Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

94E is like a WPAC system that takes it's time to develop due to monsoon origin but once it develops it can intensify at a steady to rapid rate.
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Quoting Civicane49:
Beautiful system.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Hm, look at that, got a little low around the Yucatan heading into the BoC, identical to Barry. So, CMC says Barry round 2. Said we may have to watch out for that with the wave around 40W. Will it actually happen? Probably not but still plenty of time and uncertainty.

CMC also splits that same wave, develops the northern part around the Bahamas and takes it out to sea, as you mentioned. Doubtful this will happen though.

Reminds me of 2005 the same happen with Franklin and Gert.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
End of the run takes the other storm out to sea caught by the trough. Showing something trying to wind up about where the GFS has things. Might get busy soon somewhere.

Hm, look at that, got a little low around the Yucatan heading into the BoC, identical to Barry. So, CMC says Barry round 2. Said we may have to watch out for that with the wave around 40W. Will it actually happen? Probably not but still plenty of time and uncertainty.

CMC also splits that same wave, develops the northern part around the Bahamas and takes it out to sea, as you mentioned. Doubtful this will happen though.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting wxchaser97:
This is blog 1 out of 2 for the night that I'm doing, feel free to check it out.


Yeah I'm actually going to bed, I'll finish the other one in the morning when I can actually think.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Anticyclone over 94E is allowing shear to decrease over the system:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
This is blog 1 out of 2 for the night that I'm doing, feel free to check it out.

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No change for 95E either:

EP, 95, 2013062306, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1147W, 25, 1008, LO,
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
No renumber yet for 94E from 06z ATCF update:

EP, 94, 2013062306, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1029W, 30, 1006, LO,
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
94E is lookin good. Should become a tropical cyclone by tomorrow.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
End of the run takes the other storm out to sea caught by the trough. Showing something trying to wind up about where the GFS has things. Might get busy soon somewhere.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I work at Walmart too as cashier. What do you work as?


Dairy associate.
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Quoting Civicane49:
94E up to near 100%. 95E remains at 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES LITTLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
Td 3E is coming.
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New burst of convection southwest of 95E's center:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just so everyone knows, I didn't lose my job at Walmart; I go back on the 28th. However, my cousin works at a chemical plant across the river, and he said they're hiring for a spot now, the same position he's in. For comparison, he makes $16/hr. There aren't a lot of jobs where you can make that kind of money right off the bat.

It's a longshot, but it's by far the best option I've got. I'd probably have to live with him a bit until I get back on my feet due to lack of transportation, but he lives there by himself, so I don't think he would mind.
I work at Walmart too as cashier. What do you work as?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just so everyone knows, I didn't lose my job at Walmart; I go back on the 28th. However, my cousin works at a chemical plant across the river, and he said they're hiring for a spot now, the same position he's in. For comparison, he makes $16/hr. There aren't a lot of jobs where you can make that kind of money right off the bat.

It's a longshot, but it's by far the best option I've got. I'd probably have to live with him a bit until I get back on my feet due to lack of transportation, but he lives there by himself, so I don't think he would mind.


Cool. May the force be with you. ;)
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Just so everyone knows, I didn't lose my job at Walmart; I go back on the 28th. However, my cousin works at a chemical plant across the river, and he said they're hiring for a spot now, the same position he's in. For comparison, he makes $16/hr. There aren't a lot of jobs where you can make that kind of money right off the bat.

It's a longshot, but it's by far the best option I've got. I'd probably have to live with him a bit until I get back on my feet due to lack of transportation, but he lives there by himself, so I don't think he would mind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES LITTLE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94E up to near 100%. 95E remains at 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES LITTLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Yes I know it's the cmc. But not much else to look at now. :) seems to take the wave from the Atlantic through the Caribbean around the high to this point.

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Quoting KoritheMan:


I prefer "May the Force be with you", but thanks. ;)

Someone earlier today told me "May the cold front be with you" as a weather joke. Just stating what happened earlier to me because you said the original phrase.

Quoting Slamguitar:


Also, I'm a few degrees north of Detroit. More like 43.5°N. Not that surprising, but I'd consider a high of 65°F to be almost perfect anytime.

To be honest, I usually like it cold (0-25F) or hot (80-95F). That is when the more extreme weather happens here as well, just my preference.
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Quoting Dakster:


Good luck - sounds you you could use some at the moment.


I prefer "May the Force be with you", but thanks. ;)
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm officially annoyed by my local weather, since the second week of May there hasn't been a full week of sunny weather, there's always rain here or there. Seriously, enough! :|

Now tomorrow the rain chances went from 30% to 60%. God, why!? I would e glad to send all the rainy weather to Cariboy for the next three weeks.

June so far...
To date: 7.07 inches
Normal to date 3.09 inches
Normal month total 4.41 inches

Rant over*
That felt good.


Average month total for June there in PR is only 4.41?

I'm surprised, the average here at my spot in Central Florida is 7.2 for June.

I've already had over 12 for the month so far, no shortage of rain here now after terrible drought February through May.
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1081. Dakster
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey, Brian!

That job with my cousin is presumably still up for grabs. My aunt forgot to hand him my resume Friday, and the dude's mother doesn't work on weekends. My aunt talked about going over her house tomorrow to give the family some canned salsa, so she'll either get it tomorrow or Tuesday.

Sure hope I get it...


Good luck - sounds you you could use some at the moment.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10631
I'm going out now, going to go buy computer parts to build a pc for my cousin. Back soon. I'm glad there is underground parking, wouldn;t want to get these parts wet.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Sydney coordinates. 33°51′35.9″S 151°12′40″E
Detroit Michigan 42°19′53″N 83°02′45″W

Your closer to the North pole then I am to the South pole. Sorta explains why you get colder.


Also, I'm a few degrees north of Detroit. More like 43.5°N. Not that surprising, but I'd consider a high of 65°F to be almost perfect anytime.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


What's the story Kori?

I'm glad to hear you're feeling healthier. Hopefullly the stress will fade for good reason too.


Hey, Brian!

That job with my cousin is presumably still up for grabs. My aunt forgot to hand his mother my resume Friday (she works in the personnel office at Walmart), and she doesn't work on weekends. My aunt talked about going over her house tomorrow to give the family some canned salsa, so she'll either get it tomorrow or Tuesday.

Sure hope I get it...
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1076. Dakster
Quoting nigel20:
Have a good night and enjoy the rest of your weekend friends.


You too!
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10631
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Sounds like late spring in Michigan!


Sydney coordinates. 33°51′35.9″S 151°12′40″E
Detroit Michigan 42°19′53″N 83°02′45″W

Your closer to the North pole then I am to the South pole. Sorta explains why you get colder.
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Just released.... Not good news for me.

Sunday Weather Update
23 June 2013, 14:30PM AET
The Bureau of Meteorology have updated their weather warnings page with new information on the expected severe weather forecast.

The updated severe weather warning is for damaging winds, heavy rain, abnormally high tides and damaging surf for people in the Sydney Metropolitan, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Illawarra, South Coast, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands and Snowy Mountains forecast districts.

At the moment a trough is sitting along the NSW coast. This is expected to deepen today and produce localised heavy rain from the southern Mid North Coast to Narooma, particularly along the coastal fringe. A low is expected to develop off the north coast tonight and deepen and move towards the central part of the coast during Monday, most likely crossing the coast around Sydney or the Central Coast. This is expected to bring further heavy rainfall is on Monday. Gale force winds and large seas are also expected to develop during Monday. The most severe weather is expected to be to the south of the low centre, at this stage the coast and ranges between The Entrance and Narooma is likely to be worst affected.

In addition, damaging winds around 65 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast to develop for the Metropolitan and Illawarra forecast districts and parts of the Hunter forecast district during Monday.

This east coast low will coincide with a predicted king tide, which could result in abnormally high tides which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas and very heavy surf which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion are forecast for parts of the Metropolitan, Illawarra and Hunter forecast districts late Monday. Beach conditions in these areas could be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.

Localised heavy rain and thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding are forecast for the Metropolitan, Illawarra, Hunter and South Coast forecast districts and southern parts of the Mid North Coast district today, extending to the Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands and Snowy Mountains forecast districts Monday.







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1072. nigel20
Have a good night and enjoy the rest of your weekend friends.
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Quoting Dakster:


What is your COLDEST day on record?

Just trying to see just how cold you should be prepared for. Not that 50's (or high 40s) don't require appropriate clothing. Just curious how you stack up against Miami.


June lowest record temp 33.4°F 25th June 1971
July lowest record temp 30.2°F 12th July 2002
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1069. Dakster
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Two storms of equal intensity typically orbit around each other during binary interaction.

A larger storm typically absorbs the smaller storm during binary interaction.

...but what happens when you have a large and weak storm but a small and strong tropical cyclone? (ex. A Leslie '12 and Michael '12 binary interaction)


Wouldn't one still have more kinetic energy than the other?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10631
Quoting AussieStorm:

average low temp this month is 47.1°F currently we +1.6°F above the average.

average high temp this month is 64.9°F and currently +0.9°F above the average.


Sounds like late spring in Michigan!
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Quoting sar2401:

No kidding. The view must be a lot better when you have better software than looking at it here or at the NWS site. I understand that Birmingham also went through the images and did a lot of digital cleanup as well, so maybe that improved things. Since most of down here gripe about BMX radar...a lot...it's good to hear it looks OK to an unbiased observer.
Yeah, Tuscaloosa storm was too far from Columbus site. It's way more detailed if you look at that storm from Birmingham site. Birmingham radar did well with couple other storms too, but Columbus radar was pretty good with NW Alabama storms (not surprising since it's closer to that site). I might have to bring up Huntsville/Hytop site to see NW Alabama storms better. All radars work well when it's 10 miles away to 100 miles. It get little funny farther away from 100 miles line no matter which site. However, Birmingham radar work very cleanly that day like any other radars. Which radar did you use that day?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
Quoting sar2401:

Amazing to how similar your averages are compared to winter where I used to live in northern California. How often (if ever) do you get snow? We had two days worth, with totals of less than an inch, in 30 years of living there. By comparison, this past winter is the winter in seven of living in Alabama where we didn't get snow, which is highly unusual for us. My neighbors, since I'm a yankee furiner, are sure I'm somehow to blame. :-)


We don't get snow here in Sydney but the blue mountains does get snow. Sometimes it snows all the way up the ranges into Southern Queensland. Last year southern Queensland had snow.
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1065. Dakster
Quoting AussieStorm:

average low temp this month is 47.1°F currently we +1.6°F above the average.

average high temp this month is 64.9°F and currently +0.9°F above the average.


What is your COLDEST day on record?

Just trying to see just how cold you should be prepared for. Not that 50's (or high 40s) don't require appropriate clothing. Just curious how you stack up against Miami.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10631
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Two storms of equal intensity typically orbit around each other during binary interaction.

A larger storm typically absorbs the smaller storm during binary interaction.

...but what happens when you have a large and weak storm but a small and strong tropical cyclone?
I think it depends on the outflow, whichever one is providing the strongest shear will prevail and weaken the other system.
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1063. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:

average low temp this month is 47.1F currently we 1.6F above the average.

average high temp this month is 64.9F and currently 0.9F above the average.

Amazing to how similar your averages are compared to winter where I used to live in northern California. How often (if ever) do you get snow? We had two days worth, with totals of less than an inch, in 30 years of living there. By comparison, this past winter is the winter in seven of living in Alabama where we didn't get snow, which is highly unusual for us. My neighbors, since I'm a yankee furiner, are sure I'm somehow to blame. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16976
Two storms of equal intensity typically orbit around each other during binary interaction.

A larger storm typically absorbs the smaller storm during binary interaction.

...but what happens when you have a large and weak storm but a small and strong tropical cyclone? (ex. A Leslie '12 and Michael '12 binary interaction)
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Quoting Skyepony:

This looks like a valid pass. It was off again the other day but looks all good now.

ASCAT just caught it, this pass is about three hours newer than the WINDSAT.
Really really wish the US could get its own scatterometer up soon... the one we saw the specs for just before / after QUIKScat quit looked pretty impressive, and I can't get used to these others, which IMO seem to miss 60% of the time and have frequent calibration problems....
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1060. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
sar2401, I just went through radar images from April 27 outbreak... Birmingham was better to view many tornadoes than Columbus radar site IMO.

No kidding. The view must be a lot better when you have better software than looking at it here or at the NWS site. I understand that Birmingham also went through the images and did a lot of digital cleanup as well, so maybe that improved things. Since most of down here gripe about BMX radar...a lot...it's good to hear it looks OK to an unbiased observer.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16976
Quoting Dakster:


What is typically your coldest temp. of the year?

average low temp this month is 47.1°F currently we +1.6°F above the average.

average high temp this month is 64.9°F and currently +0.9°F above the average.
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invest 94E will go up to 90% at 2am
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100407

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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