Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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1808. sar2401
Quoting nigel20:
This is probably some of the strongest winds ever recorded on video during an hurricane.

Hurricane Charley (Part 2) Extreme Eyewall Category 5 Wind Gust !

I've seen this one before, but I always have the same thoughts. First, I don't see any gust at 3:08 I can clearly identify as being stronger than others before it. Second, I'm amazed the gas station canopy survived as long as it did. Third, the big sign with prices survived apparently unscathed...and the price of premium was only $1.89! I hope we won't see another Charley, and I really doubt we'll ever see premium at $1.89 again. :-)
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Hey,

Just read the Rolling Stone article. What a trip. Miami has not changed one bit.

I actually know a couple of the people quoted in that story. it is so true, all of it. A bit embellished maybe, but definitely true.
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1806. nigel20
Quoting Civicane49:


Hey Nigel!

Indeed, 03E is organizing nicely and should become Tropical Storm Cosme very soon, if not one already.

Agreed.
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1805. sar2401
Quoting centex:
The ridge over Texas is forecast to move out to four corners next week. Any waves will be allowed to come on in. Nothing forecast but I think with door open we should watch.

Looks like there should be a very strong ridge form over the central plains by Wednesday. A developing shortwave over the Pacific now should round the top of the ridge and develop a pretty good MCS by Friday and move into the southeast. If the low turns out to be a s strong as the Euro is depicting, it will present a nice area of weakness to any systems that do develop in the western Caribbean. Might be an interesting week coming up.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
CMC to 180hrs. Which way will it go :)


CMC says you've got a hurricane knocking on your door in 10 days.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
I'm off to bed too good night.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Civicane!
03E is looking very good at the moment.


Hey Nigel!

Indeed, 03E is organizing nicely and should become Tropical Storm Cosme very soon, if not one already.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Looks like the GFS is back on with development. Thats to models now in agreement GFS,CMC. Same time frame 240 hrs out. 10 days. Lets see if it can keep it this time. Lights out, I'm off to bed.
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1800. nigel20
Quoting Civicane49:

Hey Civicane!
03E is looking very good at the moment.
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 998.3mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.5 3.7
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 830 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE-E TO THE EAST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CREATED BY THE DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON THREE-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THREE-E
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMEP3.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1796. centex
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
CMC to 180hrs. Which way will it go :)

In next 10 days Texas rules.
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CMC to 180hrs. Which way will it go :)

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1794. centex
The ridge over Texas is forecast to move out to four corners next week. Any waves will be allowed to come on in. Nothing forecast but I think with door open we should watch.
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1793. nigel20
This is probably some of the strongest winds ever recorded on video during an hurricane.

Hurricane Charley (Part 2) Extreme Eyewall Category 5 Wind Gust !
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We're not going to get run to run consistency this far out in this kind of situation. I think that's a little too much to expect, since there is rarely a uniform agreement amongst the models regarding the evolution of the MJO, particularly with a pulse this strong (look at the enormous circulation/convective envelope associated with TD3-E).

As I've been saying, what's important isn't the run to run consistency (or lack thereof) of a tropical cyclone; it's the relative stubbornness in the models to see lowering pressures in the Gulf of Mexico during the first or second week of July as the upward MJO (currently over the east Pacific) enhances convection in the western Atlantic region. Given its west to east progression, the Gulf will feel it first.

It doesn't mean we're going to get a tropical cyclone, but this kind of pattern strongly promotes upward motion and the formation of widespread cloudiness and showers, which under the right conditions can go on to spawn tropical cyclones.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

GEFS


GEFS BIAS CORRECTED


ECMWF


UKMET


All indicating strong MJO in section 8 & 1.

From: Link

Not only does the GEFS indicate a strong MJO pulse, but it keeps the pulse in octants 8 and 1 instead of sending it along the usual loop. If this turns out to be true, then we can definitely expect an active July. Even if we go by the ECMWF forecast, we should still probably get a couple storms. My thinking is 2-3 storms in July, allowing for room for a quick spin-up somewhere, and our first hurricane.
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Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Looks like the storm is back on the GFS.THE MJO IS RESPONSING TO THE MODELING.MAYBE CHANTAL WILL COME AFTER ALL.


Yes, maybe. But they've been here before with this storm. At 240 hours we'll see if any of the other models show anything. I think the GFS is having problems with amplifying that trough or not. But something to keep an eye on. :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Looks like the storm is back on the GFS.THE MJO IS RESPONSING TO THE MODELING.MAYBE CHANTAL WILL COME AFTER ALL.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
Quoting sar2401:

Good heavens....
This is what happens when u spend too much time on the blog... Taz has been around so long he's seen everything... and then forgets everybody else hasn't been here as long.

Some of the stuff Pat posts is just mindboggling... have u seen the Vaccarella family video from Katrina?
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1786. Dakster
What is with the MJO loopback... That isn't fair.
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1785. nigel20
03E
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:

GEFS


GEFS BIAS CORRECTED


ECMWF


UKMET


All indicating strong MJO in section 8 & 1.

From: Link
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1783. Skyepony (Mod)
Senex9 mission was over looks like Indianapolis.
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1782. Patrap
India Floods 2013: Rescue Efforts Hampered By Bad Weather
By RAFIQ MAQBOOL 06/23/13


GAUCHAR, India — Bad weather hampered efforts Sunday to evacuate thousands of people stranded in the northern India state of Uttarakhand, where at least 1,000 people have died in monsoon flooding and landslides, army officials said.

The army resumed helicopter flights to rescue stranded people late Sunday after rain stopped and dense fog lifted in the Himalayan region, Brig. Uma Maheshwar said.

Thousands of people were still stranded in high mountain passes in the temple town of Badrinath and rescue efforts were concentrated on getting them to safety.

Troops built makeshift bridges at several places, Maheshwar said.

Despite poor visibility, more than 2,000 people were transported by helicopter to relief camps in the state capital, Dehradun, said Priya Joshi, an air force spokeswoman.

India's national disaster response force used drone aircraft to locate survivors in remote areas that remained inaccessible.

Hundreds of thousands of devout Hindus make a pilgrimage to Uttarakhand, visiting four of Hinduism's holiest shrines in the state during the summer months. The tourists usually head down to the plains before the monsoon breaks in July. But this year, early rains caught hundreds of thousands of tourists, pilgrims and local residents.

The crisis began when torrential rains washed away homes and roads and triggered landslides that cut off communication links with large parts of the state nearly a week ago.

State Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna told reporters late Saturday that the death toll had reached 1,000. The exact number of people who have died in the heavy downpours and flooding of the Ganges River and its tributaries won't be known until rescue efforts end, he said.
About 10,000 army and paramilitary troops, members of India's disaster management agency and volunteers have taken part in six days of rescue and relief efforts. The army has rescued more than 80,000 people by road and air, said Amit Chandola, a state government spokesman.

More rain was expected in the worst-hit Chamoli and Uttarkashi districts over the next few days, said Anand Sharma of the state's meteorological office.

Sharma said the rains in Uttarakhand were the heaviest in nearly 80 years.

In the small town of Gauchar, where the army has set up a camp for those rescued from the temple town of Kedarnath, anxious pilgrims waited for word about relatives yet to be rescued by army helicopters.

"I'm waiting to hear from my daughter and her husband," sobbed Indu Bal Singh, 65, who became separated from her daughter, son-in-law and two grandchildren. Singh was among a group of pilgrims who were rescued first because of her age.

Singh, who has waited two days, refused to return to her home in the eastern Jharkhand state until she is reunited with her family. "I won't move from here until I hear they are safe," she said.

Across India, volunteer groups and ordinary citizens were contributing clothes, food, blankets and money for residents of Uttarakhand whose homes have been washed away by the floods.

The United States will provide $150,000 in emergency relief to families living in remote areas of the state, U.S. Ambassador Nancy J. Powell said Sunday.

"We are deeply saddened by the tremendous personal loss and the damage to houses, public buildings, temples, roads, and bridges, as well as safe drinking water sources, livestock, and agricultural land," Powell said.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


That's a strong on too, we'll see.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Terra pass on 03E



Set your comments to 50 a page. Having to scroll down after quoting happens in chrome. I like new WU in Firefox. Once in a blue moon I go classic. I don't look like a mod from my view then.

I prefer the classic. It's just me and I do like to read back.
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Got a nice deep low off the Southern Western Australian coast. 961mb, take that TD03. LOL

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1778. Skyepony (Mod)
Terra pass on 03E


Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah same... I did try the new format but the fact that I have to scroll down 200 comments just to comment on a post I quoted is what is keeping me from using it.

Set your comments to 50 a page. Having to scroll down after quoting happens in chrome. I like new WU in Firefox. Once in a blue moon I go classic. I don't look like a mod from my view then.
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1777. nigel20
Good evening friends!

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 23 Jun 2013

Average for last 30 days: 8.1
Average for last 90 days: 6.5
Daily contribution to SOI calculation: -9.2
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1776. sar2401
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


It might take longer but so far major projections (IPCC) underestimated the sea level rise. James Hansen things even 5 meter are possible by the end of the century.


There's no question that the sea level is rising. As was admited in the video, how high and how fast are still largely unknown. There are models that show everything from about half a meter by the end of the century to 21 meters. Obviously, one of those estimates is wrong. Which one is correct is still to be shown. Much like hurricane models are proved correct or incorrect as we get closer to landfall, we'll know soon enough which models for sea level rise are correct when it begins to happen in earnest. If it's going to be 21 meters, there shouldn't be much nightlife in South Beach within a very short period of time.
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1775. Skyepony (Mod)
Ocean heat content for 03E
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1774. Dakster
Looks like my basin is getting its MOJO...

Still a long way from the height of the season. I hope the MOJO is out of our basin during the late August time frame.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Rubbish

Edit: Great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies


Why rubbish?
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Where's StormW?


He banned himself, he has his own blog now. Check TA13 blog I posted a link there.
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1770. sar2401
Quoting CaribBoy:


We got 110MPH gusts... Earl was pretty strong. Though damages were limited.. I think because people in the N Leewards have learned from the past and especially from devastating hurricane Luis in 1995.

I'm sure that it was quite an experience, although it seems the highest measured winds on St. Martin were 88 mph. It was the video I was commenting on. You know, some rain, palm trees getting blown back and forth by the wind, and some kid in the background hollering "Wooo-hooo". Just not an Oscar award winning kind of thing. :-)
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Where's StormW?




do we have too start this you no what happen



stormW been bannd from the blogs for the last 2 too 3 season now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Geoff..


The iconic picture
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Where's StormW?
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Quoting leofarnsworth:
In case anyone missed this...



23 JUNE 2013 - 20H36br class="blaster" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; height: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 0px; clear: both; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1px;">Man-made particles lowered hurricane frequency: studyA television reporter watches waves hit a pier before the arrival of Hurricane Sandy October 29, 2012 just off the Boardwalk in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Higher levels of air pollution reduced the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes and other tropical storms for most of the 20th century, a study said Sunday.A television reporter watches waves hit a pier before the arrival of Hurricane Sandy October 29, 2012 just off the Boardwalk in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Higher levels of air pollution reduced the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes and other tropical storms for most of the 20th century, a study said Sunday.AFP -Higher levels of air pollution reduced the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes and other tropical storms for most of the 20th century, a study said Sunday.Adding to evidence for mankind's impact on the weather system, the probe found a link between these powerful storms and aerosols, the scientific term for specks of matter suspended in a gas.Aerosols can occur in natural form -- as dusty volcanic plumes, clouds or fog -- but are also man-made, such as sooty particles from burning coal or oil.The study focused on particles from North America and Europe that were generated mainly from burning fossil fuels.Researchers from the UK Met Office created weather simulations covering the period 1860 to 2050.They found that tropical storms were much less frequent during periods when emissions of man-made aerosols increased over the North Atlantic."Increases in anthropogenic emissions (particularly of aerosols) through most of the last century is found to have reduced hurricane activity," co-author Ben Booth told AFP."The cooling impact of man-emitted aerosols may have had a more important regional impact on climate than we previous appreciated."Aerosols reflect solar rays and change the brightness of clouds, which affects how much of the Sun's heat is projected onto the surface of the sea, the authors suggest.Ocean warmth provides the raw energy for tropical storms, which in extreme conditions can brew into destructive hurricanes.Conversely, the study found that measures since the 1980s to tackle pollution and improve air quality reduced levels of aerosols -- and in turn ramped up hurricane activity."The clean-up of industrial aerosols in the last 20 years, while being beneficial for human health and linked to a recovery of African Sahel rains since the 1980s droughts, may have contributed to increases in Atlantic hurricane activity," Booth said by email.The authors said their study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, is the first to demonstrate a link between aerosols and Atlantic tropical storms.The research team postulates that in the future, it will be Earth-warming greenhouse gases, much longer-lasting than aerosols, that will exert the most influence on tropical storm frequency.Previous work published in Nature Climate Change had said that while the number of tropical storms was not projected to increase in future, their intensity was.The hurricane season runs from June to November. For 2013, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted 13 to 20 "named" storms, seven to 11 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes.


Rubbish

Edit: Great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
All quiet in the Atlantic basin right now. That should change in a few weeks.

look at that massive wave almost coming off of Africa,that could get interesting.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
In case anyone missed this...



23 JUNE 2013 - 20H36  
Man-made particles lowered hurricane frequency: studyA television reporter watches waves hit a pier before the arrival of Hurricane Sandy October 29, 2012 just off the Boardwalk in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Higher levels of air pollution reduced the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes and other tropical storms for most of the 20th century, a study said Sunday.A television reporter watches waves hit a pier before the arrival of Hurricane Sandy October 29, 2012 just off the Boardwalk in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Higher levels of air pollution reduced the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes and other tropical storms for most of the 20th century, a study said Sunday.AFP - Higher levels of air pollution reduced the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes and other tropical storms for most of the 20th century, a study said Sunday.Adding to evidence for mankind's impact on the weather system, the probe found a link between these powerful storms and aerosols, the scientific term for specks of matter suspended in a gas.Aerosols can occur in natural form -- as dusty volcanic plumes, clouds or fog -- but are also man-made, such as sooty particles from burning coal or oil.The study focused on particles from North America and Europe that were generated mainly from burning fossil fuels.Researchers from the UK Met Office created weather simulations covering the period 1860 to 2050.They found that tropical storms were much less frequent during periods when emissions of man-made aerosols increased over the North Atlantic."Increases in anthropogenic emissions (particularly of aerosols) through most of the last century is found to have reduced hurricane activity," co-author Ben Booth told AFP."The cooling impact of man-emitted aerosols may have had a more important regional impact on climate than we previous appreciated."Aerosols reflect solar rays and change the brightness of clouds, which affects how much of the Sun's heat is projected onto the surface of the sea, the authors suggest.Ocean warmth provides the raw energy for tropical storms, which in extreme conditions can brew into destructive hurricanes.Conversely, the study found that measures since the 1980s to tackle pollution and improve air quality reduced levels of aerosols -- and in turn ramped up hurricane activity."The clean-up of industrial aerosols in the last 20 years, while being beneficial for human health and linked to a recovery of African Sahel rains since the 1980s droughts, may have contributed to increases in Atlantic hurricane activity," Booth said by email.The authors said their study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, is the first to demonstrate a link between aerosols and Atlantic tropical storms.The research team postulates that in the future, it will be Earth-warming greenhouse gases, much longer-lasting than aerosols, that will exert the most influence on tropical storm frequency.Previous work published in Nature Climate Change had said that while the number of tropical storms was not projected to increase in future, their intensity was.The hurricane season runs from June to November. For 2013, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted 13 to 20 "named" storms, seven to 11 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes.
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All quiet in the Atlantic basin right now. That should change in a few weeks.

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1762. hydrus
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Joy Luck down here in Palm Springs.
Wuzup Geoff..
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Did a blog on Tropical Depression Three-E is anybody is interested.

Tropical Depression Three-E forms, expected to become a hurricane
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Quoting sar2401:

Got it. I still use the classic format also. Maybe I'm just a Luddite or something, but it seems to me that the classic format is a lot easier to navigate and uses up a lot less resources on my creaky old computer.

Yeah same... I did try the new format but the fact that I have to scroll down 200 comments just to comment on a post I quoted is what is keeping me from using it.
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Quoting sar2401:

No, South Alabama. Denial? Not at all, but I do wonder if, 40 years from now, everything in that video will all come true either.
The Rolling Stone article that the video was based on is very interesting. Miami has so any problems now that it won't take much sea level rise to bring on catastrophe. Drinking water and flooding, to name two problems that seem almost unsolvable. Link
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Quoting sar2401:

No, South Alabama. Denial? Not at all, but I do wonder if, 40 years from now, everything in that video will all come true either.


It might take longer but so far major projections (IPCC) underestimated the sea level rise. James Hansen thinks even 5 meter are possible by the end of the century.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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