Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting VR46L:


LOL!!!

Good luck with contacting her....


We will see if it works next wednesday :) 18z has the bulk of moisture skirting me, but the GFS is changing mind on each new run...
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This is the 12z GFS ensemble mean at 258 hours, about the time landfall was occurring on the Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure is centered in the GOH/BOC, which gives credibility to the 18z operational solution. Not great agreement overall on the ensembles though so obviously lots of room for change.

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256. VR46L
Quoting CaribBoy:
I've just sent an email to the T-Wave at 30W to let her know that I need 4 inches of rain! Lol


LOL!!!

Good luck with contacting her....
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Quoting stoormfury:
the GFS is showing a area of disturbed weather over the central windward islands on Tuesday 25th june


I told her to move more north btw!
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Parts of South Dakota ended up with a pretty big severe weather day today:



The storms that produced most of those reports have merged into a solid line and are moving through MN. The environment isn't quite as good that way so they'll probably slowly wind down.
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I've just sent an email to the T-Wave at 30W to let her know that I need 4 inches of rain! Lol
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128228
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Strange how the 18z GFS keeps showing a west solution when all other runs take it north. Did the same yesterday.


Is less reliable of all runs. 00z will have it back for sure.
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the GFS is showing a area of disturbed weather over the central windward islands on Tuesday 25th june
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It's strange how the 18z GFS keeps showing a west solution when all other runs take it north. The model did the same thing in yesterday's 18z run. The upper-level pattern at the time certainly favors the earlier solutions taking a storm north to the Gulf Coast, much like Cindy '05 due to troughing above.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31991
The path on the 18z GFS seemed to agree better with its ensemble members than the Gulf Coast tracks the past three runs had shown, so I suspect it will likely trend towards some consistency in that more south/west track. Perhaps we could end up getting a storm very similar to Barry.
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247. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
SLU I was just looking at that wave at 45W. There is some voticity with that wave. you are so correct it definitely needs watching the next few days.


The wave at 43w is the one the GFS develops in the WCAR. The one at 30w is the one the GFS strengthens as it nears the islands on Tuesday.
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Figured it was unusual for the GFS to be that consistent for a future storm, took it on a Barry-type path this run. It'll probably flip back before too long.
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Old ASCAT from this morning, still was very frontal then.
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Quoting VR46L:
The 18z Just has a TD meandering for over 100 hrs around the Yucatan and BOC .. but it is the 18Z which is as far as I am aware the least realable of the 4 runs...


That is correct.
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1134 AM EDT FRI JUN 21 2013

DISCUSSION FROM JUNE 21/00UTC: MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN SONORA IN MEXICO THROUGH THE CYCLE. THIS WILL VENT
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF SOUTHERN
SONORA AND SINALOA WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM. AMOUNTS ARE TO INCREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM
AFTER 36 HRS. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO/SOUTHERN GULF COAST ON DAY 02-03 AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BARRY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THROUGH 36 HRS...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
STILL ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL-NORTHERN VERACRUZ/SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE TO DECREASE AFTERWARDS. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
INITIALLY...INCREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

TO THE EAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN...TUTT EXTENDS OVER
HISPANIOLA/TURKS AND CAICOS WITH BASE SOUTH INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA.
TO THE EAST...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS BUILDING. AS RIDGE
BUILDS...THE TUTT WILL RETROGRESS INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TO CENTER
OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 48 HRS...AND OVER COSTA
RICA-NICARAGUA-CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 72 HRS. THE TUTT WILL FIRST VENT
A FEW DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/TURKS AND
CAICOS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...AS UPPER CONVERGENCE
CONTINUES ESTABLISHING. OVER JAMAICA/CAYMAN ISLANDS...EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM...WITH
DRYING TREND ESTABLISHING AFTER DAY 01.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ WILL REMAIN ACROSS COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
INTO PANAMA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...SEASONAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST CENTERING ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST FROM GUATEMALA TO NICARAGUA. THROUGH 36
HRS...HEAVIEST WILL CONCENTRATE OVER WESTERN GUATEMALA AND EASTERN
NICARAGUA WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE TO DECREASE AFTERWARDS PRODUCING 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM OVER GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR...AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THE UPPER DIVERGENT PHASE
OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION WILL ENTER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION MAINLY OFFSHORE DURING THE
FORECAST CYCLE...TO START INCREASING IN THE CONTINENT DURING NEXT
WEEK.

OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE
ALONG THE NET ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA/VENEZUELAN LLANOS. STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WILL LIMIT STRONGEST CONVECTION TO CONTINENTAL AREAS
LEADING TO MAINLY SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
OVER COLOMBIA EXPECTING SEASONALLY QUIET PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION CONCENTRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THROUGH 36 HRS...STRONGEST WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. FURTHER WEST...EXPECTING AN
INCREASE BY 60-84 HRS AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO PANAMA
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ACROSS VENEZUELA...EXPECTING
ALSO SEASONALLY QUIET PATTERN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...EXPECTING
QUIET PATTERN EARLY IN THE CYCLE UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRONG
MID/UPPER RIDGE. STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER ALONG NORTHERN
GUYANA/NORTHERN SURINAME WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON DAY 02...AS TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES. ACROSS
TRINIDAD/SOUTHERN WINDWARDS/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...EXPECTING AN
INCREASE INTO DAY 03 WITH AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
40W 44W 48W 52W 55W 59W 63W TW
56W 59W 63W 65W 68W 70W 72 TUTT INDCD.
79W 81W 84W 87W 91W 94W 98W TW

A TROPICAL WAVE AT 40W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N IS AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GUIANAS. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE NORTHERN GUIANAS EARLY ON SATURDAY PRODUCING AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE
ACCUMULATIONS OVER TRINIDAD/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA ON SUNDAY
PRODUCING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

A TUTT INDUCED WAVE AT 56W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 24W IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WAVE HAS LIMITED EFFECTS IN CONVECTION...AS
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER
PUERTO RICO/USVI ON DAY 02 LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO INCREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM.

A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 79W WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS IN
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA THROUGH DAY 02. IT WILL LEAD TO AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

MCKENZIE...BDM (BAHAMAS)
ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
SLU I was just looking at that wave at 45W. There is some voticity with that wave. you are so correct it definitely needs watching the next few days.
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240. VR46L
The 18z Just has a TD meandering for over 100 hrs around the Yucatan and BOC .. but it is the 18Z which is as far as I am aware the least realable of the 4 runs...
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The 18z GFS run has low moving overland in Yucatan and that is why it not develops.
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236. SLU
Almost no shear here. This wave needs to be watched.

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Calgary floods: What you need to know now
Major road closures, schools closed, but emergency rooms open in Calgary
CBC News Posted: Jun 21, 2013 1:54 AM MT


Just before noon on Friday the decision was made to evacuate many buildings downtown because of power outages. Compromised buildings — those without their own power source — are being cleared. That includes many offices towers, hotels and condominiums.

"If you are in a non-evacuation zone, (e.g. at home) prepare for potential power outages. Charge your devices, save your work," tweeted Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi.

"If you are in an identified area, please self-evacuate immediately," the city's blog says. Parts of the following neighbourhoods were under evacuation orders:

Beltline.
Bonnybrook.
Bowness.
Bridgeland Industrial Area.
Chinatown/Eau Claire.
Cliff Bungalow.
Deer Run.
Discovery Ridge.
Douglasdale
Downtown/East Village.
Elbow Park.
Erlton.
Inglewood.
Hillhurst.
Mission.
Montgomery.
Quarry Park.
Rideau.
Riverbend.
Riverdale.
Roxboro.
Stanley Park/Elboya.
Sunnyside.
Victoria Park.
Westmount.
West Hillhurst.
Windsor Park.
Shelters
The city says evacuees who have no place to go will be provided with food, shelter, bedding and other essential services at one of these reception centres:

Village Square Leisure Centre, 2623 56th St. N.E.
South Fish Creek Recreation Centre, 333 Shawville Blvd. S.E. (access through west doors).
The Southland Leisure Centre, 2000 Southland Dr. S.W. and Acadia Recreation Complex A, 240 90th Ave. S.E. are at capacity.

Centre Street Church, 3900 - 2nd St. N.E. is open as a day resource.

As of about 9:30 a.m. MT city officials said 1,500 people were being sheltered. There is capacity for 2,500 evacuees.

SAIT Polytechnic's residence buildings have also been opened to flooding evacuees. About 200 people have been taken in.

People can take pets to the Animal Service Centre, at 2201 Portland St. S.E., or the Calgary Humane Society, at 4455 110th Ave S.E., if they can't find an alternative place for them.

All city recreation centres are closed Friday except those being used as shelters.

Schools
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233. VR46L
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS doesn't look too promising through 171 hours...


At 180 different story

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18z GFS doesn't look too promising through 171 hours...
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Maybe is this one that may trigger development in Western Caribbean.


It isn't. The Western Caribbean storm comes out of the monsoon trough.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128228
North American Surface Analysis

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128228
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
What am I looking at.


OSCAT.....was looking for any spin on the end of that front in NE Gulf
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Published on Jun 20, 2013

Major Alberta Flood 20/06/2013 - Calgary and 20 Major surrounding areas are being evacuated this evening as the rain persists and flooding continues to rise.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128228
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Maybe is this one that may trigger development in Western Caribbean.
I agree.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2889
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
What am I looking at.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2889
Quoting MississippiWx:
GFS is showing a nice wave out in the Central MDR in about 48 hours with a healthy 850mb vort sig. Shear will probably keep it from developing along with dry (sinking) air. However, it just appears to be another healthy wave.



84 hours:



Maybe is this one that may trigger development in Western Caribbean.
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221. mati
Entire downtown of Calgary Alberta Canada is flooded out, all people to leave. Hockey arena under meters of water...

Houses being swept away, town of Canmore isolated by landslides and briges swept away...

Link
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GFS is showing a nice wave out in the Central MDR in about 48 hours with a healthy 850mb vort sig. Shear will probably keep it from developing along with dry (sinking) air. However, it just appears to be another healthy wave.



84 hours:

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Things are heating up for the eastern Pacific; there are two tropical disturbances (Invests 94E and 95E) posing to become tropical cyclones in the coming days. 94E located south of the Mexican coast appears to have a good chance of becoming the second eastern Pacific hurricane of the season given its ample time in favorable conditions. The close proximity between both systems will affect each others' track by rotating each other in a Fujiwhara effect. Thus, high uncertainty remains for both of their forecast track.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Invest 95E has a decent environment to slowly intensify within before wind shear increases to very unfavorable levels in roughly 72 hours.

SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 7 4 8 8 16 24 30 50 35 25
SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.5
700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 65 64 62 66 70 70 79 84 85 88
HEAT CONTENT 27 31 28 22 14 12 20 30 29 25 23 24 18



Invest 94E is in a favorable environment through much of the period. Sea surface temperatures begin to drop off significantly after 96 hours, but that's more than enough time for substantial development.

SHEAR (KT) 13 14 9 10 9 10 14 18 20 21 15 12 8
SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.8 27.3 24.6
700-500 MB RH 83 83 84 83 83 81 82 85 86 86 88 82 79
HEAT CONTENT 43 46 47 44 39 32 31 34 50 63 26 11 0

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31991
95E is looking a lot better



94E is all so looking better




i can see 95E geting bump up too %50 and 94E geting bump too %70
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115072
Quoting Tazmanian:




why do you keep saying 1st hurricane when they all ready had there 1st hurricane it will be there 2nd hurricane got it? 2nd not 1st


I fixed it.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
94E looks like a good candidate to turn into the first Hurricane of the 2013 EPAC season.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. THERE ARE TWO LOW PRES ANALYZED CURRENTLY
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE AT 11N100W AND ANOTHER AT
12N117W. BOTH OF THESE LOW PRES AREAS PRESENTED WELL ON ASCAT
DATA FROM 1646 UTC. THE WESTERNMOST LOW PRES DEVELOPED IN PART
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS SINCE BECOME A SHARPLY
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 19N BETWEEN 105W AND
120W. THE EASTERNMOST LOW PRES IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE INTERACTION
OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH...AS WELL AS RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION ARE PULSING AROUND EACH LOW PRES AREA...BUT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE EASTERNMOST
LOW.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERNMOST LOW PRES AREA. THE GFS REMAINS THE
OUTLIER INDICATING THAT BOTH LOW PRES AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...WHEREAS ALL OTHER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE THE EASTERMOST DEVELOPING AT THE EXPENSE OF THE WESTERN
LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE BALANCED CONSENSUS
APPROACH AND GRADUALLY MERGES THE WESTERNMOST LOW INTO THE
EASTERN LOW THROUGH MON. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS.




why do you keep saying 1st hurricane when they all ready had there 1st hurricane it will be there 2nd hurricane got it? 2nd not 1st
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115072
Fellow blobcasters... What are your thoughts on the blob off the southeast coast? It seems to have some spin.
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94E looks like a good candidate to turn into the second Hurricane of the 2013 EPAC season.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. THERE ARE TWO LOW PRES ANALYZED CURRENTLY
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE AT 11N100W AND ANOTHER AT
12N117W. BOTH OF THESE LOW PRES AREAS PRESENTED WELL ON ASCAT
DATA FROM 1646 UTC. THE WESTERNMOST LOW PRES DEVELOPED IN PART
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS SINCE BECOME A SHARPLY
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 19N BETWEEN 105W AND
120W. THE EASTERNMOST LOW PRES IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE INTERACTION
OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH...AS WELL AS RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION ARE PULSING AROUND EACH LOW PRES AREA...BUT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE EASTERNMOST
LOW.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERNMOST LOW PRES AREA. THE GFS REMAINS THE
OUTLIER INDICATING THAT BOTH LOW PRES AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...WHEREAS ALL OTHER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE THE EASTERMOST DEVELOPING AT THE EXPENSE OF THE WESTERN
LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE BALANCED CONSENSUS
APPROACH AND GRADUALLY MERGES THE WESTERNMOST LOW INTO THE
EASTERN LOW THROUGH MON. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS.
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Everyone have a great weekend; I am going to do some fishing this weekend with no disturbances in the Gulf and nothing spinning up on the models on the Atlantic end. Speaking of the models, and I missed this from May15th, big improvements coming to the GFS model from supplemental funding to NOAA from the TS Sandy relief package improve forecasting.

Here is an excerpt from the article and the full link is below.

The $23.7 million in improvements to NWS’s forecasting systems from the Sandy supplemental will facilitate a more than ten-fold increase in the capacity of the supercomputer running the GFS model.

“This is an extraordinarily positive development and will give the National Weather Service the potential to lead the world in numerical weather prediction,” Mass said in an email Tuesday.

In technical terms, the computing capacity will ramp up from 213 teraflops to 2,600 teraflops by the 2015 fiscal year according to the NWS. (Teraflops are simply a measure of the number of trillion calculations the computer can perform per second.) The NWS expects ECWMF’s supercomputer to have a capacity of 2,217 teraflops at that same time.


Link

See Yall on Monday...................WW
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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