Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El NiƱo years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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1258. SLU
Quoting pottery:

Re. those forecasts..

I find it strange that the system shown in the tropical atlantic is forecast to take such a northerly route after the Carib Islands.
The high is still forecast to be strong, and I would have thought a more westerly track would have been probable.

I realise these are forecasts are a long way out and not particularly worthy of attention.
But can anyone explain ???


The CFS does a poor job at handling the tracks over such a long range. It's best to only look at the pattern it indicates and it shows an active July.
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Quoting Levi32:


The CFS has backed off ever so slightly on the strength of the El Nino, but it is still forecasting one, evident in July:

wow the El Nino is coming soon
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1256. txjac
sar, if you are in the west Houston area please wash you car ...it increases my changes of rain.

I'll be washing mine soon.
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Pretty cool, storm tracks tropical and non-tropical.

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1254. sar2401
Quoting Levi32:


I just did it in my latest video dealing with the forecast for the rest of the season. To me it's about common sense. Sometimes a long-range model forecast just doesn't make sense, so I feel safe in rejecting it. That doesn't mean I can't get burned, but sometimes a model needs to be taught a lesson by a forecaster lol.

Yes, I did notice you were standing over the models with a sledgehammer in that last video. :-) It's always amusing to see how people like you treat long range models compared to some other folks, who post a 384 hour model run and yell "Wow!!! Looks like Miami is going to be flattened!!!". As usual, when it's slow in the Atlantic, some people seem to feel the need to prognosticate out into the deep mists of time so there's something to get excited about. I'd be happy to get an accurate forecast if there's going to be rain at my house today, so I know if it's worth washing the car or not.
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1253. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting Levi32:


I just did it in my latest video dealing with the forecast for the rest of the season. To me it's about common sense. Sometimes a long-range forecast just doesn't make sense, so I feel safe in rejecting it. That doesn't mean I can't get burned, but sometimes a model needs to be taught a lesson by a forecaster lol.
I like the confidence, stick to your guns, you are a highly respectable blogger on here, and you have to go with what makes sense from a meteorological perspective.
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1251. Levi32
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Levi. The question is if this reverse translates also to the ENSO forecast.


The CFS has backed off ever so slightly on the strength of the El Nino, but it is still forecasting one, evident in July:

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1250. Levi32
Quoting sar2401:

LOL. Is "manhandle" a meteorological process, or do you just beat a model into submission? Clearly, one or both of those July forecasts will be wrong. How do you, as a forecaster, decide which model run to hang your hat on, and when?


I just did it in my latest video dealing with the forecast for the rest of the season. To me it's about common sense. Sometimes a long-range model forecast just doesn't make sense, so I feel safe in rejecting it. That doesn't mean I can't get burned, but sometimes a model needs to be taught a lesson by a forecaster lol.
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1248. sar2401
Quoting CaribBoy:


The SAL has increased a little... but thankfully it's not too strong.

Still looks like a nice view in St. Martin compared to staring out my back door and watching the kudzu take over the woods again. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16047
so far the GFS doesnt show much development in early july
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1246. pottery
Quoting sar2401:

Still and humid here in SE Alabama as well, with a temperature of 86 and a dewpoint of 73. 1016.8 mb pressure here also. We've been under a tropical flow regime for the last three weeks, and have had almost daily showers and thunderstorms. My lawn likes it, but it's definitely unusual. As long as we have the Bermuda high nosing in over us, it doesn't look like the pattern will change anytime soon. Maybe the GFS will be right about the high finally beginning to weaken and pull eastward.


Time will tell. As usual.

:):))
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1245. sar2401
Quoting Levi32:


They're useful to the forecaster. You just have to manhandle them and lead them to the right answer, not let them lead you :)

LOL. Is "manhandle" a meteorological process, or do you just beat a model into submission? Clearly, one or both of those July forecasts will be wrong. How do you, as a forecaster, decide which model run to hang your hat on, and when?
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1244. pottery
Quoting notanotherwrong:
although our local mets keep saying it will be a very active season again for florida, they have said that every year for the past 9 nine, and its not bad at all.... so i believe that all the talk about storms recurving away will happen agan this year

The problem is, that you cannot know that.
No one can.
And the danger is that people get blase' about the possibility of dangerous situations, and think ''everything will be fine again''.

It might very well be so.
Or it might very well be very different this year.
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Quoting Levi32:


They're useful to the forecaster. You just have to manhandle them and lead them to the right answer, not let them lead you :)


I was just thinking from post 1234, looks like Levi's got the models bending to his will!
How are you at steering hurricanes?
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1242. sar2401
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, thanks for that.

In the meantime, the wave approaching 60W is looking very wet.....
Should be here this evening.
Very still and humid here, pressure 1015 hPa steady.

Still and humid here in SE Alabama as well, with a temperature of 86 and a dewpoint of 73. 1016.8 mb pressure here also. We've been under a tropical flow regime for the last three weeks, and have had almost daily showers and thunderstorms. My lawn likes it, but it's definitely unusual. As long as we have the Bermuda high nosing in over us, it doesn't look like the pattern will change anytime soon. Maybe the GFS will be right about the high finally beginning to weaken and pull eastward.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16047
Quoting Levi32:
The CFS is undergoing a complete reversal for the July forecast, going from very high pressures in the Atlantic in its forecasts from early June (bottom) to low pressures in the Atlantic in today's forecast (top). Perhaps the model is finally seeing sense. I never bought the scenario on the bottom.



Hi Levi. The question is if this reverse translates also to the ENSO forecast.
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1238. Levi32
Quoting sar2401:

And the worst part is we won't know until about July 29 which one (if any) of these two predictions turns out to be right. I'm never really sure why we waste the computing power to run these long-term models, since they are not much better than chance at being right. Heck, I can get the Old Farmer's Almanac for five bucks if I want a bunch of chance forecasts. :-)


They're useful to the forecaster. You just have to manhandle them and lead them to the right answer, not let them lead you :)
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1237. sar2401
Quoting Levi32:
The CFS is undergoing a complete reversal for the July forecast, going from very high pressures in the Atlantic in its forecasts from early June (bottom) to low pressures in the Atlantic in today's forecast (top). Perhaps the model is finally seeing sense. I never bought the scenario on the bottom.


And the worst part is we won't know until about July 29 which one (if any) of these two predictions turns out to be right. I'm never really sure why we waste the computing power to run these long-term models, since they are not much better than chance at being right. Heck, I can get the Old Farmer's Almanac for five bucks if I want a bunch of chance forecasts. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16047
1236. pottery
Quoting sar2401:

Looking at the model runs, it seems the GFS feels like the Bermuda high will begin to become less elongated and weaken a bit a the western extreme. This would allow the low to ride along the weakness that's supposed to be there 7 or 8 days from now. However, it also appears that the GFS is not forecasting an exceptionally strong low, which should mean it will have more difficulty gaining latitude against even a weakening ridge. The GFS is good at sniffing out possible areas of low pressure, but it's not good at forecasting track this far out. Until we get closer and get some confirmation that a low actually develops, I tend to ignore track details.

Yeah, thanks for that.

In the meantime, the wave approaching 60W is looking very wet.....
Should be here this evening.
Very still and humid here, pressure 1015 hPa steady.
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1235. sar2401
Quoting pottery:

Re. those forecasts..

I find it strange that the system shown in the tropical atlantic is forecast to take such a northerly route after the Carib Islands.
The high is still forecast to be strong, and I would have thought a more westerly track would have been probable.

I realise these are forecasts are a long way out and not particularly worthy of attention.
But can anyone explain ???

Looking at the model runs, it seems the GFS feels like the Bermuda high will begin to become less elongated and weaken a bit a the western extreme. This would allow the low to ride along the weakness that's supposed to be there 7 or 8 days from now. However, it also appears that the GFS is not forecasting an exceptionally strong low, which should mean it will have more difficulty gaining latitude against even a weakening ridge. The GFS is good at sniffing out possible areas of low pressure, but it's not good at forecasting track this far out. Until we get closer and get some confirmation that a low actually develops, I tend to ignore track details.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16047
1234. Levi32
The CFS is undergoing a complete reversal for the July forecast, going from very high pressures in the Atlantic in its forecasts from early June (bottom) to low pressures in the Atlantic in today's forecast (top). Perhaps the model is finally seeing sense. I never bought the scenario on the bottom.

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The CFS forecast looks like it's going to bust. If an incredible warm-up doesn't start occurring in the Pacific soon, it's not going to happen in the time period the CFS is predicting it will.



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Quoting Patrap:


Gee that's a nice shirt he's got on there. Similar to your one Pat. LOL
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1231. pottery
Quoting ncstorm:
The CFS model is showing some pretty good activity coming up in July..hold on to your hats.. and that even half the run..














Re. those forecasts..

I find it strange that the system shown in the tropical atlantic is forecast to take such a northerly route after the Carib Islands.
The high is still forecast to be strong, and I would have thought a more westerly track would have been probable.

I realise these are forecasts are a long way out and not particularly worthy of attention.
But can anyone explain ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


The SAL has increased a little... but thankfully it's not too strong.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229
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1227. Patrap
Baked Alaska: Sunbathers take to the beach as Arctic state swelters in heatwave with temperatures close to 100F

Anchorage sees highest ever temperature for this time of year at 81F

Alaskans flock to lakes and beaches to take advantage of freak heatwave

By DAILY MAIL REPORTER
PUBLISHED: 02:51 EST, 19 June 2013 | UPDATED: 16:45 EST, 19 June 2013


Alaska may be better known for its glaciers and forests than for its beaches, but this week residents of the icy state have been soaking up the sun during a freak heatwave.
Anchorage, the state's biggest city, has seen record temperatures of 81F (27C), while other parts of Alaska are believed to have climbed as high as 98F.
However, while many are delighted by the unusual warmth, others are sweltering in homes and offices which lack air-conditioning and are not designed to tackle heat.

Residents have been sunbathing and swimming at lakes throughout the state, welcoming the heatwave which comes just a month after the last snows of the winter.
18-year-old Jordan Rollison, who joined hundreds relaxing on the shore of Goose Lake, commented: 'I love it - I've never seen a summer like this, ever.'

But others were less positive - Anchorage resident Lorraine Roehl said, 'It's almost unbearable to me. I don't like being hot.'
State officials took the unusual step of warning people that they should wear sunscreen if they go outside.


The 81F temperature officially recorded in Anchorage yesterday is the highest ever seen on that date, while other places saw even more extreme spikes.
The small town of Talkeetna near Mt McKinley saw an official peak of 96F, and a lodge nearby apparently measured 98F - equaling the highest temperature ever recorded in Alaska.

'This is the hottest heat wave in Alaska since 1969,' said meteorologist Jeff Masters. 'You're way, way from normal.'
The heat wave also comes after a few cooler summers - the last time it officially hit the 80 mark in Anchorage was 2009.

The wave has brought a bonanza for stores selling summer supplies - the True Value Hardware store had run out of fans, and was selling five times the usual amount of mosquito repellent.
'Those are two hot items, so to speak,' store owner Tim Craig joked.
However, the unusual heat is set to come to an end soon - a high pressure system responsible for clear skies and high temperatures has moved on, meaning forecasters expect a cooling trend starting from today.


AP Bonanza: Tim Craig with the last fan available for sale at the True Value Hardware store in Anchorage


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting SLU:




Anomalies are not very strong though.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229
Quoting AussieStorm:


Thanks TWPR.
Are they forecasting it to become a Hurricane?




why not read the forcast adf and you find that out on your own
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Do we have TD03 or Cosmo yet in the EPAC.
I've been to busy building this PC to check.


Thanks TWPR.
Are they forecasting it to become a Hurricane?
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1223. Patrap
RGB still image GOM,



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Thanks Barbamz! Here's one of them:
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Do we have TD03 or Cosmo yet in the EPAC.
I've been to busy building this PC to check.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH OF A CENTER TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SMALL
AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...WITH LARGE BANDING FEATURES TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30
KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES AND
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHER THAN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS TO THIS DEPRESSION
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER
WARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN
THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST 12-24 HR
WHILE IT HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL EXIT THE ITCZ BY TOMORROW AND
BE STEERED BY A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR 4-5
DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME
A SHALLOWER CYCLONE AND TAKE A WESTWARD TURN AS IT BECOMES STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR A FIRST ADVISORY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 11.8N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 12.2N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.2N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Do we have TD03 or Cosmo yet in the EPAC.
I've been to busy building this PC to check.
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Quoting Patrap:
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop


Click ZOOM then again on moving Loop to Zoom



Hadn't noticed the zoom control before. When did they start that? (please don't tell me 2 years ago. I'm known for my lack of observational skills).
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1218. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


.. and likely bring above average rainfalls in the MDR and Caribbean :-)


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1217. barbamz
Nice international photo gallery from last night's supermoon. Enjoy, I'm out for a while
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TD 3E is up in NHC site
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1214. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop


Click ZOOM then again on moving Loop to Zoom

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting Grothar:


I never thought I would see a baked Alaska. (I hope that one hasn't been done before?)


I shall direct you to my post from the good doc's blog (1 of 3 or 4 he posted that day) on June 19th:
21. mikatnight 5:30 PM GMT on June 19, 2013 +3
And I thought 'Baked Alaska' was a dessert! Master Doc has been busy today...
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2284

hrumph!
Me and Taz gotta keep this guy straight.
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Quoting SLU:


... which will enhance the upward motion in the deep tropics.


.. and likely bring above average rainfalls in the MDR and Caribbean :-)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
My side of the state is stealing all of the rain. That all adds up to 11.5" (at least a foot after today's tropical wave passes). The normal June rainfall for the Tampa Bay Area is 5.5"


Our side of the state was on a drought for a while so we need it!

BTW, I don't see any Tampa Bay area locations that have an average precip total as low as 5.5 for the month of June. Per TWC and NOAA, average precip for June is more in the 6.5 to 7.3 range.

The area averages are then 7 to 8 inches in July, 8 to 9 in August, 7 to 8 in September, then back down to around 3 in October.

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1210. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
1209. ycd0108
#1172, #1180:
Plapman is located in Portage La Prairie, Manitoba.
Though he may also have flooding issues there is also another province:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saskatchewan
between him and Alberta.
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1208. barbamz
Man's folly compounded nature's wrath: National Disaster Management Authority on Uttarakhand
Sunday, Jun 23, 2013, 19:12 IST | Place: New Delhi | Agency: IANS

Calgary, Alberta floods: Threat moves south as city assesses damage
Published: June 23, 2013, 10:15 am
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.