Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El NiƱo years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, we got some storms in Wyoming with one tornado warning. Rotation look good enough to have warning on it and tornado could be on ground or about to do so. Nice hook with this storm as well. Warning text also included 4.25 inches hail stones as well. Hook is also looking nice with this storm.



Blue, you said "hook looks nice" twice in your post. lol
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


10 years without a major hurricane landfall in Florida between King in 1950 and Donna in 1960.

Another 10 year period from Betsy in 1965 to Eloise in 1975.
Here is a neat link for storms in Florida from 1950 to 1974...More storms than some might think..Link
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Quoting HurricaneAndre:

Y'all heard of this.




reported
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It is unlikely that Florida will not have any major hurricanes during the next 7 years but that probability is not influenced by the lack of major hurricanes there in the last 8 years.

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Quoting Tazmanian:



nop its heading right in too wind shear




It's already in an area with heavy shear. I haven't looked much at the shear forecasts, but the models want to spin this up in the next few days.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Well, we got some storms in Wyoming with one tornado warning. Rotation look good enough to have warning on it and tornado could be on ground or about to do so. Nice hook with this storm as well. Warning text also included 4.25 inches hail stones as well.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


10 years without a major hurricane landfall in Florida between King in 1950 and Donna in 1960.

Another 10 year period from Betsy in 1965 to Eloise in 1975.


Well, 19% for a seven year period isn't that unlikely at all, and stochastic tells us that it does happen once every while. However, I am talking about the next seven years, therefore, it's not very likely that Florida won't see a single MH through that period.
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Quoting fabian171017:


A 7-year period with no major hurricane landfall is very unlikely for Florida anyway. Assuming an annual MH landfall probability of 21%, a seven year period without a MH landfall is only 19%, thus very unlikely and probably not gonna happen.


10 years without a major hurricane landfall in Florida between King in 1950 and Donna in 1960.

Another 10 year period from Betsy in 1965 to Eloise in 1975.
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Speaking of earthquakes and hurricanes, at least we don't send our own scientists to jail over incorrect hurricane predictions.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I understand your way of thinking; it's difficult to imagine Florida going another 7 years without a major making landfall. But that is nonetheless scientifically incorrect. Any fair toss of a fair coin has a 50% chance of landing heads up, and a 50% chance of landing tails-up. Now, you could conceivably toss the coin 99 times and have it land tails-up every single time. But the chance of it landing heads-up on the 100th toss is still that same 50%-50%...


A 7-year period with no major hurricane landfall is very unlikely for Florida anyway. Assuming an annual MH landfall probability of 21%, a seven year period without a MH landfall is only 19%, thus very unlikely and probably not gonna happen.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest hasn't had much wind with it, but it sure has been a washout today. Another day and this probably would've become Chantal.


I can't say I agree with you. Was checking out the pressures in SC and NC and they are around 1021 mb. I saw no sign of a low.
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Quoting Slamguitar:
The CATL wave looks like to be organizing slowly on the TPW:



Maybe we can bring out the yellow crayons tonight or tomorrow?



nop its heading right in too wind shear


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Nea - I agree that one season has nothing to do with another. But it is the atmospheric long term patterns that do affect the season. I think we can all agree taht there are recurring patterns in the atmosphere, MJO for a shorter term pattern, but there are others as well including decadal and probably centennial patterns too. My theory (without scientific backup) is that these pattersn are one of the reason there is a 'return' period of storms and that if one doesn't see a storm in a certain period of years it is 'due', because the pattern is 'due' to return that makes the environment conducive to TC gensis and a track that puts a certain area at risk.

While one rolling unloaded dice would expect each roll to have the same chance of a # appearing despit the pervious rolls result. I don't believe the atmosphere is entirely like that. The atmosphere is 'loaded' to a certain extent. As stated, Hurricanes release heat and that heat build-up and inequity is like your rocks in a fault line.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10804
Quoting opal92nwf:

Why do you think Florida is not "due to be hit" this year? It has been 8 years since Wilma, and parts of S. Florida see a hurricane every 6 or 7 years.

This is the Gambler's Fallacy. Previous years without a hurricane strike do not increase the probability of a strike this year. Odds are odds.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest hasn't had much wind with it, but it sure has been a washout today. Another day and this probably would've become Chantal.
The storm over us is an invest? Anyway, the storms here in Central NC is causing lot of flash flooding around the area and lot of wrecks. I also got in a wreck myself on way home from work when I hit a massive puddle. Good thing I play lot of online racing games or I would've panic and overcorrected the car.
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Quoting opal92nwf:

Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that as time goes by without a hurricane landfall, there is more of a chance of it happening.
I understand your way of thinking; it's difficult to imagine Florida going another 7 years without a major making landfall. But that is nonetheless scientifically incorrect. Any fair toss of a fair coin has a 50% chance of landing heads up, and a 50% chance of landing tails-up. Now, you could conceivably toss the coin 99 times and have it land tails-up every single time. But the chance of it landing heads-up on the 100th toss is still that same 50%-50%...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
The CATL wave looks like to be organizing slowly on the TPW:



Maybe we can bring out the yellow crayons tonight or tomorrow?
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Not really into the stock market. I have a large index fund position but don't trade.

Stochastic means that the frequency of an event is known (or assumed) but there is no relation between one event and the next. For instance it is possible for a place to get 4 100-year flash floods in a year. And it is also possible that a place might wait 500 years for a 100 year flood.

I don't believe in the 'overdue' concept as far as it relates to an long interval without a hurricane in a specific place making it more likely that that particular place will be hit this year.
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Quoting Cat5hit:


??????


HurricaneAndre's post, not yours.
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Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Over 300 comments now,
Number of comments is not how you get respect around here. Posting good information and good analysis will get you respect. And spamming only the information from NHC is not a great way to get respect. You got to communicate with others on here. Just a tip :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
As others have noted, it doesn't work that way, and that's because there are no stressors accumulating over time to eventually make a cyclone strike Florida.

To use the standard example, consider earthquakes along a known fault line. Seismologists monitor creep along such faults--that is, how far the rocks on either side of a fault move in relation to one another. By looking at that, the historical record, the type of rock, etc., they can give a pretty good frequency for events of a certain magnitude along that fault. As years go by, the rocks on either side of the fault will accumulate stress until, eventually, that stress has built up to such a level that the rocks on both sides are no longer able to stay locked through friction, and they snap back to a more relaxed position--in doing so releasing pent-up energy as an earthquake. The San Andreas fault north of L.A. is extremely unlikely to go another 150 years until the next big earthquake; parts of that fault are, indeed, "due".

Tropical storms, however, are completely different in that regard. They, too, are the earth's way of balancing things, in this case inequalities in temperature, etc., but that's about where the comparison ends. There could theoretically be entire strings of years in which not a single TC spins up in the Atlantic; and there could theoretically be entire strings of years in which Florida is struck by, say, ten or more TCs. Neither is more or less likely to happen than the other, and that's because the activity witnessed this year will have absolutely nothing to do with the behavior witnessed last year--just as this year will have absolutely nothing to do with the activity we witness next year. (I'm oversimplifying, of course; there are obviously long-term atmospheric cycles that influence activity one way or the other. But no season affects any other.)

It's that inherent unpredictability that makes each season interesting. Nail-bitingly worrisome at times, and jaw-droppingly boring at others. But always fascinating...

Good point. There are so many ways to look at this. Although I do think that certain atmospheric patterns that occurred last hurricane season could change or carry over in a way that will affect the general atmospheric set up for this hurricane season.
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Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 113 Comments: 106180
Invest hasn't had much wind with it, but it sure has been a washout today. Another day and this probably would've become Chantal.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
Quoting hydrus:
I have a theory on this, and I believe it is a good one. Florida has a very unique hurricane history, and is downplayed by a few folks. When I can get the time, I want to post on that very subject.

I'll look forward to seeing that. As Nea stated earlier, Florida is geographically unique, so I'm sure the frequency and size of hurricanes that hit Florida, especially south Florida, is also unique.
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Quoting opal92nwf:

Why do you think Florida is not "due to be hit" this year? It has been 8 years since Wilma, and parts of S. Florida see a hurricane every 6 or 7 years.

As others have noted, it doesn't work that way, and that's because there are no stressors accumulating over time to eventually make a cyclone strike Florida.

To use the standard example, consider earthquakes along a known fault line. Seismologists monitor creep along such faults--that is, how far the rocks on either side of a fault move in relation to one another. By looking at that, the historical record, the type of rock, etc., they can give a pretty good frequency for events of a certain magnitude along that fault. As years go by, the rocks on either side of the fault will accumulate stress until, eventually, that stress has built up to such a level that the rocks on both sides are no longer able to stay locked through friction, and they snap back to a more relaxed position--in doing so releasing pent-up energy as an earthquake. The San Andreas fault north of L.A. is extremely unlikely to go another 150 years until the next big earthquake; parts of that fault are, indeed, "due".

Tropical storms, however, are completely different in that regard. They, too, are the earth's way of balancing things, in this case inequalities in temperature, etc., but that's about where the comparison ends. There could theoretically be entire strings of years in which not a single TC spins up in the Atlantic; and there could theoretically be entire strings of years in which Florida is struck by, say, ten or more TCs. Neither is more or less likely to happen than the other, and that's because the activity witnessed this year will have absolutely nothing to do with the behavior witnessed last year--just as this year will have absolutely nothing to do with the activity we witness next year. (I'm oversimplifying, of course; there are obviously long-term atmospheric cycles that influence activity one way or the other. But no season affects any other.)

It's that inherent unpredictability that makes each season interesting. Nail-bitingly worrisome at times, and jaw-droppingly boring at others. But always fascinating...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
Quoting sar2401:

In addition to Astrometeor's explanation, those "return periods" are calculated from 1851 through 2012. I posted a graph earlier that showed active years are not evenly distributed in that period, with the actual time between events ranging from two to twenty years. Even if we were to assume that an area should be hit by the "return date", most of Florida, except for south Florida, has not reached the return date. Even in south Florida, we are just now reaching that magic seven year time between events, but it might be another ten years before south Florida sees another major hurricane...or it might be next month. This same reasoning has been applied to everything from lotto numbers to when it will be a hot summer, and these things turn out to be equal to about chance in terms of being predictable. In late June, you can pretty much flip a coin and use the results to predict the hurricane season as well as all the science we don't have to explain why and when hurricanes occur.

Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that as time goes by without a hurricane landfall, there is more of a chance of it happening based on past occurrence.

Here is something I like to use called the "Extreme Analogy"-

If we went say another 20 years without a Florida hurricane landfall (which at that point that is well over the longest Florida has gone without a hurricane landfall), everyone would be more expecting of one to happen. As long as the atmosphere has not been altered or something, a hurricane will have to strike at some point. That is my reasoning of why I think Florida is more at risk this year. (And especially since we are in the active period that started in 1995)
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Sometimes the same place gets hit hard twice in a month like Frances and Jeanne. Sometimes a place waits 100 years from one hurricane to the next. It's stochastic.

Brian, you must be into the stock market a little. Stochastics has been used for decades to attempt to predict stock market behavior with the same limited success as trying to predict seemingly random behavior in natural sciences. Even looking back over 60 years of very detailed analysis of hurricanes and hurricane seasons hasn't given us enough data to make better than chance predictions. I imagine that, given another couple of hundred years, we may have enough data to build some better models but we sure don't have it now. In theory, the performance of a stock should be relatively dermistic, since we know about everything the stock has done and what's happening in the economy now. Unfortunately, we are still unable to predict an individual stock's performance for more than a few days in the future, if that. Predicting hurricanes is way further off than a better understanding of the stock market.
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Quoting Cat5hit:


It's actually more annoying than reading posts filled with spelling errors.




poofed and reported
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vigorous wave at 40w but its so far south
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Quoting sar2401:

In addition to Astrometeor's explanation, those "return periods" are calculated from 1851 through 2012. I posted a graph earlier that showed active years are not evenly distributed in that period, with the actual time between events ranging from two to twenty years. Even if we were to assume that an area should be hit by the "return date", most of Florida, except for south Florida, has not reached the return date. Even in south Florida, we are just now reaching that magic seven year time between events, but it might be another ten years before south Florida sees another major hurricane...or it might be next month. This same reasoning has been applied to everything from lotto numbers to when it will be a hot summer, and these things turn out to be equal to about chance in terms of being predictable. In late June, you can pretty much flip a coin and use the results to predict the hurricane season as well as all the science we don't have to explain why and when hurricanes occur.
I have a theory on this, and I believe it is a good one. Florida has a very unique hurricane history, and is downplayed by a few folks. When I can get the time, I want to post on that very subject.
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Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Over 300 comments now,


What's your point? Please stop spamming.
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Carol, Hazel CONNIE LOOK IT UP UNDER HURRICANE ARCHIVES.Sandy wnds were only 85mph and mayor bloomberg called it a northeaster.
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# 668: Remember this?

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Quoting help4u:
Lots of Sandy's happened in the 1950's in northeast a lot worst storms only difference is population in area was half and they did not build amusement parks on the ocean.Had about 6 storms then that made Sandy look weak.

Really? Can you give us a list of those six or so storms from the 50's that were worse than Sandy? I grew up during the 50's and have a pretty good memory of those days. There certainly is more population now, and more homes built on the beach now, compared to then, but I do remember riding the roller coaster at Coney Island, and it seems like it was pretty close to the beach. :-)
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Quoting HurricaneAndre:
REMEMBER THIS.



is your caplock stuck or some in
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Sometimes the same place gets hit hard twice in a month like Frances and Jeanne. Sometimes a place waits 100 years from one hurricane to the next. It's stochastic.
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Quoting HurricaneAndre:
HAVE Y'ALL HEARD OF CREEPYPASTAS.



no need too yell plzs
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Quoting opal92nwf:

Why do you think Florida is not "due to be hit" this year? It has been 8 years since Wilma, and parts of S. Florida see a hurricane every 6 or 7 years.


In addition to Astrometeor's explanation, those "return periods" are calculated from 1851 through 2012. I posted a graph earlier that showed active years are not evenly distributed in that period, with the actual time between events ranging from two to twenty years. Even if we were to assume that an area should be hit by the "return date", most of Florida, except for south Florida, has not reached the return date. Even in south Florida, we are just now reaching that magic seven year time between events, but it might be another ten years before south Florida sees another major hurricane...or it might be next month. This same reasoning has been applied to everything from lotto numbers to when it will be a hot summer, and these things turn out to be equal to about chance in terms of being predictable. In late June, you can pretty much flip a coin and use the results to predict the hurricane season as well as all the science we don't have to explain why and when hurricanes occur.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Flare up in NW GOM?
You mean the NE GOM.
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Flare up in NW GOM?
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Lots of Sandy's happened in the 1950's in northeast a lot worst storms only difference is population in area was half and they did not build amusement parks on the ocean.Had about 6 storms then that made Sandy look weak.
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Quoting opal92nwf:

Why do you think Florida is not "due to be hit" this year? It has been 8 years since Wilma, and parts of S. Florida see a hurricane every 6 or 7 years.



Tampa is WAAAAAY overdue by that map.
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Quoting 62901IL:
Has anyone ever quoted the wunderalertbot? if so, have you gotten banned?


WunderAletBot is the Blog.

Resistance is Futile.

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10804
Quoting help4u:
Has been 8 years since the last major hurricane hit United States longest period in history.Very quiet time for tropical weather.

I think only quiet in the sense that there has been no majors since then...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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