Tropical Storm Barry Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters this afternoon indicates that Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1000 feet as high as 47 mph, which implies winds of at least 40 mph at the surface, using the usual 10% reduction rule for winds measured at 1000 feet. Barry has a small but growing area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are steadily showing more organization this afternoon, and low-level spiral bands have begun to appear. Wind shear was a moderate 15 knots on Wednesday afternoon, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. Barry is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like Barry and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect Barry will have time to attain sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon near Veracruz, Mexico. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Barry, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a weak or strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of Barry's rains from reaching the U.S. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Barry at 12:40 pm EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Barry's place in history
Barry is the second named storm of June 2013, and its formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968. The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season, though.

The formation of Tropical Storm Andrea and now Tropical Storm Barry in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been sixteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to six in the nineteen-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 - 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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And for all those who have enough from unusual tropical weather, have a look at New Zealand right now:

Winter blast: 'Quite ugly' night to come
By Kieran Campbell
Updated 11:25 AM Thursday Jun 20, 2013

The widely anticipated polar blast has brought heavy snow to central parts of the South Island, with meteorologists warning "the storm is still to come".
Heavy snow warnings remain in place for parts of Marlborough, Canterbury, Southland and central and eastern Otago.


"It's a wild world ..."

Good night for now!

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Satellite image of Barry from earlier:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Looks like Barry is organizing may become a 60mph storm.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The coordinates for the center of Barry according to the 8pm update from the NHC:



Either Barry is very unorganized or the center has jumped north in a more centralized location.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
on a side note TS barry this sure pass Tropical Storm Bret in 2005 Tropical Storm Bret had olny 40 mph when it made land fall TS barry now has 45mph winds and may get a little stronger still
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New bursts of convection around the center of Barry.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Tazmanian:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.


this may get two 50mph may 55 or 60mph

Its 50 or 60 mph...no 55 mph Taz.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
RIP James Gandolfini. He was truly great as Tony Soprano.
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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.


this may get two 50mph or 60mph
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Uhh, news coming in from India are really bad!

With embedded video from rescue operations because of landslides: Rain horror unfolds in hills, 182 dead, thousands missing
Agencies and HTC, Hindustan Times Dehradun, June 19, 2013


Source

Edit: Several visitors from Mumbai are safe in flood-ravaged Uttarakhand
Bella Jaisinghani & Sandhya Nair, TNN | Jun 20, 2013, 04.48 AM IST

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Let's see if the plane can reach it before it makes landfall.It will be a close call.


Probably will be too late, but very close at least. Wish they would push the time up a few hours.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
700 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Let's see if the plane can reach it before it makes landfall.It will be a close call.


I think so , either stalled or a slight drift to the NW at the moment.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Lots of new convection is firing around the center. Barry doesn't seem to be strengthening quickly, but it's at least gradual. Movement speed is still at a crawl it seems.



Let's see if the plane can reach it before it makes landfall.It will be a close call.
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306. txjac
Quoting pcola57:







Nice ...hope some of that comes my way.
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Lots of new convection is firing around the center. Barry doesn't seem to be strengthening quickly, but it's at least gradual. Movement speed is still at a crawl it seems.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Barry looking impressive this evening.
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Tony Soprano has passed,James Gandolfini in Italy
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128642






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Quoting gator23:
Wait until next week when people in here are calling it a bust again
there could be 200 storms and if none hit the CONUS some on here would call it a bust
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300. VR46L
Quoting barbamz:


Yeah, you saw it first VR, I can testify .. :)


LOL !!!

Yeah , I might have mentioned the potential Fuiji dance on Monday afternoon . but its the CMC so Not holding my breath !

Anyway its near 1.00am Good night folks!
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Quoting Grothar:


LOL. How you doing Taz?




doing vary well and you?
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Latest on the tropics

Adv. #10
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Tazmanian:
i saw that 1st!




LOL. How you doing Taz?
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AL022013 - Tropical Storm BARRY


click image, then click on loop to zoom



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128642
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Here’s a snippet from the National Weather Service forecast discussion for the Fairbanks area:

…REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS FOLLOWED…ALL OF THEM SPELL EXTREME HEAT FOR NORTHERN ALASKA ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID RANGE MODELS. THERE IS SOME DEVIATION IN TERMS OF HOW HOT…BUT RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE MONTH ACCORDING TO ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS.

For Fairbanks and other areas in northern Alaska, that means temperatures in the high-80s and even low-90s, compared to normal maximum temperatures in the high 60s and low 70s.

Alaska’s heat wave isn’t simply a one-off, freak event. Since the mid-20th Century, the average temperature of the Earth has increased by about 0.6°C (1.1°F), driven in large measure by our emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. But the warming hasn’t been uniform. In fact, the far north has been warming faster than anywhere else, with the Arctic heating up twice as fast as the global average.
I am really curious as to what the polar ice cap will look like come September
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i saw that 1st!


Quoting Grothar:
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Quoting VR46L:


They have been showing that for two days ... will be interesting if it happens .. Have allot of affection for EPAC storms as most dont bring devastation and look sweet


Yeah, you saw it first VR, I can testify .. :)
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Quoting VR46L:


They have been showing that for two days ... will be interesting if it happens .. Have allot of affection for EPAC storms as most dont bring devastation and look sweet


Those open water systems are the best to track.
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291. VR46L
Quoting Civicane49:


It would be interesting to see how both of these systems would interact each other. GFS and CMC show that both could perform a Fujiwhara effect.





They have been showing that for two days ... will be interesting if it happens .. Have allot of affection for EPAC storms as most dont bring devastation and look sweet
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Brownsville
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128642
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:
My take on Barry, for what little it's worth, is this. It seems to be taking it's time, possibly slowing further. If if gets 24 hours over water, I think it will morph into Hurr. Barry.

It seems to be wanting to turn more NW now. I wouldn't rule out it coming in at or above Tampico, Mexico. However, it could get worse. It might be trying a slowdown, tight-righthand-curl into a more central position in the BOC and maybe a tight little curly-Q before returning NW-ward. If the tea leaves bear this out and the H-pressure dissipates in the north a bit, that could make a testier storm than expected before landfall.

Another matter is that it seems to have started funneling moisture into itself from the SE, which would enable a faster buildup in strength if it does not hit land soon enough to counter that. With such high air temps to the NW & high water temps, this bears watching....just in case. Maybe it will spead up again, simply hurry into landfall, and water the corn.


Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 775
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Wait until next week when people in here are calling it a bust again
Quoting Forsaken:
Looking like a Barry active season in the Atlantic so far.
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Near Veracruz, Mexico


EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.174N 96.093W
Date: Wed, 19 Jun 2013 23:00:00 UTC

Winds: NNW (340°) at 25.1 kt gusting to 28.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.75 in and falling
Air Temperature: 79.5 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F

Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 775
Looking like a Barry active season in the Atlantic so far.
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SIMPSON ET AL. 2643
q 1997 American Meteorological Society

Mesoscale Interactions in Tropical Cyclone Genesis


J. SIMPSON
Earth Sciences Directorate, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
E. RITCHIE
Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
G. J. HOLLAND
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia
J. HALVERSON*
Visiting Fellow, University Space Research Association, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
S. STEWART
NEXRAD OSF/OTB, National Weather Service, NOAA, Norman, Oklahoma
(Manuscript received 21 November 1996, in final form 13 February 1997)
ABSTRACT
With the multitude of cloud clusters over tropical oceans, it has been perplexing that so few develop into
tropical cyclones. The authors postulate that a major obstacle has been the complexity of scale interactions,
particularly those on the mesoscale, which have only recently been observable. While there are well-known
climatological requirements, these are by no means sufficient.
A major reason for this rarity is the essentially stochastic nature of the mesoscale interactions that precede
and contribute to cyclone development. Observations exist for only a few forming cases. In these, the moist
convection in the preformation environment is organized into mesoscale convective systems, each of which have
associated mesoscale potential vortices in the midlevels. Interactions between these systems may lead to merger,
growth to the surface, and development of both the nascent eye and inner rainbands of a tropical cyclone. The
process is essentially stochastic, but the degree of stochasticity can be reduced by the continued interaction of
the mesoscale systems or by environmental influences. For example a monsoon trough provides a region of
reduced deformation radius, which substantially improves the efficiency of mesoscale vortex interactions and
the amplitude of the merged vortices. Further, a strong monsoon trough provides a vertical wind shear that
enables long-lived midlevel mesoscale vortices that are able to maintain, or even redevelop, the associated
convective system.
The authors develop this hypothesis by use of a detailed case study of the formation of Tropical Cyclone
Oliver observed during TOGA COARE (1993). In this case, two dominant mesoscale vortices interacted with
a monsoon trough to separately produce a nascent eye and a major rainband. The eye developed on the edge
of the major convective system, and the associated atmospheric warming was provided almost entirely by moist
processes in the upper atmosphere, and by a combination of latent heating and adiabatic subsidence in the lower
and middle atmosphere. The importance of mesoscale interact
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128642
My take on Barry, for what little it's worth, is this. It seems to be taking it's time, possibly slowing further. If if gets 24 hours over water, I think it will morph into Hurr. Barry.

It seems to be wanting to turn more NW now. I wouldn't rule out it coming in at or above Tampico, Mexico. However, it could get worse. It might be trying a slowdown, tight-righthand-curl into a more central position in the BOC and maybe a tight little curly-Q before returning NW-ward. If the tea leaves bear this out and the H-pressure dissipates in the north a bit, that could make a testier storm than expected before landfall.

Another matter is that it seems to have started funneling moisture into itself from the SE, which would enable a faster buildup in strength if it does not hit land soon enough to counter that. With such high air temps to the NW & high water temps, this bears watching....just in case. Maybe it will speed up again, simply hurry into landfall, and water the corn.
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Quoting kingcane:
Thanks Mississippi for the explanation! Is that upper levvel trough going to stick around for a while?


That particular upper level trough may not be around after the next couple of days, but the STJ will still be screaming through the area for at least the next 5 days.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific is likely to become a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts very slowly west-northwest. Another area of disturbed weather well to the east will have to be monitored in the medium range.





It would be interesting to see how both of these systems would interact each other. GFS and CMC show that both could perform a Fujiwhara effect.



Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Patrap:
San Juan
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI





San Juan received around an inch but other areas to the east got over 3 inches.
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The Denver/Boulder NWS just posted the survey for the Tornado at DIA yesterday.
Check it out here. Link
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Encouraged that I see no significant falling barometric pressures on the NDBC reporting sites in P.R. and V.I.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
The tropical wave over Puerto Rico is on the southeast flank of an upper level trough. This is enhancing the upper level divergence in the area and helping to fire off convection along the wave axis. The spin seen on radar is a decaying mid-level rotation that developed in the convection. There is currently nothing worth mentioning at the surface and shear along with land should act to keep the wave from developing.



Imagine if the TUTT Trough is not in place allowing the wave to have better conditions.
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Nice mesoscale convective vortex there
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San Juan
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128642
This area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific is likely to become a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts very slowly west-northwest. Another area of disturbed weather well to the east will have to be monitored in the medium range.



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Party pooper with your facts

Quoting MississippiWx:
The tropical wave over Puerto Rico is on the southeast flank of an upper level trough. This is enhancing the upper level divergence in the area and helping to fire off convection along the wave axis. The spin seen on radar is a decaying mid-level rotation that developed in the convection. There is currently nothing worth mentioning at the surface and shear along with land should act to keep the wave from developing.

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Thanks Mississippi for the explanation! Is that upper levvel trough going to stick around for a while?
Quoting MississippiWx:
The tropical wave over Puerto Rico is on the southeast flank of an upper level trough. This is enhancing the upper level divergence in the area and helping to fire off convection along the wave axis. The spin seen on radar is a decaying mid-level rotation that developed in the convection. There is currently nothing worth mentioning at the surface and shear along with land should act to keep the wave from developing.

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.