Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
What are the odds that spinning a penny will lead to tails side up?

A. 40%
B. 50%
C. 60%
D. 70%
E. 80%


I will provide the answer in a few minutes.


E. Just to be contrary.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
lol Gro.....but I think that maybe everyone can agree with your statement. You might have found the one thing we can all agree on...and that's that there will never be 100% agreement.


Hey, Cos!
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Thought you all might like a cyclone to track: Link

PAC 2013, The Month-Long Arctic Cyclone: Transitioning to a Warm Storm?

Well, it’s official. PAC 2013 has yet to give up the ghost. After transitioning to the Canadian Archipelago, it has now formed a trough composing three low pressure centers that roughly straddles Greenland, Baffin Bay, and the thickest sea ice. At this point, the storm is nearly one month old (with a formation date around May 21-26). Lowest pressures appear to be around 990 mb, but the entire region is covered in rough weather and clouds.

A look at the heat map shows the storm pulling in warmer air from the Alaskan side of the Arctic and from regions around it. This extra energy has given it enough to fuel multiple lows for an extended period. As a by-product, many regions over the Central Arctic are now above freezing. Areas near the low pressure centers still show temperatures in the range of 0 to -3 Celsius. But a broad swath of above-freezing temperatures are now under the circulation of this, rather large, storm.
...................

A Warm Storm persisting in the Central Arctic for long periods is a potential nightmare scenario for sea ice melt. Currently, we have warming conditions in the Central Arctic, a spate of record heat-waves at the periphery in places like Alaska and Scandinavia, a mangled Jet Stream that keeps pumping warmer air into the Arctic, and a storm that is now projected to persist until at least July 1rst. So we now have to consider at least the temporary emergence of the Warm Storm to be a possibility going forward.
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What are the odds that spinning a penny will lead to tails side up?

A. 40%
B. 50%
C. 60%
D. 70%
E. 80%


I will provide the answer in a few minutes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ricderr:
hydrus....we know that a penny...has a fifty fifty chance of landing either heads or tails...now granted weather has much more variables....if flipping that penny.....20 times it lands on heads...on the 21st flip...what is the chance of tails?


The good old Gambler's Fallacy! :)
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
lol Gro.....but I think that maybe everyone can agree with your statement. You might have found the one thing we can all agree on...and that's that there will never be 100% agreement.

Also that we're 100% glad to see Gro still alive and kicking. I think the odds of that statement being incorrect would have too many zeros. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 12794
Quoting CosmicEvents:
lol Gro.....but I think that maybe everyone can agree with your statement. You might have found the one thing we can all agree on...and that's that there will never be 100% agreement.
But maybe we can all agree it's good to have Grothar back? Glad to see you here again, Gro!
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


It would have taken more than a day to become Chantal. I'm thinking 3 days.

That's debatable. It went from being a very broad and weak area of low pressure to a well-defined low overnight, much like Alberto did last year. The Gulf Stream is magical. ;-)

Doesn't matter anyways, it didn't happen.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
Quoting Astrometeor:


Coins don't actually have 50/50 chances. The sides are weighted (literally). Which ever side has the most amount of the coin on it is the side with the lower odds of coming out on top.

Well, yeah, but the whole coin flip thing is a mathematical concept anyway. There's no such thing as a "fair" coin in real life, since any object is subject to some manufacturing variance, and a used coin does differentially wear. We also don't have a "fair" way to toss coins, so we'll never get a truly random coin toss, even if the coin itself was "fair". We don't even have a way to perfectly generate a random number, so all "random" numbers are really pseudo-random. In the video poker example I provided, the seed number is provided by a thermistor inside the machine that measures the temperature to one thousandth of a degree. That reading provides the seed number that starts the psuedo-random number generator operating. The results are then used to decide which 10 cards from a 52 card deck (assuming straight poker) are dealt. Even though that number is not mathematically random, it's close enough that the casinos don't go broke. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 12794
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, I did specifically say "fair toss of a fair coin", meaning that neither the coin nor the flip were rigged in any way. But I know what you mean; if the die were to come up snake eyes 99 consecutive times, I might have a question for the croupier... ;-)
If we ever find ourselves at the same table....please don't question anyone as long as they're still paying off on snake eyes after 99 times with the same dice.
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sar...to a point i would agree...however....what sets apart a tropical storm from any other storm....sans cold core/warm core to most extents is wind speed....as a great example...this blog itself...flood waters...non hurricane storm...kills 500.....as another example...i live in el paso now.....never has it seen a tropical system besides remnants.....however we've had this year alone....about a dozen times of tropical force winds and half that of hurricane force gusts...however we have not have a named storm event
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Coins don't actually have 50/50 chances. The sides are weighted (literally). Which ever side has the most amount of the coin on it is the side with the lower odds of coming out on top.


What are the real odds of heads and tails with quarters?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There was a well-defined low...and still is...visible on radar. Surface observations along the coast down here indicated it was loosely closed.


It would have taken more than a day to become Chantal. I'm thinking 3 days.
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Quoting Grothar:


Good to be back, Doug. I just wonder what the odds are that everyone on the blog would ever agree with something at the same time. (I don't think they have that many zeros) :)
lol Gro.....but I think that maybe everyone can agree with your statement. You might have found the one thing we can all agree on...and that's that there will never be 100% agreement.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If it lands on the same side 99 times I'm betting the ranch that it lands on that side again because it's a "trick" coin.
Well, I did specifically say "fair toss of a fair coin", meaning that neither the coin nor the flip were rigged in any way. But I know what you mean; if the die were to come up snake eyes 99 consecutive times, I might have a question for the croupier... ;-)
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I can't say I agree with you. Was checking out the pressures in SC and NC and they are around 1021 mb. I saw no sign of a low.

There was a well-defined low...and still is...visible on radar. Surface observations along the coast down here indicated it was loosely closed.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Good to see ya Grothar.


Good to be back, Doug. I just wonder what the odds are that everyone on the blog would ever agree with something at the same time. (I don't think they have that many zeros) :)
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Quoting ricderr:
a storm is not classified "major" due to number of deaths of damage, but only by wind speed.....therefore sandy was not major...was it devastating...of course...

Since Sandy wasn't officially even a hurricane at landfall, clearly it can't be classed as a major. OTOH, since Sandy caused more damage than any major hurricane except Katrina, it was some kind of major storm. I don't think we have a classification system that works too well for storms like Sandy.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 12794
Quoting Astrometeor:


Blue, you said "hook looks nice" twice in your post. lol
It happens when you post something without re-reading it.
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ok astrometeor...mr ocd
....and evenly massed.....sides perfectly squared coin...

is that better?
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Should be tornado-warned with this storm in Wyoming. This is the same storm that had warning earlier.

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Good to see ya Grothar.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I understand your way of thinking; it's difficult to imagine Florida going another 7 years without a major making landfall. But that is nonetheless scientifically incorrect. Any fair toss of a fair coin has a 50% chance of landing heads up, and a 50% chance of landing tails-up. Now, you could conceivably toss the coin 99 times and have it land tails-up every single time. But the chance of it landing heads-up on the 100th toss is still that same 50%-50%...

If it lands on the same side 99 times I'm betting the ranch that it lands on that side again because it's a "trick" coin.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I can't say I agree with you. Was checking out the pressures in SC and NC and they are around 1021 mb. I saw no sign of a low.

I noticed the pressures also, Brian. I'm a bit surprised to see as much organization and actual storminess when the pressures were actually higher than what I had here. It seems that the elongated Bermuda high is continuing to maintain a long moisture fetch all the way from the Western Gulf up NE towards the Carolinas. We are starting to get falling pressure now in SE AL with some thunderstroms beginning to fire, and the Panhandle and south Georgia has had storms all afternoon. I guess enough moist unstable air, along with the right shear environment, can wind up pretty decent storms, regardless of what the barometer does.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 12794
Quoting ricderr:
hydrus....we know that a penny...has a fifty fifty chance of landing either heads or tails...now granted weather has much more vairiables....if fliiping that penny.....20 times it lands on heads...on the 21st flip...what is the chance of tails?


Coins don't actually have 50/50 chances. The sides are weighted (literally). Which ever side has the most amount of the coin on it is the side with the lower odds of coming out on top.
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Quoting hydrus:
Sounds like you have been reading Hawking....Greetings Gro..:)


I do, sometimes. But I dropped some change once, and a nickel actually landed standing straight up. So I would assume flipping a coin is not a 50/50 proposition. Therefore, the odds of Florida being hit by a major is not a matter of probability, but inevitability.
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Quoting hydrus:
Who needs poker. The experts have slapped percentiles on the chance of certain area being hit every year for the past thirty years. Not that I ever would want it to happen, but Florida in my opinion, has a much higher chance of being hit this year by a major hurricane than it has in the past 7 years.


Well of course. The odds of a major hurricane hitting Florida in the last 7 years are zero since it didn't happen! So the odds of a major hurricane hitting Florida this year must be higher.
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Quoting hydrus:
Who needs poker. The experts have slapped percentiles on the chance of certain area being hit every year for the past thirty years. Not that I ever would want it to happen, but Florida in my opinion, has a much higher chance of being hit this year by a major hurricane than it has in the past 7 years.


Why do you think that?
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hydrus....we know that a penny...has a fifty fifty chance of landing either heads or tails...now granted weather has much more variables....if flipping that penny.....20 times it lands on heads...on the 21st flip...what is the chance of tails?
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Quoting allancalderini:
Ivan make landfall in Alabama.


Correct. However major hurricane winds did occur in the Florida panhandle.
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has a much higher chance of being hit this year by a major hurricane than it has in the past 7 years.

and you my goodfriend hydrus.....are our first easy money player
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Quoting PlazaRed:
Message to the learned few and the lurking masses:-?
So whats gone wrong in Alberta, Canada?
Seems a lot of places have been washed away and 200,000 people have had to move out.
Is this the North American equivalent of whats going on, or down pouring along in India?
All's quiet here in the Iberian peninsular after last weeks devastating floods.
Oh! Evening everybody in the Western World.
Here's some discussion from CBC Canadian Broadcasting: Link

Why Alberta's floods hit so hard and fast
Record rainfall, saturated ground and unforgiving landscape lead to devastation

Most significant is a large amount of rainfall — up to 200 millimetres in some places. Add in ground that is already saturated because of some more modest precipitation — about 40 millimetres — preceding the deluge. Combine that with areas that were still frozen not far below the surface and a local geography that encourages water to run down hill quickly, and there's a recipe for this week's devastation.
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Quoting Grothar:


What are the odds of it landing on it's side?
Sounds like you have been reading Hawking....Greetings Gro..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
Quoting ricderr:
as a whole, the interpretation of statistics as posted here...makes me want to play poker.....dear admin...could you add a pker section to WU...i want to make some money
Who needs poker. The experts have slapped percentiles on the chance of certain area being hit every year for the past thirty years. Not that I ever would want it to happen, but Florida in my opinion, has a much higher chance of being hit this year by a major hurricane than it has in the past 7 years.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
Quoting Neapolitan:
I understand your way of thinking; it's difficult to imagine Florida going another 7 years without a major making landfall. But that is nonetheless scientifically incorrect. Any fair toss of a fair coin has a 50% chance of landing heads up, and a 50% chance of landing tails-up. Now, you could conceivably toss the coin 99 times and have it land tails-up every single time. But the chance of it landing heads-up on the 100th toss is still that same 50%-50%...


What are the odds of it landing on it's side?
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I found a 17 year period with no major hurricanes making landfall in FL. From Eloise in 1975 to Andrew in 1992.

And that means there was a 27 year period from 1965 to 1992 with only one major hurricane landfall in FL. It's happened before and that means it can happen again.
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Message to the learned few and the lurking masses:-?
So whats gone wrong in Alberta, Canada?
Seems a lot of places have been washed away and 200,000 people have had to move out.
Is this the North American equivalent of whats going on, or down pouring along in India?
All's quiet here in the Iberian peninsular after last weeks devastating floods.
Oh! Evening everybody in the Western World.
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a storm is not classified "major" due to number of deaths of damage, but only by wind speed.....therefore sandy was not major...was it devastating...of course...
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
But....with Charley and Ivan and Jeanne and Wilma what were the odds that Florida would have 4 major hurricanes in the past 9 years? :)
Ivan make landfall in Alabama.
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Quoting ricderr:
as a whole, the interpretation of statistics as posted here...makes me want to play poker.....dear admin...could you add a pker section to WU...i want to make some money
Odds are they won't do that....good try though.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest hasn't had much wind with it, but it sure has been a washout today. Another day and this probably would've become Chantal.
I doubt it.I don´t think it has the organization to become a ts even with an extra day.It was more pobable to become a td than a ts as winds were light to.
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Quoting help4u:
Carol, Hazel CONNIE LOOK IT UP UNDER HURRICANE ARCHIVES.Sandy wnds were only 85mph and mayor bloomberg called it a northeaster.

Hurricane Hazel made landfall in on the NC/SC border. Hurricane Connie made landfall in North Carolina, officially as an 80 mph storm. Hurricane Carol did indeed make landfall in Long Island as a major hurricane. Sandy made landfall in New Jersey with 80 mph winds. Hazel killed 95 people in the CONUS, Connie, killed 69, Hazel killed 95, and Sandy killed 87. In all four storms, the vast majority of people died due to drowning from flooding. Even though Sandy wasn't officially a hurricane at landfall, it was a cat 2 until shortly before landfall, and had cat 1 winds at landfall. Mayor Bloomberg is not a meteorologist. Calling Sandy a "nor'easter" and downplaying how bad it would be didn't turn out well for him. Regardless, none of these four storms qualified as wimps on any scale.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 12794
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
But....with Charley and Ivan and Jeanne and Wilma what were the odds that Florida would have 4 major hurricanes in the past 9 years? :)


No idea, however, the odds of 4 MHs for Florida in two seasons should be 0.97%. Hopefully not gonna happen anytime soon. :)
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as a whole, the interpretation of statistics as posted here...makes me want to play poker.....dear admin...could you add a pker section to WU...i want to make some money
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Timing will be an issue but is a trend this year, with so many strong atlantic waves spinning so early in the season,...meanwhile, in the east pacific and interest situation is unfolding, (95dE) future Cosme, will become the dominant feature and abosrbed 94E, in an obvious 'fujimari' effect weather phenomena in the making,....just my humble opinion...
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Quoting sar2401:

I'll look forward to seeing that. As Nea stated earlier, Florida is geographically unique, so I'm sure the frequency and size of hurricanes that hit Florida, especially south Florida, is also unique.
I mention in passing that my theory is about the pattern changes and configuration...Not just on how Florida is the proverbial sitting duck..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
But....with Charley and Ivan and Jeanne and Wilma what were the odds that Florida would have 4 major hurricanes in the past 9 years? :)
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Much likely Cosme (95E) will become the dominant one and absorbed 94E, in an obvious "fujimari effect" weather phenomena, in the making....
Quoting JLPR2:




I wonder if the TW will pull a 92L and develop a nice LLC before meeting its end.
Timing will bee an issue but is a trend this year, with so many strong atlantic waves spinning so early in the season,...meanwhile, in the east pacific and interest situation is unfolding, (95dE) future Cosme, will become the dominant feature and abosrbed 94E, in an obvious 'fujimari' effect weather phenomena in the making,....just my humble opinion...
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
It is unlikely that Florida will not have any major hurricanes during the next 7 years but that probability is not influenced by the lack of major hurricanes there in the last 8 years.


Yes, that was my thought.

However, it's pretty interesting that the probabilty of seven consecutive years without a MH landfall across the whole U.S. is only approx. 0.7%. This tells us, how extremely lucky the U.S. have been over the last years.
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am gussing the mods are all out for the weekend takeing care of stuff
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114650
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, we got some storms in Wyoming with one tornado warning. Rotation look good enough to have warning on it and tornado could be on ground or about to do so. Nice hook with this storm as well. Warning text also included 4.25 inches hail stones as well. Hook is also looking nice with this storm.



Blue, you said "hook looks nice" twice in your post. lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.