Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El NiƱo years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Kind of makes you wonder about patterns getting stuck though.


Especially after Jeanne did a lood-da-loop North of the Bahamas to land in the same place as Frances.

BTW the name of the town was Fort Meade - and Ivan went over a a LLC - not as a storm.
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1857. zampaz
Quoting bigwes6844:
man look at that high!!!

If you have a moment, could you please explain the significance of this?
(This is my first "tropical" year...)
-z
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:

man look at that high!!!
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Quoting daddyjames:


Yea, come to think about it - certainly not something to necessarily be proud of :D


Kind of makes you wonder about patterns getting stuck though.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
lets see 230 am! lol!


lol. That may be a reason.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


OOPS meant monster trough. Why would I've have ridge on the brain I can't imagine. My bad. :)
lets see 230 am! lol!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
heatwave possible?


OOPS meant monster trough. Why would I've have ridge on the brain I can't imagine. My bad. :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. That's ok with me. The tail end of Ivan actually hit near Sabine Pass as a depression that year.


Yea, come to think about it - certainly not something to necessarily be proud of :D
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Quoting daddyjames:


2004 Florida still has you beat :P


Lol. That's ok with me. The tail end of Ivan actually hit near Sabine Pass as a depression that year.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah appears to be. Best I can tell ECMWF has small low in the NW CAR and another low/storm in the EPAC and a monster ridge over the gulf coast at the end of their run. NAVGEM had a low in NW CAR at the end of their run at 180hrs. So not a consensus but maybe something to look out for possible development.
heatwave possible?
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Sar - you still with us?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I know of one example anyway.

In 1886, four hurricanes struck the Texas coast with the first and last both hitting Sabine Pass.





2004 Florida still has you beat :P
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Quoting bigwes6844:
thats more of a weak TS athome?


Yeah appears to be. Best I can tell ECMWF has small low in the NW CAR and another low/storm in the EPAC and a monster ridge over the gulf coast at the end of their run. NAVGEM had a low in NW CAR at the end of their run at 180hrs. So not a consensus but maybe something to look out for possible development.
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Quoting FOREX:


Can someone recommend a good starting website to learn meteorology?


There is MetEd

Free registration, and the modules take some time. but it is a cool resource to learn about weather and interpreting charts.

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I know of one example anyway.

In 1886, four hurricanes struck the Texas coast with the first and last both hitting Sabine Pass.



Nice work at home! Those storms went over the same area! 4 months a part!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
question everyone? and good morning i finally just got off. Has there ever been a hurricane hit the same city twice or more in the same season?


I know of one example anyway.

In 1886, four hurricanes struck the Texas coast with the first and last both hitting Sabine Pass.



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Quoting zampaz:

Good questions Sar.
It's not just a matter of Sea Level rise due to melting ice, but also that water occupies a larger volume as it warms. Sea Level is not at all level, but varies greatly over the surface it covers.
It takes a long time for thermal equilibrium to be reached as well.
As the atmosphere warms it will absorb more moisture and more energy. We're just now starting to see some of the "amplification" effects.
The volume of ice loss seems to be accelerating at both poles.
It's all very interesting to witness.



And sea level rise will not be distributed equally around the world. If Greenland catastrophically melts - all that water is headed into the Atlantic.
The amount of rise is also dependent on local geography - think of the Bay of Fundy (50 ft difference between high and low tide) as as extreme example.
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Idk if u guys are looking closely but there seems to be a train of Storms coming from South America into the pacific on satellite.

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1839. zampaz
Quoting FOREX:


Can someone recommend a good starting website to learn meteorology?

I lurk and learn from the wunderground blogs, google and wikipedia are your friend too.
There is a lot on NOAA and educational material on Nasa too.
-z
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Quoting daddyjames:


in fact, I don't recall the town's name - but a small town inland Central Florida had all four hurricanes that hit Florida that year - Charley, Jeanne, Francis, and Ivan pass directly over it.
Man! I was wondering if they had a city that got hit more than once. Unbelievable! hopefully we dont see that again but the way how this setup is getting very scary! i very prepared this time around!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
okay so basically thats about the only closest city that got struck twice. Thanks it just popped in my head for some reason


That is all that I can think of at the moment, there could be more.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
question everyone? and good morning i finally just got off. Has there ever been a hurricane hit the same city twice or more in the same season?


in fact, I don't recall the town's name - but a small town inland Central Florida had all four hurricanes that hit Florida that year - Charley, Jeanne, Francis, and Ivan pass directly over it.
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1835. zampaz
Quoting sar2401:

I'm a bit confused by this whole rising sea level thing. We've now had over 150 years of the industrial revolution. From growing up in the 50's, even though the population was less, I know for sure we were emitting a lot more greenhouse gases in the 50's than now. As far as I know, rising sea levels can only come from one thing - turning ice that's currently on land back into water. What's happening in the Arctic is disturbing, and may affect our weather in other ways, but having all the ice at the North Pole melt won't raise our sea level by one millimeter. It has to come from Antarctica and places with lots of glaciers on land, like Greenland. Why, after a century and a half of heedless pollution, are we just now starting see these big ice melts? Something seems out of sync to me.

Good questions Sar.
It's not just a matter of Sea Level rise due to melting ice, but also that water occupies a larger volume as it warms. Sea Level is not at all level, but varies greatly over the surface it covers.
It takes a long time for thermal equilibrium to be reached as well.
As the atmosphere warms it will absorb more moisture and more energy. We're just now starting to see some of the "amplification" effects.
The volume of ice loss seems to be accelerating at both poles.
It's all very interesting to witness.

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Quoting daddyjames:


2004 Florida. Jeane struck Stuart, Florida just 2 miles (3 kilometers) from where Frances had struck 3 weeks earlier.
okay so basically thats about the only closest city that got struck twice. Thanks it just popped in my head for some reason
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


GFS IS closer to you.

thats more of a weak TS athome?
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Quoting bigwes6844:
question everyone? and good morning i finally just got off. Has there ever been a hurricane hit the same city twice or more in the same season?


2004 Florida. Jeane struck Stuart, Florida just 2 miles (3 kilometers) from where Frances had struck 3 weeks earlier.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
aww man thats next monday. are any other models showing dat too? Sorry I just got off


GFS IS closer to you.

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Quoting sar2401:

I'm a bit confused by this whole rising sea level thing. We've now had over 150 years of the industrial revolution. From growing up in the 50's, even though the population was less, I know for sure we were emitting a lot more greenhouse gases in the 50's than now.

As far as I know, rising sea levels can only come from one thing - turning ice that's currently on land back into water.

What's happening in the Arctic is disturbing, and may affect our weather in other ways, but having all the ice at the North Pole melt won't raise our sea level by one millimeter. It has to come from Antarctica and places with lots of glaciers on land, like Greenland. Why, after a century and a half of heedless pollution, are we just now starting see these big ice melts? Something seems out of sync to me.

GHG emissions are much higher now than in the 1950s. World population has nearly tripled since 1950 and more than doubled since 1960. That's a lot of people.

Concerning sea level rise, you are not taking thermal expansion into. As water temperature rises, its volume increases. It is a major reason for the current rise in SLR. The other major reason is the reason you outline.

While a complete melt-out of Arctic Sea Ice won't raise sea-levels, it will have an effect on Northern Hemisphere weather. It already is having effects.
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Quoting sar2401:

I'm a bit confused by this whole rising sea level thing. We've now had over 150 years of the industrial revolution. From growing up in the 50's, even though the population was less, I know for sure we were emitting a lot more greenhouse gases in the 50's than now. As far as I know, rising sea levels can only come from one thing - turning ice that's currently on land back into water. What's happening in the Arctic is disturbing, and may affect our weather in other ways, but having all the ice at the North Pole melt won't raise our sea level by one millimeter. It has to come from Antarctica and places with lots of glaciers on land, like Greenland. Why, after a century and a half of heedless pollution, are we just now starting see these big ice melts? Something seems out of sync to me.


Ah, but there is a lot more to add to the equation - the jump in population size is one (and the continued rise, we'll see if it levels off) combined with the "developing nations" - China, India, and less so Brazil - that are striving, and exceeding, to reach the same standard of living as the US. Much more consumption of coal, oil/gasoline, and production of concrete - which also contributes to production of excess CO2.

Estimations of ice melt has been marred by not understanding the underlying dynamics or including additional factors (storms in the Arctic). i personally believe - no evidence - that the rate of ice melt has not been accurately estimated. But the more pressing problem will be drinking water - especially in regions of the world dependent upon glacial meltwater. Essentially, all of Western South America, a good portion of SouthEast Asia, and even the Western US (which is snowmelt predominantly).

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

CMC says you've got a hurricane knocking on your door in 10 days.



aww man thats next monday. are any other models showing dat too? Sorry I just got off
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question everyone? and good morning i finally just got off. Has there ever been a hurricane hit the same city twice or more in the same season?
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1826. FOREX
Quoting sar2401:

I'm assuming you're asking about the "Miami is doomed video". It was done by this group. Take some to read the comments. There seem to be wishcasters on the pro-AGW side too.


Can someone recommend a good starting website to learn meteorology?
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Quoting zampaz:

I believe we're going to see changes in Sea Level sooner than anticipated due to amplification effects not initially anticipated in prediction models given the current rate of ice volume loss. But like tropical weather this season, time will tell.

Sorry for breaking the tropics topic a bit...but it's late...

Greenland is the biggest worry. If the Greenland Ice Sheet melts faster than anticipated, then rapid sea level rise will occur. Though at this time there isn't any particular reason to believe that such a rapid melt will occur, it's tough to rule entirely given the poor job that the models have done with Arctic Sea Ice.

(FYI: If the GIS melts out completely it will cause 7.2m rise in sea level.)
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1824. sar2401
Quoting nigel20:
Have a good night all...I'm off to bed!

GN Nigel
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1823. sar2401
Quoting zampaz:

I believe we're going to see changes in Sea Level sooner than anticipated due to amplification effects not initially anticipated in prediction models given the current rate of ice volume loss. But like tropical weather this season, time will tell.

Sorry for breaking the tropics topic a bit...but it's late...

I'm a bit confused by this whole rising sea level thing. We've now had over 150 years of the industrial revolution. From growing up in the 50's, even though the population was less, I know for sure we were emitting a lot more greenhouse gases in the 50's than now. As far as I know, rising sea levels can only come from one thing - turning ice that's currently on land back into water. What's happening in the Arctic is disturbing, and may affect our weather in other ways, but having all the ice at the North Pole melt won't raise our sea level by one millimeter. It has to come from Antarctica and places with lots of glaciers on land, like Greenland. Why, after a century and a half of heedless pollution, are we just now starting see these big ice melts? Something seems out of sync to me.
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1822. nigel20
Have a good night all...I'm off to bed!
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1821. 19N81W
If the gom Caribbean or Atlantic produce anything it will have to be under much different conditions than I am seeing.....the entire region is void of convection
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Quoting sar2401:

I'm assuming you're asking about the "Miami is doomed video". It was done by this group. Take some to read the comments. There seem to be wishcasters on the pro-AGW side too.


Thaks sar - reading it now. LOL, like I said everything in the RS article - although embellished a little - is a n accurate depiction of Florida and Miami.
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Quoting zampaz:


From "about" of charlie youtube video.
(hth)
-z


LOL - thanks zampaz, but wrong video. There is a video linked to the Rolling Stone article that sar mentioned.

That's the one I was referring to.

But thanks, I appreciate the effort. :D
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1818. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:


I was looking for it but cannot find it. Remember where it is?

I'm assuming you're asking about the "Miami is doomed video". It was done by this group. Take some to read the comments. There seem to be wishcasters on the pro-AGW side too.
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03E becomes Tropical Storm Cosme on the 06z ATCF update. Expect to see Cosme in the next NHC advisory.

EP, 03, 2013062406, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1048W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, COSME, D,
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1816. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is what happens when u spend too much time on the blog... Taz has been around so long he's seen everything... and then forgets everybody else hasn't been here as long.

Some of the stuff Pat posts is just mindboggling... have u seen the Vaccarella family video from Katrina?

Yes, I did. Every single TV station on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts should be required to show that video once a day during hurricane season. I've never seen another video which showed the utter devastation that comes with a big storm, or did such a good job conveying the hopelessness of a family who made the choice to stay, and finally realize that the calvary is not coming. There was a documentary made about Rocky Vaccarella and his family. Some more information about him and the film is here.
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1815. zampaz
Quoting daddyjames:


I was looking for it but cannot find it. Remember where it is?


From "about" of charlie youtube video.
(hth)
-z
Uploaded on Sep 10, 2010

http://www.UltimateChase.com
EXCLUSIVE and RARE VIDEO: Strongest Wind Gust Recorded on Video inside a Hurricane. At 03:08 in this video you will witness a Category 5 wind gust estimated well over 155mph !!!! This video has become famous and known worldwide as the "Hurricane Charley Gas Station" video.

Mike Theiss of Ultimate Chase captures some of the strongest winds ever caught on video inside a Hurricane with an estimate wind gust well over 155mph during Hurricane Charley on August 13th, 2004 in Charlotte Harbor, Florida. This rare Category 5 wind gust is embedded with in Charley's eyewall with sustained winds of 125mph. Mike believes a "mini-swirl" or "sub-vortices" was embedded in the eyewall and went right over his location during this sudden wind gusts.

Scientist believe Hurricane Andrew had numerous "mini-swirls" that devastated South Florida back in 1992.

While in Charley's eye Mike recorded a low barometric pressure of 942mb which was used in The National Hurricane Centers final report of Hurricane Charley.

If you would like to see the entire Hurricane Charley chase (Part 1) please click on this link: http://youtu.be/xPaIXQslKkg

To read the chase account and see a map of Mike's location and to learn more about this insane documentation, please go to this link: http://mthurricane.com/Hurricane_Char...
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1814. nigel20
Quoting sar2401:

I've seen this one before, but I always have the same thoughts. First, I don't see any gust at 3:08 I can clearly identify as being stronger than others before it. Second, I'm amazed the gas station canopy survived as long as it did. Third, the big sign with prices survived apparently unscathed...and the price of premium was only $1.89! I hope we won't see another Charley, and I really doubt we'll ever see premium at $1.89 again. :-)

It's amazing how two locations in similar vicinity can have different levels of damage...though it's possible that it could have been an eyewall mesovortices where the winds can be 10% higher than the rest of the eyewall.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

CMC says you've got a hurricane knocking on your door in 10 days.





Oh ok. Pretty close to the GFS. Wonder what the ECMWF will show.
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Quoting zampaz:

I believe we're going to see changes in Sea Level sooner than anticipated due to amplification effects not initially anticipated in prediction models given the current rate of ice volume loss. But like tropical weather this season, time will tell.

Sorry for breaking the tropics topic a bit...but it's late...


Yes, i was seriously considering moving back there to be closer to family, but three things changed my mind:

(1) as much as I loved growing up there, the people, the food, and the weather - it is way too crowded now - and only going to get worse.
(2) simple economics - housing is expensive, salaries don't cut it.
(3) the fact that, even with uncertainty factored - as one of the people quoted said - we're screwed. I grew up in a house 9 miles from the beach. Two feet of water sea level rise, and that neighborhood is under water.
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Quoting sar2401:

Check out the website of the guy who posted that video too. There are some really strange people on both fringes of the AGW debate.


I was looking for it but cannot find it. Remember where it is?
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1810. zampaz
Quoting daddyjames:
Hey,

Just read the Rolling Stone article. What a trip. Miami has not changed one bit.

I actually know a couple of the people quoted in that story. it is so true, all of it. A bit embellished maybe, but definitely true.

I believe we're going to see changes in Sea Level sooner than anticipated due to amplification effects not initially anticipated in prediction models given the current rate of ice volume loss. But like tropical weather this season, time will tell.

Sorry for breaking the tropics topic a bit...but it's late...
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1809. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:
Hey,

Just read the Rolling Stone article. What a trip. Miami has not changed one bit.

I actually know a couple of the people quoted in that story. it is so true, all of it. A bit embellished maybe, but definitely true.

Check out the website of the guy who posted that video too. There are some really strange people on both fringes of the AGW debate.
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1808. sar2401
Quoting nigel20:
This is probably some of the strongest winds ever recorded on video during an hurricane.

Hurricane Charley (Part 2) Extreme Eyewall Category 5 Wind Gust !

I've seen this one before, but I always have the same thoughts. First, I don't see any gust at 3:08 I can clearly identify as being stronger than others before it. Second, I'm amazed the gas station canopy survived as long as it did. Third, the big sign with prices survived apparently unscathed...and the price of premium was only $1.89! I hope we won't see another Charley, and I really doubt we'll ever see premium at $1.89 again. :-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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