Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JeffMasters:
Wow, check out the pictures of the West Fork, CO fire posted at:

https://twitter.com/pikehotshots



Jeff Masters
My goodness that is scary looking.Praying for everyone there and the firefighters who are risking their lives.
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Quoting scott39:
Do you see a pattern in this seasons storm tracks, that would compare to another season in the past 18 years? Or is it too soon to tell?


Way too soon. Every early-season storm forms in basically the same climatological area: Caribbean, GOM, or SE coast.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
Quoting Levi32:


It did pick out Andrea and Barry, and the GFS has always been great at sniffing out storms well in advance. The problem is that it also sniffs out a lot of storms that never form. I see what you mean, though.
Do you see a pattern in this seasons storm tracks, that would compare to another season in the past 18 years? Or is it too soon to tell?
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Quoting Grothar:


Ah, Barb. Memories.


Gro, did you miss my breakfast recipe (#500)? Quite delicious actually, though I generally drink it down in one gulp (unless it's too cold, in which case a risk of severe brain-freeze). Forgot to mention, if no coconut water available, add juice of choice.
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Hello Grothar, Good to see you posting.
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Quoting scott39:
@ Levi, Did you see what I was getting at in my post? I know that 10 to 14 days are not reliable with model forecasting, but the GFS has not been bad this year being 2 weeks out.


It did pick out Andrea and Barry, and the GFS has always been great at sniffing out storms well in advance. The problem is that it also sniffs out a lot of storms that never form. I see what you mean, though.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
Quoting JeffMasters:


Thanks. This quote was particularly telling: "The fire behavior we saw yesterday was so extreme, it was ... unprecedented," said Eric Norton, a fire behavior analyst with the National Incident Management Organization.

Jeff Masters

Hi Dr. Masters! I'm a new user.
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Quoting barbamz:


Have a nice evening, everbody. I'm out in town because of our traditional "Nights of John", named after St. John (feast June 24th) and as well Johannes Gutenberg, who once invented printing in Mainz. Great festival for four nights everywhere in the streets and at Rhine River, with book markets to boot. You see wheather is fine now at my place. They were lucky that all those severe thunderstorms took place the day before the festival started.

Fireworks always at Monday night traditionally close the "Nights of John" (youtube).

And don't miss the supermoon tonight, if skies are not too bright. Infos f.e. on spaceweather.com


Ah, Barb. Memories.
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Have a nice evening, everbody. I'm out in town because of our traditional "Nights of John", named after St. John (feast June 24th) and as well Johannes Gutenberg, who once invented printing in Mainz. Great festival for four nights everywhere in the streets and at Rhine River, with book markets to boot. You see wheather is fine now at my place. They were lucky that all those severe thunderstorms took place the day before the festival started.

Fireworks always at Monday night traditionally close the "Nights of John" (youtube).

And don't miss the supermoon tonight, if skies are not too bright. Infos f.e. on spaceweather.com
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Quoting sar2401:

How close do you live to Boulder? Of any city in the US, Boulder stands more chance of a repeat of the Oakland Hills firestorm than any other. The building out into the canyons, combined with tens of thousands of dead and dying pine trees, is a disaster waiting to happen. Combine that with Boulder's well known hurricane force winds that occur regularly and it's only a matter of when, not if.


Hi Sar!

I tried 3 different stints at living there, but the cold, DRY air, and the no ocean thing - most I could handle was 2 years. To your point, I remember hearing that lightning was frequent in the mountains of Boulder. That could (if true) exacerbate the potential?
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@ Levi, Did you see what I was getting at in my post? I know that 10 to 14 days are not reliable with model forecasting, but the GFS has not been bad this year being 2 weeks out.
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Quoting Patrap:
...Holiday Inn Express


...revelation.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
...Holiday Inn Express
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
ESL by LSU Image of the Week, TD 2

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Quoting mikatnight:


I'm hooked on your videos. I watch one of 'em, and I feel like I stayed at a HIE.


I don't know what a HIE is, but thank you lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
Quoting AussieStorm:

Texas, Gulf of Mexico coast
@AstroKarenN
Karen L. Nyberg
Very cool Pic!
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I'm not downplaying the fire dangers here in Colorado. Our family suffered some big losses in Katrina and we found the quality of life "for us" to be better in Colorado vs Louisiana. We still go back to LA and love NOLA. Unfortunately, natural disasters can occur pretty much anywhere and all of us chose to live where we do knowing this fact.
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Alot of moisture in the Gulf next week.............
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Quoting scott39:
Yes, I was correct in my post. Read the first sentence closer this time.
I could have added the word 2 for 2 DEVELOPED TCs and that probably would have helped more. I dont know how I posted your comment that many times. I apologize for that. Lol

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Quoting Levi32:


No, the GFS is more like 2 for 6. There have been several bogus storms in the western Caribbean / GOM that never materialized.


I'm hooked on your videos. I watch one of 'em, and I feel like I stayed at a HIE.
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Quoting Micktooth:


We also moved to Denver/Boulder from NOLA after Katrina. We stayed... Although these fires are terrible, they are not in the Denver area. We are not subjected to "firestorms" and 1 Hurricane is one too many for me.


As free Americans we are still able to choose where we live. May your choice be wise for you and yours. I wish you all the best. Not knocking Denver; it just wasn't right for me and mine.

(How are you liking the food there...? J/K )
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Quoting Micktooth:


We also moved to Denver/Boulder from NOLA after Katrina. We stayed... Although these fires are terrible, they are not in the Denver area. We are not subjected to "firestorms" and 1 Hurricane is one too many for me.

How close do you live to Boulder? Of any city in the US, Boulder stands more chance of a repeat of the Oakland Hills firestorm than any other. The building out into the canyons, combined with tens of thousands of dead and dying pine trees, is a disaster waiting to happen. Combine that with Boulder's well known hurricane force winds that occur regularly and it's only a matter of when, not if.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17049
Quoting MechEngMet:



NO! That's just what they'll be expecting you to do. (LOL, Thanks for that!)

I asked Johnny to take a look at the models and see what he could make out of them. He said he could make a hat, or a brooch, a pterodactyl. . .or a tropical depression. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17049

Texas, Gulf of Mexico coast
@AstroKarenN
Karen L. Nyberg
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Quoting Levi32:


No, the GFS is more like 2 for 6. There have been several bogus storms in the western Caribbean / GOM that never materialized.
Quoting Levi32:


No, the GFS is more like 2 for 6. There have been several bogus storms in the western Caribbean / GOM that never materialized.
Quoting Levi32:


No, the GFS is more like 2 for 6. There have been several bogus storms in the western Caribbean / GOM that never materialized.
Quoting Levi32:


No, the GFS is more like 2 for 6. There have been several bogus storms in the western Caribbean / GOM that never materialized.
Quoting Levi32:


No, the GFS is more like 2 for 6. There have been several bogus storms in the western Caribbean / GOM that never materialized.
Yes, I was correct in my post. Read the first sentence closer this time.
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Moonrise over New Brunswick




Fires in Colorado.

Karen L. Nyberg
@AstroKarenN
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Quoting MechEngMet:


Wake up some morning and face the gates of hell coming over the mountain towards your home... the horror.

I evacuated the family to Denver for 9 months post Katrina. Everyone there asked us to stay declaring that "they don't have natural disasters in Denver". We moved back to NOLA area the following June. We decided we'd prefer the occasional H-cane & flooding to annual firestorms. That's just terrifying.


We also moved to Denver/Boulder from NOLA after Katrina. We stayed... Although these fires are terrible, they are not in the Denver area. We are not subjected to "firestorms" and 1 Hurricane is one too many for me.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Hollandaise? Sausage? Pork? Cheese? 20 oz steak? Fried eggs? Fries? Seriously? Sounds tasty, but it also sounds like a coronary in the making. I mean, I enjoy a hearty breakfast as much as the next guy, and I've certainly had my fill of unhealthy ones in my life.


That's actually a healthy, hearty meal, IF it comes from healthy (pastured) animals. Fat and cholesterol are not the nutritional enemies you have been led to believe.
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Quoting Levi32:


No, the GFS is more like 2 for 6. There have been several bogus storms in the western Caribbean / GOM that never materialized.

That's what I remembered also. For all this talk about how accurate the GFS has been, it seems like these "ghost" storms are forgotten while we focus on the ones the model got right. If any model continues to show storm formation somewhere in the Gulf/Caribbean during June and July, it's likely to be right a few times.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17049
Quoting JeffMasters:


Thanks. This quote was particularly telling: "The fire behavior we saw yesterday was so extreme, it was ... unprecedented," said Eric Norton, a fire behavior analyst with the National Incident Management Organization.

Jeff Masters


That sounds strangely and chillingly familiar.
Canberra 2003 Bushfires









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Quoting sar2401:

Good morning, Gro, pcola, mik, birthmark, Aussie, and all the other folks I'm forgetting to mention.

I had a heapin' bowl o' raisin bran this morning. Not as healthy as sautéed dalbat but us old guys need fiber, ya know. I left the toast for Gro.

pcola, looks nice on the beach again this morning after what appeared to be a rainy afternoon yesterday.

Birthmark, just a heart breaking shot of the damage from the low-end semi-tropical sort of depression that just came ashore in the Carolinas today.

84 degrees with a dewpoint of 72 already here in the SE Heart of Dixie. Looks like the upper Midwest is going to be the focus of most US severe weather for the next 3 days or so. It's very tranquil here by comparison as we scan the Gulf, looking for the next "Big Storm". It's quiet...too quiet...time to check the Radar Range. :-)



NO! That's just what they'll be expecting you to do. (LOL, Thanks for that!)
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Quoting pcola57:


Mornin' Gro..
Having a bowl of Fruit Loops here..
I know..
Makes sense.. :)

Good morning, Gro, pcola, mik, birthmark, Aussie, and all the other folks I'm forgetting to mention.

I had a heapin' bowl o' raisin bran this morning. Not as healthy as sautéed dalbat but us old guys need fiber, ya know. I left the toast for Gro.

pcola, looks nice on the beach again this morning after what appeared to be a rainy afternoon yesterday.

Birthmark, just a heart breaking shot of the damage from the low-end semi-tropical sort of depression that just came ashore in the Carolinas today.

84 degrees with a dewpoint of 72 already here in the SE Heart of Dixie. Looks like the upper Midwest is going to be the focus of most US severe weather for the next 3 days or so. It's very tranquil here by comparison as we scan the Gulf, looking for the next "Big Storm". It's quiet...too quiet...time to check the Radar Range. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17049
Quoting scott39:
The GFS has been 2 for 2 in forecasting TCs two weeks out this season. The GFS is showing a possible TC developing around July 3rd, in the same place Barry developed. The track is more NW towards the Gulf Coast states. The track is too soon to tell.. MJO will be strong and a well established, while an anti-cyclone will be moving together with the possible TC in the GOM....Something to keep and eye on.


No, the GFS is more like 2 for 6. There have been several bogus storms in the western Caribbean / GOM that never materialized.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
22/1145 UTC 33.8N 78.5W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
Quoting Neapolitan:
Incredible shot. At first I thought the brighter part was flames, which would have been truly frightening. But even knowing it's the sun being filtered through a break in the clouds doesn't take anything away from the picture...


Hmm, you're probably right with the sun, Nea. Sunset behind the fires can be seen in this youtube video.
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The GFS has been wild lately. With both storms it forecasted it sniffed the storm out but then would drop the storm as it came closer in the timeline, it split Andrea into multiple lows, and called Barry, but backed off and pushed it too deep into land. And now were having the same situation from what could be our next storm, but has gone from showing a storm nearing hurricane strength in the gulf, to a weak system taking a track similar to Barry. My thinkings are that the GFS is still trying to develop a storm in its runs, but it's timing is off with the system it forecasts. Timing is crucial with this storm, it could make the difference of 72 hours that could send the storm to the gulf coast instead of Central America, that's why the situation is so fragil. Will be interesting to see if the GFS flips back to the gulf resolution on a couple of runs, that would definitely show the uncertainty of how the timeline pans out.
Were are in for some interesting and eventful weeks ahead.
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There is NO WAY to stop the exceleration of the Earths demise. Man is too greedy, and the powers that be are too late. So grab your popcorn, and wait for the birth of a new world. Its becoming more of a reality everyday, and less science fiction as time passes.
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521. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting Grothar:


I very rarely, if ever write to you, but did you see the the NBC link I posted this morning in Post 450. Smoke going up 30,000 feet and 100 foot wall of flames. I don't recall anything like that.


Thanks. This quote was particularly telling: "The fire behavior we saw yesterday was so extreme, it was ... unprecedented," said Eric Norton, a fire behavior analyst with the National Incident Management Organization.

Jeff Masters
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And I only thought that it was hot in Miami. That Colorado fire is impressive and not in a good for human's sake kind of way either.
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Quoting scott39:
The GFS has been 2 for 2 in forecasting TCs two weeks out this season. The GFS is showing a possible TC developing around July 3rd, in the same place Barry developed. The track is more NW towards the Gulf Coast states. The track is too soon to tell.. MJO will be strong and a well established, while an anti-cyclone will be moving together with the possible TC in the GOM....Something to keep and eye on.



Thanks, They have been consistent. This might be the track equivalent of the 05 Cindy that some bloggers have been using to compare this season with early 05 storms. (shudder)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Hollandaise? Sausage? Pork? Cheese? 20 oz steak? Fried eggs? Fries? Seriously? Sounds tasty, but it also sounds like a coronary in the making. I mean, I enjoy a hearty breakfast as much as the next guy, and I've certainly had my fill of unhealthy ones in my life. But I feasted this morning with one of my favorites, red lentil dal (with evoo, not ghee) over jasmine rice, after yesterday's breakfast of curried zucchini and onions. Maybe not what you'll see on the menu at Perkins or Dennys, but, well, it works...

(Now, spice up that Bloody Mary, and I'm in...)

Anyway. I see that Alaska is supposed to keep its already week-long heat wave going a while longer, while the West will continue to bake and broil. A nice pre-July 4th respite is forecast for the South, however...

cpc



We don't eat like this all the time, but occasionally we all have to live, not just survive. Everything in moderation, even health-food. Great food is part of the culture down here. It's something we do to help enjoy life, not just consume for a biological necessity, but really enjoy it.

BTW all 'Real' bloody-Marys down here contain the requisite fresh ground horseradish, Worcestershire, and Tobasco. (With plenty of lime) Enjoy...
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No storms for a couple of weeks pleaxe. I love tracking a storm as much as anyone. But my husband needs time to get his strength back before any storms. Thanks.

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The Earths "labor" pains are getting closer together every day. I would say she has "dialated" about 8 centimeters.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Wow, check out the pictures of the West Fork, CO fire posted at:

https://twitter.com/pikehotshots



Jeff Masters
Incredible shot. At first I thought the brighter part was flames, which would have been truly frightening. But even knowing it's the sun being filtered through a break in the clouds doesn't take anything away from the picture...

In this other image from the same crew, I can't help but notice how incredibly poor are the pine trees in the picture's background. Prolonged drought, warmer temperatures, a longer summer, and the mountain pine beetle have done their best to turn the forest into ready-for-ignition kindling:

fire

Original image here.
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The GFS has been 2 for 2 in forecasting TCs two weeks out this season. The GFS is showing a possible TC developing around July 3rd, in the same place Barry developed. The track is more NW towards the Gulf Coast states. The track is too soon to tell.. MJO will be strong and a well established, while an anti-cyclone will be moving together with the possible TC in the GOM....Something to keep and eye on.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Wow, check out the pictures of the West Fork, CO fire posted at:

https://twitter.com/pikehotshots



Jeff Masters


I very rarely, if ever write to you, but did you see the the NBC link I posted this morning in Post 450. Smoke going up 30,000 feet and 100 foot wall of flames. I don't recall anything like that.
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#504 - the violence of nature is often beautiful. Almost makes one feel guilty looking at it...
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Quoting MechEngMet:
Good morning all,

East coast may get some drizzle from 94L blobster, but other than that not much in the tropics. Sooooo, time for breakfast.

It's Saturday Morning in NOLA so you have multiple meal plans available.

First try the Eggs Florentine over barbant potatoes topped with a dozen fried oysters smothered in Holendais (sp?) sauce.

If that doesn't do it, try the breakfast burrito with smoked aligator sausage, pulled pork, eggs, cheese, fresh pico-d, lime, and crystal hot sauce.

Still not there? How 'bout a 20oz apple wood smoked rib-eye topped with two fried eggs and a side of steak fries.

The above served with Bellinis, mimosas, fresh squeezed screwdrivers, or bloody marrys. ...and of course rich CDM coffee in bottomless cups.

I love this town.
Hollandaise? Sausage? Pork? Cheese? 20 oz steak? Fried eggs? Fries? Seriously? Sounds tasty, but it also sounds like a coronary in the making. I mean, I enjoy a hearty breakfast as much as the next guy, and I've certainly had my fill of unhealthy ones in my life. But I feasted this morning with one of my favorites, red lentil dal (with evoo, not ghee) over jasmine rice, after yesterday's breakfast of curried zucchini and onions. Maybe not what you'll see on the menu at Perkins or Dennys, but, well, it works...

(Now, spice up that Bloody Mary, and I'm in...)

Anyway. I see that Alaska is supposed to keep its already week-long heat wave going a while longer, while the West will continue to bake and broil. A nice pre-July 4th respite is forecast for the South, however...

cpc

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Quoting MechEngMet:


Grothar I have far too much respect for you to attempt to torment. I mean no disrespect at all, I apologize for not considering or being sensitive to your current dietary situation.

Please get better ASAP so you can once again enjoy some of the finer things available to eat. Check with the Doc, I'm sure he'll grant you some sort of indulgences as you progress. Everything in moderation.

BTW; Do you foresee a possible blobster declaration for the GOM off the tail of that front? Clearly not there yet, but perhaps eventually...


LOL. Don't worry, I rarely get offended. Blob is very possible soon by the way.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Wow, check out the pictures of the West Fork, CO fire posted at:

https://twitter.com/pikehotshots



Jeff Masters


Wake up some morning and face the gates of hell coming over the mountain towards your home... the horror.

I evacuated the family to Denver for 9 months post Katrina. Everyone there asked us to stay declaring that "they don't have natural disasters in Denver". We moved back to NOLA area the following June. We decided we'd prefer the occasional H-cane & flooding to annual firestorms. That's just terrifying.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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