Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

Share this Blog
63
+

Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 308 - 258

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41Blog Index

Quoting zoomiami:


Hey! I know you....

No, you really don't!
He's traded ribeye steaks for carrot sticks!

Totally different person!

LOL

Hey Zoo!

-Nite folks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:


Hey! I know you....


Hi Zoo! Good to hear from you again, you have really
had your share of rain this year, eh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Scientists: Arctic sea ice to shrink to record low this summer

In a sign of continued global warming, the Arctic sea ice this summer will shrink to a new low, 5 percent smaller than the previous minimum of last summer, scientists in Japan said.

A group of researchers led by Hajime Yamaguchi, a professor of ocean information systems with the University of Tokyo, said their predictions are based on satellite data on movements of ice from winter through spring.

The U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center has said the Arctic sea ice shrank to 3.41 million square kilometers on Sept. 16, 2012, the smallest since satellite monitoring began in 1979. Yamaguchi and colleagues predict the area will be 160,000 square km smaller than that in early September 2013.

Research associate Noriaki Kimura said the thaw started from the Russian coasts this year. He added that ice north of Russia will be completely melted around July 21 and north of Canada around Aug. 6, opening sea routes in the respective areas.
The Arctic sea ice averaged 6.71 million square km between 1979 and 2000. This summer's minimum prediction is less than half that figure.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
dear mr storm: be nice to poor St. Peter...
March 29 1998 St Peter Tornado
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTLSNK:
There is no Dr. Bongevine's McTavish Numbers, and
there is no Planfalf Model. That was fake information
that was downloaded here years ago by some trolls that
were perma-banned from this website.

Downloading fake information during hurricane season
like that will result in the same result for anyone
that tries it again.


Hey! I know you....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
cell near mankato had the look to it for a minute there...



Member Since: Posts: Comments:

662
WUUS53 KMPX 220138
SVRMPX
MNC079-103-220230-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0092.130622T0138Z-130622T0230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
838 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LE SUEUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EASTERN NICOLLET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 835 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
ST PETER...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST PETER...LE CENTER...NORSELAND...KASOTA...OTTAWA...LE SUEUR...
CLEVELAND...ST THOMAS...ST HENRY...KILKENNY...HEIDELBERG AND
MONTGOMERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 4445 9423 4446 9416 4446 9393 4450 9389
4454 9354 4426 9354 4426 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 255DEG 31KT 4437 9407

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
301. txjac
Quoting whitewabit:


We are watching ..


Amen to that ...novice like me even knows that those "forecasts" were out to lunch ...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
300. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting RTLSNK:
There is no Dr. Bongevine's McTavish Numbers, and
there is no Planfalf Model. That was fake information
that was downloaded here years ago by some trolls that
were perma-banned from this website.

Downloading fake information during hurricane season
like that will result in the same result for anyone
that tries it again.


We are watching ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty good consensus with 94E:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
298. DDR
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
14.31" of rain so far for June in Wekiva Springs just NW of Orlando. Amazing!!


Very impressive,thats a lot of rain i might reach that amount by months end here in Trinidad,just over 10 inches here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is no Dr. Bongevine's McTavish Numbers, and
there is no Planfalf Model. That was fake information
that was downloaded here years ago by some trolls that
were perma-banned from this website.

Downloading fake information during hurricane season
like that will result in the same result for anyone
that tries it again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just blew through here, torrential rain for about 15 minutes, a few big gusts, but thankfully no downed trees on my block! lots of my friends towards the NW suburbs are complaining about power outages and posting pics of big trees down tho!
not surprised to see the flash flood warning though. I live very near the highest point of Minneapolis, so my street drains nicely ;)

Quoting Patrap:

728
WUUS53 KMPX 220111
SVRMPX
WIC093-109-220215-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0090.130622T0111Z-130622T0215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
811 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
295. whitewabit (Mod)
Updated: 26 min 8 sec ago


Clear
77 °F

Clear


Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 68 °F
Wind: 14 mph from the South


Pressure: 29.95 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 5.30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -

(Above Ground Level)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Minneapolis
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902

728
WUUS53 KMPX 220111
SVRMPX
WIC093-109-220215-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0090.130622T0111Z-130622T0215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
811 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN PIERCE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
ST. CROIX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 807 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF FOREST LAKE TO MAPLEWOOD TO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF EAGAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RIVER FALLS...NEW RICHMOND...ELLSWORTH...HUDSON...NORTH HUDSON...
PRESCOTT...BURKHARDT...SOMERSET...BOARDMAN...ROBER TS...HOULTON...
HAMMOND...BELDENVILLE...BALDWIN...MARTEL...CYLON.. .WOODVILLE...
EMERALD...FOREST AND HERSEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.



LAT...LON 4469 9271 4475 9280 4484 9276 4490 9277
4492 9275 4509 9278 4511 9274 4520 9277
4516 9215 4512 9215 4512 9213 4467 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 271DEG 39KT 4517 9298 4495 9292
4477 9301

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
1007 mb is pretty deep for an invest, isn't it tropicalanalyst?

I wouldn't say so, no.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
My Local PWS is down...

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 5:53 PM PDT on June 21, 2013
Clear
81 °F
Clear
Humidity: 28%

Dew Point: 45 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 21 mph
Pressure: 29.78 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Pollen: 4.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

It was 86.8 here again today (2nd day). 80's all month except two days over 90.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1007 mb is pretty deep for an invest, isn't it tropicalanalyst?
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8918
SHIP up to peak intensity of 81kts for 94E.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC SAT JUN 22 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942013) 20130622 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130622 0000 130622 1200 130623 0000 130623 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 101.2W 12.3N 102.3W 12.4N 103.3W 12.6N 104.5W
BAMD 12.1N 101.2W 11.9N 102.3W 11.7N 103.3W 11.5N 104.3W
BAMM 12.1N 101.2W 12.2N 102.4W 12.2N 103.4W 12.3N 104.4W
LBAR 12.1N 101.2W 12.0N 102.8W 11.7N 104.5W 11.3N 106.4W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130624 0000 130625 0000 130626 0000 130627 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 105.8W 16.5N 109.8W 17.1N 114.3W 17.6N 114.7W
BAMD 11.7N 105.3W 13.3N 107.9W 15.9N 111.0W 18.5N 114.7W
BAMM 12.9N 105.6W 15.3N 108.8W 17.3N 112.3W 19.0N 115.7W
LBAR 11.1N 108.3W 12.3N 112.3W 14.4N 117.7W 16.3N 122.4W
SHIP 67KTS 80KTS 81KTS 71KTS
DSHP 67KTS 80KTS 81KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 101.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 99.4W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 97.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No change to either invest...30 mph/1007 millibars for 94E and 20 mph/1009 millibars for 95E.

EP, 94, 2013062200, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1012W, 25, 1007, LO,

EP, 95, 2013062200, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1145W, 20, 1009, DB,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Quoting SLU:


Weather456?


Yeah, we miss his expertise about Tropical Waves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383

Animation by the Austrian weather service.

With the globe at your side (US) good night from Germany!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:
I could use a bit of rain here ...kind of depressing to me without some rain!

AtHome, are you getting rain your way?


Yes. Up until today we were getting pretty good showers come through all week. We skirted the edge of that ridging. It's here now though so our chances are minimal. We got a pretty good total for June. Hope you get some rain soon txjac.

87.7°F
Switch to Celsius
2mph
Hi: 93°F
Lo: 71°F
Rain: 0.00"
Gust: SE 14
Heat Index: 93°F
Humidity: 56%
Dew Point: 70°F
Avg Wind: 3 S
Pressure: 29.99"
Rain/Month: 4.06"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
277. txjac
I could use a bit of rain here ...kind of depressing to me without some rain!

AtHome, are you getting rain your way?

Edit ...I meant lately ...seems like the rain has been east of me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wahoo, I may actually get some interesting weather for once!
at the very least, it'll bring down the humidity...feeling steamy in MPLS today.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MN...WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338...

VALID 212350Z - 220115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF A BOW ECHO WILL
MOVE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MSP AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ACTIVITY HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING BUT FORWARD SPEED STILL INDICATES GUSTS TO
50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WI AFTER 8PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO HAS RACED ENEWD INTO CNTRL MN OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE APEX OF THE BOWING LINE MOVING AT
CLOSE TO 50KT. ENTIRE COMPLEX HAS SHOWN SOME DOWNWARD TREND IN
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH A DECREASE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY
AND LIGHTNING FLASH DENSITY. HOWEVER...FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT CHANGED MARKEDLY AND IR CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING
STEADY. EXPECT THAT WINDS OF 45-50KT WILL REMAIN LIKELY AS THE
CONVECTION TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TWIN CITIES REGION IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. GIVEN OBSERVED DECLINE IN SYSTEM INTENSITY...AND DECREASE
IN SBCAPE AND FORECAST MASS INFLOW WITH ERN EXTENT ACROSS
WW338...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY DECREASE INTO
WRN WI AFTER ABOUT 8-9PM CDT.

..CARBIN.. 06/21/2013

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94E up to 60% and 95E up to 30%.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
94E up to 60% and 95E up to 30%.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 113 Comments: 106180
Quoting PedleyCA:


Well, Oops. Duh, guess I should have looked for a date. Did I mention, DUH...


No biggy. Was news to me. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Forsaken:
That's from 3 years ago, it's probably been posted at some point. =p


Well, Oops. Duh, guess I should have looked for a date. Did I mention, DUH...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is getting really very ugly, sigh.
At least 150 die of hunger, exposure in Kedarnath valley
Deeptiman Tiwary, TNN | Jun 22, 2013, 04.28 AM IST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:


Why does that radar seem so strange to me? What's with the "waves" that its making?
Outflow boundaries. You're seeing the burst of cool air that rushes outward from thunderstorm cells when their precipitation overcomes their updraft, causing them to "cave in" on themselves.

Might add that those "waves" can actually spark new, very strong thunderstorm cells if they collide with another wave head on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PedleyCA:
Giant South Dakota hailstone breaks US record (BBC)
don't know if any posted this yet...

US record Hailstone
That's from 3 years ago, it's probably been posted at some point. =p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Yeah. ..like if that is going to work.

Letting the storm know your needs in advance. ..I might also try that. ..lol.


Lol. Got some friends in other parts of Texas who have been trying to do that for years. But we've never tried email. Good idea CaribBoy! Hope it works! :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
I've just sent an email to the T-Wave at 30W to let her know that I need 4 inches of rain! Lol


Yeah. ..like if that is going to work.

Letting the storm know your needs in advance. ..I might also try that. ..lol.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Thunderstorms knock out power to thousands in upper Midwest
MINNEAPOLIS | Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:59pm BST

(Reuters) - Severe storms producing wind gusts up to 85 mph, heavy rain and lightning strikes in Minnesota and Wisconsin early on Friday, knocked down trees and power lines and at one point left more than 176,000 customers without power.

An area stretching from the Dakotas through Wisconsin was bracing for more storms, some severe, later on Friday and possible flooding after reports of three to four inches of rain fell in some communities already, the National Weather Service said.

"The weather pattern is pretty much going to be stationary tonight and through the weekend so we are concerned about the severe weather and also the potential for flooding," said Jacob Beitlich, a weather service meteorologist in the Twin Cities.


Umm, I've got a friend in St. Paul. I hope it won't get as bad over there as in Alberta/Canada.

And moreover, yes, it's only me. I was tired of my old german mail box avatar and chose a new one, more weather related :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
262. VR46L
Quoting CaribBoy:


We will see if it works next wednesday :) 18z has the bulk of moisture skirting me, but the GFS is changing mind on each new run...


Yeah it takes time for them to settle on a track ,and of course like I said its the 18Z . When the 00z and 12z is similar there is a bit of confidence but the 18z tends to be out more often . But sure the Euro is showing nothing which lessens the confidence of anything happening
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SLU thanks again was an error on part.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
260. txjac
Quoting Patrap:


Why does that radar seem so strange to me? What's with the "waves" that its making?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Giant South Dakota hailstone breaks US record (BBC)
don't know if any posted this yet...

US record Hailstone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:


LOL!!!

Good luck with contacting her....


We will see if it works next wednesday :) 18z has the bulk of moisture skirting me, but the GFS is changing mind on each new run...
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455

Viewing: 308 - 258

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
37 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron