Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Ok. I killed the blog. Sorry about that.

I have the same effect at parties.

I gotta go to bed anyway. I'll leave you with a song...

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Or, as Mark Twain put it,

"It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so!"
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Quoting sar2401:



You've got a good argument and I have to say I now have doubts of my own. Of course, now I kinda feel the same way as when I found out there wasn't a Santa Claus...oh well! Keep up the good work!
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Quoting Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT
60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA SHOWS SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT PRESSURE ARE HIGH AND WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THIS AREA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH AND
NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Figured they'd mention it. I didn't see any strong evidence of a healthy surface circulation though, looking at available surface observations.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT
60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA SHOWS SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT PRESSURE ARE HIGH AND WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THIS AREA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH AND
NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yep that is why I said earlier give it about 2-3 days to see if the system is still showing up and has moved up in timeframe, if it pushes it back then likely it's not getting a good grasp on the timing of the next MJO or the atmospheric conditions won't allow for development, so it may just show a different storm altogether.

Here is the last frame before it loses the resolution:



I don't expect literally every run to show something. That far out, I don't think every single run has to show a storm, but I would agree that the vast majority of them do. Even with Andrea, sometimes the GFS failed to predict anything this far in advance.

Two weeks is a lot different than one week. There are going to be inconsistencies within the pattern at those long ranges. It's normal.

What's important is that the model forecasts lower pressure; it, along with its respective ensemble members, have been highly consistent with at least that much, even if they haven't fully locked onto the exact strength and timing of the MJO.
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Get informed. Be prepared. Stay alive.






Hurricane Protocol 2013




While you're at it, read up on the other hurricane produced surge...Power Surges.

And stop torturing your electronics in the meantime.
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


54F and you need a ski jacket? Sounds like most Floridians. Also, if I lived in Australia, I would be very grateful for any rain that fell (not including that which caused severe flooding).

the places that need the rain aren't getting the rain. Parts of NSW and Queensland are in drought


Oh and I do go for holidays in the Philippines. might move there one day.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yep that is why I said earlier give it about 2-3 days to see if the system is still showing up and has moved up in timeframe, if it pushes it back then likely it's not getting a good grasp on the timing of the next MJO or the atmospheric conditions won't allow for development, so it may just show a different storm altogether.

Here is the last frame before it loses the resolution:


It seems as if the GFS has a bias this year to develop waves from the Caribbean and have them make landfall on the Panhandle. It hasn't happened yet, and Andrea, the one storm that did make it to (sort of) the Panhandle, came out of the Western Gulf. Maybe by August we'll see a TW from the Caribben get into the Gulf, but, even then, I think Louisiana/Texas is much more likely than the Panhandle. So far, at least, I'm a lot more concerned with things coming off the Yucatan than the Caribbean.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting AussieStorm:


54F here right now

Sydney 64km Radar loop


54F and you need a ski jacket? Sounds like most Floridians. Also, if I lived in Australia, I would be very grateful for any rain that fell (not including that which caused severe flooding).
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If time permits I'd appreciate if the late night crowd could comment on my blog about your personal local weather and climates.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/zampaz/comment.h tml?entrynum=0
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Quoting mikatnight:
#354 -

Hmmm...then I suppose logically, you would have to have an explanation as to why you distrust the numbers. None of the doubts you cast appeared particularly compelling to me, that is, I could come up with many variables to offset your own. It boils down to, why would the numbers be wrong? Human error? Thats a lot of errors. Conspiracy? For what purpose? Human beings like to record things. And they like to do it as accurately as possible. Especially science-types. There would have to be a logical reason why one of the most trusted agencies in our government would put out misleading or false information.

Now, having said that, I will now contradict myself by admitting that the 1928 hurricane track was only corrected in 2010 by HURDAT to match up with numerous eye-witness and NWS reports. Literally, the NWS webpage and the NHC webpage on the storm said two completely different things. I wouldn't doubt it if it was still that way. Even when they corrected the track, they claimed it was only a modest change and not all that relevant. I totally disagreed with them on that.

The problem is those numbers are not generated by our science type agencies. They are generated from cities, counties, and states who are trying to maximize revenue from disasters. They are generated from some of the individuals I described, who were obviously committing insurance and government aid fraud, but were hard to catch. Outfits like NOAA just compile these disparate figures from multiple sources, as the disclaimer in their PDF stated, and then they add that strange bit about estimating the costs of what wouldn't have been incurred if the disaster wouldn't have happened.

Having been a guy who dealt with these numbers on a local basis, it was always amazing to see the estimates that came from agencies such as FEMA. We had one flood that destroyed about 25% of the housing stock of a town of about 4,000 people. By the time FEMA produced their estimates, the total cost was more than the valuation of all the structures in that town. When we questioned them about they arrived at those estimates, they said they included things like lost work time and increased commuting costs to get around flooded areas. That would have probably made sense except 35% of the town's population was on welfare and 35% of the town's population was retired. They simply applied some formulas they use all across the country when a certain amount of structures and infrastructure had been damaged with no regard to the actual situation on the ground.

So, whadaya think, enough reason to doubt some of the figures I see? :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting mikatnight:


Evening Dak, Aussie (thxs for the reply) -
Hope the night/day finds you well.
I'm running a bit behind, as usual.

Evening
Just had quiet a heavy shower pass though. I feel there is much more to come.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting Dakster:
How is everyone doing tonight on the blog?


Evening Dak, Aussie (thxs for the reply) -
Hope the night/day finds you well.
I'm running a bit behind, as usual.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I don't have a fire. I just have a little fan heater

That's too bad. Once of the things I liked about my house in California was it had a real fireplace that burned real wood. I just have a little electrical contraption that pretends to be a fireplace here, and we get those same kind of high 40's-low 50's rainy days and nights here.
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Quoting FOREX:


Two GFS runs in a row have dropped the panhandle storm in early July.
Yep that is why I said earlier give it about 2-3 days to see if the system is still showing up and has moved up in timeframe, if it pushes it back then likely it's not getting a good grasp on the timing of the next MJO or the atmospheric conditions won't allow for development, so it may just show a different storm altogether.

Here is the last frame before it loses the resolution:

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Quoting allancalderini:
Most people in Honduras would probably die from hypothernia with that temperature.


Thank goodness the wind is very light or it would be much more colder with wind-chill
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
#354 -

Hmmm...then I suppose logically, you would have to have an explanation as to why you distrust the numbers. None of the doubts you cast appeared particularly compelling to me, that is, I could come up with many variables to offset your own. It boils down to, why would the numbers be wrong? Human error? Thats a lot of errors. Conspiracy? For what purpose? Human beings like to record things. And they like to do it as accurately as possible. Especially science-types. There would have to be a logical reason why one of the most trusted agencies in our government would put out misleading or false information.

Now, having said that, I will now contradict myself by admitting that the 1928 hurricane track was only corrected in 2010 by HURDAT to match up with numerous eye-witness and NWS reports. Literally, the NWS webpage and the NHC webpage on the storm said two completely different things. I wouldn't doubt it if it was still that way. Even when they corrected the track, they claimed it was only a modest change and not all that relevant. I totally disagreed with them on that.
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Quoting Dakster:


Hot and Humid here, the grass grows inches each week so I have to cut it each week. But I don't have to shovel sunshine off the front porch.

Indeed. After growing up in Cleveland, I'll never live in a place that has snowplows again. Just got back from a few days vacation in Panama City, and I'm always surprised at how much more tropical those few degrees in latitude make it than here. South Florida always seems to me to be the beginning of the "real" tropics. It never seemed to get any hotter or more humid in the eastern Caribbean than it was in Miami.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting FOREX:


Two GFS runs in a row have dropped the panhandle storm in early July.


Sounds good for the panhandle...
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Quoting sar2401:

I know that doesn't sound cold to most folks but, from living in northern California, rain and temperatures in the low 50's is about as cold as I've ever been. It's also one of the most dangerous times to be out in the weather without your skins. We lost way more people to hypothermia in the condition you have now than we ever did when we had clear skies and temperatures at or near freezing. I hope you have a nice fire to sit in front of.

I don't have a fire. I just have a little fan heater
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
386. FOREX
Quoting Dakster:


Then the blog will go nuts.


Two GFS runs in a row have dropped the panhandle storm in early July.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


54F here right now

Sydney 64km Radar loop
Most people in Honduras would probably die from hypothernia with that temperature.
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Quoting allancalderini:
I remember that day I came running of school to see if Josephine have develop from that tw.


You must be a youngen


NWS Sioux Falls ‏@NWSSiouxFalls 3s
Quarter size hail reported just east of Ravinia, SD in Charles Mix County at 1142 pm. #sdwx
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting AussieStorm:

They keep me warm cause they keep my muscles tight.


;)

And once you said 54F and you were cold I understand completely.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


54F here right now

Sydney 64km Radar loop

I know that doesn't sound cold to most folks but, from living in northern California, rain and temperatures in the low 50's is about as cold as I've ever been. It's also one of the most dangerous times to be out in the weather without your skins. We lost way more people to hypothermia in the condition you have now than we ever did when we had clear skies and temperatures at or near freezing. I hope you have a nice fire to sit in front of.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting AussieStorm:


Or this???

I remember that day I came running of school to see if Josephine have develop from that tw.
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Quoting sar2401:

Good evening, Dak. Clear and warm here in SE Alabama. We could use some rain, and it looks like the PW creeps up to two inches by Sunday so, with some luck, we may get some. It was a very pleasant and wet spring, and I'm hoping we can keep that going through the summer. If we can get some rain through next week, it will be the first time in living memory my lawn was green on July 1. :-)


Hot and Humid here, the grass grows inches each week so I have to cut it each week. But I don't have to shovel sunshine off the front porch.
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Quoting Dakster:


Phew... Do they keep you warm?

That looks like something to go into the water with.

They keep me warm cause they keep my muscles tight.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting Dakster:
How is everyone doing tonight on the blog?

Good evening, Dak. Clear and warm here in SE Alabama. We could use some rain, and it looks like the PW creeps up to two inches by Sunday so, with some luck, we may get some. It was a very pleasant and wet spring, and I'm hoping we can keep that going through the summer. If we can get some rain through next week, it will be the first time in living memory my lawn was green on July 1. :-)
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Quoting AussieStorm:





Phew... Do they keep you warm?

That looks like something to go into the water with.
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Quoting sar2401:

You're cold? But, it's the height of summer, with a temperature of 77 here at 2330...oh, never mind, I forgot about that whole upside down thing. :-) How cold are you?


54F here right now

Sydney 64km Radar loop
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Suppose we get something like this?


Thankfully, those were the days before the blog. I suppose we will eventually get something like this again, except this time we'll crash all the Weather Channel servers too. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting Dakster:


I didn't know Australians could take their skin off?



Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Suppose we get something like this?



Or this???

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm about to put my skins on followed by my ski jacket. It's really cold. My fingers are sore from the cold.


I didn't know Australians could take their skin off?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm cold and I am watching the radar cause there is huge black clouds to my east and they are currently dumping massive amounts of rain over the Sydney CBD south to Sydney Airport.


You're cold? But, it's the height of summer, with a temperature of 77 here at 2330...oh, never mind, I forgot about that whole upside down thing. :-) How cold are you?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Suppose we get something like this?

Yes and I see pre-Karen and pre Luis.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Suppose we get something like this?



Then the blog will go nuts.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm cold and I am watching the radar cause there is huge black clouds to my east and they are currently dumping massive amounts of rain over the Sydney CBD south to Sydney Airport.


Hope you stay warm, dry and safe.
Re: your post #356, are those kind of cloud formations common over Australia?
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Quoting Dakster:


I hope you are able to get warm and stay dry my friend.

I'm about to put my skins on followed by my ski jacket. It's really cold. My fingers are sore from the cold.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting allancalderini:
So far the Indian Ocean and Eastern pacific supposedly are going to have twin cyclones maybe the Atlantic may get a pair this year :p
Suppose we get something like this?

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Quoting zampaz:

Llama?

Hi Dakster;
same ole, lurking and learning :)
-z


LOL...

And awesome keep it up - you will be able to teach me things soon enough.
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Quoting mikatnight:
#344 - Are you saying the government is bad with money?

Oh, that's right, this is the same organization that sent a billion dollars in cash on a pallet to Iraq.

LOL. Maybe that extra $1 billion in damage for the Oakland Hills fire was shipped to Iraq. :-) It seems pretty clear that damage estimates are subject to a pretty wide range, depending on economic advantage. In cases where the cost will be covered by insurance or government aid, there's a compelling economic benefit in overestimating damage costs. The area of northern California I lived in had floods on a regular basis. Since I was an emergency manager for the county, I knew the housing stock and population in the frequently flooded areas pretty well. When the insurance adjusters or FEMA showed up, it's amazing how many homes had brand new landscaping, a new carport, or the owners had recently acquired all new and very expensive furniture. Sadly, it had all been washed away, out to the Pacific Ocean. They even had receipts from some local businesses who, strangely, had also suffered grievous losses. We were able to put together a few fraud cases, but most walked with a nice pocket full of change, and thus we see some of these clearly out of proportion damage estimates/costs.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm cold and I am watching the radar cause there is huge black clouds to my east and they are currently dumping massive amounts of rain over the Sydney CBD south to Sydney Airport.



I hope you are able to get warm and stay dry my friend.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I spy with my little eye something beginning with L.


Llama?

Hi Dakster;
same ole, lurking and learning :)
-z
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Vigorous Wave approaching the Leeward/Windward Islands in 90 hrs. could be the catalyst for development later on in the Western Caribbean.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
00z GFS 81 hrs. Twin Tropical Storms in the EPAC 995 mb. and 1000 mb. respectively.



Absorbed at 120 hrs. into one system.

So far the Indian Ocean and Eastern pacific supposedly are going to have twin cyclones maybe the Atlantic may get a pair this year :p
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Quoting Dakster:
How is everyone doing tonight on the blog?

I'm cold and I am watching the radar cause there is huge black clouds to my east and they are currently dumping massive amounts of rain over the Sydney CBD south to Sydney Airport.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting mikatnight:


34 kilometers...is that considered deep?

Relatively deep. 10km ^ is considered shallow.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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