Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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invest 94E will go up to 90% at 2am
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1057. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


My wife is in the same boat as you are for the same reason. Things have a way of working out, generally for the better. Control the things you can control and don't worry about the things you can't.

The good news - is that you are walking and talking and will recover. The car can (and will at one point) be replaced.

Another very wise man once taught me that any day the groundhogs aren't delivering your mail is a good day. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
sar2401, I just went through radar images from April 27 outbreak... Birmingham was better to view many tornadoes than Columbus radar site IMO.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8032
Quoting Civicane49:


I believe it will. Both of the systems would get close enough to perform a binary interaction (Fujiwhara effect) in the next few days. Since 94E will possess a stronger, larger circulation than 95E, it should drag the weaker system and absorb it.



its all most like 94E is looking for some in too eat and if 95E dos not run out of the way 94E will eat it up and say yum yum 95E was good too eat
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
1054. Dakster
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have both my skins on. and now It hasn't warmed up. 55°F right now.


What is typically your coldest temp. of the year?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10538
Quoting sar2401:

Good morning/evening, Aussie. Has it warmed up a bit, or are you still looking for your skins? :-)

I have both my skins on. and no It hasn't warmed up. 55F right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1052. Dakster
Quoting KoritheMan:


I've learned that worrying in general doesn't change anything. I'm fresh out of a car accident and without a car, and I'm remaining surprisingly relaxed. Life is too short to worry about stuff that's not even going to matter five years from now, and in the vast majority of cases, not even a year.


My wife is in the same boat as you are for the same reason. Things have a way of working out, generally for the better. Control the things you can control and don't worry about the things you can't.

The good news - is that you are walking and talking and will recover. The car can (and will at one point) be replaced.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10538
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's a wave. We get about 60 or 70 of them each year, and less than half these features develop into tropical cyclones; most just spread increased rainfall across the tropics.


I thought it was 80-90 :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Worry and stress do nothing but cloud one's objective, rational judgment. Ironically, that's pretty much the least conducive way to escape from a bad situation.

They're also really bad for your health.

Not going to pretend it's as easy as all that, but a little effort here and there works wonders.

EDIT: Yeah, thankfully I'm healthy. On leave until the 28th, but other than that, just some minor shoulder pain that appears to be slowly going away with time.


What's the story Kori?

I'm glad to hear you're feeling healthier. Hopefullly the stress will fade for good reason too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1049. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:
Afternoon all. I've had 40mm in the last 24hrs. Much needed rain.

24hr Sydney rainfall map.


I just missed out on the 50-100mm area and glad i wasn't in the 100-250mm area in red.

Good morning/evening, Aussie. Has it warmed up a bit, or are you still looking for your skins? :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Eastern Pacific is really awakening tonight.



Wow that is respectable. Hope everything is ok health-wise with you. I agree though, worrying won't do anything good...



Worry and stress do nothing but cloud one's objective, rational judgment. Ironically, that's pretty much the least conducive way to escape from a bad situation.

They're also really bad for your health.

Not going to pretend it's as easy as all that, but a little effort here and there works wonders.

EDIT: Yeah, thankfully I'm healthy. On leave until the 28th, but other than that, just some minor shoulder pain that appears to be slowly going away with time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


I believe it will. Both of the systems would get close enough to perform a binary interaction (Fujiwhara effect) in the next few days. Since 94E will possess a stronger, larger circulation than 95E, it should drag the weaker system and absorb it.


It will be very interesting to watch that process unfold.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Super Moon from my home... sky got clear finally from earlier storms.



I find it funny this "supermoon" when it's only slightly larger than the normal moon. Nice photo by the way. I ain't got no chance of taking a photo of it down here.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is nearly stationary at this time. Do you think it will absorb 95E?


I believe it will. Both of the systems would get close enough to perform a binary interaction (Fujiwhara effect) in the next few days. Since 94E will possess a stronger, larger circulation than 95E, it should drag the weaker system and absorb it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1044. sar2401
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

How does a computer model determine the strength of a tropical wave rolling off of Africa at 384 hours out? The wave doesn't even exist yet!

In reality, any model trying to forecast anything 16 days off is sketchy at best. What the GFS is good at is looking for weaknesses in high pressure systems, combined with a likely drop off in shear and an increase in instability, to try to determine where a low might form. Almost all of these necessary conditions haven't occurred yet, so the GFS has to make some best guesses. If it's really working well, it will have a better than chance record of predicting that a low will form within a few hundred miles of what's shown on the model output. The chance that it correctly predicts intensity is rather less than flipping a coin. Looking at a model 16 days out gives you a place to watch and see if conditions turn ripe for a low to develop. Other than that, I tend to ignore anything else the GFS says about the characteristics of the possible low.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Super Moon from my home... sky got clear finally from earlier storms.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8032
Quoting sar2401:

All quite true. I got interested in weather as a nine year old when a tornado came down our street. All the homes on the other side of the street were destroyed, while the homes on our side of the street lost some shingles and a few windows. I was home at the time and watched it happen. It was exciting but, at the same time, disturbing, to see my friend's houses wrecked. Nature is all poweful and she does what she wants to do, not what we wish or want. I was no more responsible for my friend's losing their house than I was for the tornado to begin with.

You are also right that places like this blog help replace anxiety with knowledge. Over a lot of years, and a lot of worrying, I've learned that all that worrying never changed the outcome of events, except for tiny things in my control, like did I have enough batteries for the flashlight. I neither love nor hate storms. They simply exist, and learning about them helps me do what I can to prepare. Beyond that, my fate is the hands of a higher power than me. One of the the things that helped me was when a very wise man, a long time ago, asked me exactly what my number one worry was exactly a year ago on this day. Of course, I had no idea, since I couldn't remember. Obviously, if I couldn't remember what I was most worried about, worrying didn't do me much good. As I head into the winter of my life, I do everything I can to live for today, since I finally realize that tomorrow may never arrive. It took me a long time to figure this out. I hope you're smarter than I was at your age. :-)


I've learned that worrying in general doesn't change anything. I'm fresh out of a car accident and without a car, and I'm remaining surprisingly relaxed. Life is too short to worry about stuff that's not even going to matter five years from now, and in the vast majority of cases, not even a year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1039. JLPR2
Quoting nigel20:

Hey JLPR!
We measured 1380mm of rain between Saturday and Sunday of last week in central Jamaica (Manchester) from a manual rain gauge. The rain was from TS Barry. We didn't have any flooding or landlines due to the geology of the parish...Manchester is made up of 90% white limestone.

The parish was given the name due to it's weather pattern. The weather is very similar to Manchester, England...it can get very wet in the summer months and very cool (10°C) in the winter.


1,380mm? O.o Wow, if that happened here I would just float away.
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Wrote a new blog:

Invests 94E and 95E likely to become cyclones; Atlantic may get active in July

Note: I worked from 6am to 5pm and came home to spend three hours on a blog I really didn't want to write (but forced myself to write anyways), so it may not be as concise as others. It'll suffice though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
A microwave pass just before 0z suggests that 95E has an extremely healthy circulation. This was taken on the 85 GHz channel, which is more sensitive to the mid-levels than the lower tropospheric altitudes, but based on the satellite signature, I think we can safely extrapolate a lot of this down to the surface:



Too bad it's devoid of convection.
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Afternoon all. I've had 40mm in the last 24hrs. Much needed rain.

24hr Sydney rainfall map.


I just missed out on the 50-100mm area and glad i wasn't in the 100-250mm area in red.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1035. sar2401
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Thunderstorms moved through St. Petersburg today. Nice typical summer weather.




Wow you nailed it! That's what the Doc said! Weather and hurricanes are one of my preoccupations, as well as experiencing very strong straight line winds. Classical guilt versus thrill in a major storm phenomenon.
Having lurked on this for several years I've seen many members mention the idea of thrill of a major hurricane versus guilt. It is an interesting juxtaposition of 2 emotions. Of course a person who loses their home to a hurricane will not have this issue. For them it would be sadness. I confess that if I were in the situation of losing my home entirely, I would likely hate hurricanes and hate tropical weather with a passion.

What got me into hurricanes was Hurricane Charley, which was forecast to strike Tampa but spared Tampa Bay (I live in St. Petersburg). I always wonder, what if Charley had struck Tampa Bay? Would I ever have gotten interested in tropical weather? Or would I hate hurricanes? Or would I try to do everything possible to avoid reminders of tropical weather, such as this blog. It is amazing how living 60 miles away from the path of the storm (Charley) can make such a huge potential difference in the outcome of one's interests and decisions to further pursue or avoid any reminder of tropical weather.

After Tampa Bay dodged a bullet with Charley, I became consumed with tropical weather. I tracked every single invest and cyclone. I tracked Frances, Jeanne, and Ivan closely. I had a lot of time on my hands since I was a teenager at that time. When Frances and Jeanne came through I wondered, what would Charley have been like? I started to watch the palm trees every time we had a thunderstorm, not just a cyclone. I started writing down data tables for all the wind speeds in thunderstorms, cold front events, squall line events, and cyclone events. People around me, including my classmates in high school, thought I was crazy for doing this (not that I blame them lol). Then I watched videos from Charley and Frances and compared the movement of the trees at different speeds. I have no idea why the movement of the trees is so exciting, but it is.

But of course, such excitement must be tempered by a knowledge and awareness of the consequences of high winds, as well as an awareness of the fact that people who live in hurricane alley are not usually there by choice.

Now the idea of certainty...the issue with the tropics is the the path of a storm is never certain...a few hundred miles of difference with Charley and I might have hated storms forever...Weather is naturally probability based to an extent based on high pressure, troughs, and a million other factors. It really is like one giant gambling machine except with your life and property. That's where the anxiety comes in...what if I lose? What if I lose everything? O

Another member provided an interesting perspective when he stated that blogs like this give us a sense of power over otherwise feared hurricanes, in that we could see, predict, and prepare in advance. So it is as if the predictive power is neutralizing the anxiety provoked by the fear of a hurricane and the corresponding what ifs...what if it hits me...what if I lose my property...etc.

All quite true. I got interested in weather as a nine year old when a tornado came down our street. All the homes on the other side of the street were destroyed, while the homes on our side of the street lost some shingles and a few windows. I was home at the time and watched it happen. It was exciting but, at the same time, disturbing, to see my friend's houses wrecked. Nature is all poweful and she does what she wants to do, not what we wish or want. I was no more responsible for my friend's losing their house than I was for the tornado to begin with.

You are also right that places like this blog help replace anxiety with knowledge. Over a lot of years, and a lot of worrying, I've learned that all that worrying never changed the outcome of events, except for tiny things in my control, like did I have enough batteries for the flashlight. I neither love nor hate storms. They simply exist, and learning about them helps me do what I can to prepare. Beyond that, my fate is the hands of a higher power than me. One of the the things that helped me was when a very wise man, a long time ago, asked me exactly what my number one worry was exactly a year ago on this day. Of course, I had no idea, since I couldn't remember. Obviously, if I couldn't remember what I was most worried about, worrying didn't do me much good. As I head into the winter of my life, I do everything I can to live for today, since I finally realize that tomorrow may never arrive. It took me a long time to figure this out. I hope you're smarter than I was at your age. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Quoting Civicane49:


94E is on the verge of becoming a tropical cyclone. Thunderstorm activity is finally increasing over the low-level center. The system also established a prominent curved band in the southern semicircle. If current trends continue, 94E will become a tropical depression/storm in the next 6 - 12 hours.



Is nearly stationary at this time. Do you think it will absorb 95E?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1033. nigel20
Quoting KoritheMan:


I doubt it's going to make the jump straight to a tropical storm in six hours. That convective burst will take at least 12-18 hours to bring those kind of winds down to the surface.

Yeah, maybe..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1032. nigel20
Quoting pottery:

Greetings, Nigel.
How's yer weather ?

Hey pottery! It's been pretty dry after having very wet weather last weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's a wave. We get about 60 or 70 of them each year, and less than half these features develop into tropical cyclones; most just spread increased rainfall across the tropics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1030. nigel20
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Night Peeps, or Morning or Afternoon, Stay Safe All.....

Same to you, Pedley!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1029. pottery
Quoting KoritheMan:


The GFS has hinted at western Caribbean development more than once from this wave. I'm not disputing its future chances, but right now it's not going to do anything.

Agreed.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24460
1028. nigel20
Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm officially annoyed by my local weather, since the second week of May there hasn't been a full week of sunny weather, there's always rain here or there. Seriously, enough! :|

Now tomorrow the rain chances went from 30% to 60%. God, why!? I would e glad to send all the rainy weather to Cariboy for the next three weeks.

June so far...
To date: 7.07 inches
Normal to date 3.09 inches
Normal month total 4.41 inches

Rant over*
That felt good.

Hey JLPR!
We measured 1380mm of rain between Saturday and Sunday of last week in central Jamaica (Manchester) from a manual rain gauge. The rain was from TS Barry. We didn't have any flooding or landlines due to the geology of the parish...Manchester is made up of 90% white limestone.

The parish was given the name due to it's weather pattern. The weather is very similar to Manchester, England...it can get very wet in the summer months and very cool (10°C) in the winter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
If 94E continues to look like this in the next 6 hours,it will be a TD.



94E is on the verge of becoming a tropical cyclone. Thunderstorm activity is finally increasing over the low-level center. The system also established a prominent curved band in the southern semicircle. If current trends continue, 94E will become a tropical depression/storm in the next 6 - 12 hours.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:


Only if it were to find a "niche" after going through the shear once it gets into the Western Caribbean. If a niche does not exist then development most likely will not occur. Wait and see as usual


The GFS has hinted at western Caribbean development more than once from this wave. I'm not disputing its future chances, but right now it's not going to do anything.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

Good evening friends!

Yeah, maybe even a TS.


I doubt it's going to make the jump straight to a tropical storm in six hours. That convective burst will take at least 12-18 hours to bring those kind of winds down to the surface.
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1023. pottery
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Looks good to me,invest maybe.Yep,maybe Chantal may be forming out of this.

Down the road a ways, maybe.
Will be interesting to see what the stations in the Guyana's have to say, as it passes through there. Re wind directions, pressure etc.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24460
Can the central Atlantic tropical wave develop in an environment characterized by westerly shear?

Link

Run the loop for yourself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1021. sar2401
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Night Peeps, or Morning or Afternoon, Stay Safe All.....

GN, Pedley, enjoy the cool California night air. Still 76 degrees here...
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
1020. pottery
Quoting nigel20:

Good evening friends!

Yeah, maybe even a TS.

Greetings, Nigel.
How's yer weather ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24460
Quoting Skyepony:

This looks like a valid pass. It was off again the other day but looks all good now.

ASCAT just caught it, this pass is about three hours newer than the WINDSAT.
Looks good to me,invest maybe.
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I was looking at that one earlier too.
Looks like rain coming........
Yep,maybe Chantal may be forming out of this.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
1018. nigel20
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
If 94E continues to look like this in the next 6 hours,it will be a TD.


Good evening friends!

Yeah, maybe even a TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1017. sar2401
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Question for anyone willing to answer. How common if at all is it for a cyclone to hit Thailand? Is July out of the question or possible? I see there is a system near Vietnam currently. I am going to be on the coast for all of July and do not want to be surprised by something.

Typhoons in Thailand are very uncommon. There have been something like six in that last 75 years, all remnants of typhoons hitting Vietnam. Typhoon Ketsana in 2009 was unusual in that it actually made landfall in Thailand rather than Vietnam or the Phillipines. The most rainfall occurs in September and October, but it's basically hot and rainy year round in south and central Thailand.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Good Night Peeps, or Morning or Afternoon, Stay Safe All.....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5955
1014. pottery
Quoting stormpetrol:


I will post this Windsat as according to the Mod when they do post it, it is working. Looks like circulation forming.

Should run into the Spanish Main, but will undoubtedly bring rain.
Strange to see the hint of rotation at the equator, too.

edited
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24460
1013. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting stormpetrol:


I will post this Windsat as according to the Mod when they do post it, it is working. Looks like circulation forming.

This looks like a valid pass. It was off again the other day but looks all good now.

ASCAT just caught it, this pass is about three hours newer than the WINDSAT.
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@ TBSChaser...

One thing you may think about is how to channel your desire to see a storm strike into a positive outcome for you and maybe even others. For example, the tornado chasers who got caught off-guard last month had to have been motivated at some level by the thrill of getting that near to a tornado. However, they used their interest as a way of increasing the scientific community's understanding of how tornadoes work, and they took many precautions to enable themselves to continue their work for as long as possible. There's a guy who got some fantastic footage of Katrina coming ashore with that massive storm surge. Observations like his can contribute to our understanding of surge mechanics and lead to improved response. The point is you can take steps to "use your powers for good", so to speak. But you sound like you are already taking some steps.

The other thing is something that we get reminded about on here all the time. Wishcasting a storm won't make it come to Tampa or go elsewhere. The storm goes where it wills [or more accurately where the steering pattern wills]. Thus in one sense feeling guilty about a storm landfall is like feeling guilty because the sun rose in the east this morning.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
If 94E continues to look like this in the next 6 hours,it will be a TD.



yep..conditions look quite favorable for development.
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1010. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
Nice little feature in the mid-Atlantic.



Yeah, I was looking at that one earlier too.
Looks like rain coming........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24460
1009. JLPR2
Well I'm officially annoyed by my local weather, since the second week of May there hasn't been a full week of sunny weather, there's always rain here or there. Seriously, enough! :|

Now tomorrow the rain chances went from 30% to 60%. God, why!? I would e glad to send all the rainy weather to Cariboy for the next three weeks.

June so far...
To date: 7.07 inches
Normal to date 3.09 inches
Normal month total 4.41 inches

Rant over*
That felt good.
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1008. FOREX
Quoting SLU:
The ASCAT missed it as usual but northerly winds can be seen ahead of the wave axis indicating that a circulation may be forming.



which wave or disturbance is this?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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