Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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1008. FOREX
3:24 AM GMT on June 23, 2013
Quoting SLU:
The ASCAT missed it as usual but northerly winds can be seen ahead of the wave axis indicating that a circulation may be forming.



which wave or disturbance is this?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
1007. Tropicsweatherpr
3:23 AM GMT on June 23, 2013
If 94E continues to look like this in the next 6 hours,it will be a TD.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327
1006. BahaHurican
3:17 AM GMT on June 23, 2013
Quoting Hurrihistory:
There were no sustained winds of Hurricane force recorded anywhere in South Florida when David made landfall. The highest sustained winds reported were 58-MPH at the West Palm Beach Weather Service Office and 60-MPH at Jupiter Inlet. Even Fort Pierce which is not considered part of South Florida only had a sustained wind of 70-MPH at landfall.
David was only cat one when it passed west of here... good thing, too, because nobody was ready for worse. That was my first "aware" hurricane.

Quoting Dakster:


And I am just playing Devil's advocate and trying to keep some discussion going on the blog.

The real troubling thing to me is that it was a 'Major' Hurricane that brought strong TS conditions to WPB. Lately, we now have Strong TS's bringing hurricane type conditions or lower end Hurricane's bringing MAJOR type destructions. One of the reasons the rating scale needs to be tweaked.
Never thought of David as a major at US landfall. IIRC David's worst damage was done over Hispaniola. I know only relatively light damage took place here, where they did actually measure hurricane force winds.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
1005. hurricanehunter27
3:13 AM GMT on June 23, 2013
Question for anyone willing to answer. How common if at all is it for a cyclone to hit Thailand? Is July out of the question or possible? I see there is a system near Vietnam currently. I am going to be on the coast for all of July and do not want to be surprised by something.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
1004. stormpetrol
3:09 AM GMT on June 23, 2013


I will post this Windsat as according to the Mod when they do post it, it is working. Looks like circulation forming.
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1003. SLU
3:08 AM GMT on June 23, 2013
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

How does a computer model determine the strength of a tropical wave rolling off of Africa at 384 hours out? The wave doesn't even exist yet!


Using the initial conditions, the model can simulate what it thinks the pattern will be like at a given timeframe. The wave may not always develop but the GFS is saying that the pattern in 2 weeks may favour the waves getting more organised.
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1001. BahaHurican
3:05 AM GMT on June 23, 2013
Good evening to all, BTW... finally bringing a hectic week to a close, and hopefully getting ready for a bit of a break from the early / late cycle at work...

Hopefully if we get another round of storms with this next MJO I'll have some free time to track.

Meanwhile the Twave that's moving through here has produced some showers across New Providence today, but nothing too heavy.
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1000. SLU
The ASCAT missed it as usual but northerly winds can be seen ahead of the wave axis indicating that a circulation may be forming.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5259
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


I'll suck back and apologize to you for my last comments. I for one am not on this forum for the "adrenaline rush". I live on an island. I am a member of this blog because I get the information I need when weather is coming our way. Just let me say this: If a hurricane is headed our way, it is not an option for us to climb into a car or jump a plane and run.

Lindy
Hear hear. I am not denying there is an adrenaline rush associated with hurricanes. Unfortunately for most of those of us who have experienced them, the positive qualities of that rush are much outweighed by the larger concerns of survival of self, family and home / property. The blog for us is a forum of power: the power to see the storm form, predict where it might go, and mitigate against disaster to the best of our ability. It's hard for us to understand wanting to experience a storm for the "fun" of it; the last time most of us felt that way, if ever, was when we were kids, and this active period wasn't even the twinkle in the eye of a HHer pilot.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting sar2401:

I can't imagine how terrible a dewpoint of 80 would feel in Death Valley. I had a buddy who was the resident CHP officer in the Valley back in the mid-70's. I did several ride-alongs with him, including one in August. He and the park ranger traded off reading the instruments and sending a teletype to the NWS with four readings a day, 0600, 1200, 1800, and 2330.

The first day I was there in August, we had a high of 124. As I remember, the dewpoint at 1200 was 9 degrees. The office was kept bearable by evaporative coolers, and the dewpoint was low enough so the pads would sometimes ice up. We had to wear gloves at all times when we were out, since touching anything metal resulted in second degree burns otherwise. When the monsoons came in, the temperature would "drop" into the 105-110 range, but the dewpoint would go up in the 20's and low 30's. He said it was the hottest he'd ever been in his life, and he'd much rather have 125 with a dewpoint of 10. He and his family stayed at that post for over five years. I have no idea why, but he said he liked the fact that there wasn't a supervisor within 250 miles. :-)


I concurr.Doesn't take much humidity to make it unbearable when so hot. Even now to me LOL 75' is usually too much for me, cause ofthe humidity!
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Quoting wxchaser97:

The latest 00z run also had a decent wave come off Africa. Maybe this is a sign of things to come, or maybe it won't verify, that will be determined later.


I've learned from experience that on a GFS forecast that far out...if it is shown now, it wont happen when the time gets here. But then again that was for eastern United States, might be different for an Atlantic forecast...

I want another Igor.
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For south Florida "cone of uncertainty heads"
1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane details.

Link
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Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
992. VirginIslandsVisitor Broken link

can't fix link, go here....

www.cbc.ca

Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5922
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 6:53 PM PDT on June 22, 2013
Clear
79 °F
Clear
Humidity: 38%
Dew Point: 51 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 17 mph
Pressure: 29.78 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: 4.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

topped out at 86.8 (third day in a row at that temp) Deja Vu.....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5922
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Could someone with better geographical knowledge than I, explain where the rivers flooding Calgary drain to? Do they cross into Montana or North Dakota? Where is this crest heading?



Link

That will take you to the links for your answers and live coverage. It looks like the crest is now heading to Medicine Hat (evacuations happening now) and Lethbridge. What a mess!

-L
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Quoting wxchaser97:

The latest 00z run also had a decent wave come off Africa. Maybe this is a sign of things to come, or maybe it won't verify, that will be determined later.

How does a computer model determine the strength of a tropical wave rolling off of Africa at 384 hours out? The wave doesn't even exist yet!
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.
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Quoting Dakster:


Since now in the summer I can barely touch the steering wheel of my car in the afternoon, I can only IMAGINE how hot that must have been.

Being isolated has its postiives and negatives...


Used to work in Lancaster, Calif. for a few summers back in 2002-2006 and when I got off from 12-1PM it would be HOT. My old car doesn't have AC but it did have a thermometer that was usually way up there. It was one that came from an Auto parts store and had a floating compass in it. Well it did till the water went missing. I always had a pair of leather gloves and a light colored long sleeve shirt for sunburn protection. It would be OK once the temp in the car got under 100F. (it topped out at 160F)
Yes and it was very dry so it wasn't all drippy. Glad I got a region closer to where I lived at the time. All that heat will fry your brain, explains allot though.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5922
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHAMBERLAIN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SPENCER IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 345...WW 346...WW 347...WW 348...

DISCUSSION...WAA TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH ALONG ELEVATED WSW-ENE FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER SE SD. OTHER STORMS MAY MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY ENE FROM MCS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS IN N CNTRL NEB. DEEP SHEAR AND ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF MAIN NRN RCKYS UPR IMPULSE...TO THE CONTINUED NE MOTION OF LEAD IMPULSE NOW IN W CNTRL NEB...AND TO NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY LLJ. SETUP COULD YIELD A COMPLEX MIX OF STRONG TO SVR STORM CLUSTERS...SOME OF WHICH COULD YIELD HIGH WIND...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THROUGH EARLY SUN.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...CORFIDI


anyway, as usual these days going to 'post and run.'
Have a great evening everyone.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


People even say we are "overdue" on the news here for the Tampa Bay area to be hit. I try my best to explain the way probability works but it seems human nature loves to succumb to gamblers reasoning.

It's essentially the same as the man who wastes a large amount of his money on the powerball because he is convinced he is "lucky" and has a high shot at winning the powerball because he won prizes at his company raffle or won $10 recently from a scratch off ticket.



The whole concept of 'luck' is fascinating. Why are some people 'luckier' than others. Nearly anyone who's successful will tell you it's because they worked hard, and of course, that's true. But what made them want to work hard in the first place?
I saw a (rare) interview with Robert De Niro who was asked, what's it like when people come up to you and say you're a legend or an icon? After stammering a bit, he replied, "I don't know, I was lucky - I'm lucky, I guess." The interviewer pressed him and said, well surely there's more to it than that. Your work ethic, your preparation for the roles you've played are well known. He replied, "Well then, I'm lucky I was driven to work hard."
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18z GFS had a very potent tropical wave or tropical depression over the southern Cape Verde Islands at the end of its run, likely in response to the MJO expected to enter the region around that time.

Just FYI.


The latest 00z run also had a decent wave come off Africa. Maybe this is a sign of things to come, or maybe it won't verify, that will be determined later.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Friday Sunny and hot, with a high near 126.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 100.
Saturday Sunny and hot, with a high near 129.

But its a dry heat..... lol


You got there first Pedley...my bad...Im catching up on the blog.
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Just realized this, fascinating and cool choice of a handle by Grothar, the Santerian god of weather.
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Quoting Grothar:

That's a great picture of strawberry shortcake with lots of whipped cream...oh, wait, is that supposed to have something to do with weather? :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16096
Quoting TomTaylor:
Extreme heat is coming to the west next weekend. Highs could reach 130 degrees and lows will be in the triple digits in Death Valley. Below is next Saturday's NWS point forecast for a select spot near Death Valley:




Yes, you are reading that correctly, a high five degrees from the highest accepted temperature ever recorded (134F recorded at Death Valley) and a "low" of 100 degrees. The NWS point forecast doesn't go out past Saturday, but Sunday could be even warmer...


But it's a dry heat!....LOL
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Don't forget the bugs, they're out too. I got about a dozen to two dozen bug bites last night playing ultimate frisbee with some friends and they itch a lot.


For some reason the bugs aren't bad right now. A few weeks ago was a different story, I'd come back from a run and find out later that I have almost more surface area of skin with mosquito bites than without.

Maybe I'm running faster now so those buggers can't latch onto me. They typically go crazy for my B positive blood.
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Good night, ehrmmm, good morning from Germany ...
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Quoting Grothar:
Nice little feature in the mid-Atlantic.




Evening all -

Looks like the little wave to our east will be lucky to have enough umph for a rain shower. Day 14 here with nothing measurable.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I understand your way of thinking; it's difficult to imagine Florida going another 7 years without a major making landfall. But that is nonetheless scientifically incorrect. Any fair toss of a fair coin has a 50% chance of landing heads up, and a 50% chance of landing tails-up. Now, you could conceivably toss the coin 99 times and have it land tails-up every single time. But the chance of it landing heads-up on the 100th toss is still that same 50%-50%...


People even say we are "overdue" on the news here for the Tampa Bay area to be hit. I try my best to explain the way probability works but it seems human nature loves to succumb to gamblers reasoning.

It's essentially the same as the man who wastes a large amount of his money on the powerball because he is convinced he is "lucky" and has a high shot at winning the powerball because he won prizes at his company raffle or won $10 recently from a scratch off ticket.

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Nice little feature in the mid-Atlantic.


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Quoting Slamguitar:
Just got back from a supermoon-lit late evening jog. Calm winds, clear skies, and humidity you can swim in makes it pretty refreshing and beautiful out tonight.

Now to get some frosty beers in ma belly and catch up on the blog. :-)


Don't forget the bugs, they're out too. I got about a dozen to two dozen bug bites last night playing ultimate frisbee with some friends and they itch a lot.
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Quoting Grothar:


You seen nothing first. :)




LOL
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Just got back from a supermoon-lit late evening jog. Calm winds, clear skies, and humidity you can swim in makes it pretty refreshing and beautiful out tonight.

Now to get some frosty beers in ma belly and catch up on the blog. :-)

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Quoting Dakster:


Since now in the summer I can barely touch the steering wheel of my car in the afternoon, I can only IMAGINE how hot that must have been.

Being isolated has its postiives and negatives...

Yeah, that was a long five days. When he handed me the gloves, I thought he was kidding until I accidentally touched the door handle of the Ramcharger without the gloves. I knew he wasn't kidding after that. :-) The Ramcharger had an extra air conditiining unit on the roof, along with with two radiators the size of a double bed. Both air conditioners running full blast would keep the interior down to about 90. We could idle, with the hood propped open and facing into the breeze (such as it was) for about 10 minutes before the truck started to overheat. He had to turn off the air conditioning altogether if wanted to go above 60. Death Valley is actually quite a beautiful place in the summer, with the intense sunlight and unlimited visibility. It did look much better on film than it did in person though.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




i saw it 1st


You seen nothing first. :)
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Quoting sar2401:

You might be disappointed in the Birmingham radar. I was watching it live that day and there were a number of glitches due to the recent dual pol upgrade. The Birmingham site (actually south of Birmingham) is also shielded by a range of hills from where most of the worst tornadoes occured. Combined with a persistent ground clutter problem, I think you'll find the Columbus site will give you the best picture of that day. I'll be interested to hear what you think, viewing it on GR2A though.


Well, I wasn't sure which to use as I didn't tracked April 27th storms so closely as I do now (although I did peek at NWS radar on their website and watch the event on TWC). Based on what you said, I'm going to view Columbus radar first. I got to "fight" the computer for the download as downloading sometimes fails and sometimes successful and transfer the files from old to new laptop because the download never work on new one for whatever reason. Downloading and transferring is actually lightning quick despite around 1 GB of files, but the fighting part make it take longer than it should be. I got no other way, though so I'll live with it.
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Quoting daddyjames:


Yet, that is the most I have laughed in a bit - only because we took it in stride with your usual self ;) LOL


Thanks, dj.
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Quoting Grothar:


But the funniest part is that you were 4 years ahead of me in school. (How's by old buddy doing?)


Doing really very well, thanks.
Keeping busy and out of trouble. Need to change that :))

Great to see you are still on the ball !
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18z GFS had a very potent tropical wave or tropical depression over the southern Cape Verde Islands at the end of its run, likely in response to the MJO expected to enter the region around that time.

Just FYI.



Nothing interesting to look at right now, but it's interesting to see the model already sniffing out tropical waves developing in July.
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Quoting pottery:

It must be really wonderful to remember that far back......

heheheheh


But the funniest part is that you were 4 years ahead of me in school. (How's by old buddy doing?)

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Quoting Dakster:


Fruedian slip?


I always wondered about Freud!!!!!!
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Quoting drs2008:
As a physician, I make a habit to not offer a medical opinion or recommendation. on W U.jmo

Indeed, hence my proviso that my training and five bucks was worth a cup of coffee at Starbucks.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16096
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just ordered two set of radar data from 2011 Super Outbreak on April 27, 2011 from Columbus AFB, MS site and Birmingham, AL site. Should be interesting to view on GR2A...

You might be disappointed in the Birmingham radar. I was watching it live that day and there were a number of glitches due to the recent dual pol upgrade. The Birmingham site (actually south of Birmingham) is also shielded by a range of hills from where most of the worst tornadoes occured. Combined with a persistent ground clutter problem, I think you'll find the Columbus site will give you the best picture of that day. I'll be interested to hear what you think, viewing it on GR2A though.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16096
Quoting sar2401:

I'm happy to read you're seeing a doctor. It sounds like you've gained some good insights into your disorder. My degree is in psychology. That and five bucks buys me a cup of coffee at Starbucks. :-) I did do a fair bit of counseling before I decided that psycholgy was not my life's dream career, and I specialized in obsessive-compulsive disorder. The one thing I'd encourage you to think about is the idea that your disorder results in morally repulsive thoughts. If you were planning on wiping out a shopping mall, I would probably agree, but it seems like your thoughts are sometimes socially unacceptable rather than morally repulsive. As you say, we all have different people living inside of us, and you understand the need to control some of the impulses you feel, as well as make a sincere apology when you slip. That shows a pretty high moral standard. I no longer practice but I do try to keep up with new things in the field. There are some new meds that are coming online in the next couple of years that show great promise in treating people with OCD. I hope they will be of help to you, and that you continue to make progress. You sound like a decent guy, so try not forget that.
As a physician, I make a habit to not offer a medical opinion or recommendation. on W U.jmo
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Quoting Grothar:



After I reread this, I honestly didn't mean 98 years ago. I meant it hit 98, many years ago. I wasn't trying to be funny this time.


Yet, that is the most I have laughed in a bit - only because we took it in stride with your usual self ;) LOL
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Quoting sar2401:

I can't imagine how terrible a dewpoint of 80 would feel in Death Valley. I had a buddy who was the resident CHP officer in the Valley back in the mid-70's. I did several ride-alongs with him, including one in August. He and the park ranger traded off reading the instruments and sending a teletype to the NWS with four readings a day, 0600, 1200, 1800, and 2330.

The first day I was there in August, we had a high of 124. As I remember, the dewpoint at 1200 was 9 degrees. The office was kept bearable by evaporative coolers, and the dewpoint was low enough so the pads would sometimes ice up. We had to wear gloves at all times when we were out, since touching anything metal resulted in second degree burns otherwise. When the monsoons came in, the temperature would "drop" into the 105-110 range, but the dewpoint would go up in the 20's and low 30's. He said it was the hottest he'd ever been in his life, and he'd much rather have 125 with a dewpoint of 10. He and his family stayed at that post for over five years. I have no idea why, but he said he liked the fact that there wasn't a supervisor within 250 miles. :-)


Since now in the summer I can barely touch the steering wheel of my car in the afternoon, I can only IMAGINE how hot that must have been.

Being isolated has its postiives and negatives...
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Quoting daddyjames:


Hey Gro - that was in 2009. And once before in 1944. I knw, to you it only seems like yesterday . . . My how time flies :D


Well, I had to edit my comment, I honestly didn't mean it they way it originally read.. But I do remember the hurricane in 1948 in Fort Lauderdale.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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