Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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1158. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, probably a couple of times. ;-)



Geez, couldn't you say no and make me feel good.
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1157. hydrus
Hwrf wraps the to invests together into one..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20520
Not sure if this has already been posted:

Moore pre- and post-May20th tornado. Comparative map (slider type).

Check it out - LINK
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1155. Grothar


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Happy Sunday everyone

More evacuations happening in Alberta. Here's the latest news:


Link

Lindy

(fixed the link - sorry about that)
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1153. SLU
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4885
Quoting Grothar:


I never thought I would see a baked Alaska. (I hope that one hasn't been done before?)
Oh, probably a couple of times. ;-)
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1151. VR46L
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

looks like landfalling storms if anything forms out there


It really Does ... Got to hope the Trade winds and SAL keeps up or there really could be trouble .
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1150. LargoFl
Good morning...Our Rainy Season is here at last...........
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1149. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:
Alaska is set to be baking with an even more widespread heat wave this coming week than the one it experienced just last week. For now, Thursday appears as though it will be the hottest day, with much of the state's vast midsection well into the 80s and even 90s. Of special note is the normally very chilly North Slope, which is predicted to see several consecutive days in the 80s beginning on Thursday...

alaska


I never thought I would see a baked Alaska. (I hope that one hasn't been done before?)
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Quoting islander101010:
jb posted on his weekly clip yesterday two photos one was the early 1960s of a sub marine at the north pole then he posted the cam (supposingly) of yesterday quite interesting
That's because JB has difficulties comprehending all but the most basic of subjects, and he assumes his regular readers do, too. The thing is, a small summertime polynya near the North Pole isn't the same as hundreds of thousands of square kilometers of open Arctic waters due to a changing climate. JB may not realize that the Arctic hasn't been this free of ice in at least 8000 years (if not longer)--but actual scientists do.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
sar2401, I just went through radar images from April 27 outbreak... Birmingham was better to view many tornadoes than Columbus radar site IMO.

Columbus radar also has serious beam blockage issues at the lowest tilt, especially to the east, but there are a few bad azimuths to the west as well. We had to turn it off and do not typically use its data to help with our precipitation estimation because it would frequently contaminate the data.
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Quoting VR46L:


The High is growing everyday It is expectected To be this big in 2 days .. Sad to say no escape for anything Crossing the Atlantic


looks like landfalling storms if anything forms out there
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jb posted on his weekly clip yesterday two photos one was the early 1960s of a sub marine at the north pole then he posted the cam (supposingly) of yesterday quite interesting
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1144. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20520
Alaska is set to be baking with an even more widespread heat wave this coming week than the one it experienced just last week. For now, Thursday appears as though it will be the hottest day, with much of the state's vast midsection well into the 80s and even 90s. Of special note is the normally very chilly North Slope, which is predicted to see several consecutive days in the 80s beginning on Thursday...

alaska
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1142. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Yes your right there VRL..
Sometimes the enviroment is just waiting for a storm to moisten it up..
Something we have seen many times before..
I really see the Bermuda High as a big player this season pushing/diverting anything tropical in a Southerly direction and then creating a "around the horn" effect to the West into the Carribean /Leewards..
The SubTropical jet seems to be less of a player..







The High is growing everyday It is expectected To be this big in 2 days .. Sad to say no escape for anything Crossing the Atlantic

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1141. pcola57




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atlantic tropics not much to worry about today thankfully. whats wierd about the terrible indian floods is that because of the early monsoon they will be able to plant their crops earlier. as the result there shouldnot be as many people starving as yrs in the past. notice in the sat. pic.s how green is the country side. its kind of a tradeoff.
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morning guys
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1138. pcola57
I noticed that also dfwstormwatch..
This is the general synopsis that I see posted 8am..


000
AXNT20 KNHC 231037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N44W TO 11N41W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH ALONG 44W AND A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 36W-44W. ALSO OF NOTE...THE WAVE IS
LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF CLEARING EMBEDDED IN THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 41W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N54W TO 11N53W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A RELATIVE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 52W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 16N85W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW AT 700 MB AND IS
BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY
FRACTURING SATURDAY...NOW LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...THE REMAINING ENERGY IS
MOVING BENEATH UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH TO THE EQUATOR OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVERALL WITH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE PRIMPARILY S OF 10N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
09N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N20W TO 07N29W TO 08N41W THEN FROM 05N46W TO 06N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR 36N85W THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF 27N
BETWEEN 86W-92W THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY
SUSTAINING ITSELF DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MID-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
SW NORTH ATLC REGION WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
ASIDE FROM ANY SMALL VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NE GULF...
SYNOPTICALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS LARGELY INFLUENCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS DIPS WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 18N83W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AREA WITHIN THE TROUGH IS RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
N OF 15N BETWEEN 74W-88W. OTHERWISE...ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE TROUGHING...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND
IS PROVIDING FOR SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 76W...INCLUDING
INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING IS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10N...
INCLUDING COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
TOWARDS THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
REMAINS AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY N OF 14N BETWEEN 63W-74W...THAT STRETCH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND NEAR 21N75W
WITH PRIMARILY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCATED EAST OF
THE ISLAND OVER PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND FAR EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING DOMINANT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREATER ANTILLES WILL RESULT IN AN ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL
FAVOR BEING UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR
36N85W SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CONUS THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM
27N81W TO 31N78W CONTINUES TO MOVE NW TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND SE CONUS COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB
HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N29W AND A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N66W. A STABLE DRY
AIRMASS COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC INDICATED BY A LARGE
AREA OF SUSPENSED SAHARAN DUST THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA TO 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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1137. pottery
Quoting mikatnight:

Post 1107.
He looks a lot like Patrap, you know ?

heheheheh
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1136. SLU
Tremendous recovery by the SSTs. Look at how strong the tripole remains. This is going to be a huge factor come July with the strong MJO pulse.



Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4885
Anyone else notice the 8 AM EDT Atlantic Outlook still isnt out???
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1134. pcola57
Quoting VR46L:


It has started it migration North but its hard to get excited when all ya see is the orangey stuff waiting to choke it to death . but I guess sometimes it can act as a sealant rather than a destroyer ...



Yes your right there VRL..
Sometimes the enviroment is just waiting for a storm to moisten it up..
Something we have seen many times before..
I really see the Bermuda High as a big player this season pushing/diverting anything tropical in a Southerly direction and then creating a "around the horn" effect to the West into the Carribean /Leewards..
The SubTropical jet seems to be less of a player..





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1133. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:
2 KM Visible Satellite for Illinois



2 KM Radar Mosaic for Illinois



Yeah I noticed its to be pretty Nasty weather there today . Hope Nat (SouthernI) will be watching for any warnings but I know she loves the rain nearly as much as the Sun !
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Quoting pcola57:


Nice inviting pic this morning mik..
Good Morning.. :)


Back at ya PC!
I'll check in with y'all later. Gotta get busy cause
Sunday in FUNDAY!
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1131. pcola57
2 KM Visible Satellite for Illinois



2 KM Radar Mosaic for Illinois

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1129. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Yes thats the one..
I like to call those "cruisers" as they seem to go under the radar until bursting with convection..
We shall see..
The ITZ is gonna start getting pretty active soon..
Gulp.. :)


It has started it migration North but its hard to get excited when all ya see is the orangey stuff waiting to choke it to death . but I guess sometimes it can act as a sealant rather than a destroyer ...

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Are you prepared?



Hurricane Preparation 2013


Hurricane Protocol 2013
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1127. pcola57
Good Morning All..

2 KM Visible Satellite for Bahamas



2 KM Visible Satellite for Florida


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1126. ncstorm
and the last frame showing another storm about to emerge into the Bay Of Campeche

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morning,

Link WV Loop 94E

Wonder if any of the activity from 94E will break off and end up on the Caribbean or BOC.
Large system right now.
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1124. ncstorm
Enjoyed World War Z yesterday..interesting take on the environment..a little message in there about our environment..

00z CMC..first cape verde storm-misses the east coast

















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1123. pcola57
Quoting mikatnight:
Hello bloggers!
Time for the good (6:38am) morning pic...


From the dock on the N. Lake Drive vacant lot between Lantana Rd. & Ocean Ave.


Nice inviting pic this morning mik..
Good Morning.. :)
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Quoting mikatnight:
Have a great day DJ!
Scattered popcorn showers moving onshore...maybe we'll get lucky and get some precip. 14 days and counting with nothing to measure.
My side of the state is stealing all of the rain. That all adds up to 11.5" (at least a foot after today's tropical wave passes). The normal June rainfall for the Tampa Bay Area is 5.5"
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1121. pcola57
Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning Pcola ... Its not doing bad if its the one just East of South America


Flash Loop Embedded



Might be something to liven things up ...



Yes thats the one..
I like to call those "cruisers" as they seem to go under the radar until bursting with convection..
We shall see..
The ITZ is gonna start getting pretty active soon..
Gulp.. :)
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Have a great day DJ!
Scattered popcorn showers moving onshore...maybe we'll get lucky and get some precip. 14 days and counting with nothing to measure.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting mikatnight:
Hello bloggers!
Time for the good (6:38am) morning pic...


From the dock on the N. Lake Drive vacant lot between Lantana Rd. & Ocean Ave.


Beautiful pic!

Good morning everyone,

I see the NHC is doing "Rock, Paper, Scissors" to determine whether to call Invest 94E a TD, and the Fujiwara Foxtrot ain't gonna happen (rats!).

A beautiful, sunny day, here in OK. Warm. - pretty much the forecast until September (except replace warm with hot in a few weeks). Awful weather going on in the upper MidWest - rain, rain, GO AWAY!

Hope you and yours are doing well and enjoying early summer.

Just a drive-by this morning - catch you later in the evening.
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Atlantic high weakening in a few days. Might allow a storm to move north?
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i see lots of green here!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13648
Hello bloggers!
Time for the good (6:38am) morning pic...


From the dock on the N. Lake Drive vacant lot between Lantana Rd. & Ocean Ave.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT DRIFTS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
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1114. VR46L
Good Morning Pcola ... Its not doing bad if its the one just East of South America


Flash Loop Embedded



Might be something to liven things up ...

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NHC taking their time with the 5 AM outlook, wonder if we will see T.D 3-E or T.S Cosme this outlook?
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1112. pcola57
Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning Folks!!

I see the NHC are as good as Guaranteeing Cosme ..



I just want to repost this .... From last Monday



I think The CMC has been doing a pretty good job this season . Quite impressed with it considering its the model that takes the most Flack !


Good morning VRL..
I agree with you..
CMC does take alot of critizism..
I now believe with the upgrade last year, it is doing better than a many of the models..

One trueisim..

Better Data In=Better Data Out

Saw a healthy wave getting ready/leaving the African continent the other day..
Wonder how it's doing now?
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Morning, very strong wave in CATL. looks like a blustery day for the central windward islands on Tuesday. This is the second time for the month of June ,that there has been a wave of such amplitude. The first was 92L in the earlier part of the month. Is this an indication of what to expect in the MDR this year?.
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1110. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!!

I see the NHC are as good as Guaranteeing Cosme ..



I just want to repost this .... From last Monday



I think The CMC has been doing a pretty good job this season . Quite impressed with it considering its the model that takes the most Flack !
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The cloud structure of 94E is becoming more impressive with the well-defined outflow in the southern semicircle of the system and curved bands to the north of the center. Its surface circulation has likely improved over the past several hours. Conditions will remain very conducive, and 94E will likely become a tropical cyclone by later today.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

94E is like a WPAC system that takes it's time to develop due to monsoon origin but once it develops it can intensify at a steady to rapid rate.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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