Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hurricanes2018:
DO YOU SEE A SPIN OFF THE EAST COAST HERE.



you dont need too yell
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Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53039
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53039
DO YOU SEE A SPIN OFF THE EAST COAST HERE.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53039
104. VR46L
Euro nothing much in the GOM

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Quoting hurricanes2018:
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. jump up to 50%



Where did you read this
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Wow. If the GFS is right, then we will have Andrea, which matched arlene, Barry, which matched bret, and this 3rd storm, which will match cindy.............
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1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. jump up to 50%
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53039
Quoting Bluestorm5:
SRV is kind of messy in the eastern Tornado warning so can't tell for sure (it got green TVS, though). Western Tornado warning got nothing on SRV, however. Also GR2Analyst is measuring the hail at 5 inches (I doubt it, but still very large hail is falling in SD up to softball size).

Messy will probably be the word today, not a favorable setup for many tornadoes, though one or two can't be ruled out. Large hail will be the main threat, along with damaging winds. A tornado watch was just issued a couple minutes ago.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Still anything important on the ECMWF.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14326
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Things are going downhill in eastern South Dakota, there has been a confirmed tornado (possibly still on the ground) within this cluster, along with very large hail up to baseball size and 70mph winds:

SRV is kind of messy in the eastern Tornado warning so can't tell for sure (it got green TVS, though). Western Tornado warning got nothing on SRV, however. Also GR2Analyst is measuring the hail at 5 inches (I doubt it, but still very large hail is falling in SD up to softball size).
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Florida's Indian River Lagoon Is A "Killing Zone" Of Mass Animal Deaths:

Report (VIDEO)
Posted: 06/20/2013


Day after day, dolphins floated up dead, emaciated down to their skeletons. Florida's Indian River Lagoon, considered one of the most diverse ecosystems in North America, was in dire crisis.

And it wasn't just the 46 dead bottlenose dolphins. The casualty list is long and depressing: gone are 47,000 acres of sea grass beds, 111 manatees, and 300 pelicans, reports Fox News.

It's been described as a "killing zone" and a "mass murder mystery" that is perplexing biologists.

The Tampa Bay Times reports that scientists believe it may be due to one or several causes: fertilizer-laced stormwater runoff, polluted water dumped from Lake Okeechobee by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, climate change and effects on acidity, changes in water temperature and salt levels, and overflow from contaminated mosquito-control ditches.

The Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute at Florida Atlantic University was counting on $2 million in state funds to study the dead bodies piling up at Indian River Lagoon.

Except Gov. Rick Scott vetoed the research project in May, writing in his veto letter “While some water projects may also contribute to a statewide objective, not all projects demonstrate an ability to contribute to a statewide investment.”

Since Scott took office in 2009, his smaller government approach has slashed regulation and conservation programs, reports the Broward New Times.


He even reportedly replaced experienced Department of Environmental Protection employees with people from polluting industries.

Scott also recently put the state's water quality under the DEP as opposed to the federal Environmental Protection Agency.

"The new changes would be significant because many are less-stringent than the bare minimum recommended by the Environmental Protection Agency and existing standards in Alabama," a former member of Florida's Environmental Regulation Commission told the Orlando Sentinel.

Meanwhile Marty Baum of the Indian Riverkeeper told Fox News, “The lagoon is in a full collapse, it is ongoing.”

How you can help: Adopt a manatee through the Save The Manatee Club, which rehabilitates sea cows and works to protect their habitats.
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Things are going downhill in eastern South Dakota, there has been a confirmed tornado (possibly still on the ground) within this cluster, along with very large hail up to baseball size and 70mph winds:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Quoting nigel20:

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or am I seeing two different circulations?


You could be , I am not that great at picking circulations .. with 2 invests so close and a Fuiji dance predicted you could be right !
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Thanks, Dr. Master. What's happening in India is very bad... there's also major flooding in Calgary as well and an NHL arena is heavily damaged.
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Not often you see a Tropical Wave forecast for Florida's Panhandle.



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I saw it 1st
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Just Chillin and checking out the new Twins....

A tropical wave is currently over eastern Jamaica, but it's devoid of most of its convection. It is pretty gusty, so it's a good time to surf or go to the beach.
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National Study on Carless and Special Needs
Evacuation Planning: A Literature Review



John L. Renne, Ph.D., AICP, University of New Orleans
Thomas W. Sanchez, Ph.D., University of Utah
Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute
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Quoting nigel20:

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or am I seeing two different circulations?


Does look like that doesn't it?
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Afternoon all.

Since flooding is on the topic list today I wanted to let y'all know what's going on up in Southern Alberta, Canada right now. Calgary (pop~ 1.09 million) and surrounding areas are underwater and the rains are still not letting up. This is a historic flood due to the nature of the heavy rains and already swollen rivers. According to the Mayor on CNN approx. 100,000 people have been displaced or are evacuated.

Compilation of pictures and users posted content.

Calgary Herald Article

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Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters

94E RGB Image

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Quoting VR46L:
95E RGB




95E Funktop


Are my eyes playing tricks on me or am I seeing two different circulations?
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Quoting HurricaneAndre:
we have 95 E


Have you seen the last few GFS runs with a possible storm in the panhandle in early July? Not sure what Euro is showing.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Pedley!
What's up?



Just Chillin and checking out the new Twins....
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Quoting HurricaneAndre:
we have 95 E


And 94E too. This one for sure will be the strongest of the two systems.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14326
we have 95 E
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Goodday Sensei, How are you feeling?

77.6F in the Inland Empire


In the 90's here, but the humidity isn't bad. I'm feeling quite good, Grasshopper.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Goodday Sensei, How are you feeling?

77.6F in the Inland Empire

Hey Pedley!
What's up?

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Quoting FtMyersgal:


That's right over my MIL house in Milwaukee County!


Oh My Goodness !

Gal I hope it won't be bad there
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Goodday Sensei, How are you feeling?

77.6F in the Inland Empire
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Quoting FOREX:


I live in PCB, where are you located?
Milton
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95E RGB




95E Funktop

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94E RGB




94E Funktop

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Quoting Tazmanian:



It would be the 2nd hurricane. Of the season they all ready had the 1st


Yes,I forgot Barbara.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14326
Terrible situation in India. I have always been quite fond of the people there. Thanks for the coverage, Doc.


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Thanks for this entry, folks pointing out the 10 day gulf forecast, amazing storm imagery and flooding issues in India and Nepal.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1579
Quoting VR46L:
Oh My !!!



That's right over my MIL house in Milwaukee County!
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
94E is poised to become the first hurricane at EPAC if SHIP is right.


817
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1817 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942013) 20130621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130621 1800 130622 0600 130622 1800 130623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 100.3W 11.9N 101.4W 11.6N 102.5W 11.4N 103.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130623 1800 130624 1800 130625 1800 130626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 104.4W 12.4N 106.5W 14.6N 108.4W 17.3N 110.7W
SHIP 53KTS 70KTS 74KTS 67KTS
DSHP 53KTS 70KTS 74KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 100.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 98.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 96.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



It would be the 2nd hurricane. Of the season they all ready had the 1st
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Quoting barbamz:
Wow! Selection of the best user photos from the storms in Germany yesterday.


That first photo is a classic US Midwest supercell. I didn't think we got them in Europe. We certainly don't get them in the UK. Anyone know how rare these systems are in Europe?
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 21 Jun 2013

Average for last30 days: 9.4
Average for last 90 days: 6.5
Daily contribution to SOI calculation: 9.4
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94E is poised to become the first hurricane at EPAC if SHIP is right.


CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942013) 20130621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130621 1800 130622 0600 130622 1800 130623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 100.3W 12.2N 101.5W 12.1N 102.6W 12.0N 103.6W
BAMD 12.0N 100.3W 11.9N 101.4W 11.6N 102.5W 11.4N 103.4W
BAMM 12.0N 100.3W 11.8N 101.5W 11.4N 102.7W 11.0N 103.6W
LBAR 12.0N 100.3W 12.1N 101.8W 11.9N 103.5W 11.5N 105.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 36KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130623 1800 130624 1800 130625 1800 130626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 104.6W 15.0N 106.9W 18.1N 111.0W 18.2N 116.0W
BAMD 11.3N 104.4W 12.4N 106.5W 14.6N 108.4W 17.3N 110.7W
BAMM 10.9N 104.5W 12.4N 105.5W 16.0N 106.7W 19.8N 109.8W
LBAR 11.3N 107.3W 12.2N 111.0W 15.2N 116.0W 16.1N 121.3W
SHIP 53KTS 69KTS 74KTS 69KTS
DSHP 53KTS 69KTS 74KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 100.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 98.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 96.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14326
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
EPAC turning active.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Good afternoon all!

Yes indeed!
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

There was a 1020 mb low marked there
1020mb is a low?
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Regarding the word heating. I see this in a thermodynamics text book online. (See page 61. )

"Another common problem is failure to distinguish between thermodynamic 'heat' and the process of 'heating.' To heat a system is to cause its temperature to increase."

The text book also says:

"In thermodynamics, the technical meaning of the word %u201Cheat%u201D when used as a noun is energy transferred across the [system] boundary because of a temperature gradient at the boundary. In everyday speech the noun heat is often used somewhat differently. Here are three statements with similar meanings that could be misleading:

'Heat is transferred from a laboratory hot plate to a beaker of water.'

'Heat flows from a warmer body to a cooler body.'

'To remove heat from a hot body, place it in cold water.'

Statements such as these may give the false impression that heat is like a substance that retains its identity as it moves from one body to another. Actually heat, like work, does not exist as an entity once a process is completed. Nevertheless, the wording of statements such as these is embedded in our everyday language, and no harm is done if we interpret them correctly. This book, for conciseness, often refers to 'heat transfer' and 'heat flow,' instead of using the technically more correct phrase 'energy transfer by means of heat.'"

Edit: I posted a longer commentary on this on my blog.
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Wow! Selection of the best user photos from the storms in Germany yesterday.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6027
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep952013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306211743
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
EPAC turning active.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14326
Strong tropical storm that originates from the Caribbean.

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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I know the GFS forecast is a way out but Chantal looks ominous!


I live in PCB, where are you located?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.