Tropical Storm Barry Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters this afternoon indicates that Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1000 feet as high as 47 mph, which implies winds of at least 40 mph at the surface, using the usual 10% reduction rule for winds measured at 1000 feet. Barry has a small but growing area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are steadily showing more organization this afternoon, and low-level spiral bands have begun to appear. Wind shear was a moderate 15 knots on Wednesday afternoon, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. Barry is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like Barry and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect Barry will have time to attain sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon near Veracruz, Mexico. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Barry, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a weak or strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of Barry's rains from reaching the U.S. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Barry at 12:40 pm EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Barry's place in history
Barry is the second named storm of June 2013, and its formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968. The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season, though.

The formation of Tropical Storm Andrea and now Tropical Storm Barry in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been sixteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to six in the nineteen-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 - 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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Thanks Mississippi for the explanation! Is that upper levvel trough going to stick around for a while?
Quoting MississippiWx:
The tropical wave over Puerto Rico is on the southeast flank of an upper level trough. This is enhancing the upper level divergence in the area and helping to fire off convection along the wave axis. The spin seen on radar is a decaying mid-level rotation that developed in the convection. There is currently nothing worth mentioning at the surface and shear along with land should act to keep the wave from developing.

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Theres nothing at the surface with wave near PR. Could enhance storms over my neck of the woods later this week into wknd.
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The tropical wave over Puerto Rico is on the southeast flank of an upper level trough. This is enhancing the upper level divergence in the area and helping to fire off convection along the wave axis. The spin seen on radar is a decaying mid-level rotation that developed in the convection. There is currently nothing worth mentioning at the surface and shear along with land should act to keep the wave from developing.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Caribbean - False Color RGB Loop

click image for loop

zoom is active

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128657
Oh absolutely. It needs to survive dmin and come back. There is low level circ though. Look at the vorticity maps.

Link

Quoting FIUStormChaser:


I wouldn't go that far, there are no indications of any low level circulation, or any significant surface winds. A circulation must be closed, have winds of 25kts, and have convection persisting around the center of circulation.

However all that being said, there is a chance looking at shear maps that this could develop a little more, and we could possibly get an invest out of this.
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.4mb/ 49.0kt

Gotta wait until SAB and TAFB come out in a little under an hour. I believe Barry is 45-50 mph right now.

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Navy gets new weather forecasting system
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Quoting gator23:
That is a wave which is quickly forming into a depression. If that spin is there tomorrow and it survives dmin I wouldnt be surprised to see it called.



I wouldn't go that far, there are no indications of any low level circulation, or any significant surface winds. A circulation must be closed, have winds of 25kts, and have convection persisting around the center of circulation to be labeled as a tropical cyclone.

However all that being said, there is a chance looking at shear maps that this could develop a little more, and we could possibly get an invest out of this.
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So not even a yellow mark over the TW by PR. Is that swirl on the radar considered a LLC? Just wondering why the NHC isn't paying much attention to it. Is the TUTT an upper level low? Is that too close to the TW? A few of you are pretty sharp, I am a novice so enlighten me here.
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Convection is definitely on a weakening trend with that wave, probably because of D-Min, and it looks to have about 30kts of shear affecting it, so obviously far from perfect conditions. Still, a 0-10% yellow circle may be warranted at 8PM.



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San Juan
NEXRAD Radar

Base Radial Velocity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128657
Here’s a snippet from the National Weather Service forecast discussion for the Fairbanks area:

…REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS FOLLOWED…ALL OF THEM SPELL EXTREME HEAT FOR NORTHERN ALASKA ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID RANGE MODELS. THERE IS SOME DEVIATION IN TERMS OF HOW HOT…BUT RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE MONTH ACCORDING TO ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS.

For Fairbanks and other areas in northern Alaska, that means temperatures in the high-80s and even low-90s, compared to normal maximum temperatures in the high 60s and low 70s.

Alaska’s heat wave isn’t simply a one-off, freak event. Since the mid-20th Century, the average temperature of the Earth has increased by about 0.6°C (1.1°F), driven in large measure by our emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. But the warming hasn’t been uniform. In fact, the far north has been warming faster than anywhere else, with the Arctic heating up twice as fast as the global average.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Nice looking spin in the radar, weird TW.

*Pretty interesting to look at.


I think this wave has a small chance of developing..
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That is a wave which is quickly forming into a depression. If that spin is there tomorrow and it survives dmin I wouldnt be surprised to see it called.

Quoting JLPR2:


Nice looking spin in the radar, weird TW.

*Pretty interesting to look at.
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253. WWPR

Nice looking spin in the radar, weird TW.

*Pretty interesting to look at.

Sure is.
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Wouldn't it have been amazing if Hurricane Barbara had survived the passage into the BOC and had remained Barbara in the gulf and if 92L would have become classified? That would have made this one heck of a June in the Atlantic Basin, lol
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new video of the tropical storm
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Quoting MississippiWx:


They won't make it for their next scheduled flight.

Yup. I wish recon would've stayed longer or another flight was already on its way.
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248. JLPR2


Nice looking spin in the radar, weird TW.

*Pretty interesting to look at.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


They won't make it for their next scheduled flight.


It would be nice to get a plane in there for accuracy.... So we can serve everyone crow Link
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
545 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

TXC219-192300-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130619T2300Z/
HOCKLEY TX-
545 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN HOCKLEY
COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 541 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 4 MILES NORTHWEST NEAR SUNDOWN...OR 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEVELLAND. MOVEMENT HAS BEEN ERRATIC.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEVELLAND...SUNDOWN AND OPDYKE WEST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LUBBOCK AT 8067451290.

&&

LAT...LON 3362 10227 3339 10225 3339 10259 3357 10260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 236DEG 6KT 3351 10253

$$



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Water spout in Grand Isle, Louisiana today. I typically think that's the best weather to water ski in as well.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
244. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
6:00 AM JST June 20 2013
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) near 14.8N 116.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.8N 114.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
For Barry:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.6mb/ 47.0kt


Definitely has the structure of a 47kt tropical storm.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

At least they went this time!



They won't make it for their next scheduled flight.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Recon went too early.


At least they went this time!

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Good stuff

Rapping up
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Recon went too early.

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238. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:
If someone posts " Mandy " your reported..:)


Couldn't agree with you more !


Back to the other Barry ...

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Quoting hydrus:
Apology for what?
Hell if I know..I thought you emailed me....LOL
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Quoting JLPR2:


Not sure, but he must have gotten something.


Yeah, the little I got is still better than nothing at all :-)
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
hydus.No apology need friend.
Apology for what?
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Quoting hydrus:
If someone posts Please.No Manilow...Looks Like We Made It.
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Looks like Barry is getting stronger.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Did Caribboy receive the rain he want?


Unfortunately, I didn't receive copious rain... 1 inch.
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--------Intensity------- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time Final/MSLPLat/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW Storm Location Fix
Date (UTC) CI MSLP /BiasAdj/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Lat Lon Mthd Comments
2013JUN19 214500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -22.26 -52.40 CRVBND N/A 19.60 95.30 FCST
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
Quoting Dakster:
How about a little 'Barry' Manilow to lighten the mood on the blog?

Calm down there Wash...
If someone posts " Mandy " your reported..:)
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hydus.No apology needed friend.
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Quoting Patrap:



Thank ya much there CT,..

Barry is 50 mph now?
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Quoting RickWPB:


I remember Donna, Sept. 1960. I was just 16 y.o. and my dad was in the hospital. I had to put up the shutters and secure our Lake Worth home for the storm. It was a pretty good learning experience. Donna managed to get most of FL before heading up the east coast.
Quoting RickWPB:


I remember Donna, Sept. 1960. I was just 16 y.o. and my dad was in the hospital. I had to put up the shutters and secure our Lake Worth home for the storm. It was a pretty good learning experience. Donna managed to get most of FL before heading up the east coast.
Rick.I finally moved out of Lake Worth...I was on Palmway... I moved to west Boynton. My last Lake Worth Utility bill was $426....No more thank goodness.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
For Barry:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.6mb/ 47.0kt



Thank ya much there CT,..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128657
For Barry:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.6mb/ 47.0kt
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Brownsville
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI



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might not be anything left tomorrow windwards wave
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221. WWPR
I'm a bit scared about the Hurricane season here in Puerto Rico this year. Just a Tropical Wave, and I've been without light or water since 5am this morning. :(
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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