Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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1907. beell
A short-term assault on strong Atlantic ridging-compliments of a developing TUTT or elongated ULL over the central Atlantic. A lower tropospheric reflection of this feature may provide some enhanced cyclonic turning to any wave passing through the ITCZ next week. Maybe not.


06/24 00Z GFS 700mb-Valid Monday, July 1st (700mb ridge weakness indicated by solid black line)


06/24 00Z GFS 200mb-Valid Monday, July 1st
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Good morning. The 6z GFS was pretty similar to 0z, bringing a very weak system, probably a TD at best, to the Gulf Coast in 10 days or so.

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Quoting zampaz:

I'm sorry, I missed the plus sign and hit the minus sign by mistake AussieStorm.
I wish I could fix it.
-z

Doesn't worry me if anyone + or - my posts. I am just here to share a common interest in all things weather.
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what if a 1928 kind of system blew through miami? are you ready?
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1903. zampaz
Quoting AussieStorm:
Currently in Sydney



Also check out the size of this super anti-cyclone. Dang!!!!


I'm sorry, I missed the plus sign and hit the minus sign by mistake AussieStorm.
I wish I could fix it.
-z
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Currently in Sydney



Also check out the size of this super anti-cyclone. Dang!!!!

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1901. barbamz
Good morning! Here is the latest from India:

Uttarakhand is paying the high price of anti-environmentalism
by Lakshmi Chaudhry 45 mins ago

Latest Developments
Uttarakhand: Rain and landslides hit rescue operations, thousands still stranded
Edited by Abhinav Bhatt (With inputs from AFP) | Updated: June 24, 2013 14:41 IST

Prof. Petley has an update on his landslide blog as well.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6006
Quoting zampaz:

Still freezing down there Aussie?
Tell me a little about your local weather if you have time:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/zampaz/comment.h tml?entrynum=0


Check out my blog.
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1899. zampaz
Quoting AussieStorm:


I can beat that. TC Anthony Category 2(BOM), 30 January.

TC Yasi Category 5(BOM), 3 February


Still freezing down there Aussie?
Tell me a little about your local weather if you have time:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/zampaz/comment.h tml?entrynum=0
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Quoting daddyjames:


2004 Florida still has you beat :P


I can beat that. TC Anthony Category 2(BOM), 30 January.

TC Yasi Category 5(BOM), 3 February

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My Wind Forecast, not too far off from the NHC's but a bit more toned up:

Now: 40 MPH Winds
8 AM Today: 45 MPH
2 PM Today: 50 MPH
8 PM Today: 60 MPH
2 AM Tomorrow: 70 MPH
8 AM Tomorrow: 75 MPH
2 PM Tomorrow: 85 MPH
8 PM Tomorrow: 80 MPH
2 AM Wednesday: 75 MPH
8 AM Wednesday: 65 MPH
2 PM Wednesday: 65 MPH
8 PM Wednesday: 60 MPH
2 AM Thursday: 60 MPH
8 AM Thursday: 50 MPH
2 PM Thursday: 45 MPH
8 PM Thursday: 40 MPH
2 AM Friday: 40 MPH
8 AM Friday: 40 MPH
2 PM Friday: 35 MPH
8 PM Friday: 30 MPH
2 AM Saturday: 25 MPH... Dissipated.
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1896. zampaz
I wonder what how/if the cooling affect of Cosme on SSTs, and a resulting drop in pressure in the East will affect GOM events?
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Quoting zampaz:

and by NHC.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
1893. zampaz
As I recall the number of typical "named storms" for June is .7, is that correct?
I'm sorry, Perhaps I'm confusing EPAC storms with named NATL storms vs total storms.
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Tropical Storm Cosme
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Here u go
Tropical Storm COSME
...THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
2:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 24
Location: 12.8N 105.2W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
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1889. Dakster
Quoting bigwes6844:
exactly! stick around should be getting the name shortly.


And we have TS Cosme...
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013

...THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 105.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1887. zampaz
Quoting bigwes6844:
exactly! stick around should be getting the name shortly.

Did NRL prematurely name this?
It is up to NHC to do the naming honors isn't it?
-z
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TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SEVERAL SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL
STORM COSME. IN FACT...ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASSES AT
0404Z AND 0450Z...RESPECTIVELY...INDICATED SEVERAL 34- TO 37-KT
WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO
REVEALED THAT COSME HAD MOVED MORE WESTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THAT THE CENTER AS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SMALL CDO-LIKE CONVECTIVE FEATURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09 KT. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
MID-LEVEL SHEAR OF 10-15 KT AS INDICATED IN UW-CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSES
IS THE LIKELY REASON FOR THE RECENT WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND COSME IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF COSME
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 48
HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EXPECTED WEAKENING
AND VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. SINCE COSME IS ALREADY AT
LEAST 30 NMI TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW
ADVISORY TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...
AND BASICALLY LIES ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF TIGHTLY
PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE
OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN
HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...AS COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THE
CYCLONE WILL ENTER A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
REACHES MUCH COOLER WATERS BY 72 HOURS. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THE
LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT LEAST 90 NMI SHOULD KEEP
INTENSIFICATION SLOWER THAN THE AVERAGE RATE OF ONE T-NUMBER PER
DAY. BY 72 HOURS...COSME WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND SHIFOR INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 12.8N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 15.2N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.2N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 17.0N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 118.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 19.7N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1885. zampaz
From nrlmry.navy.mil



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Good morning or night depends everyone.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4400
Quoting Dakster:


I don't mind those. They are still fun to track and no one gets hurt or loses everything.
exactly! stick around should be getting the name shortly.
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1882. Dakster
Quoting bigwes6844:
Yes definitely! Should be a hurricane in about two or three days and then dropped backed down


I don't mind those. They are still fun to track and no one gets hurt or loses everything.
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Quoting Dakster:


Fish storm, correct?
Yes definitely! Should be a hurricane in about two or three days and then dropped backed down
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1880. ugaap
I have tried to analyze what could have happened in Kedarnath. The whole Kedarnath Temple area is covered with 9 to 10 feet of silt from the landslide flash floods. Check out my analysis about "Nature’s Fury In Uttarakhand – Devastation Beyond Comprehension"

http://www.gujaratweather.com/wordpress/?p=4240
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1879. Dakster
Quoting bigwes6844:
We should have tropical storm Cosme at 5am edt


Fish storm, correct?
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1878. Dakster
Quoting zampaz:

Hey Dak!
Things in the world are mostly average with the usual statistical outliers I would say ;)
-z
Trust me; I'm an ex-spurt.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Dak I'm still on my last night. And after reading some of my posts I think I'll stick to posting pictures from here on out. Lol.


Glad you all are doing well.

I am still on from last night too. I don't leave work till 7am...
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Quoting Dakster:
How is everything going this morning in the world?

We should have tropical storm Cosme at 5am edt
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1876. zampaz
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
In case any-one missed it or if it hasnt been posted yet, Cosme has been officially classified on ATCF:
EP, 03, 2013062406, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1048W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, COSME, D,

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1875. Dakster
Quoting sar2401:

I've seen this one before, but I always have the same thoughts. First, I don't see any gust at 3:08 I can clearly identify as being stronger than others before it. Second, I'm amazed the gas station canopy survived as long as it did. Third, the big sign with prices survived apparently unscathed...and the price of premium was only $1.89! I hope we won't see another Charley, and I really doubt we'll ever see premium at $1.89 again. :-)


We might see premium at $1.89 per liter... not per gallon.
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Quoting Dakster:
How is everything going this morning in the world?



Hi Dak I'm still on my last night. And after reading some of my posts I think I'll stick to posting pictures from here on out. Lol.
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In case any-one missed it or if it hasnt been posted yet, Cosme has been officially classified on ATCF:
EP, 03, 2013062406, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1048W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, COSME, D,
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1872. zampaz
Quoting Dakster:
How is everything going this morning in the world?


Hey Dak!
Things in the world are mostly average with the usual statistical outliers I would say ;)
-z
Trust me; I'm an ex-spurt.
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1871. Dakster
How is everything going this morning in the world?

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1870. zampaz
Quoting bigwes6844:
never be scared always ask, Thats what we are here for. No problem. Daddyjames back me up on the trough part for you

thank you :)
Asking questions is a lot faster than wikipedia...as soon as I hop on there to look up something tropics related I start following links and before I know it the evening is gone ;)
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Quoting zampaz:

Thank you very much. The more I lurk, the more I learn.
I try to stay out of the way though.
-z
never be scared always ask, Thats what we are here for. No problem. Daddyjames back me up on the trough part for you
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1868. zampaz
Good Night daddyjames :)
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I did a blog on TD-3E and invest 95E is anyone is interested. Have a great night/morning everyone.
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1866. zampaz
Quoting bigwes6844:
okay if you pay real close attention to the number that is out in the atlantic where the High is sitting. It is at i believe thats 1032. The higher the number the stronger the High gets. The Isobars that surrounds it shows u the color patterns towards it. The last Isobar is normally the steering of the storms that may come from Africa or the Caribbean or the atlantic. So the higher the number of the High the stronger it is and blocks any storm coming that way

Thank you very much. The more I lurk, the more I learn.
I try to stay out of the way though.
-z
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Quoting daddyjames:
zampaz, AtHome, bigwes, sar, and Aussie (if your lurking in the cold). have a good one. My eyelids are telling me it is time to close down for the night.

G'night - catch you all later.


Night DJ. :)
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Quoting daddyjames:
zampaz, AtHome, bigwes, sar, and Aussie (if your lurking in the cold). have a good one. My eyelids are telling me it is time to close down for the night.

G'night - catch you all later.
gdnite daddyjames
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Quoting zampaz:

If you have a moment, could you please explain the significance of this?
(This is my first "tropical" year...)
-z
okay if you pay real close attention to the number that is out in the atlantic where the High is sitting. It is at i believe thats 1032. The higher the number the stronger the High gets. The Isobars that surrounds it shows u the color patterns towards it. The last Isobar is normally the steering of the storms that may come from Africa or the Caribbean or the atlantic. So the higher the number of the High the stronger it is and blocks any storm coming that way
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1862. zampaz
Quoting daddyjames:


The Bermuda High is extremely strong for this time of year - one reason why people are forecasting that most storms will track further west this year than in the last few years. Also, I believe that the trough that has formed off the east coast of the US towards the end of hurricane seasons, is not projected to form this year. That trough helps to act as a "protective shield" steering storms north and east of the US.

A while back the models were showing a large high consolidating in the mid-Atlantic.
Now I have an understanding of the undercurrent of excitement.
Thanks daddyjames!
-z
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zampaz, AtHome, bigwes, sar, and Aussie (if your lurking in the cold). have a good one. My eyelids are telling me it is time to close down for the night.

G'night - catch you all later.
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Quoting zampaz:

If you have a moment, could you please explain the significance of this?
(This is my first "tropical" year...)
-z


The Bermuda High is extremely strong for this time of year - one reason why people are forecasting that most storms will track further west this year than in the last few years. Also, I believe that the trough that has formed off the east coast of the US towards the end of hurricane seasons, is not projected to form this year. That trough helps to act as a "protective shield" steering storms north and east of the US.
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nice and toasty!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Kind of makes you wonder about patterns getting stuck though.


Especially after Jeanne did a lood-da-loop North of the Bahamas to land in the same place as Frances.

BTW the name of the town was Fort Meade - and Ivan went over a a LLC - not as a storm.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.