Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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94E is getting close being a TD. 0z ATCF update has the pressure down a mb to 1006 and more importantly winds up to 30kts.

EP, 94, 2013062300, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1030W, 30, 1006, LO

Maybe a renumber tomorrow late morning/afternoon.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Extreme heat is coming to the west next weekend. Highs could reach 130 degrees and lows will be in the triple digits in Death Valley. Below is next Saturday's NWS point forecast for a select spot near Death Valley:




yes you are reading that correctly, a high five degrees from the highest accepted temperature ever recorded (134F recorded at Death Valley) and a "low" of 100 degrees. The NWS point forecast doesn't go out past Saturday, but Sunday could be even warmer...


Peachy. ..as some Georgians say...
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For today's Outlook. ..notice timing.
f
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trying to close off
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Quoting mikatnight:


I was 21 when David came by. Our house on Pineway Drive in West Palm Beach was surrounded by Australian pine trees, many of which were dead. I remember wishing the storm would knock some of them down, but the strongest winds were offshore and the most it could do was break a few branches. I don't believe official sustained wind speeds in PB County were even at cat 1. From Wikipedia:
"Upon making landfall, David brought a storm surge of only two-four feet (0.6–1.2 m), due to its lack of strengthening and the obtuse angle at which it hit.[2] In addition, David caused strong surf and moderate rainfall, amounting to a maximum of 8.92 inches (227 mm) in Vero Beach.[10] Though it made landfall as a Category 2 storm, the strongest winds were localized, and the highest reported wind occurred in Fort Pierce, with 70 mph (115 km/h) sustained and 95 mph (155 km/h) gusts.[12]"
I remember David well. We were in Moore Haven. It was bad Sustained around 50 with gusts to 70..mph
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21031
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think 95E is being underestimated. According to late evening satellite loops, a better low-level circulation is beginning to develop. More convection and we're set. It's expected to be in a favorable environment for the next 48 hours before it begins to Fujiwhara with 94E and be absorbed.


I agree on what you said about 95E. It looks good on satellite images with organized convection. The low-level circulation is well-defined but needs to be a little more stronger. 95E still has an opportunity to develop by the next day or two, if deep convection maintains and has a stronger circulation.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Extreme heat is coming to the west next weekend. Highs could reach 130 degrees and lows will be in the triple digits in Death Valley. Below is next Saturday's NWS point forecast for a select spot near Death Valley:




Yes, you are reading that correctly, a high five degrees from the highest accepted temperature ever recorded (134F recorded at Death Valley) and a "low" of 100 degrees. The NWS point forecast doesn't go out past Saturday, but Sunday could be even warmer...
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting mikatnight:


The last time Palm Beach County received a direct hit from a major was 1949. Nearly 64 years ago.
The 1947 hurricane did give Palm Beach a whipping.:o
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21031
899. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:
i would have gave 95E a high 70% ch has it seems like 95E is out winning 94E all so if 95E dos fourm has any one noted how small 95E is


95 caster.....:)
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Death toll in Uttarakhand touches 1,000, killer rain may return in 48 hours


Let's hope this doesn't happen in Alberta

The floods followed some 36 hours of unusually heavy rainfall - some communities received six months of their normal rainfall in under two days. LINK




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Quoting Civicane49:
94E continues to gradually become better organized and environmental conditions support further development of this. We should see this becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow or so. Although a weaker low 95E is continuing to show some signs of organization, it is running out of time to develop as it will soon interact with the organizing low to the east.



I think 95E is being underestimated. According to late evening satellite loops, a better low-level circulation is beginning to develop. More convection and we're set. It's expected to be in a favorable environment for the next 48 hours before it begins to Fujiwhara with 94E and be absorbed.
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895. SLU
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah GFS keeps it an open wave.

The other global models are even less enthusiastic.


Regardless of the outcome, this is the second reminder for this month in the MDR that it's going to be a hectic year in the deep tropics.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5060
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's a look at the wave now:

Thats a good looking wave!!
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94E continues to gradually become better organized and environmental conditions support further development of this. We should see this becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow or so. Although a weaker low 95E is continuing to show some signs of organization, it is running out of time to develop as it will soon interact with the organizing low to the east.


Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hmm.. How did 2012 go... ?
Forgot.


2012 only had Chris and Debby in June. Alberto and Beryl were in May....
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maybe this is right!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 22019
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah GFS keeps it an open wave.

The other global models are even less enthusiastic.


Tom, by the way, thanks a lot for your recent comprehensive posts for example about MJO-forecasts!
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Death toll in Uttarakhand touches 1,000, killer rain may return in 48 hours

HT Correspondents & Agencies Dehradun, June 22, 2013
Last Updated: 01:13 IST(23/6/2013)

With more than 22,000 people still stranded in the flood-devastated upper reaches of Uttarakhand, where 1,000 people have been killed according to state chief minister Vijay Bahuguna, the likelihood of moderate rains on Sunday and worse the day after came as bad news.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/NorthInd iaRainFury2013/Death-toll-in-Uttarakhand-touches-1 -000-killer-rain-may-return-in-48-hours/Article1-1 080738.aspx



http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/23/world/asia/floo ding-kills-hundreds-in-northern-india.html
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah GFS keeps it an open wave.

The other global models are even less enthusiastic.


If the CMC doesn't do anything with it, then you know nothing will happen.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i would have gave 95E a high 70% ch has it seems like 95E is out winning 94E all so if 95E dos fourm has any one noted how small 95E is


I noticed that too, 95E isn't carrying a lot of excess weight which should make it easier to spin up, but also easier to get absorbed. Should be a good show.
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Quoting SLU:
Expect the NHC to be very conservative with this wave as per usual. 40kts 10m winds but it may struggle to close off its LLC due to its fast 20kts westward motion.

Yeah GFS keeps it an open wave.

The other global models are even less enthusiastic.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hmm.. How did 2012 go... ?
Forgot.


Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
i would have gave 95E a high 70% ch has it seems like 95E is out winning 94E all so if 95E dos fourm has any one noted how small 95E is
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Quoting Cat5hit:


How do you feel about Katrina?



Just noticed your handle...I tell ya, gotta give you points for creativity! (why didn't I think of that?) - lol
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

I actually live quite close to where this photo was taken in late May. In fact, I even biked to the area about five miles downstream from there a few weeks ago in May, and saw fields upon endless fields of crops with dry land still intact, and dikes filled with water from the Holland River just between them. Back then, it was dry - I was on an off-road section of Yonge Street, and even saw a great blue heron perching on the side. Now, if I were to bike back there again, I would see the land probably all flooded. The damage in Bradford has likely exceeded $1 million CAN, which is close to the same amount in US dollars. The damage in southern Alberta, on the other hand, will likely exceed one billion dollars. Look at this photo, and you'll probably see why.
Your Canada correspondent.


Thank you very much for your report. This is really, really awful. I would like to offer some sandbags from recently flooded parts of Germany - now that the floods receded, they've got some good ideas what to do with them - but obviously it is too late. And it seems the flooding caught the people in Alberta by surprise.

3 dead, downtown Calgary off-limits, more flooding possible in western Canada
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hmm.. How did 2012 go... ?
Forgot.



It blew by fast.

(Sorry ricderr)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 22019
Hurricane Damage Potential


When the cost from hurricane related damages are normalized (normalization takes into account inflation, changes in population, and changes in wealth to arrive at a common level for comparison) the result shows an eighth-power increase in damages from category to category. What this means is the potential damage from a hurricane is 2 to the 8th power. For example, a doubling of the wind speed from 75 mph to 150 mph is not a doubling or quadrupling of potential damage but a 256 times increase (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2=256). This is evident in that over 85% of all damages from hurricanes come from category three, four, and five storms, yet these storms make up only 24% of all landfalling storms. The following table shows the rate of increase for various wind speeds in a hurricane as compared to a minimal 75 mph category one hurricane.

LINK
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
If Chantal formed before June 30....would this be the 1st Atlantic season with 3 June storms?


Hmm.. How did 2012 go... ?
Forgot.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
If Chantal formed before June 30....would this be the 1st Atlantic season with 3 June storms?

No. The 1886 Atlantic hurricane season saw three Category 2 hurricanes, the 1936 Atlantic hurricane season saw two weak tropical storms and a Category 1 hurricane, and the 1968 Atlantic hurricane season saw two Category 1 hurricanes and a tropical storm.

You can see the highest number of named storms by month here.
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874. SLU
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
If Chantal formed before June 30....would this be the 1st Atlantic season with 3 June storms?


4th after 1886, 1936 and 1968.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5060
873. SLU
Expect the NHC to be very conservative with this wave as per usual. 40kts 10m winds but it may struggle to close off its LLC due to its fast 20kts westward motion.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5060
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Interesting wording from the latest TWO for 95E.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
IN A DAY OR TWO DUE TO THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE
TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
ERRATICALLY.



but isnt 95E out winning 94E?
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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222342
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
IN A DAY OR TWO DUE TO THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE
TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
ERRATICALLY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting Hurrihistory:
Yes it did. I see your point but we are not talking about tree's. We are talking true Hurricane force conditions.


The last time Palm Beach County received a direct hit from a major was 1949. Nearly 64 years ago.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
If Chantal formed before June 30....would this be the 1st Atlantic season with 3 June storms?


No, but it will be tied with 1886, 1936 and 1968 having three named storms in June.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Hurrihistory:
Yes it did. I see your point but we are not talking about tree's. We are talking true Hurricane force conditions.


And I am just playing Devil's advocate and trying to keep some discussion going on the blog.

The real troubling thing to me is that it was a 'Major' Hurricane that brought strong TS conditions to WPB. Lately, we now have Strong TS's bringing hurricane type conditions or lower end Hurricane's bringing MAJOR type destructions. One of the reasons the rating scale needs to be tweaked.
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Interesting wording from the latest TWO for 95E.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
IN A DAY OR TWO DUE TO THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE
TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
ERRATICALLY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Chantal formed before June 30....would this be the 1st Atlantic season with 3 June storms?
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Quoting TomTaylor:


Although the fantasyland GFS no longer shows the Gulf storm it is still worth watching the wave around 40W. The latest GFS strengthens it into a strong tropical wave with tropical storm force winds on Monday. At the very least, it should be enough to get the NHC to bring out the crayons.




Later on down the road, some GFS ensemble members also develop the wave with the monsoon trough into a TD in the western Caribbean in a week's time. Some even take it into the Bay of Campeche and develop it further. Sound familiar? i don't think we'll see Barry round 2 but it's something to watch for now...

The wave has decent conditions in the short term as well. Sea surface temperatures are near 27C, it has an impressive moisture bubble, and the GFS indicates some sort of small anticyclone above it.

Chances [for Chantal] are slim, but who knows? Reminds me of Invest 92L.
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Quoting Dakster:


Andrew made up for it.



So if a tree falls in a forrest and no one is there to see it, did it really fall?

Yes it did. I see your point but we are not talking about tree's. We are talking true Hurricane force conditions.
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I've posted my 22nd daily blog of the season on the Atlantic tropics...including an extended outlook for the next week in my intro statements. Included is mention of that tropical wave around 40W....which I don't see developing until it gets toward the W Caribbean....
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Quoting mikatnight:


I was 21 when David came by. Our house on Pineway Drive in West Palm Beach was surrounded by Australian pine trees, many of which were dead. I remember wishing the storm would knock some of them down, but the strongest winds were offshore and the most it could do was break a few branches. I don't believe official sustained wind speeds in PB County were even at cat 1. From Wikipedia:
"Upon making landfall, David brought a storm surge of only two-four feet (0.6–1.2 m), due to its lack of strengthening and the obtuse angle at which it hit.[2] In addition, David caused strong surf and moderate rainfall, amounting to a maximum of 8.92 inches (227 mm) in Vero Beach.[10] Though it made landfall as a Category 2 storm, the strongest winds were localized, and the highest reported wind occurred in Fort Pierce, with 70 mph (115 km/h) sustained and 95 mph (155 km/h) gusts.[12]"
I rest my case!
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Latest GFS..Seems like it push the heaviest activity back into the Caribbean..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21031
Here's a look at the wave now:

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Harrowing stories of survival and escape emerge out of High Level, Alberta Link

The upper level pattern is really conducive to storms staying over the same area for hours, even up to a day or more. This is especially true over the foothills of Alberta, where westward-flowing rain clouds are blocked by the Rocky Mountains, sending a deluge downriver. The largest cities of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are all affected, and one of the largest fertile regions of Ontario for growing carrots and onions has been mostly innundated. A single breech in mid-June cost another farmer 97 acres of crop.



I actually live quite close to where this photo was taken in late May. In fact, I even biked to the area about five miles downstream from there a few weeks ago in May, and saw fields upon endless fields of crops with dry land still intact, and dikes filled with water from the Holland River just between them. Back then, it was dry - I was on an off-road section of Yonge Street, and even saw a great blue heron perching on the side. Now, if I were to bike back there again, I would see the land probably all flooded. The damage in Bradford has likely exceeded $1 million CAN, which is close to the same amount in US dollars. The damage in southern Alberta, on the other hand, will likely exceed one billion dollars. Look at this photo, and you'll probably see why.



Here's a second view.



Your Canada correspondent.


OMG - I spent a couple of days last summer in Alberta and now I wonder if the places I visited are still there...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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