Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El NiƱo years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


Because a large number of storms still means a season was active, just in a different way. ACE is already sort of a normalized measure of Atlantic activity. If you get a year like 2012 with a huge number of storms, but all weak, the ACE will reflect that. If you get few storms but all strong and long-lived, the ACE will reflect that.

ACE per storm is a logical metric to use to gauge the type of storms that were seen in a given season, but it does not describe the overall level of activity. The ACE by itself is used for that purpose.


Another question, in comparing across basins - is there a "fudge factor" given that the longevity of storms in the Atlantic is "shortened" due to land interactions as opposed to the the other basins (like the EPAC)? Just curious . . .
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Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 110 Comments: 105723
Quoting Gearsts:


The tripole is also looking healthier these days, a few weeks ago it appeared to be breaking down.
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1405. SLU
Quoting sar2401:

I've often wondered the same thing. The best examples I can find are 1992 (7,4,1) with an ACE of 75, and 2007 (15,6,2) with an ACE of 72. Both years are classed as "Near Normal" on the ACE scale when neither one were near normal on any other scale. Obviously, one storm (Andrew) ramped up the entire year of 1992, while 2007 saw Dean and Felix, no slouches in the intensity department, yet scored a couple of points lower than 1992. Maybe someone a lot smarter than me can explain the value of non-normalized ACE scores.


Good point. I can't say much on it yet because I do not have the info regarding the ACE of each individual storm in those seasons but I think it has to do with the rapid forward speed of Dean and Felix. Even though they tracked across almost the entire Caribbean at very high intensities, they also moved very quickly thus reducing the number of major hurricane days and ACE they both contributed. Also, the rest of the storms in 2007 were lacklustre and those which reached hurricane strength apart from Dean and Felix remained at category 1 and didn't last too long. However, there were 2 other category 2 hurricanes in 1992 apart from Andrew.



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Quoting Levi32:


Because a large number of storms still means a season was active, just in a different way. ACE is already sort of a normalized measure of Atlantic activity. If you get a year like 2012 with a huge number of storms, but all weak, the ACE will reflect that. If you get few storms but all strong and long-lived, the ACE will reflect that.

ACE per storm is a logical metric to use to gauge the type of storms that were seen in a given season, but it does not describe the overall level of activity. The ACE by itself is used for that purpose.


So, if you wanted to look at varaitions in seasonal intensity of storms using ACE as a measure - it would be suitable to normalize the data by the number of storms.
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1403. Gearsts
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This was the CMC three days ago:



Here it is for nearly the same time now:



Better than the GFS...two moderate tropical storms...and ECMWF...one moderate tropical storm...at the time.


That thing is enormous. If that's what a strong MJO pulse can do in the EPAC, I'd hate to see what it could do in the WATL.
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1401. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, I'm at a hotel in Asheville today. Here for two day orientation at UNCA starting tomorrow. Will be here until Tuesday evening. Anyway, what's up with Pacific?

Well, TD 3E is still a TD, but it has enough clouds around it to qualify as its own country. Invest 95E is running away as fast as it can,before it gets swallowed by TD 3E. Other than that, not much.
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1400. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Classic healthy TD! And rather large!


Yes, I think TA alluded to the comparison of a Pacific typhoon in size earlier.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
This was the CMC three days ago:



Here it is for nearly the same time now:



Better than the GFS...two moderate tropical storms...and ECMWF...one moderate tropical storm...at the time.
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1398. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:
A general question

When discussing trends in ACE among the seasons as a sign of activity or intensity of storms, why is the total ACE not normalized (divided by the number of storms in the season)?

Would this not control for seasons that have high ACE due to a higher number of storms (2009:10,3,2) vs those that have a smaller number of storms but of higher intensity (1964: 12,6,6).

All I have seen are direct comparisons of ACE.

Edit: I guess those were not the best years to pick as examples :)

A better example would be 2011: 19,7,4


Because a large number of storms still means a season was active, just in a different way. ACE is already sort of a normalized measure of Atlantic activity. If you get a year like 2012 with a huge number of storms, but all weak, the ACE will reflect that. If you get few storms but all strong and long-lived, the ACE will reflect that.

ACE per storm is a logical metric to use to gauge the type of storms that were seen in a given season, but it does not describe the overall level of activity. The ACE by itself is used for that purpose.
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Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Massive isn't the word for how large the GFS is forecasting 03E to become. Its central dense overcast would take up the entire state of Texas at this time:



Yeesh...

You'd think that something that big would do something for the PWAT levels in the gulf but nope, sure doesn't.
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1395. txjac
Quoting sar2401:

Well, just got back in from washing the car. I'm now hot, wet, and sweaty, but the car is nice and shiny. Guess what I just saw on radar...yep, I've got several thunderstorms coming right at me. I hope my efforts do some good in Houston, since my car will look like it never got washed in about 45 minutes or so. :-)


too funny, so you had to go through all of that!
I'm going to go and look at my radar now
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Quoting sar2401:

I've often wondered the same thing. The best examples I can find are 1992 (7,4,1) with an ACE of 75, and 2007 (15,6,2) with an ACE of 72. Both years are classed as "Near Normal" on the ACE scale when neither one were near normal on any other scale. Obviously, one storm (Andrew) ramped up the entire year of 1992, while 2007 saw Dean and Felix, no slouches in the intensity department, yet scored a couple of points lower than 1992. Maybe someone a lot smarter than me can explain the value of non-normalized ACE scores.


Thanks for better illustrating my point. That is a perfect example.

I am asking because we often hear in the media, and by people here, that storms are getting more intense. I have been looking at the data and there is little evidence of this (although there is not enough reliable data to work with). Dr. M rightly points this out.
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1393. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
Mine is covered in dust - they trenched my road earlier this week, and are, as ususual, waiting until AFTER it rains to get around to filling it in - so every time the wind blows I get a new layer. I'm considering that little fact, along with the current heat - the sun is penetrating at this hour - and trying to convince myself that yes, I do want a clean car...


Until they're done with the trenching, don't bother. We have bright red clay here, and a lot of folks out in the country live on dirt roads. You can tell who they are because, no matter what colot the car (or pickup) was when it was new, it's now a nice red clay color. They wash their vehicles for weddings and funerals and, a week later, it's red clay color again. Just normal road dirt makes a car look bad after you wash it and it rains again. Trying to fight thick summer dust is like herding cats. :-)
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Well, I'm at a hotel in Asheville today. Here for two day orientation at UNCA starting tomorrow. Will be here until Tuesday evening. Anyway, what's up with Pacific?
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Quoting Grothar:


Classic healthy TD! And rather large!
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Quoting Grothar:



I just nap more these days. Just popped in to see if anything is developing. I always want to be the first at these things.

The only good thing about my whole ordeal, was that when I went to the hospital, the admission note read "Well nourished male approximately 45 years of age." After I read that one, I laughed myself back to health.


Did ya giver her? a kiss?'''''LOL
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1389. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:
A general question

When discussing trends in ACE among the seasons as a sign of activity or intensity of storms, why is the total ACE not normalized (divided by the number of storms in the season)?

Would this not control for seasons that have high ACE due to a higher number of storms (2009:10,3,2) vs those that have a smaller number of storms but of higher intensity (1964: 12,6,6).

All I have seen are direct comparisons of ACE.

Edit: I guess those were not the best years to pick as examples :)

A better example would be 2011: 19,7,4

I've often wondered the same thing. The best examples I can find are 1992 (7,4,1) with an ACE of 75, and 2007 (15,6,2) with an ACE of 72. Both years are classed as "Near Normal" on the ACE scale when neither one were near normal on any other scale. Obviously, one storm (Andrew) ramped up the entire year of 1992, while 2007 saw Dean and Felix, no slouches in the intensity department, yet scored a couple of points lower than 1992. Maybe someone a lot smarter than me can explain the value of non-normalized ACE scores.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17359
1388. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting Grothar:


In all honesty. I am very fond of most of you. But like most families, you love them but still want to give them a little shake now and then.


Sometimes a good shake is in order.
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1386. VR46L
Quoting BahaHurican:
Mine is covered in dust - they trenched my road earlier this week, and are, as ususual, waiting until AFTER it rains to get around to filling it in - so every time the wind blows I get a new layer. I'm considering that little fact, along with the current heat - the sun is penetrating at this hour - and trying to convince myself that yes, I do want a clean car...



And you have SAL en route too !

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Massive isn't the word for how large the GFS is forecasting 03E to become. Its central dense overcast would take up the entire state of Texas at this time:

Hmmm.....wonder if that CDO is as dense as some of the politicians in our state?
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1384. Grothar
Quoting daddyjames:


LOL - but you like most of us, if not all ;)


In all honesty. I am very fond of most of you. But like most families, you love them but still want to give them a little shake now and then.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting sar2401:

Well, just got back in from washing the car. I'm now hot, wet, and sweaty, but the car is nice and shiny. Guess what I just saw on radar...yep, I've got several thunderstorms coming right at me. I hope my efforts do some good in Houston, since my car will look like it never got washed in about 45 minutes or so. :-)
Mine is covered in dust - they trenched my road earlier this week, and are, as ususual, waiting until AFTER it rains to get around to filling it in - so every time the wind blows I get a new layer. I'm considering that little fact, along with the current heat - the sun is penetrating at this hour - and trying to convince myself that yes, I do want a clean car...

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1381. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:



I just nap more these days. Just popped in to see if anything is developing. I always want to be the first at these things.

The only good thing about my whole ordeal, was that when I went to the hospital, the admission note read "Well nourished male approximately 45 years of age." After I read that one, I laughed myself back to health.

Arf! The last time anyone thought I was approximately 45 years old, I actually was 45 years old. :-) I'm a firm believer in the idea that naps are an integral part of living a longer life. The longer I live, the more I like naps.
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Quoting Grothar:


That is why we like you.


LOL - but you like most of us, if not all ;)
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1379. Patrap
Das Boomer

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
A general question

When discussing trends in ACE among the seasons as a sign of activity or intensity of storms, why is the total ACE not normalized (divided by the number of storms in the season)?

Would this not control for seasons that have high ACE due to a higher number of storms (2009:10,3,2) vs those that have a smaller number of storms but of higher intensity (1964: 12,6,6).

All I have seen are direct comparisons of ACE.

Edit: I guess those were not the best years to pick as examples :)

A better example would be 2011: 19,7,4
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1376. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hey Gro..Hope ya feeling better!



I just nap more these days. Just popped in to see if anything is developing. I always want to be the first at these things.

The only good thing about my whole ordeal, was that when I went to the hospital, the admission note read "Well nourished male approximately 45 years of age." After I read that one, I laughed myself back to health.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Looks like the Naval Base on Socorro Island could be facing a cat 2.
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1374. Grothar
Quoting pottery:
Hydrus, posts 1290 & 1294.
Thanks for those.
Interesting to be able to look into the past like that.

You got this info. from Grothar, right ?

:):))


Payback is coming. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Hey Gro..Hope ya feeling better!
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1372. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


It's not like Phoenix where I live ( San Diego County mountains) but for the most part, summers have relatively low humidities but for the occasional monsoon week or two.....the swamper does a great job and much less expensive than running a big A/C unit.

Yeah, I didn't have A/C in California because it rarely became hot enough to need it. I did have a portable swamper for those couple of weeks in the fall when we got the Santa Ana winds. When the dewpoint was in the teens or 20's, it did a great job at least cooling off the living room. I finally rigged up a hose connection for it, since it came with only a five gallon water tank, and the tank would run dry about every half hour when we had that kind of weather. The A/C in the motorhome is about to go out, and they sell combination A/C units and swamp coolers now. It would be real nice to have one when I'm boondocking out west in that dry air again, since I can keep the rig cool on batteries instead of running the generator.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17359
1371. Grothar
Quoting daddyjames:
Hey all,

Thanks for calling me out - I did completely misinterpret Xulon's comment, and appreciate you putting on the brakes for me.

Maybe I should just retire from the blog today . . . as the Emotional Weather Report appears a bit stormy today.


That is why we like you.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
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Quoting sar2401:

There are times here when it's really difficult to tell if someone is being satirical...not that that has ever happened to me...cough***chemtrails***cough...:-) I had forgotten about that Tom Waits song. He actually lived up the road a piece from me in California. Woudn't it be great if he was hired by TWC to sing some forecasts when things were otherwise dull and boring? It would sure beat that elevator music they play now.


I love Tom Waits - that would be fun to hear. Even better, the NHC issuing musical Updates. :D
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Quoting hurricanes2018:
anyone watching 45 west




nothing is going too fourm out there right now wind shear is this way too high
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
And daddyjames, congrats on the Heat winning the NBA Championship! And back to back no less...Quite impressive! They beat a outstanding TEAM!



Last off-topic, BB post:
Yes they did, and one of the most classy finals to watch. Outstanding play, no dirty tricks - an excellent example of mutual respect and sportsmanship.

back to the weather . . .
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1366. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:
Hey all,

Thanks for calling me out - I did completely misinterpret Xulon's comment, and appreciate you putting on the brakes for me.

Maybe I should just retire from the blog today . . . as the Emotional Weather Report appears a bit stormy today.

There are times here when it's really difficult to tell if someone is being satirical...not that that has ever happened to me...cough***chemtrails***cough...:-) I had forgotten about that Tom Waits song. He actually lived up the road a piece from me in California. Woudn't it be great if he was hired by TWC to sing some forecasts when things were otherwise dull and boring? It would sure beat that elevator music they play now.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17359
Quoting sar2401:

Oh, no, not basketball again. :-) I was in Marvin's (our small town version of Home Depot) earlier today and saw several swamp coolers on sale. I have no clue why anyone would think that a swamp cooler would do any good in SE AL during the summer. It's starting to cool down a bit now as we get some outflow from some approaching thunderstorms. I say a bit because it's down to 89 from 92. The dewpoint has actually risen from 71 to 73, so it feels worse. Since a swamp coller works by evaporation, there's no way that it will ever put out air cooler than the dewpoint. If I was in Phoenix, with a temperature of 100 and a dewpoint of 23, a swamp cooler would cool down the house and add some much needed humidity. It will do just opposite here. The really strange part is the units were selling for about $100 more than comparable air conditioner. I just don't get it...


It's not like Phoenix where I live ( San Diego County mountains) but for the most part, summers have relatively low humidities but for the occasional monsoon week or two.....the swamper does a great job and much less expensive than running a big A/C unit.
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An ASCAT pass caught Tropical Depression Three-E just three hours ago.

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EURO continues to be quiet for North Atlantic.
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Afternoon all.

Quoting stormchaser19:

I Don't know if this is going to persists in that way for ASO but, that blocking pattern seems pretty doomed....This year certainly can be the worst years in terms of landfall, but we need to see the steering current pattern at the particular moment, but this is going to be crazy if that persists..
I'd be surprised to see that persist even through JAS... we normally see something of a shift as we move through the JJA period. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see a mean SLP high over the ATL that is stronger than usual. The key [as always] is in the where.

Trying to feel hopeful about a mean trough setting up further east!
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The result unfortunately dispels my basketball theory that TEAM ball beats ME ball........it's not the first nor the last time I will be wrong.
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1360. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:


LOL - I was referring to the Heat in Miami.

Oh, no, not basketball again. :-) I was in Marvin's (our small town version of Home Depot) earlier today and saw several swamp coolers on sale. I have no clue why anyone would think that a swamp cooler would do any good in SE AL during the summer. It's starting to cool down a bit now as we get some outflow from some approaching thunderstorms. I say a bit because it's down to 89 from 92. The dewpoint has actually risen from 71 to 73, so it feels worse. Since a swamp coller works by evaporation, there's no way that it will ever put out air cooler than the dewpoint. If I was in Phoenix, with a temperature of 100 and a dewpoint of 23, a swamp cooler would cool down the house and add some much needed humidity. It will do just opposite here. The really strange part is the units were selling for about $100 more than comparable air conditioner. I just don't get it...
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17359
1359. TXCWC
Quoting ncstorm:
12z CMC--HOLY....



Quoting ncstorm:
12z CMC--HOLY....



Quoting ncstorm:
12z CMC--HOLY....





1 run 1 model waiting to see for consistency and if any other major model jumps on board - ie Euro or GFS...with that said though I will not 100% discount it as this looks favorable - esp the Global Ensemble (green line):



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And daddyjames, congrats on the Heat winning the NBA Championship! And back to back no less...Quite impressive! They beat a outstanding TEAM!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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