Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I know the GFS forecast is a way out but Chantal looks ominous!


I live in PCB, where are you located?
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Just because its kind of interesting EPAC ....A dancing duet







Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
I know the GFS forecast is a way out but Chantal looks ominous!
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I've come to not look at the ECMWF much unless it's mentioned; at least, not until we have a developed storm. It has missed every cyclone this season, in every basin. The twin Indian Ocean cyclones, Alvin and Barbara, and now Andrea and Barry.

GFS has been decent, but the CMC takes the cake.
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Oh wonderful, we have a disintegrating tropical storm in veracruz and doc is talking about deadly monsoons....ricder...splwannabee
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Quoting hurricanes2018:
i see a spin off the coast here

There was a 1020 mb low marked there
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
I wonder how this MCS is going to behave this afternoon, it was forecasted to putter out before noon, but recent WRF model showed this plowing through to the south and intensifying this afternoon. Right now forecast calls for no rain here with a high in low 90's, even SPC made no adjustment in their outlook as well. It's certainly behaving like it wants to keep going.





It has seperated itself from the main forcing to it's north and west, but i am wondering if it has managed to create a large enough cold pool to keep it driving? Anyone think this keep rolling on this afternoon?



I saw that feature and thought of the "d" word we all argue about :)) It's in the right place at the right time, and doesn't look like it's weakening to me. I live in the mid-atlantic region and it just looks like a classic set-up for t-storms late tonight unless it putters out.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1230
Quoting Dakster:


That isn't a good forecast... for the gulf coast.
You are right about that not being good for us.Kind of sends a memory flash of Ivan in 2004.Everyone just needs to be prepared this year even if GFS doesn't verify.
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Quoting hydrus:


That answers my question, cloud tops definitely warming on that satellite picture.
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I wonder how this MCS is going to behave this afternoon, it was forecasted to putter out before noon, but recent WRF model showed this plowing through to the south and intensifying this afternoon. Right now forecast calls for no rain here with a high in low 90's, even SPC made no adjustment in their outlook as well. It's certainly behaving like it wants to keep going.





It has seperated itself from the main forcing to it's north and west, but i am wondering if it has managed to create a large enough cold pool to keep it driving? Anyone think this keep rolling on this afternoon?

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It would be very surprising if the 12z Euro showed development. Forecasting tropical cyclone formation more than 3-4 days out is a major weakness in that model, it missed a lot of storms. If we can get the CMC on board then that would be good.
Very true the Euro struggles with TC development out that far, The GFS is best model to show TC development, the Euro is usually solid with its track once the system develops, and the CMC is the worse case scenario for a storm as it overdoes it a lot; but it works best with stronger storms.
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
This would be the third system for June if the GFS verifies.
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Best model for Barry

OFCL 55.5
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Good afternoon friends!
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Quoting Ricki13th:
Much stronger on this run, it might be depicting a Hurricane. Its still far out but the GFS knows how to sniff out systems before any other model. The track looks similar to Cindy of 2005. Which I find very interesting; but nevertheless, can't wait to the Euro; before I feel confident.

It would be very surprising if the 12z Euro showed development. Forecasting tropical cyclone formation more than 3-4 days out is a major weakness in that model, it missed a lot of storms. If we can get the CMC on board then that would be good.

Edit: 12z CMC just finished and had a weak system in the Gulf of Honduras at the end of its run. Not much, but it's a start.

Link
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


How did the EURO fare with TS Barry? Which model nailed it best?

I would the GFS it knows way ahead of the other models that a Storm could from in the GOH and move  across the Yucatan into the BOC. However, since the MJO was in a downward phase, it never hhad model support. Keep an eye on the GFS now that it has made its transition from winter into the tropical season.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


How did the EURO fare with TS Barry? Which model nailed it best?


GFS did the best.Euro came late and was overland all the time.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14249
Great blog topic. A minor point, a casual reader might be confused by this passage.

"Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean ..."

Absorbing heat might be mistaken for heating, which could leave the reader puzzled, such as: if the water is absorbing more heat, isn't it undergoing more heating? Of course, "heating" as used here refers to an increase in temperature, and differential heating refers to differences in surface temperature. I don't think the blog's wording needs to be changed, just to point out the issue for anyone wondering.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


How did the EURO fare with TS Barry? Which model nailed it best?
Im 100% sure that the GFS was almost perfect with Barry with strength and track.
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Good afternoon! It was interesting to learn that all continents, save Antarctica, have their own monsoons. Earth's climate systems and her ability to heat and cool herself using storms and currents are amazing stuff. It's a pity that we humans spend more time trying to find ways to muck them up rather than learning to live with them harmoniously...

Speaking of storms, what is going on with the blob left behind from the cold-front that went off the coast of GA and SC? It's been sitting there for two-days and mushrooming and dissipating and then blowing up again. That is a bad spot for blobs to hang out and it needs to go home before it starts trouble!
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Much stronger on this run, it might be depicting a Hurricane. Its still far out but the GFS knows how to sniff out systems before any other model. The track looks similar to Cindy of 2005. Which I find very interesting; but nevertheless, can't wait to the Euro; before I feel confident. 
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From the blog entry: " There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed."

Ten days ago just by chance I came across a huge and worldwide problem which is rarely noticed. I didn't know anything of it before: sand mining. I've already started to collect a lot of links for further informations, not the least because it is somehow connected with the problems of climate change by eroding beaches, coasts and riverbanks and make them more vulnerable for flooding.

I don't have the time right now to make a whole blog about this problem, so here are only some links to the situation in India:



Video is from 17.02.2012

From subhead on youtube:

Illegal sand mining along the Gomti river destroys farmland in Uttarakhand.

About the video: Farmers from the Telihat village are losing their fertile fields because of illegal sand mining along the embankments of
Gomti river. The large-scale extraction of sand leads to erosion of channel banks and uncontrolled flooding of the fields. Without the embankment, the fields of wheat, pulses and potatoes fall apart. Flood drains the minerals from the soil. As a result, the farmers production deminishes.


Site about sand mining in India

Recent video (but of poor quality) Illegal mining leading to massive destruction in Uttarakhand

Very good video about the problems in southern India: Goa - Sand mining ban blatantly violated

Edit: Wikipedia gives an overview on sand mining.

Good evening, I have to leave for now.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5930
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And having the Euro on board would be a consensus.


How did the EURO fare with TS Barry? Which model nailed it best?
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
DEEPER AND COOLER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...EXPECT MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND...WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST...THEN DEEPEN
THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING FURTHER INLAND.
GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...WITH PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDWEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS SPREADING
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THESE HIGH CLOUDS
LATER TODAY...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT A FEW LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
ALONG THE COAST RIGHT NOW...WHICH ARE RAPIDLY PULLING OUT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY NICE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
YESTERDAY...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS TREND WILL ALSO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

HOWEVER...THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS THIS SECONDARY TROUGH SLIDES INTO PLACE ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE 1448Z BLENDED TPW IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
SYSTEM TAPPING INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL AIR FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.77 INCHES BETWEEN ABOUT
135 WEST AND 150 WEST ALONG OR JUST BELOW 40 NORTH. EVEN HIGHER
VALUES ARE FURTHER WEST. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN POINTED AT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THESE
DAYS...GIVING THEM THE MUCH NEEDED RAIN. AS FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...WITH PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS AND A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. THE MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD DEEPEN
QUICKLY ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOR SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE VALLEYS. THE MODERATE TO
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH EVEN STRONGER WEST
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE US INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS VICINITY AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION THIS DAY.
INLAND AREAS WILL THEN START TO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SURGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND MAY BE EVEN HOTTER THAN THAT...WITH SUMMER
LIKE HEAT RETURNING TO THE INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND
DESERTS. MEANWHILE...COASTAL AREAS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO NORMAL
RANGES...BUT SINCE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING BUT WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW AT BEST...THINK A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
TURN FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR MUCH BEFORE FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR NOW.
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Hurricane Preparation 2013

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.








Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit


NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com
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i see a spin off the coast here
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 29445
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Give it about 2-3 days to see if the GFS pushes up the timeframe and then we'll need to watch what would be the catalyst for development in the Western Caribbean.


And having the Euro on board would be a consensus.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14249
Nothing seems robust rolling off the coast of Africa for the time being, but imo if shear relaxes and dry air goes away in the Eastern Caribbean and one of these waves enters the region then that is how I see we get development in the Western Caribbean.

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Link

Ya gotta love this guy. He's so passionate about his weather, isn't he?

-L
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I do not like the pattern this year...At all.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183


SOME NOTES ON THE 2006 MONSOON at INDIA

The portion of the ITCZ lying over India and nearby countries in summer is known as the monsoon trough. The southeasterly winds that originally blew on the southern side of this trough start to blow more from the south and southwest due to the coriolis force (which turns winds towards the right in the northern hemisphere), bringing moisture in from the Arabian sea over most of the subcontinent. In the case of northeastern India, moisture also comes in from the Bay of Bengal (BOB).
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Quoting boltdwright:
GFS 12Z consistent again. Looks like it could possibly be an active start to July. Lets give it some more time though. Still needs to be consistent for a few more runs, and I still want to see another model come on board.



Correct, getting some consistency which is a good sign. Let's see what happens. The GFS has been saying for days that another storm would develop in the WCARB.
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Give it about 2-3 days to see if the GFS pushes up the timeframe and then we'll need to watch what would be the catalyst for development in the Western Caribbean.
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hydrus, that purple blob in the GOM maps doesn't look good -- or is that a particularly sunny spot in the forecast?

Aside from that, I see the remnants of TD2 finally did wander up the Mex coastline to Tampico after all. lol. It actually looks more robust on the water-vapor imagery now than last evening, so maybe it'll drift up to water Texas -- getting dry again, & Houston is 9 inches behind in rainfall for the year.
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And if it hits the Gulf Coast, we have a trifecta in similiar landfalling storms from 2005...
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Quoting TampaCat5:

What is the likelihood of an 11 day forecast of a cyclone verifying? It is interesting, but does the GFS really have any clue that far out?

The odds of it verifying exactly? Virtually zero. But with the MJO coming in it would be expected that something should form 1-2 weeks from now. The GFS may be a little too fast as it begins development in about a week, but the Caribbean will be the place to watch for development. We need some other models to come on board though.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 12z GFS came in similar to 0z and 6z, a tad slower this run, and also considerably stronger. It also brought the storm into the Northeast as a big storm. 982mb on full resolution at landfall, 264 hours:



Regular resolution at landfall:



300 hours:

Interesting to see what the 12z Euro has should come out within the hour.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 12z GFS came in similar to 0z and 6z, a tad slower this run, and also considerably stronger. It also brought the storm into the Northeast as a big storm. 982mb on full resolution at landfall, 264 hours:



Regular resolution at landfall:



300 hours:



That isn't a good forecast... for the gulf coast.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 12z GFS came in similar to 0z and 6z, a tad slower this run, and also considerably stronger. It also brought the storm into the Northeast as a big storm. 982mb on full resolution at landfall, 264 hours:



Regular resolution at landfall:



300 hours:


What is the likelihood of an 11 day forecast of a cyclone verifying? It is interesting, but does the GFS really have any clue that far out?
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GFS sticking with the gulf system.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
Climate Wars


[...]Climate change is to the 21st Century as total war and nuclear weapons were to the 20th,” says independent journalist and military historian Gwynne Dyer.
...


....Dyer spent two years talking to the scientists who understand the dangers of climate change but, more significantly, he interviewed military leaders who are already preparing for what he terms “The Climate Wars“.

Make all the disparaging, dismissive and ultimately delusional comments you like about “climate science” but don’t kid yourself an organisation like the US Navy is mapping out battle plans based on climate change, just for a giggle.

Admiral Denny McGinn retired a few years ago as Deputy Chief of US Naval Operations for Warfighting Requirements and says:
“The military has to deal with not so much politics as the reality of mission … [which] in this case is to …. respond to the failure of nation states on the very edge of sustainability and the pressures of climate change with attendant natural disasters, drought or crop failure.”

He’s one of a dozen three- and four-star military officers who’ve been involved in studying and planning for what happens when regions as diverse as southern Europe, Mexico, north China, northern India and Brazil start starving to death through droughts and floods.

“The military get it that climate change is going to be a cause of much more instability,” says Admiral McGinn, because history has proven people raid and invade before they starve.
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Thank you very much, Dr. Masters, for covering the desaster in India and providing a lot of connected background information (including the link to the always interesting blog from Prof. Petley).

For those who haven't yet seen the impressive storm video from Straubing/Bavaria which I've posted on the old blog just before the new entry was up: I've transfered it and more informations to my blog.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5930
The 12z GFS came in similar to 0z and 6z, a tad slower this run, and also considerably stronger. It also brought the storm into the Northeast as a big storm. 982mb on full resolution at landfall, 264 hours:



Regular resolution at landfall:



288 hours:



300 hours:

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Oh My !!!

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
Quoting Patrap:
This new atmosphere has become a new Beast,..as we add Warmth to the Planet globally, we unleash the following.

A 1F increase in Global temps, produces a 10% increase in Global Water Vapor. More Water Vapor holds more energy, and well,were seeing that more and more,Globally.

A PHD once told me, the atmosphere trends toward chaos, but now, in a more potent fashion.

As we add more Co2 things are going to become even more unstable,atmospherically.



So true Pat! I hope we can come up with something to combat it.
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Quoting hydrus:
Very impressive blow up of thunderstorms.


I am driving back down to Tampa from Tallahassee this evening. Should make for some fun weather watching!
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GFS 12Z consistent again. Looks like it could possibly be an active start to July. Lets give it some more time though. Still needs to be consistent for a few more runs, and I still want to see another model come on board.

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models do anything with the tail end of this front?
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Very impressive blow up of thunderstorms.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
Dr. Masters when you flew into hurricanes did you take any C02 readings inside the storm?
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.