Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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1208. barbamz
Man's folly compounded nature's wrath: National Disaster Management Authority on Uttarakhand
Sunday, Jun 23, 2013, 19:12 IST | Place: New Delhi | Agency: IANS

Calgary, Alberta floods: Threat moves south as city assesses damage
Published: June 23, 2013, 10:15 am
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1207. Xulonn
Quoting daddyjames:


A significant contributor to India's food problem is lack of infrastructure to adequately store the food long-term.

In India, Inadequate Storage Could Mean Wasted Food
Food worth Rs 50 thousand crore goes waste in India every year
India wastes 21 million tonnes of wheat every year: Report
There you go again, DaddyJames. Don't you know that everything in the world is black and white and there are no shades of gray? Please stop with the nuance and detail - it makes my over-simplified conclusions look bad! Next thing you know, you'll be quoting scientific evidence when everyone knows that opinions are more accurate.

/snark

[Edit] Even though I almost always try to look behind the obvious and stick to science, I sometimes take a quick look and jump to a conclusion - many of do that when we are in a hurry, but some people do it most of the time.)
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1206. Patrap
Published on Jun 21, 2013

Raw aerial footage showing the incredible flooding in Calgary's downtown core. For more info, please go to http://www.globalnews.ca

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
fearful of july and august storms because their odds of slicing out to sea are less.
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1204. Xulonn
Quoting ncstorm:
August Almanac prediction..remember now it got June right before you start bashing it..

August 2013
1st-3rd. Sultry, hot; high humidity makes it feel like it's 110 to 115 degrees.
4th-7th. Continued hot, then afternoon showers pop up.
8th-11th. Hazy sunshine and humid.
12th-15th. Threat of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico.
16th-19th. Fair skies.

******************************************
I'll let Dr. Masters do the bashing...
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
In the October 1981 issue of Weatherwise magazine, pages 212-215, John E. Walsh and David Allen performed a check on the accuracy of 60 monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation from the Old Farmer's Almanac at 32 stations in the U.S. They found that 50.7% of the monthly temperature forecasts and 51.9% of the precipitation forecasts verified with the correct sign. This compares with the 50% success rate expected by chance.

Dr. Masters' Conclusion:
The results of my forecast verifications and those done by several others indicate that there is little reason to believe the Old Farmer's Almanac claim of 80% accuracy...unless the Almanac posts some scientific evidence to the contrary, I won't believe their forecasts are any better than flipping a coin.
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1203. barbamz
Weekly news slide show at Climate Central:
From Rivers to Airports to Ice, Water Takes Center Stage
Published: June 22nd, 2013
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Met Office in the Media: 23 June 2013

There has been further coverage in the weekend papers following a workshop held here at the Met Office HQ in Exeter on a recent run of unusual seasons in the UK.

During the workshop new, early stage research by the University of Reading suggested that long-term Atlantic currents may be playing an important role in wet summers.

These are understood to operate on cycles of a decade or more, which suggests that we may see their influence on our summers for a few more years to come. While these influence the odds of a wet summer, it doesn’t rule out the possibility of decent summers over the next few years. Professor Rowan Sutton of the University of Reading has provided a guest blog which explains the research in more detail.

The Met Office has been at the forefront of global weather and climate science for 150 years through continued investment in our scientific expertise and supercomputing technology.

We use more than 10 million weather observations a day, an advanced atmospheric model and a high-performance supercomputer to create 3,000 tailored forecasts and briefings a day. These are delivered to a huge range of customers from the Government, to businesses, the general public, armed forces and other organisations.

Weather forecasting isn’t an exact science and we know that accuracy is the main driver of peoples trust in the Met Office. Recent surveys show that 83% of people trust the Met Office, 91% of the public said they found our forecasts useful and 76% said they were accurate.

We are an island nation with island weather and we forecast as accurately as we can without bias, regardless of what weather is expected. Our forecasts are right six days out of seven and we are consistently one of the top two operational weather forecasting services in the world. We can’t change the weather, but we like to help in any other way we can.

Unbiased Met Office forecasts and warnings help us prepare for and protect ourselves in times of severe weather and help us enjoy the good weather when it is here.

The Met Office has worked with the tourism industry in recent years to provide detailed forecasts for resorts, beaches and attractions with local forecasts for up to 5,000 locations across the UK. All our forecasts provide local three-hourly detail of the weather with information on the chance of rain so that visitors can plan their day out with confidence and make the most of the great British weather come rain or shine.

We have also made these forecasts easier to access for holiday makers and attraction owners. Our website widget, which attraction owners can embed on their websites, gives visitors instant access to the latest observations, forecasts and warnings, not just for today but for the next five days.

Our award winning free weather apps for Android and iPhone also give easy access to our forecasts and warnings, 24 hours a day anywhere in the UK.

At the time of launch of these local forecasts, Mark Smith, Director of Bournemouth Tourism said: “These new forecasts from the Met Office communicate weather forecast information in clearer, more appropriate and user friendly ways that allow tourists and tourism operators to better plan activities.”


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I remember 2007 Cosme... A 75 mph hurricane, it got near Hawaii as a weak storm.

Cosme...how do you pronounce that.

Bw...2007 was the very first full season I began to track, 6 years ago... tempus fugit.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1200. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


The tripole is also further south


... which will enhance the upward motion in the deep tropics.
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1199. Grothar
Quoting Xulonn:
You guys sure Taz didn't say it first?


When he comes on, I'm sure he will comment. We've been doing this routine to each for years.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
1198. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:


I know how you feel. When I lived in Norway, we couldn't wait for summer. We enjoyed both days. :)

Great song btw.


Ah Yes you can understand !Actually a little excited about it today,looking forward to a couple of weeks of summer after the cold wet 12 months we have just had .

And your welcome !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
1197. Grothar
Quoting kingcane:

Sorry Grothar, not sure what that means. Some one put LOL so I am not sure if your mocking the question or legitimately answering it. By the way how are you doing, you had some issues with year heart, everything good?


Yes. It is one of the longest running jokes on the blog. I wasn't mocking you though, but I couldn't let that one go by. Actually, here is a pretty good article for you to read. It doesn't give the exact number, but 1016mb should be strong enough to steer most systems. It depends on what height and level the pressures are.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
We got TD-3-E.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Better now?

EP, 03, 2013062312, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1037W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M,


Yay!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Grothar:




Yep, I see the next tc coming out of that.
Pretty large circulation
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1193. Xulonn
Quoting Neapolitan:
No. Never. You are definitely the first person to think of saying it. ;-)
You guys sure Taz didn't say it first?
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Better now?

invest_RENUMBER_ep942013_ep032013.ren

EP, 03, 2013062312, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1037W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M,
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1191. ncstorm
August Almanac prediction..remember now it got June right before you start bashing it..

August 2013
1st-3rd. Sultry, hot; high humidity makes it feel like it's 110 to 115 degrees.
4th-7th. Continued hot, then afternoon showers pop up.
8th-11th. Hazy sunshine and humid.
12th-15th. Threat of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico.
16th-19th. Fair skies.
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1190. Grothar
Quoting VR46L:


I know ... I am to get some summer LOL Once today goes by ... Summer should be with me ... worrying for the tropics but as far as I am concerned Beatles- Here Comes The Sun


I know how you feel. When I lived in Norway, we couldn't wait for summer. We enjoyed both days. :)

Great song btw.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
1189. VR46L
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

looks like this will be the worst year for the Caribbean


I hope not ! But the set up is Concerning Got hope those tradewinds and SAL stick around while that strong a high is in place
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
1188. ncstorm
The CFS model is showing some pretty good activity coming up in July..hold on to your hats.. and that even half the run..













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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
still no classification on the 12Z ATCF Update, the pressure has dropped to 1005 MB on Invest 94E however.


Hm. Thats odd

They don't keep a 100% chance for that long.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1186. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:


Hey V. It looks like you are right. This high doesn't want to seem to go away. This 192 hours out.




I know ... I am to get some summer LOL Once today goes by ... Summer should be with me ... worrying for the tropics but as far as I am concerned Beatles- Here Comes The Sun
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
1185. pottery
Quoting opal92nwf:

Great what location?

Trinidad, 11n 61w.
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Quoting barbamz:

Photo: Mark Tipple/Spiegel

German Spiegel has a stunning photo series from the australian photographer Mark Tipple, showing divers beneath breaking waves in the ocean. Sometimes you get the impression those people are flying beneath a heavy storm because the structures of the breaking waves resemble so much mammatus clouds. Enjoy!



barbmz - Thanks for sharing this! Beautiful set of photos.
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Quoting pottery:

Well, I'm expecting it to pass over me tomorrow, so I'll let you know how it goes....

Great what location?
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1181. pottery
Quoting opal92nwf:
Any chance that wave East of Venezuela could sliver on up into the Caribbean?

Well, I'm expecting it to pass over me tomorrow, so I'll let you know how it goes....
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Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Hey everyone

Oftentimes I find myself wandering through the blogs, checking out what various members have.

There is a blogger from Alberta but for the life of me I can't remember who it is. The only thing I remember is that his/her cam points out the window of the basement and there's a white car always shown.

Does this ring a bell for anyone? I'm just curious to find out how this person is doing with the flooding.

Lindy


Wow, talk about timing. I got the info. Someone JUST posted on his blog, "plapman".

-L

Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 622
still no classification on the 12Z ATCF Update, the pressure has dropped to 1005 MB on Invest 94E however.
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1178. pottery
Quoting barbamz:
Hello all abroad and not abroad. I hope everybody is enjoying a nice Sunday!

India floods: Unusual weather systems clash was trigger
By Navin Singh Khadka BBC environment reporter
BBC, 22 June 2013 Last updated at 19:25 GMT

From the content of this article:

"The westerly weather system should be here only between October and April, but - quite bizarrely - we are seeing it at this time of the year and all over the country: from the Himalayan mountains to the coastal zones."

Mr Chaudry said the cause was unknown, adding: "It is difficult for us to link this single phenomenon to climate change."

But he added: "When we look at the abrupt changes in the climate and weather patterns in our country during the last 10 to 15 years, it becomes easy to link this to the changes taking place around the globe."


We are always somewhere between ''intuition'' ( which is often correct in many ways, and is the result of our long history and evolutionary success of having to survive as a species) and our 'need' for often ponderous Scientific research and confirmation.

It will take some time yet, for us to have irrefutable 'proof' that severe weather and change is upon us, and what the reasons for this are.

In the meantime, intuitive people, observant people, can see the evidence pretty clearly.
And it is these people, generally speaking, that drive the Scientific research we are seeing.
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Quoting Grothar:


A storm could always pump the ridge.

Sorry Grothar, not sure what that means. Some one put LOL so I am not sure if your mocking the question or legitimately answering it. By the way how are you doing, you had some issues with year heart, everything good?
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Any chance that wave East of Venezuela could sliver on up into the Caribbean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1175. barbamz

Photo: Mark Tipple/Spiegel

German Spiegel has a stunning photo series from the australian photographer Mark Tipple, showing divers beneath breaking waves in the ocean. Sometimes you get the impression those people are flying beneath a heavy storm because the structures of the breaking waves resemble so much mammatus clouds. Enjoy!

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1174. pcola57
Quoting Grothar:


A storm could always pump the ridge.


LOL..Gro..
Thats just plain funny..
Mornin' BTW.. :)
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1173. Skyepony (Mod)
Flash Flood in Nepal on Sunday, 23 June, 2013 at 04:40 (04:40 AM) UTC.
Description
A total of 13 people have lost their lives and 14 have gone missing due to landslides and floods trigged by heavy rainfall in different parts of Nepal by Tuesday evening, police said. With the beginning of monsoon season, the country is receiving heavy rainfall for the last few days, causing landslides, floods and house collapse at different parts of the country. Nepal Police Spokesperson Keshav Adhikari told Xinhua that 13 people have been confirmed dead in Dailekh, Baitadi and Achham, the mid and far-west hill districts of Nepal. Seven members of a single family were killed after their houses collapsed on Monday night due to landslides at Malika VDC-2 in Dailekh district. Four people have been killed at Siddheshwor VDC of Baitadi district when a landslide swept their house the same night. Similarly, two people have been killed at Kuntibandali village of Achham when landslide hit their houses while they were sleeping. Meanwhile, fourteen people have been reported missing as they were washed away by the flood in Sannigad River in Kalikot district, the police said. Moreover, many houses along with two bridges over the river have also been washed away. The district headquarters of Darchula in the north west Nepal is in panic as swollen Mahakali River intruded into the small town Sunday night. The Mahakali river bordering India has swept away 50 houses and displaced 1,500 people, the police said. Similarly, 1,500 houses have been inundated in Bardiya District due to the floods in the Karnali River. Around 700 families have been displaced due to flood in Sonaha, Murgarwa of Daulatpur VDC in Rajpur Tappu of Bardiya district.
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Hey everyone

Oftentimes I find myself wandering through the blogs, checking out what various members have.

There is a blogger from Alberta but for the life of me I can't remember who it is. The only thing I remember is that his/her cam points out the window of the basement and there's a white car always shown.

Does this ring a bell for anyone? I'm just curious to find out how this person is doing with the flooding.

Lindy
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 622
Quoting Grothar:




Expecting explosive development with this disturbance. Thankfully it's no threat to land.
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1170. Grothar
Quoting kingcane:
Good morning everyone. Does anyone know what the pressure needs to be to prevent a storm from punching through a high(bermuda)? I thought I saw 1016 somewhere but just want to confirm. I am sure that whether the high is building or eroding also factors in as well. Enlighten me if you know the answer. I live in south florida so just curious if a storm does build a couple a weeks from now what would determine when it re-curves to the north.


A storm could always pump the ridge.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
1169. barbamz
Hello all abroad and not abroad. I hope everybody is enjoying a nice Sunday!

India floods: Unusual weather systems clash was trigger
By Navin Singh Khadka BBC environment reporter
BBC, 22 June 2013 Last updated at 19:25 GMT

From the content of this article:

"The westerly weather system should be here only between October and April, but - quite bizarrely - we are seeing it at this time of the year and all over the country: from the Himalayan mountains to the coastal zones."

Mr Chaudry said the cause was unknown, adding: "It is difficult for us to link this single phenomenon to climate change."

But he added: "When we look at the abrupt changes in the climate and weather patterns in our country during the last 10 to 15 years, it becomes easy to link this to the changes taking place around the globe."
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Good morning everyone. Does anyone know what the pressure needs to be to prevent a storm from punching through a high(bermuda)? I thought I saw 1016 somewhere but just want to confirm. I am sure that whether the high is building or eroding also factors in as well. Enlighten me if you know the answer. I live in south florida so just curious if a storm does build a couple a weeks from now what would determine when it re-curves to the north.
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Quoting SLU:
Tremendous recovery by the SSTs. Look at how strong the tripole remains. This is going to be a huge factor come July with the strong MJO pulse.





The tripole is also further south
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The video clip below contains both a political forecast, which arguably has partly come true in remarkable fashion, and a weather forecast which could stand alone, or tie in with the one I previously published here(Post 543 on May 29th) for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Note that the intent of the political portion is not to be personal in any way, but forms the basis for a much broader argument that branches out to other threads(Post 30.)

I was a fan, and may he RIP.

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Quoting islander101010:
atlantic tropics not much to worry about today thankfully. whats wierd about the terrible indian floods is that because of the early monsoon they will be able to plant their crops earlier. as the result there shouldnot be as many people starving as yrs in the past. notice in the sat. pic.s how green is the country side. its kind of a tradeoff.


A significant contributor to India's food problem is lack of infrastructure to adequately store the food long-term.

In India, Inadequate Storage Could Mean Wasted Food
Food worth Rs 50 thousand crore goes waste in India every year
India wastes 21 million tonnes of wheat every year: Report
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Quoting Grothar:
Geez, couldn't you say no and make me feel good.
Oh, my bad. Here's my mulligan:
Quoting Grothar:
I never thought I would see a baked Alaska. (I hope that one hasn't been done before?)
Oh, probably a couple of times.

No. Never. You are definitely the first person to think of saying it. ;-)
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1163. Ed22
Quoting Ed22:




Your Comment:



Rich TextI think theirs going to trouble further down in the week because theirs sign of the high pressure weaking and the SAL could dissipate further down the week, that tropical wave over eastern Atlantic need to be watch this week for possible development.



 



Submit Cancel




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1162. Grothar
Quoting VR46L:


It really Does ... Got to hope the Trade winds and SAL keeps up or there really could be trouble .


Hey V. It looks like you are right. This high doesn't want to seem to go away. This 192 hours out.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
1161. pottery
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

looks like this will be the worst year for the Caribbean

How so ?
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Quoting VR46L:


It really Does ... Got to hope the Trade winds and SAL keeps up or there really could be trouble .

looks like this will be the worst year for the Caribbean
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1159. Ed22
undefined
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1158. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, probably a couple of times. ;-)



Geez, couldn't you say no and make me feel good.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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