seen overe 1000 times all ready


Relax and keep calm. Don't Panic.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yes yes yes we seen that 100 too 1000 times all ready why not post some in we have not seen 100 too 1000 times




post some in new for once not some in we have seen overe 1000 times all ready


To add one more. There are new members at WU that have not seen it.
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1654. Patrap
Uploaded on Sep 19, 2010
http://airboyd.tv

Courtesy: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data. The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure. The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds.

The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.

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1653. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Jeff Masters Flies in the NOAA P-3 Orion Hurricane Hunter as Flight Meteorologist into Hurricane Gilbert 1988






Pretty cool!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yes yes yes we seen that 100 too 1000 times all ready why not post some in we have not seen 100 too 1000 times




post some in new for once not some in we have seen overe 1000 times all ready


Some people have never seen it, including me.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1651. sar2401
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes yes yes we seen that 100 too 1000 times all ready why not post some in we have not seen 100 too 1000 times




post some in new for once not some in we have seen overe 1000 times all ready

Good heavens....
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16043
1650. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes yes yes we seen that 100 too 1000 times all ready why not post some in we have not seen 100 too 1000 times




post some in new for once not some in we have seen overe 1000 times all ready


I haven't seen them..
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Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Jeff Masters Flies in the NOAA P-3 Orion Hurricane Hunter as Flight Meteorologist into Hurricane Gilbert 1988







yes yes yes we seen that 100 too 1000 times all ready why not post some in we have not seen 100 too 1000 times




post some in new for once not some in we have seen overe 1000 times all ready
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Jim is also a meteorologist. And as far as I'm aware, wind is part of meteorology, which is what he's reporting on. Just sayin'. ;)


Lol. Please. I think we all know why he's truly there. I don't think they need his "expertise" on the wind.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Kind of ridiculous that Jim is at this event. Is he not a TWC employee? Ahh, what am I thinking? TWC is owned by NBC now and is no longer interested in reporting weather. This daredevil stunt is for ratings which is right up their alley.

Jim is also a meteorologist. And as far as I'm aware, wind is part of meteorology, which is what he's reporting on. Just sayin'. ;)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I did too. Was writing exactly what you put in your post when it came out, lol.


Is possible that they may be waiting for ASCAT or Microwave pass?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Kind of surprising, I thought that recent 2.5/2.5 would be enough, especially combined with the ADT numbers.

I did too. Was writing exactly what you put in your post when it came out, lol.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Jimbo in a cowboy hat. Priceless.


Kind of ridiculous that Jim is at this event. Is he not a TWC employee? Ahh, what am I thinking? TWC is owned by NBC now and is no longer interested in reporting weather. This daredevil stunt is for ratings which is right up their alley.
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Quoting geepy86:
Cantori is there
Those watching can see the credibility of a weather channel going away by the second as Cantore gives the weather play-by-play on this made for TV stunt.
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Jimbo in a cowboy hat. Priceless.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Kind of surprising, I thought that recent 2.5/2.5 would be enough, especially combined with the ADT numbers.


Maybe they are waiting for the CDO feature to mature and also waiting for an ASCAT or Microwave pass.
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Atlantic Outlook
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not quite yet unless NHC changes their mind.

EP, 03, 2013062400, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1041W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M,

Kind of surprising, I thought that recent 2.5/2.5 would be enough, especially combined with the ADT numbers.
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1638. Patrap
Published on Jun 21, 2013
Live stream video editing by http://ClimateState.com
Follow ClimateState on facebook for more climate research https://www.facebook.com/ClimateState

The floods followed some 36 hours of unusually heavy rainfall - some communities received six months of their normal rainfall in under two days. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/0...

Aerial view footage from CTV June 22 2013, via live stream excerpts
http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?binId=1.8...

Excerpts from podcast interview with Bob Sanford and host Anna Maria Tremonti from the The Current, episode "Severe flooding in southern Alberta" from June 21, 2013
http://www.cbc.ca/thecurrent/episode/...

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'd say we have a good shot at getting Cosme very shortly.

23/2345 UTC 12.3N 104.6W T2.5/2.5 03E -- East Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.9mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.3

Not quite yet unless NHC changes their mind.

EP, 03, 2013062400, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1041W, 30, 1005, TD
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So do we get to see 04E twice this season?







Seens someone had a fat finger this morning and accidently created it.
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I'd say we have a good shot at getting Cosme very shortly.

23/2345 UTC 12.3N 104.6W T2.5/2.5 03E -- East Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.9mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.3
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wow unreal flooding situation in Calgary Alberta Canada, good news 65,000 people were allowed to return home, but next on the list is Medicine Hat, were the elbow river is expected to crest tomorrow cutting the city in half, and they expect there hospital will be deystoyed there.I would post utube vids to the blog forum if I knew how to ,I'm such a noob.
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Quoting Torito:
Very nice tropical depression for this time of year....I hope it is not a signal to what is to come later this year...





In the East Pacific? A majority of the tropical cyclones there move out to sea anyways.
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1632. Patrap
NOAA G-5 Flys Katrina for a High Altitude Sonde Drop after she passed Fla into the GOM.



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Text review by the NHC of 1947 hurricane season which had two hurricanes pass through South Florida.

Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Any east puts it closer to Three-E regardless. It should be absorbed tomorrow and Tuesday.

Yeah.... I meant West, opps
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
Quoting geepy86:
Cantori is there


Just tweeted this photo not long ago.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
Quoting AussieStorm:


Needs to move quicker SE/E or it will be poof. The quicker it moves away, the better chance of survival.

Any east puts it closer to Three-E regardless. It should be absorbed tomorrow and Tuesday.
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Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Jeff Masters Flies in the NOAA P-3 Orion Hurricane Hunter as Flight Meteorologist into Hurricane Gilbert 1988






We know about Gilbert a 157 mph gust was recorded here on Island, but to me it was just a summer squall compared to Ivan, probably in part because of its fast movement , whereas Ivan 04 same to hang around forever!
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1626. geepy86
Cantori is there
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Turn on Discovery Channel to watch Nik Wallenda walk across Grand Canyon live! This guy is crazy for doing it in heat and winds of 30 mph.

What will happen if he um, falls? I hope they have a commercial ready. I think it's on a 10 second delay going by what I've read via twitter.

Nick Szankovics @weather_talk 13m
Really discovery channel? A 10 second delay on skywire? Wow. You can show two horses %$#@*&^%$#@(*# , but a human messing up?

It's on here live too.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1624. Patrap
Dr. Jeff Masters Flies in the NOAA P-3 Orion Hurricane Hunter as Flight Meteorologist into Hurricane Gilbert 1988




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Quoting AussieStorm:

95E down to 10%



1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE LARGE
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E TO THE EAST. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.


Needs to move SW/W or it will be poof into TD03. The quicker it moves away, the better chance of survival.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
Turn on Discovery Channel to watch Nik Wallenda walk across Grand Canyon live! This guy is crazy for doing it in heat and winds of 30+ mph.
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95E down to 10%



1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE LARGE
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E TO THE EAST. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST OR EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1620. barbamz
Wildfires Ravage Colorado, Causing Vacationers to Flee
By JACK HEALY, published: June 23, 2013

DENVER — Fast-growing wildfires fueled by thousands of dead and drought-stricken evergreen trees tore through the mountains of southern Colorado on Sunday, forcing vacationers to flee their cabins and campgrounds under a sky choked with pillars of gray and white smoke.

Whole article, late hello and good night as well ...
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Quoting AussieStorm:

95W also rip. gone from the NRL TC Page.
95E getting sheared to death from TD03.


Hey there, mate. 95E is getting sheared thanks to the upper-level outflow from 03E to the east.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1618. Torito
Very nice tropical depression for this time of year....I hope it is not a signal to what is to come later this year...




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1617. Patrap

Uploaded on Mar 31, 2011

Follow streamers of air into the eye of Katrina. Produced for our giant screen fulldome planetarium show, Dynamic Earth, for global release later in 2011. Sequence by the Advanced Visualization Lab, National Center for Supercomputing Applications, University of Illinois in collaboration with NCAR. Project collaborators include NASA Scientific Visualization Studio and Spitz, Inc.
To learn more about the project, visit:

extranet.spitzinc.com/download...

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1616. beell
Quoting MississippiWx:


The strong convective activity in the EPac will certainly help to amplify the STJ downstream in the Caribbean and Central Atlantic.



True. July and February are usually the climatological maximums for the Caribbean LLJ as well.
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Quoting Civicane49:


Looks like it.

95W also rip. gone from the NRL TC Page.
95E getting sheared to death from TD03.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
Well, the rain has stopped for about a few hours now. I've had 86.6mm or 3.41in in the last two days. Saturday the low was 37°F and a high of 57°F and Sunday the low was 47°F with a high of 57°F. Last nights low was 48°F and today's high is meant t get to 59°F. The rain will be back in a few hours as an east coast low is starting to develop which will give me enough time to clean up a bit outside. And my pot plants have risen about 6 inches from the water saving molecules soaking up the water.




Currently what I am seeing on radar.


If this low heads east or SE Sydney won't get much more rain, but if this low heads NE then Sydney will get another dumping of rain.



Would anyone like a Super Anti-Cyclone?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1613. Patrap
My first Storm, Sept 65.

Published on Jun 2, 2013
A HURRICANE CALLED BETSY - Cat 4 Tropical Cyclone Documentary | New Orleans | Baton Rouge - Recounts Hurricane Betsy's 3,000-mile trip from the Caribbean through the Bahamas, Miami, the Florida Keys, and along the Gulf Coast to New Orleans and Baton Rouge.
Hurricane Betsy was the first tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin to cause at least $1 billion (1965 USD) in damage. The third tropical cyclone, second named storm, and second hurricane of the 1965 Atlantic hurricane season, Betsy developed on August 27 in an area of disturbed weather east of the Windward Islands.

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Quoting beell:
Per the GFS, instability on a downward spiral over the central Atlantic this week. Just about to lose the ITCZ, lol.


06/23 18Z GFS 700mb theta-e. Valid 06/29, 18Z

And with modeled fast and deep easterly trades underneath 20-30 knot upper-level westerlies, the eastern Caribbean appears hostile as well. This could yield approximately 40 knots of zonal shear and not a good developmental set-up for the two low-latitude waves.


06/23 18Z GFS 850-200mb zonal shear. Valid 06/26, 18Z.


So as most of us have postulated, a quiet week ahead for most of the MDR at least.


The strong convective activity in the EPac will certainly help to amplify the STJ downstream in the Caribbean and Central Atlantic.

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Quoting Patrap:
Nice entry.

One I experienced, a flooder here.









Hurricane Juan was a hurricane that formed in October 1985 and looped twice near the Louisiana coast, causing torrential flooding for several days.

Juan was the costliest hurricane of the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season, and at the time was among the costliest of all historical U.S. hurricanes. Juan was the last of three hurricanes to affect Louisiana during the season, including Danny in August and Elena in early September.

At the time and throughout its lifetime, Juan was very disorganized, and resembled a subtropical cyclone with its winds well away from the center. A developing trough brought the storm northward, where it became better organized. Early on October 28, Juan reached hurricane strength, and hours later it reached a peak of 85 mph (140 km/h) winds.


Hurricane Juan near peak intensity

Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
85 mph (140 km/h)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa); 28.67 inHg
Fatalities 24 direct, 50 indirect
Damage $2.8 billion (1985 USD)
(Includes indirect losses)
Areas affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle
Part of the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season

Gee. I wish we could get a storm like that over Texas. We haven't seen a real State-Soaker in almost 3 years, if you want to count Hermine (2010) as one, but if you don't count it, its been since Allison (2001)
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I'm really not buying the MJO Pulse the GFS is forecasting to verify. The pulse is for one over-hyped, which is typical of the GFS to do, and also it is much slower, which is also typical of the GFS, because timing and the GFS do not mix well.
We aren't going to be able to get a handle on what is to come for about a week, because the GFS' forecasts go out much farther than any other global models do, meaning that the more reasonable UKMET and EURO won't be picking up any leftovers that the GFS dropped because of its Super-MJO in the Eastern Pacific literally blinding it. The GFS is one of the Least accurate models in forecasting the MJO, which is to it's downfall and really is the true reason that it still falls short to the EURO, that is one of the more accurate at forecasting the MJO. I won't be paying attention too much to the models for 5-6 days until the MJO is already over Octant 8, and forcing the GFS to fix it's forecast and clearing up it's vision in spotting storms in the Atlantic.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




95E rip


Looks like it.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE LARGE
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E TO THE EAST. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST OR EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON THREE-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THREE-E
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMEP3.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN




95E rip
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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