Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El NiƱo years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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1458. sar2401
Quoting notanotherwrong:
Eeveryone said this will be a very very active season and ive been saying its not... now i hear people saying theres alot of wind shear african dust and the high wont be where it is supposed to be. so will they ever get it right? i know nothing much will happen this season and ive been right for years now. so dont let the mets scare you again they have been saying alot of action for the past 9 years in florida and nada nada

2012-2006=7 Seems like the two years prior to 2006 were kind of active.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13138
1457. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:


LOL - never thought someone in OK would be saying they got a break from the heat, especially coming from Alaska.

Why would it not be appropriate normalize by number of days, if I were to compare overall intensity of a season? Doesn't this remove the longevity bias mentioned before?


Longevity is something that should be included in overall season activity.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
1456. sar2401
Quoting 62901IL:
Good afternoon! Could you guys look at the models for the lower 48 and tell me if my area will be hit by severe weather. I live in the NWS paducah forecasting area, if that helps, my city is the place where the ZIP is 62901.
And send them to me by WUmail, my screen name is 62901IL.

Do you mean today, tomorrow, next week...what?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13138
Quoting Levi32:


Oh ok, well you can't do much with just the season total except normalize it by number of storms. To dig deeper you would need the ACE values from each individual storm.



Hey Baha, it's going great! Apparently I wouldn't be anymore comfortable in Alaska considering Fairbanks has been averaging the same high temperature as Norman the past two weeks...

We're traveling to Boulder, CO next week, so I'm excited for that.


LOL - never thought someone in OK would be saying they got a break from the heat, especially coming from Alaska.

Why would it not be appropriate normalize by number of days, if I were to compare overall intensity of a season? Doesn't this remove the longevity bias mentioned before?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1453. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:


No, i was just looking at the seasonal ACE, and had adjusted the value by normalizing by number of storms, but had not done the calculations for time.

Just an exercise for myself to gain a better understanding.


Oh ok, well you can't do much with just the season total except normalize it by number of storms. To dig deeper you would need the ACE values from each individual storm.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Levi... how's the internship going?


Hey Baha, it's going great! Apparently I wouldn't be anymore comfortable in Alaska considering Fairbanks has been averaging the same high temperature as Norman the past two weeks...

We're traveling to Boulder, CO next week, so I'm excited for that.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
1452. ncstorm
nice wave coming into view for Africa

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14451
1451. ncstorm


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14451



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232025Z - 232230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NCNTRL KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE TIMING OF INITIATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST
ESTIMATE IS 22-23Z. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS NERN INTO NCNTRL KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES WWD THROUGH CNTRL CO. A LEE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SWRN KS NEWD INTO NCNTRL KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES. CUMULUS HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
LIKELY STILL REMAINS...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID-UPPER 90S. THIS REGION
EXISTS SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WHERE HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO
BEEN RISING SLIGHTLY...BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 30-35 KT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE RELATIVELY LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST STORMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES AS STORMS INTERACT WITH WRN EXTENT OF THE MODIFYING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ.

..DIAL/KERR.. 06/23/2013


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38930033 39589911 39999818 39969746 39389691 38689740
38779826 38719913 38020002 38930033
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SMALL CHANGES WITH THE DEPRESSION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT WHILE
SOME OF THE OUTER BANDING HAS DIMINISHED...THE EARLIER CENTRAL
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORPHING INTO A CURVED BAND JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25-30 KT...
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. ALMOST ALL OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS
PROBABLY THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD KEEP IT
FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL...AND A BIT HIGHER THAN
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
WATER IN 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY ABOUT 120 H.

THE ASCAT DATA HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...JUST A
BIT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY
TOMORROW DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE CYCLONE IS
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
HAS A RATHER NARROW SPREAD...AND OTHER THAN A SLIGHT EASTWARD
ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 H...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 12.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 12.7N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.0N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 20.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 103.7W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1447. ncstorm
The 12z GFS ensembles has the storm in the GOM as the CMC at the same times



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14451
Quoting 62901IL:

is your profile pic hurricane andrew?
Nah... Hurricane Isabel 2003 ... the scariest cat 5 that never hit the Bahamas...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SMALL CHANGES WITH THE DEPRESSION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT WHILE
SOME OF THE OUTER BANDING HAS DIMINISHED...THE EARLIER CENTRAL
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORPHING INTO A CURVED BAND JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25-30 KT...
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. ALMOST ALL OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS
PROBABLY THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD KEEP IT
FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL...AND A BIT HIGHER THAN
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
WATER IN 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY ABOUT 120 H.

THE ASCAT DATA HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...JUST A
BIT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY
TOMORROW DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE CYCLONE IS
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
HAS A RATHER NARROW SPREAD...AND OTHER THAN A SLIGHT EASTWARD
ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 H...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 12.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 12.7N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.0N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 20.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 62901IL:
Good afternoon! Could you guys look at the models for the lower 48 and tell me if my area will be hit by severe weather. I live in the NWS paducah forecasting area, if that helps, my city is the place where the ZIP is 62901.
And send them to me by WUmail, my screen name is 62901IL.
I'm assuming u r on a phone... lol
We have seen it... look for WUmail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


The ACE is taken every 6 hours, so 4 measurements a day. ACE / day would be a valid metric to compare storm intensity, but at that point, if you're analyzing storm-specific ACE, you might be better off looking at the actual best-track wind speeds.


No, i was just looking at the seasonal ACE, and had adjusted the value by normalizing by number of storms, but had not done the calculations for time.

Just an exercise for myself to gain a better understanding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1442. 62901IL
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Levi... how's the internship going?

is your profile pic hurricane andrew?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1591
Quoting Levi32:


If you wanted to look at the average intensity and longevity of storms, then yes, that would be appropriate. You have to be careful, because the ACE is a running sum of values for each storm, so if it was a big GOM year, the ACE might be lower than if it was a Cape Verde year, simply because most of the storms ran into land after a shorter lifetime.
Hey, Levi... how's the internship going?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1440. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:


Ok, so - one more - to directly determine intensity, i would also have to nomalize the data by the number of days? Is this the correct time-scale for ACE calculations, I could look it up myself, but I'm being laz . . no make that, efficient.


The ACE is taken every 6 hours, so 4 measurements a day. ACE / day would be a valid metric to compare storm intensity, but at that point, if you're analyzing storm-specific ACE, you might be better off looking at the actual best-track wind speeds.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting nofailsafe:


The tripole is also looking healthier these days, a few weeks ago it appeared to be breaking down.
That caught my eye also.

Sure hope I'm not going to be stuck out of town in JAS if something interesting eventuates. Maybe I should make that WHEN....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1438. 62901IL
Good afternoon! Could you guys look at the models for the lower 48 and tell me if my area will be hit by severe weather. I live in the NWS paducah forecasting area, if that helps, my city is the place where the ZIP is 62901.
And send them to me by WUmail, my screen name is 62901IL.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1591
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




nothing is going too fourm out there right now wind shear is this way too high
Not to mention that boss high running everything off to the west in a hurry.....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


I meant in the way of tracks and Major storms hitting South Florida... But yes, I agree that the # of storms will be much higher.
Ah gotcha... I agree, I don't see much recurves like 2010 to 2012 seasons.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


If you're talking about computing the climatology, nothing is excluded, and there would be no good reason for doing so.


Ok, so - one more - to directly determine intensity, i would also have to nomalize the data by the number of days? Is this the correct time-scale for ACE calculations, I could look it up myself, but I'm being laz . . no make that, efficient.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1433. 62901IL
Repost: Good afternoon! Could you guys look at the models for the lower 48 and tell me if my area will be hit by severe weather. I live in the NWS paducah forecasting area, if that helps, my city is the place where the ZIP is 62901.
And send them to me by WUmail, my screen name is 62901IL.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1591
1432. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This was the CMC three days ago:



Here it is for nearly the same time now:



Better than the GFS...two moderate tropical storms...and ECMWF...one moderate tropical storm...at the time.

The CFC did an excellent job of catching both lows and placing them within about 100 miles of the current locations. Now we'll wait and see if it also nails the pressures in the mid 980's too.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13138
1431. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:


In determining the anomalies, are there any "ouliers"? Seasons that are commonly discarded from the calculations - or is everything thrown into the pot?

Edit: In determining the mean values


If you're talking about computing the climatology, nothing is excluded, and there would be no good reason for doing so.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
1430. Dakster
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, I don't see this becoming 1992 season. We'll triple that numbers of storms (hopefully not the same case with Category 5s).


I meant in the way of tracks and Major storms hitting South Florida... But yes, I agree that the # of storms will be much higher.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1429. Levi32
Quoting sar2401:

True, but Bonne waxed and waned her whole life, and Charley only lasted as a cat 2 for three days before wandering off and bothering the Azores. On any other scale but ACE, the 1992 total season was much below normal in terms of total number of storms and the intensity of storms...except for one. It seems to me that using an ACE score for an individual storm provides some useful information. To define a whole season by the ACE score, not so much.


1992's ACE was 73% of the long-term mean, and ranked 41 out of 63 for the 1950-2012 period. That's on the very lower edge of the middle tercile, which is the reason it is considered "near-normal," but just barely. The reality is, 1992 had 4 hurricanes, and the long-term average is 6. That's going to get you near-normal ACE most of the time. If you define climatology as 1995-2012, during the current positive AMO era, 1992 would fall easily into the lower tercile and be considered below average.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
1428. 62901IL
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, I don't see this becoming 1992 season. We'll triple that numbers of storms (hopefully not the same case with Category 5s).

Andrew was a cat 5.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1591
Quoting Dakster:
Let's hope for a year NOT like 1992...
Well, I don't see this becoming 1992 season. We'll triple that numbers of storms (hopefully not the same case with Category 5s).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1426. 62901IL
Good afternoon! Could you guys look at the models for the lower 48 and tell me if my area will be hit by severe weather. I live in the NWS paducah forecasting area, if that helps, my city is the place where the ZIP is 62901.
And send them to me by WUmail, my screen name is 62901IL.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1591
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, like all information about tropical cyclones, ACE is likely much less accurate before 1979.


In determining the anomalies, are there any "ouliers"? Seasons that are commonly discarded from the calculations - or is everything thrown into the pot?

Edit: In determining the mean values
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1424. sar2401
Quoting SLU:


Good point. I can't say much on it yet because I do not have the info regarding the ACE of each individual storm in those seasons but I think it has to do with the rapid forward speed of Dean and Felix. Even though they tracked across almost the entire Caribbean at very high intensities, they also moved very quickly thus reducing the number of major hurricane days and ACE they both contributed. Also, the rest of the storms in 2007 were lacklustre and those which reached hurricane strength apart from Dean and Felix remained at category 1 and didn't last too long. However, there were 2 other category 2 hurricanes in 1992 apart from Andrew.




True, but Bonne waxed and waned her whole life, and Charley only lasted as a cat 2 for three days before wandering off and bothering the Azores. On any other scale but ACE, the 1992 total season was much below normal in terms of total number of storms and the intensity of storms...except for one. It seems to me that using an ACE score for an individual storm provides some useful information. To define a whole season by the ACE score, not so much.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13138
1423. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:


I had anticipated the "longevity" aspect. So, you would look at the anomalies - what would be most appropriate 1981-2010, given that there is satellite and ample data as compared with earlier.

Interestingly enough, the values for that timespan is consistent with that from 1950-2010.


Yeah, like all information about tropical cyclones, ACE is likely much less accurate before 1979.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
1422. Grothar
Quoting Xulonn:
Methinks you missed the "/snark" tag, which means my comment was sarcasm.

I was supporting you for including complexity and nuance, not denigrating you.


He already apologized to you a few entries back. And a very nice one I might add.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
I see that 94E has acquired tropical depression status as expected. Gradual strengthening, possibly rapid, is anticipated in the next couple of days as it will remain in favorable conditions, including warm SSTs, light to moderate shear, and very moist environment due to the oncoming MJO. I expect it to reach as a minimal hurricane by early Tuesday and rapidly weaken thereafter.



95E has regained convection earlier today due to DMAX. However, it is already starting to feel the effects of southeasterly shear coming from the upper-level outflow of TD 3-E. Chances of becoming a tropical depression is now slipping away. Whatever is left of 95E will be absorbed by TD 3-E/Cosme and will help it to increase the size and energy of the larger, stronger system.

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New ITCZ parameters:







Running slightly south of its normal latitude.
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Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13395
Quoting Xulonn:
Methinks you missed the "/snark" tag, which means my comment was sarcasm.

I was supporting you for including complexity and nuance, not denigrating you.


Hey Xulonn, you are totally correct, I sent you a WU mail and gave an open apology on the blog.

I did totally misinterpret it, and was rightly called out for it by others on the blog.
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http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_ D5_PN_240_0000.gif
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
So far the North Atlantic ACE numbers are 4.1975.

01L (Andrea) 2.9925
02L (Barry) 1.205

both storm made landfall no fish storms yet..
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13395
Quoting Levi32:


That's why you need ACE climatologies for each basin. You need ACE anomalies in order to do a cross-basin comparison.


I had anticipated the "longevity" aspect. So, you would look at the anomalies - what would be most appropriate 1981-2010, given that there is satellite and ample data as compared with earlier.

Interestingly enough, the values for that timespan is consistent with that from 1950-2010.
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1415. Xulonn
Quoting daddyjames:


Hey Xulon, this is a long standing problem that has been documented in India for a while now. The articles referenced are India's own newspaper reporting on the problems. I have no idea what problem you have with honest reporting of a significant cause of food shortage problems in India.
Methinks you missed the "/snark" tag, which means my comment was sarcasm.

I was supporting you for including complexity and nuance, not denigrating you.

[edit] In catching up on the blog after writing an essay on climate change for my online University of British Columbia climate science course, I saw the comments and apology. No hard feelings, DJ. I've misinterpreted posts and reacted negatively myself.

I have seen irony/sarcasm go undetected before here at Dr. Masters' blog, and I was sure that the "/snark" tag would avoid that.

And now, back to today's weather....
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So far the North Atlantic ACE numbers are 4.1975.

01L (Andrea) 2.9925
02L (Barry) 1.205

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1413. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:


Another question, in comparing across basins - is there a "fudge factor" given that the longevity of storms in the Atlantic is "shortened" due to land interactions as opposed to the the other basins (like the EPAC)? Just curious . . .


That's why you need ACE climatologies for each basin. You need normalized ACE anomalies in order to do a cross-basin comparison.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Doesn't the cyclone in a monsoon trof or ITCZ have it's intensification inhibited until it can pull away? TD 3 in the Pacific is not moving yet but looks to be organizing very nicely?
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1411. Gearsts
Quoting nofailsafe:


The tripole is also looking healthier these days, a few weeks ago it appeared to be breaking down.
Impressive how fast things change.
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1410. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:


So, if you wanted to look at varaitions in seasonal intensity of storms using ACE as a measure - it would be suitable to normalize the data by the number of storms.


If you wanted to look at the average intensity and longevity of storms, then yes, that would be appropriate. You have to be careful, because the ACE is a running sum of values for each storm, so if it was a big GOM year, the ACE might be lower than if it was a Cape Verde year, simply because most of the storms ran into land after a shorter lifetime.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
1409. Dakster
Let's hope for a year NOT like 1992...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting Levi32:


Because a large number of storms still means a season was active, just in a different way. ACE is already sort of a normalized measure of Atlantic activity. If you get a year like 2012 with a huge number of storms, but all weak, the ACE will reflect that. If you get few storms but all strong and long-lived, the ACE will reflect that.

ACE per storm is a logical metric to use to gauge the type of storms that were seen in a given season, but it does not describe the overall level of activity. The ACE by itself is used for that purpose.


Another question, in comparing across basins - is there a "fudge factor" given that the longevity of storms in the Atlantic is "shortened" due to land interactions as opposed to the the other basins (like the EPAC)? Just curious . . .
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.