Over 500 Killed in India's Monsoon Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on June 21, 2013

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Earth's deadliest natural disaster so far in 2013 is the deadly flooding in India's Himalayan Uttarakhand region, where torrential monsoon rains have killed at least 556 people, with hundreds more feared dead. At least 5,000 people are missing. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours on June 16 - 17. This was the highest 24-hour rainfall in city history, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Dr. Dave Petley's Landslide Blog details that the torrential rains triggered a massive landslide that hit Uttarakhand's Hindu shrine in Kedarnath, which lies just a short distance from the snout of two mountain glaciers. The shrine is an important pilgrimage destination this time of year, and was packed with visitors celebrating the char-dham yatra: a pilgrimage to the four holy sites of Gangotri, Kedarnath, Yamnotri and Badrinath. Apparently, heavy rainfall triggered a collapse event on the mountain above Kedarnath, which turned into a debris flow downstream that struck the town. The main temple was heavily damaged, and numerous buildings in the town were demolished. It was Earth's deadliest landslide since the August 2010 Zhouqu landslide in China.

According to Aon Benfield's May Catastrophe Report, Earth's deadliest natural disasters of 2013 so far:

Winter weather, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, 1/1 - 1/20, 329 deaths
Earthquake, China, 4/20, 196 deaths
Flooding, Southern Africa, 1/10 - 2/28, 175 deaths
Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, 70 deaths
Flooding, Kenya, 3/10 - 4/30, 66 deaths


Figure 1. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) arrive to rescue stranded Sikh devotees from Hemkunt Sahib Gurudwara, a religious Sikh temple, to a safe place in Chamoli district, in northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Monday, June 17, 2013. AP photo.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the 7-day period June 11 - 17, 2013, from NASA's TRMM satellite exceeded 20 inches (508 mm) over portions of India's Uttarakhand province, leading to catastrophic floods. Image credit: NASA.

A record early arrival of the monsoon
The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record. The previous record for fastest monsoon progression occurred in 1961, when all of India was under monsoon conditions by June 21. Reliable monsoon records go back to 1961, and are patchy before then. Fortunately, no more heavy rain is expected in Uttarakhand over the next few days, as the monsoon will be active only in eastern India. Heavy rains are expected again in the region beginning on June 24. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's post, Summer Monsoon Advances Rapidly across India: Massive Flooding Ensues, has more detail on the meteorology of this year's monsoon. There is criticism from some that the devastating floods were not entirely a natural disaster--human-caused deforestation, dam building, and mining may have contributed. "Large-scale construction of dams and absence of environmental regulations has led to the floods," said Sunita Narian, director general of Delhi based advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).


Figure 3. The summer monsoon arrived in southwest India right on schedule (June 1) in South India, but it spread northward much faster than usual, reaching Pakistan a full month earlier than normal. Solid green contours indicate the progress of the 2013 summer monsoon (each contour is labeled with a date). You can compare this year's rapid advance to a "normal" progression, which is represented by the dashed, red contours (also labeled with dates).

Monsoons in India: a primer
Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and 60,000 people--an average of 500 people per year--died in India due to monsoon floods between 1900 - 2012, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. EM-DAT lists sixteen flood disasters which killed 1,000 or more people in India since records began in 1950. Here are the number of people killed in these events, along with the month and year of occurrence and locales affected:

4892, Jul 1968, Rajasthan, Gujara
3800, Jul 1978, North, Northeast
2001, May - Oct, 1994, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh
2000, Jul 1961, North
1811, Aug 1998, Assam, Arunachal, Bihar
1600, Aug 1980, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar
1591, Jul 28, 1989, Maharashtra, Andhra Prade
1479, Sep 1995, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab
1442, Aug 1997, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal
1200, Jul 24 - Aug 5, 2005 Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh
1200, Aug 1987, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal
1103, Jul 3 - Sep 22, 2007, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
1063, Jun 11 - Jul 21, 2008 West Bengal, Orissa
1023, Jun 1971, North
1000, Sep 22 - Oct 9, 1988, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh
1000, Oct 1961

The monsoon occurs in summer, when the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This happens because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Typically, 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form each summer over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India.

The future of monsoons in India
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.


Video 1. Flood waters claim a multi-story apartment building in Uttarakhand province, India, on June 17, 2013.

Historic flooding in Calgary, Alberta
Torrential rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday has resulted in the most extensive flooding in Alberta Province, Canada in at least 8 years, with some 100,000 people facing evacuations in the city of Calgary. Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his latest post. The floods are due, in part to the "stuck" jet stream pattern that brought record heat to Alaska this week.

Jeff Masters

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1508. auburn (Mod)
Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the ! button and ignored.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


He does nothing but stand by his forecasts if anything, so I'll give him props on that. However, he never gives evidence, never states a reason behind it and never wants to engage in a civilized discussion or back up his rather outlandish predictions. This is the case every single year. The only thing he does is spout out tortured logic and then claim it's "all hype, Florida is safe again as usual." Basically, he's a troll and has been banned at least 20 times from here.




then why aret the modes not doing there job and bannding this one named notanotherwrong wish he is a troll wish been bannd 20 times all ready
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1506. help4u
New poster is storm w or the eye.
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Are we starting to get off topic?? Make use of the ignore user button.



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Quoting BahaHurican:
The inexorable roll of time will out the wrong and the right.

Let it roll.

Nothing wrong with standing by your forecast. It would help to add a bit of punctuation in there, though, if possible - easier for most of us to read.


He does nothing but stand by his forecasts if anything, so I'll give him props on that. However, he never gives evidence, never states a reason behind it and never wants to engage in a civilized discussion or back up his rather outlandish predictions. This is the case every single year. The only thing he does is spout out tortured logic and then claim it's "all hype, Florida is safe again as usual." Basically, he's a troll and has been banned at least 20 times from here.

And yes, a bit of punctuation would help.
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Quoting VR46L:



LOL !!!


But I will Agree with Panhandle Chuck Its very early for the season to be called a bust already ..... but I dont think it will be as busy as has been hyped !


The models aren't even accurate 10 days out, so how can you predict what is 2-3 months out. To say that a season is a bust when it is in its infancy is a very knee jerk assumption. Tell what you think will happen in a week and I would seriously consider your points but not calling the season a bust at this point. This year has been a year of unusual weaqther patterns throughout the US. Look at today, a record high temp in Alaska, no one knows
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Quoting notanotherwrong:
every time i would prove the experts wrong and make a few statements they would ban me so a new account was right around the corner. i guess that hate being proved wrong every year


What are all of your previous handles?
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1499. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Don't you mean weeks? You joined last month.

He means under the fourteen other handles he's used in the years he was right. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17362
Quoting notanotherwrong:
if you look back in may i said the same exact same thing would be happening now in end of june and into july so whoes the troll me who is right or you who is wrong........ i believe i made that statement on may 24th
The inexorable roll of time will out the wrong and the right.

Let it roll.

Nothing wrong with standing by your forecast. It would help to add a bit of punctuation in there, though, if possible - easier for most of us to read.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's the same guy that kept creating new accounts over years.... did you not noticed how all of his accounts are almost similar?


Oh he's one of those.

I hereby dedicate the last five seconds of this video to all the trolls.
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Quoting VR46L:


If So he gave an opinion , may not be popular,but honestly I find the 3 points he made valid . Not Every year has 19 storms ... Take 2006 which followed the nightmere of 2004 and 2005.

Basically a bust Season

That was the first full year of the blog.... everybody was watching for another 2005... including all the "experts".... then everything went to el nino unexpectedly, and the season basically ended after Isaac. There were actually a couple of pretty decent majors... but steering kept most storms out to sea. That was the year of the fish storm.

However, having looked at some of the variables, so far nothing is suggesting that the season will be below average. The current state of dust, shear and even the size / orientation of the AB high are not unusual for June. Frankly, we don't generally expect to see much activity, especially in the MDR, before 1 Aug anyway. Anything earlier is gravy, and that's one reason why 2005 is such an anomaly.
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1493. Patrap
Only one wu Dude uses run on sentences and no punctuation,..

Party of ten of the town's best men
Headed for Haddy's shack.
Said swamp witch magic was useful and good
And they goin' bring Haddy back.
They never found Haddy, and they never found the shack,
They never made a trip back in.
Cos a parchment note they found tacked to a stump, said
Don't come looking again!



: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting VR46L:


He might actually have a point . actually Massive Dust Outbreak Shear is very High . and the High is setting up so deep that there is next to no chance of development .

The Models have all changed there long term tune last week as to how busy a season it would be, except the Euro which didn't predict a season of DOOM !


And they're getting the hint and switching back, check out the latest CFS forecast, which has done a complete 180 from the unfavorable conditions it was showing persisting in the Atlantic. You're looking at the hurricane season as if it were August or September - it's June. SAL and shear are to be expected and if you look at the climatological average, it's not all that above average, just a spike.

And the EURO was dead wrong last year with its forecast, which also predicted an unfavorable Atlantic for development. Clearly, though many of the storms stayed below major hurricane status, that didn't turn out to be the case.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Don't you mean weeks? You joined last month.
It's the same guy that kept creating new accounts over years.... did you not noticed how all of his accounts are almost similar?
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1490. FOREX
Quoting notanotherwrong:
they also forcasted a big monsoon over west africa that would keep the dust down over the atlantic and that hasnt happened either now causing alot of dry dust to penetrate the atlantic


old news
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Quoting notanotherwrong:
thnk you i believe i have made many many valid correct points over the years


Don't you mean weeks? You joined last month.
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1485. VR46L
Quoting notanotherwrong:
oops sorry i meant that for the idiot who said i was troliing not you



LOL !!!


But I will Agree with Panhandle Chuck Its very early for the season to be called a bust already ..... but I dont think it will be as busy as has been hyped !
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Quoting VR46L:


If So he gave an opinion , may not be popular,but honestly I find the 3 points he made valid . Not Every year has 19 storms ... Take 2006 which followed the nightmere of 2004 and 2005.

Basically a bust Season

You can thanks El Nino for that, as well as SAL going deeper into season than expected and second high setting up in Bermuda. 2013 season still might end up like 2006, but it's doubtful right now because models are forecasting neutral conditions.
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1481. Patrap
Baked Alaska: Sunbathers take to the beach as Arctic state swelters in heatwave with temperatures close to 100F

Anchorage sees highest ever temperature for this time of year at 81F

Alaskans flock to lakes and beaches to take advantage of freak heatwave

By DAILY MAIL REPORTER
PUBLISHED: 02:51 EST, 19 June 2013 | UPDATED: 16:45 EST, 19 June 2013


Alaska may be better known for its glaciers and forests than for its beaches, but this week residents of the icy state have been soaking up the sun during a freak heatwave.
Anchorage, the state's biggest city, has seen record temperatures of 81F (27C), while other parts of Alaska are believed to have climbed as high as 98F.
However, while many are delighted by the unusual warmth, others are sweltering in homes and offices which lack air-conditioning and are not designed to tackle heat.

Residents have been sunbathing and swimming at lakes throughout the state, welcoming the heatwave which comes just a month after the last snows of the winter.
18-year-old Jordan Rollison, who joined hundreds relaxing on the shore of Goose Lake, commented: 'I love it - I've never seen a summer like this, ever.'

But others were less positive - Anchorage resident Lorraine Roehl said, 'It's almost unbearable to me. I don't like being hot.'
State officials took the unusual step of warning people that they should wear sunscreen if they go outside.


The 81F temperature officially recorded in Anchorage yesterday is the highest ever seen on that date, while other places saw even more extreme spikes.
The small town of Talkeetna near Mt McKinley saw an official peak of 96F, and a lodge nearby apparently measured 98F - equaling the highest temperature ever recorded in Alaska.

'This is the hottest heat wave in Alaska since 1969,' said meteorologist Jeff Masters. 'You're way, way from normal.'
The heat wave also comes after a few cooler summers - the last time it officially hit the 80 mark in Anchorage was 2009.

The wave has brought a bonanza for stores selling summer supplies - the True Value Hardware store had run out of fans, and was selling five times the usual amount of mosquito repellent.
'Those are two hot items, so to speak,' store owner Tim Craig joked.
However, the unusual heat is set to come to an end soon - a high pressure system responsible for clear skies and high temperatures has moved on, meaning forecasters expect a cooling trend starting from today.


AP Bonanza: Tim Craig with the last fan available for sale at the True Value Hardware store in Anchorage
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
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1478. VR46L
Quoting Bluestorm5:
High won't be strong forever. Also, dust outbreaks are common until August or September so it's not a surprise. This guy is just trolling up.


If So he gave an opinion , may not be popular,but honestly I find the 3 points he made valid . Not Every year has 19 storms ... Take 2006 which followed the nightmere of 2004 and 2005.

Basically a bust Season

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1477. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:


To compare activity, one would have to consider longevity, as that would be an important component of the environment.

Yes, no question about that, but how big a part is longevity in the total ACE score for a storm? It really seems like, using Phillipe as an example, that he was barely a tropical storm most of his life, and only survived as long as he did because there were no steering currents strong enough to take him into the shear and kill him, even though we all expected it to happen any time now. It almost seems like he should have points deducted for not comitting hari-kari and putting us (and him) out of our misery. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17362
@ Levi

Thanks for your help, have a good trip to Boulder CO.
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Quoting VR46L:


He might actually have a point . actually Massive Dust Outbreak Shear is very High . and the High is setting up so deep that there is next to no chance of development .

The Models have all changed there long term tune last week as to how busy a season it would be, except the Euro which didn't predict a season of DOOM !


It's very, very, very early in the season!
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Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
1473. Levi32
Quoting sar2401:

So...wait...how big a part of the equation is longevity? If we have a storm like Phillipe (2011), which survived as some kind of tropical thing for 15 days, but was only a hurricane for about 36 hours, how does his longevity compare in ACE calculations with something like a cat 3 that only survives for four days before landfall? Seems like longevity is almost a chance kind of thing, depending on where a storm is born and what the steering currents are like for the life of the storm.


We're talking about the Atlantic Ocean as a whole. Suppose we had a season of all GOM storms that were strong but short-lived. You might say "well wouldn't the ACE be higher if those storms were out in the MDR?". Maybe, but they weren't out in the MDR, and that is exactly what matters. A lack of storms away from land says something about the environment in the Atlantic, as well as vice versa. If a long-track storm stays over water for two weeks, that says something about the environment along its entire track.

If we want a measure of the overall level of activity ocean-wide, we have to integrate along the track of each storm. That's what the ACE does.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Levi32:


Alright, so keep in mind "intensity" and "overall activity" are not the same thing. If you want average storm intensity only, you can't really get a good proxy for it by dividing by the number of storm days. The reason for this is that the ACE metric is non-linear. It is based on the velocity squared, which means a linear division won't work for you. You would have to take the square root of the ACE at every point along every storm track, at which point you're basically reconstructing each storm's intensity records. In other words, if you want to compare storm average intensity, you need to use the actual intensity data. ACE was meant to be a metric combining intensity and longevity in a non-linear way.


Got it - was not aware of the units of ACE. Thanks for clarifying it for me.
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West Fork fire grows to 70,000 acres in Colorado, cabins threatened

By Tom McGhee and Bruce Finley
The Denver Post
Posted:   06/23/2013 09:43:49 AM MDT

The West Fork fire gained ground overnight into Sunday, growing about 4,000 acres to an estimated 70,257 acres, and continuing its threat to tourist towns on the west edge of Colorado's San Luis Valley.

The Papoose wildfire, now part of the West Fork Fire Complex, increased in size in an area about 15 miles southwest of Creede and south of the Rio Grande River, said Steve Till, a spokesman for the National Incident Management Organization.

Firefighters are setting blazes around cabins that lie in the path of the fire in order to halt the encroaching flames and protect the structures.

"They are trying to keep the fire from crossing (Highway 149), that will make life easier for the people in Creede and our cabin owners," Till said Sunday.

In some places, spruce beetles have killed up to 90 percent of trees, turning sprawling stands of timber into tinder-dry fuel.

On Saturday, the West Fork fire complex was fed by chaotic and often-intense winds and was the largest of more than a dozen wildfires around the state ....
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1469. sar2401
Quoting Levi32:




We're traveling to Boulder, CO next week, so I'm excited for that.


I assume you're going to stop in and see NCAR. Pretty amazing place, both for weather stuff and the beautiful location.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17362
1468. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:


Ok. But now I am confused. Bear with me.

If I wanted to look and compare trends of intensity, and intensity only, between seasons within a basin, and among the basins, would I not want to factor out longevity?


Alright, so keep in mind "intensity" and "overall activity" are not the same thing. If you want average storm intensity only, you can't really get a good proxy for it by dividing by the number of storm days. The reason for this is that the ACE metric is non-linear. It is based on the velocity squared, which means a linear division won't work for you. You would have to take the square root of the ACE at every point along every storm track, at which point you're basically reconstructing each storm's intensity records. In other words, if you want to compare storm average intensity, you need to use the actual intensity data. ACE was meant to be a metric combining intensity and longevity in a non-linear way.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting VR46L:


He might actually have a point . actually Massive Dust Outbreak Shear is very High . and the High is setting up so deep that there is next to no chance of development .

The Models have all changed there long term tune last week as to how busy a season it would be, except the Euro which didn't predict a season of DOOM !
High won't be strong forever. Also, dust outbreaks are common until August or September so it's not a surprise. This guy is just trolling up.
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Quoting sar2401:

So...wait...how big a part of the equation is longevity? If we have a storm like Phillipe (2011), which survived as some kind of tropical thing for 15 days, but was only a hurricane for about 36 hours, how does his longevity compare in ACE calculations with something like a cat 3 that only survives for four days before landfall? Seems like longevity is almost a chance kind of thing, depending on where a storm is born and what the steering currents are like for the life of the storm.


To compare activity, one would have to consider longevity, as that would be an important component of the environment.
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1465. VR46L
Quoting Bluestorm5:
1455- you don't give up, don't you?


He might actually have a point . actually Massive Dust Outbreak Shear is very High . and the High is setting up so deep that there is next to no chance of development .

The Models have all changed there long term tune last week as to how busy a season it would be, except the Euro which didn't predict a season of DOOM !
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1464. sar2401
Quoting Levi32:


Longevity is something that should be included in overall season activity.

So...wait...how big a part of the equation is longevity? If we have a storm like Phillipe (2011), which survived as some kind of tropical thing for 15 days, but was only a hurricane for about 36 hours, how does his longevity compare in ACE calculations with something like a cat 3 that only survives for four days before landfall? Seems like longevity is almost a chance kind of thing, depending on where a storm is born and what the steering currents are like for the life of the storm.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17362
Quoting notanotherwrong:
Eeveryone said this will be a very very active season and ive been saying its not... now i hear people saying theres alot of wind shear african dust and the high wont be where it is supposed to be. so will they ever get it right? i know nothing much will happen this season and ive been right for years now. so dont let the mets scare you again they have been saying alot of action for the past 9 years in florida and nada nada



you been vary wrong for many years
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Levi32:


Longevity is something that should be included in overall season activity.


Ok. But now I am confused. Bear with me.

If I wanted to look and compare trends of intensity, and intensity only, between seasons within a basin, and among the basins, would I not want to factor out longevity?

Edit: Normalize for longevity and number of storms?
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1455- you don't give up, don't you?
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh ok, well you can't do much with just the season total except normalize it by number of storms. To dig deeper you would need the ACE values from each individual storm.



Hey Baha, it's going great! Apparently I wouldn't be anymore comfortable in Alaska considering Fairbanks has been averaging the same high temperature as Norman the past two weeks...

We're traveling to Boulder, CO next week, so I'm excited for that.
Been through Boulder a couple times by bus, and I will prolly pass through there later this summer.... hopefully there won't be fires up that way, as it seems CO is pretty hot this year....

And yeah... it looks like u were the only thing keeping AK cool.... lol
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Hinchcliffe wins IndyCar race at Iowa Speedway.

78.7 here in Jurupa Valley, CA

Indian Hills, Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:50 PM PDT on June 23, 2013
Clear
79.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 56 °F
Wind: 6.5 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph
Pressure: 29.81 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 80 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

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1458. sar2401
Quoting notanotherwrong:
Eeveryone said this will be a very very active season and ive been saying its not... now i hear people saying theres alot of wind shear african dust and the high wont be where it is supposed to be. so will they ever get it right? i know nothing much will happen this season and ive been right for years now. so dont let the mets scare you again they have been saying alot of action for the past 9 years in florida and nada nada

2012-2006=7 Seems like the two years prior to 2006 were kind of active.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron