Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Harrowing stories of survival and escape emerge out of High Level, Alberta Link

The upper level pattern is really conducive to storms staying over the same area for hours, even up to a day or more. This is especially true over the foothills of Alberta, where westward-flowing rain clouds are blocked by the Rocky Mountains, sending a deluge downriver. The largest cities of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are all affected, and one of the largest fertile regions of Ontario for growing carrots and onions has been mostly innundated. A single breech in mid-June cost another farmer 97 acres of crop.



I actually live quite close to where this photo was taken in late May. In fact, I even biked to the area about five miles downstream from there a few weeks ago in May, and saw fields upon endless fields of crops with dry land still intact, and dikes filled with water from the Holland River just between them. Back then, it was dry - I was on an off-road section of Yonge Street, and even saw a great blue heron perching on the side. Now, if I were to bike back there again, I would see the land probably all flooded. The damage in Bradford has likely exceeded $1 million CAN, which is close to the same amount in US dollars. The damage in southern Alberta, on the other hand, will likely exceed one billion dollars. Look at this photo, and you'll probably see why.



Here's a second view.



Your Canada correspondent.


OMG - I spent a couple of days last summer in Alberta and now I wonder if the places I visited are still there...

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Look. The HURDAT database has a listing of hurricane strikes by county. It's actually called County By County hurricane strikes(1900-2010) And it lists David as a Cat 2 for Palm Beach County. That's the official database and I'm sticking to it.


I was 21 when David came by. Our house on Pineway Drive in West Palm Beach was surrounded by Australian pine trees, many of which were dead. I remember wishing the storm would knock some of them down, but the strongest winds were offshore and the most it could do was break a few branches. I don't believe official sustained wind speeds in PB County were even at cat 1. From Wikipedia:
"Upon making landfall, David brought a storm surge of only two-four feet (0.6–1.2 m), due to its lack of strengthening and the obtuse angle at which it hit.[2] In addition, David caused strong surf and moderate rainfall, amounting to a maximum of 8.92 inches (227 mm) in Vero Beach.[10] Though it made landfall as a Category 2 storm, the strongest winds were localized, and the highest reported wind occurred in Fort Pierce, with 70 mph (115 km/h) sustained and 95 mph (155 km/h) gusts.[12]"
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Although the fantasyland GFS no longer shows the Gulf storm it is still worth watching the wave around 40W. The latest GFS strengthens it into a strong tropical wave with tropical storm force winds on Monday. At the very least, it should be enough to get the NHC to bring out the crayons.




Later on down the road, some GFS ensemble members also develop the wave with the monsoon trough into a TD in the western Caribbean in a week's time. Some even take it into the Bay of Campeche and develop it further. Sound familiar? i don't think we'll see Barry round 2 but it's something to watch for now...
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Quoting Hurrihistory:
I know all about HURDAT and it's a fine study but the facts are the facts and I'M sticking to it. If a Hurricane hits Miami tomorrow and the highest sustained wind recorded was 58-MPH (for example), then to me it was not a true Hurricane effect, strike, hit or what ever you want to call it.


That's fine. I will go by the official database.
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Quoting Hurrihistory:
The last true Hurricane to hit any part of South Florida before Andrew in 1992 was Hurricane Inez in October of 1966. Plantation Key in the upper Florida Keys,recorded a sustained wind of 98-MPH with a gust to 110-MPH at landfall. David in 1979 and Floyd in 1987 did not produced sustained Hurricane force winds anywhere in South Florida so that makes it (25-Years) without a Hurricane strike before Andrew in 92.


Andrew made up for it.

Quoting Hurrihistory:
I know all about HURDAT and it's a fine study but the facts are the facts and I'M sticking to it. If a Hurricane hits Miami tomorrow and the highest sustained wind recorded was 58-MPH (for example), then to me it was not a true Hurricane effect, strike, hit or what ever you want to call it.


So if a tree falls in a forrest and no one is there to see it, did it really fall?

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Harrowing stories of survival and escape emerge out of High Level, Alberta Link

The upper level pattern is really conducive to storms staying over the same area for hours, even up to a day or more. This is especially true over the foothills of Alberta, where westward-flowing rain clouds are blocked by the Rocky Mountains, sending a deluge downriver. The largest cities of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are all affected, and one of the largest fertile regions of Ontario for growing carrots and onions has been mostly innundated. A single breech in mid-June cost another farmer 97 acres of crop.



I actually live quite close to where this photo was taken in late May. In fact, I even biked to the area about five miles downstream from there a few weeks ago in May, and saw fields upon endless fields of crops with dry land still intact, and dikes filled with water from the Holland River just between them. Back then, it was dry - I was on an off-road section of Yonge Street, and even saw a great blue heron perching on the side. Now, if I were to bike back there again, I would see the land probably all flooded. The damage in Bradford has likely exceeded $1 million CAN, which is close to the same amount in US dollars. The damage in southern Alberta, on the other hand, will likely exceed one billion dollars. Look at this photo, and you'll probably see why.



Here's a second view.



Your Canada correspondent.
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:



I will also respond to sar in this post.
I respect very much your opinions.
Yes I agree you were arguing about analogy. In that case you are completely correct. Allow me to explain.

You are right about me not having had a disaster. I will admit that my mind is pretty sick, wishing for a hurricane. I know that, but it is how I'm wired. I've tried for years and years to stop wishing for storms, despite knowing all the death and destruction that they cause. But it is of no avail. I sit here, alone, without friends my age because of the sick thoughts I have. I've done more than can be described to extinguish it, but nothing works. My mind has sick thoughts of hoping for disaster. I wish this were not the case. It truly is a prison of the mind. I don't seek sympathy or justification for this thinking, but the perverse desire is there, regardless of how hard I try to suppress, deny, or out-rationalize it. I've tried meditation, medications, education, philosophy, empathy, group activities. Nothing works.

But I see the moral of the story: One should not wish an event which has the potential to harm oneself or others. I understand and comprehend that notion thoroughly. I only wish that this perverse desire within could be extinguished.

Well, that is a very honest and forthright response. I'm really sorry you are trapped in this kind of mindset. Have you seen a psychologist or psychiatrist to ask for help? There are things out there that can help you, and I wish you the best of luck feeling better about yourself.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Look. The HURDAT database has a listing of hurricane strikes by county. It's actually called County By County hurricane strikes(1900-2010) And it lists David as a Cat 2 for Palm Beach County. That's the official database and I'm sticking to it.
I know all about HURDAT and it's a fine study but the facts are the facts and I'M sticking to it. If a Hurricane hits Miami tomorrow and the highest sustained wind recorded was 58-MPH (for example), then to me it was not a true Hurricane effect, strike, hit or what ever you want to call it.
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When in a Evac Zone & warned to evacuate for Surge, do it, do it like your like depended on it.

It does.

Uploaded on Oct 4, 2006

Video taken by Vaccarella Family during/after Hurricane Katrina.

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Quoting TylerStanfield:
Good evening everyone.
See the tropics have winded down in the Atlantic while the Eastern Pacific has woken up with two Invests poised to become storms. Ill be making a new blog soon.


I'll be waiting for it.
Wanna see your point of view on this
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting mikatnight:
NOWHERE TO GO
Presidential Disaster Declarations
Related to flooding; shown by county:


Green areas represent one declaration.
Yellow areas represent two declarations.
Orange areas show three declarations.
Red areas represent four or more.
(Between June 1, 1965, and June 1, 2003) – image courtesy of USGS
Puerto Rico is all red...
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Wyoming storm cycled and NROT is back up to 2.87. Rotation is pretty strong on SRV now. However, base reflectivity isn't impressive (no debris ball or hook).

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The last true Hurricane to hit any part of South Florida before Andrew in 1992 was Hurricane Inez in October of 1966. Plantation Key in the upper Florida Keys,recorded a sustained wind of 98-MPH with a gust to 110-MPH at landfall. David in 1979 and Floyd in 1987 did not produced sustained Hurricane force winds anywhere in South Florida so that makes it (25-Years) without a Hurricane strike before Andrew in 92.
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Quoting ricderr:
, I don't have to shovel sunshine off my porch

TA DA DA BOOM!!!!!!!


ahem dak.....it's my job to come up with the one liners....no competition allowed


LOL. No promises. ;)
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Amazing and sad pictures from Calgary... this is what it look like inside NHL arena (Calgary Flames account took the first one and an WHL player took the second one)



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Quoting Hurrihistory:
There were no sustained winds of Hurricane force recorded anywhere in South Florida when David made landfall. The highest sustained winds reported were 58-MPH at the West Palm Beach Weather Service Office and 60-MPH at Jupiter Inlet. Even Fort Pierce which is not considered part of South Florida only had a sustained wind of 70-MPH at landfall.


Look. The HURDAT database has a listing of hurricane strikes by county. It's actually called County By County hurricane strikes(1900-2010) And it lists David in 1979 as a Cat 2 for Palm Beach County. It also lists Floyd in 1987 as a Cat 1 for Monroe county. That's the official database and I'm sticking to it.
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I dont care how rural it is.
No part of the US should be uncovered by our doppler radar network


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840. VR46L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
no storms on the models \?


Nothing interesting... even lala land only as a touch and Go storm Near the Cape Verdes @384
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
My be cycling now with a donut hole.
Rotation may be increasing.



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Quoting Hurrihistory:
There were no sustained winds of Hurricane force recorded anywhere in South Florida when David made landfall. The highest sustained winds reported were 58-MPH at the West Palm Beach Weather Service Office and 60-MPH at Jupiter Inlet. Even Fort Pierce which is not considered part of South Florida only had a sustained wind of 70-MPH at landfall.


See History page of the Hurricane Protocol guide for PB County storms...
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no storms on the models \?
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Good evening everyone.
See the tropics have winded down in the Atlantic while the Eastern Pacific has woken up with two Invests poised to become storms. Ill be making a new blog soon.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The western part of the eye of David passed over northern Palm Beach County near Jupiter.
There were no sustained winds of Hurricane force recorded anywhere in South Florida when David made landfall. The highest sustained winds reported were 58-MPH at the West Palm Beach Weather Service Office and 60-MPH at Jupiter Inlet. Even Fort Pierce which is not considered part of South Florida only had a sustained wind of 70-MPH at landfall.
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:

Sorry but my demographics have no bearing upon the argument I am making.
Nope. Over 25, been through several hurricanes, inside several stroms/tornadoes/straight line wind events with winds well above 100 mph, have stared right down the barrel of a twister. I do own property, pay my bills, and know full well the risk of living here.

People DECIDED to live in a hurricane prone area, that's their choice.

I am aware that some people due to circumstances are not in a place by choice. That would be a terrible situation. For those people, yes a hurricane would be a terrible tragedy.

But listen- deep down inside most people on this forum want to experience some weather action. The adrenaline rush, etc. Most people do want it. Sure, the aftermath sucks but that doesn't stop the perverse desire for a storm


I'll suck back and apologize to you for my last comments. I for one am not on this forum for the "adrenaline rush". I live on an island. I am a member of this blog because I get the information I need when weather is coming our way. Just let me say this: If a hurricane is headed our way, it is not an option for us to climb into a car or jump a plane and run.

Lindy
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 678
832. VR46L
The only thing of interest in the 18z is a Cape verdes Storm @384 hrs

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Rotation has dramatically weakened according to the latest update.
I wouldn't say dramatically, as the rotation is still there. Little messy, but it's still there and still at decent strength.

EDIT: NROT isn't as impressive, though.
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830. auburn (Mod)
Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button ! and ignored.
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829. JLPR2
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Don't miss the super moon tonight....



EarthSky

Tonight's the night! Don't miss the most super supermoon of the year! http://bit.ly/138TAOY

Here it is shining over the Basilica of Superga (Turin, Italy.)
Photo by our friend Stefano de Rosa. Thank you Stefano!


I got cloudy skies. :\ Crossing my fingers and hoping I get to see it tomorrow.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
A hook, debris ball, strong SRV signature, yellow TVS, and 2.75 NROT. Got to be a tornado on ground. My GRLevel3 is still on old computer so I can't see dual-pol radar, but I'm wondering what CC is like now...


Rotation has dramatically weakened according to the latest update.
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A hook, debris ball, strong SRV signature, yellow TVS, and 2.75 NROT. Got to be a tornado on ground. My GRLevel3 is still on old computer so I can't see dual-pol radar, but I'm wondering what CC is like now...

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NOWHERE TO GO
Presidential Disaster Declarations
Related to flooding; shown by county:


Green areas represent one declaration.
Yellow areas represent two declarations.
Orange areas show three declarations.
Red areas represent four or more.
(Between June 1, 1965, and June 1, 2003) – image courtesy of USGS
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:


I did not say you were distorting the argument by referring to me as wishing for a storm. I said the distortion was due to your claim that I thought other people in North Dakota wished for a storm. I never said anything about other people.

Ah, I see. It's called an analogy. Your argument was that no one should live in a hurricane prone area if they are afraid of hurricanes. My response was that people live where they do because of any number of reasons, but I suspect that most people who live in North Dakota don't sit around wishing for a blizzard to EXPLODE because they are bored, even if the don't hate blizzards. Hatred or love of a particular type of weather has nothing to do with wishing a storm which killed people and destroyed property in the past, would repeat itself because you're bored. If Dennis did, in fact, repeat itself, I would track it with interest, first, because it might kill me or destroy my property and, second, because I find tropical weather fascinating. What I wish for is a big hurricane that wanders around the Atlantic and troubles nothing but fish.
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Likely a large and damaging tornado on ground in SE Wyoming now. Got yellow TVS (turn off to see SRV better) and 2.63 NROT.

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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:


That's why I hate insurance companies. They treat you like you are worthless.
After paying thousands to this certain company 30 years I finally had to make a claim...This freekin' jerk said I actually did it on purpose to collect the money...Needless to say with my connections he was fired the next day..
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:


Bring it on man. I'm not afraid of anything. What's the point of living life in fear? I can take it.


I would hazard a guess that you don't own a home, your livelihood doesn't depend on the ocean, you don't own a boat(s), you have no dependants and you've never experienced the wrath and fury of what a hurricane can inflict on you.

-L
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 678
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26823
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26823
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Cosmic..I feel that you have no power.Been there a few times in south Florida...up to 15 days a few times... Cold showers sure suck.... As far as insurance companies...I have paid for many, many years when they are your friend...Just wait til you have a claim because of weather related damage... They treat you like "Freekin" dirt...
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The thrill is gone after 48 hours with no power, and years of aftermath paying thousands extra in homeowner's insurance. These folks who perversely want a storm...I sorta' question whether they're the one writing the check for the hurricane insurance or if it's another family member who's payin' the bills.
Cosmic..I feel your in no power.Been there a few times in south Florida...up to 15 days a few times... Cold showers sure suck.... As far as insurance companies...I have paid for many, many years when they are your friend...Just wait til you have a claim because of weather related damage... They treat you like "Freekin" dirt...
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GEFS is going crazy. It has been consistently showing one of the most amplified states of the MJO I've ever seen forecasted. I don't think this forecast will verify particularly well, but for fun let's just take a look at what would happen should the GEFS be right.

If you haven't seen the GFS Ensemble MJO forecast already, take a look at it here. It predicts an extremely amplified MJO centered around phases 8/1 which corresponds best to the Eastern Pacific. Most have already noticed the TCs it spins up in the area as a result, but there are also significant global implications of such an amplified MJO.

For example, below is the week 2 7-day GFS Ensemble average of the velocity potential anomaly at 200mb. Green areas represent anomalous rising air, red areas represent anomalous sinking air. Notice the massive blob of green centered on the eastern Pacific.




Because of all the rising air over the area, pressures at the surface are also very low. Here is the 11-15 day 5 day average MSLP anomaly.




And as a result of the MSLP anomaly, we get a massive zonal east to west) wind anomaly across the Pacific Ocean. Below is the week 2 7-day GFS Ensemble zonal wind anomaly. Positive values (red shading) indicate anomalous westerly wind, negative values (purple shading) indicate anomalous easterly wind. In the tropics, red (purple) shading means lighter (stronger) trade winds.




As you can see, the highly persistent (stuck) and amplified MJO in the eastern Pacific leads to a huge zonal wind anomaly across the Pacific. This kind of an event, should it occur, would almost undoubtedly send us into El Nino-like conditions. In addition, many of those calling for a "hyperactive" July in the Atlantic would probably be wrong according to the GEFS. The model is calling for a hyperactive East Pacific, not a hyperactive Atlantic. However, as I mentioned earlier, this forecast is unlikely to verify. In fact, the GFS is one of the worst models at forecasting the MJO. Most likely the MJO will strongly (not as strong as the GEFS predicts) amplify into the EPAC throughout next week. By the first week of July the MJO will begin to head into our basin, though it should weaken as it does so -- it's hard to maintain a significantly amplified MJO state for a prolonged period of time. I expect enhanced activity in our basin around and maybe slightly before the second week of July as the UKMET and ECMWF indicate.

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Quoting hydrus:
This map shows the tracks of all Tropical cyclones from 1950 to 1974 with effects in Florida.

Looks like my Christmas lights when I take them out of the box and try to untangle them...again. :-) I wonder, if we had records, how many linear miles of the Florida coast have never been hit by a tropical storm.
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:



I never said that people "wished" for a blizzard because they were bored. That is a distortion of my argument. My argument is that if you hate storms so much, don't live in a place with them. I know some people don't have a choice, I get that. Life ain't fair to anyone, and I don't wish misfortune on anyone

You do realize your exact words are still in post #770, written by someone whom I assume is you, right?
"Man I hope the wave going into the Caribbean in a few days EXPLODES. I would love to see some good action, a Dennis repeat would be awesome. It has been so boring since 2005. And Dennis only gave us TS Winds. I wanna see some hurricane winds."
Seems quite clear to me. You WISH their would be a repeat of Dennis because Dennis was awesome, and you're bored. How is that a distorion of an argument you never made?
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The western part of the eye of David passed over northern Palm Beach County near Jupiter.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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