Tropical Storm Barry Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters this afternoon indicates that Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1000 feet as high as 47 mph, which implies winds of at least 40 mph at the surface, using the usual 10% reduction rule for winds measured at 1000 feet. Barry has a small but growing area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are steadily showing more organization this afternoon, and low-level spiral bands have begun to appear. Wind shear was a moderate 15 knots on Wednesday afternoon, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. Barry is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like Barry and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect Barry will have time to attain sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon near Veracruz, Mexico. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Barry, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a weak or strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of Barry's rains from reaching the U.S. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Barry at 12:40 pm EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Barry's place in history
Barry is the second named storm of June 2013, and its formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968. The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season, though.

The formation of Tropical Storm Andrea and now Tropical Storm Barry in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been sixteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to six in the nineteen-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 - 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...BARRY POISED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Are any of the models doing anything with it yet? And if you know, what model has handled/forecast Barry the best?
THE GFS.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


PR Tropical Wave might bear watching


Are any of the models doing anything with it yet? And if you know, what model has handled/forecast Barry the best?
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I was just on here yesterday and saw nothing but insults flying in a climate change discussion so please someone enlighten me on the recent changes that happened since last night..I dont know why you would be amazed Hydrus..odd thing to say..
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:


That is not a dumb question at all, it is most common for a center reformation to occur in weak storms, however they can occur in some moderate to strong tropical storms under unique conditions.

Now the reason why a center may relocate if it is displaced away from the convection and vort, once it is displaced a new center inside the convection and perhaps closest to the convection may form. The thunderstorms can also act to pull the center towards them, in an engulfing manner.

A great example, was Tropical Storm Andrea before it was designated a tropical cyclone, it had multiple centers of circulation, and if you were watching you may have seen one or two head west into Yucatan and then eventually the dominant one formed bringing the whole convection and thunderstorms NE.

- FIC
Thanks for your reply. Very well put.
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Quoting Chicklit:

I read somewhere here recently there is debate over when the dust helps or inhibits storm formation. Sorry don't have the reference.


I would surmise it's more dependent on the tropospheric level it's found in. For example, a layer of warm air aloft at, say, 700 mb, would be considered a capping inversion, and would probably be similar to what we experience over the plains during severe weather season. From our understanding of the Saharan Air Layer, it's pretty much a warm layer of dust/aerosols, right?

I guess the real question would be, what are the inhibitive/supportive [convective] properties of those aerosols, and how do they affect tropical cyclone formation and intensification from African easterly waves?
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Quoting Chicklit:

I read somewhere here recently there is debate over when the dust helps or inhibits storm formation. Sorry don't have the reference.


Hey Chicklit..
Interesting..
I thought SAL was an inhibitor but if they are debating on it then I may just learn something.. :p

PS..
Hope your exams go well for you.. :)
You mentioned what they were for before but I've forgotten..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
Quoting hydrus:
You have been here a long time, and you are aware of the recent changes here on the Doctors blog..I am a little amazed that you are so upset about this..Its not personal NC.


what recent changes?? and I havent been on here lately like I use to..I have been popping in and out
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Quoting pcola57:


Here's the current SAL 19N81W..
It has been my impression that timing and duration are what matters most..
But don't take my word on it as I'm no Met.. :)


I read somewhere here recently there is debate over when the dust helps or inhibits storm formation. Sorry don't have the reference. Anyway, it's been a long day. First exam was tonight. Hope there's not too much flooding or any landslides in Mexico from Barry.
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:


I have a more logical idea

How about the Hurricane Hunters pick you up from your location and drop you with a dropsonde into Barry's circulation? (smiley face)


LOL
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Quoting 19N81W:
i have been told the dust is normal this year...I am seeing lots of it so far....does anyone think even with the insurance companies er forcasters saying its going to be a busy season they may have to bring the numbers down a bit for the early part at least? i know we have "officially" had two tropical storms but not much to speak of....on the grand scale(sorry to those who maybe impacted) the dust may inhibit the large scale storms that start from waves in the atlantic....just been looking at not only what i see overhead but whats in the atlantic..


Here's the current SAL 19N81W..
It has been my impression that timing and duration are what matters most..
But don't take my word on it as I'm no Met.. :)

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
Quoting 19N81W:


what are you talking about up there in old miss? what you dont have? lol it was just a comment you can post something useful if you want in regard


Okay, something useful:

1. I don't see anything too out of the norm here:



2. Looks like the typical waves of SAL that move through the MDR this time of the year with areas of increased moisture in between.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284


PR Tropical Wave might bear watching
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Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

Click Image for Loop,then Click Loop to ZOOM




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129838
Quoting daddyjames:


There is always a chance . . .

. . . but you have better odds at the royal family of Saudi Arabia taking vows of poverty, and handing over their vast wealth to you.

1 in 10 ;)


Ooops, those where the odds for me :D
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Quoting 19N81W:
i have been told the dust is normal this year...I am seeing lots of it so far....does anyone think even with the insurance companies er forcasters saying its going to be a busy season they may have to bring the numbers down a bit for the early part at least? i know we have "officially" had two tropical storms but not much to speak of....on the grand scale(sorry to those who maybe impacted) the dust may inhibit the large scale storms that start from waves in the atlantic....just been looking at not only what i see overhead but whats in the atlantic..


Will find out the next time all the forecasters update their numbers - which is the 1st of August. A bit difficult to say, as some models are calling for a flip in El Nino conditions - which has not materialized.
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Tropical Storm BARRY Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT32 KNHC 192353
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
700 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO TUXPAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129838
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
Quoting MississippiWx:


Seems like you are on here every year talking about how much dust you have...lol.


what are you talking about up there in old miss? what you dont have? lol it was just a comment you can post something useful if you want in regard
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129838
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129838
Quoting luvtogolf:


You mean that there is no chance that Barry won't turn around and hit the Cayman's?


There is always a chance . . .

. . . but you have better odds at the royal family of Saudi Arabia taking vows of poverty, and handing over their vast wealth to you.

1 in 10 ;)
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Believe the low level center was hiding while the mid-level center was faking us out again. Looks like a large blow up of thunderstorms is finally forming over the center.



Could very well be,NHC usually gets it right.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129838
Quoting 19N81W:
i have been told the dust is normal this year...I am seeing lots of it so far....does anyone think even with the insurance companies er forcasters saying its going to be a busy season they may have to bring the numbers down a bit for the early part at least? i know we have "officially" had two tropical storms but not much to speak of....on the grand scale(sorry to those who maybe impacted) the dust may inhibit the large scale storms that start from waves in the atlantic....just been looking at not only what i see overhead but whats in the atlantic..


Seems like you are on here every year talking about how much dust you have...lol.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting daddyjames:


Simple . . .

It's a small, and not pretty, storm - no DOOM factor.
It's track is pretty well-established - nothing to debate
There's no chance of it coming to the United States - (see
DOOM factor above)
And a lot of people are exhausted from the stimulating
discussions held yesterday.

Good evening.


You mean that there is no chance that Barry won't turn around and hit the Cayman's?
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Don't know if this forecast is still valid.
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TS Barry Unenhanced IR Loop

click image for loop


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129838
i have been told the dust is normal this year...I am seeing lots of it so far....does anyone think even with the insurance companies er forcasters saying its going to be a busy season they may have to bring the numbers down a bit for the early part at least? i know we have "officially" had two tropical storms but not much to speak of....on the grand scale(sorry to those who maybe impacted) the dust may inhibit the large scale storms that start from waves in the atlantic....just been looking at not only what i see overhead but whats in the atlantic..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Articuno:


School. :P

I was on a few days ago, guess you didn't see me :P


Hey Articuno...

Are you any of those guys?
Just saw your profile pic.

Reminds me of those days.

I remember seeing you here for the winter. .. remember the Saturn snowbust...?
Gotta credit Wash so much for that.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Wow! Tropical Storm Barry looks really nice its getting better organized by the hour. I would not be surprised if Barry makes land fall as 50 or 60 mph Tropical Storm early Thursday Morning with flooding rains and mudslides.
The storm also has a nice building outflow.

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Is a HH flight on the way?
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Some twisting and turning at 21.5N 95.6W ?
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Seems legit.


LOL..
I think so too. Double fugiwara.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting hydrus:
Where ya been...I saw you post 100,000 years ago....or there bouts..:)


School, and well interest towards other things :P

I was on a few days ago, guess you didn't see me :P
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I thought Sammy Hagar worked there or something LOL

Sure looks like a jog to the north! And convection booking in parts. Am about to go to bed, will be wondering what Barry will be like when I get up.

FIUStormchaser....some aren't interested if not threatning the CONUS. I'm just pleased we've had a few things to watch already.

tropicswatcherPR said 1st hurricane July 18th...that's my hope as is my bday..how cool would it be to watch the first hurricane for it?! Though, sorry, but would be happy with a well-formed fish storm and nothing threatening anyone for my bday!

And as for Barry 'Manilow'...oh no no no. My mom was a big fan, and would always play it loud enough for me to hear when I was going to bed as a kid. It obviously sank itself in my mind at night while sleeping, as I still know all his 70's/early 80's songs by heart!

Hoping to NOT have any stuck in my head while trying to get to sleep, 'night all!


My mom did the same just the names are different, Bobby Vinton, Ray Charles, Frank Sinatra, Eddie Arnold,Johnny Cash,McGuire Sisters just to name a few.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I thought the comments would be racking up faster with a tropical storm in the Gulf!
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
You would think the blog wouldn't be this quiet when a Tropical Cyclone is making landfall in the Atlantic..... I've seen more traffic on here from a GFS model 15 days out.....





Simple . . .

It's a small, and not pretty, storm - no DOOM factor.
It's track is pretty well-established - nothing to debate
There's no chance of it coming to the United States - (see
DOOM factor above)
And a lot of people are exhausted from the stimulating
discussions held yesterday.

Good evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Believe the low level center was hiding while the mid-level center was faking us out again. Looks like a large blow up of thunderstorms is finally forming over the center.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Seems the Mod Squad is active tonight!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Can't translate 55 mph into kt.
45 kt...50 mph
50 kt...60 mph


47kt?... ~55 mph...err. failed.


I thought Sammy Hagar worked there or something LOL

Sure looks like a jog to the north! And convection booking in parts. Am about to go to bed, will be wondering what Barry will be like when I get up.

FIUStormchaser....some aren't interested if not threatning the CONUS. I'm just pleased we've had a few things to watch already.

tropicswatcherPR said 1st hurricane July 18th...that's my hope as is my bday..how cool would it be to watch the first hurricane for it?! Though, sorry, but would be happy with a well-formed fish storm and nothing threatening anyone for my bday!

And as for Barry 'Manilow'...oh no no no. My mom was a big fan, and would always play it loud enough for me to hear when I was going to bed as a kid. It obviously sank itself in my mind at night while sleeping, as I still know all his 70's/early 80's songs by heart!

Hoping to NOT have any stuck in my head while trying to get to sleep, 'night all!
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380. vis0

Quoting weatherh98:


It would be nice to get a plane in there for accuracy.... So we can serve everyone crow Link
Not a good idea: Lets see which HurrChaser builds a drone & flies it into a LQ TS.

Of course not a good idea and hopefully some laws will be in place (written to 4 senators)  as drones are dangerous to plane flights. Which is why i bring it up otherwise it goes under the radar and when it happens people say, "oh, why weren't there any laws to prevent it".
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379. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
9:00 AM JST June 20 2013
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) near 15.7N 117.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.9N 116.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
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Ok, relevant post.

I notice the storm got named after all.

I had seen it was forecast to get upgraded earlier today, so I guess that's not surprising.

Looks a deal north of the forecast presently, but probably not a big deal, since it's still weak.

Rainfall obviously main threat due to slow movement.
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Comment 374

At least i tried right? Thanks for the explanation, i learned something new about history today.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
Quoting Matt74:
Fairly new hear and i learn alot from you guys. This is probably a dumb question but is it more common for a center reformation in weaker or stronger storms or does it not matter? tia


That is not a dumb question at all, it is most common for a center reformation to occur in weak storms, however they can occur in some moderate to strong tropical storms under unique conditions.

Now the reason why a center may relocate if it is displaced away from the convection and vort, once it is displaced a new center inside the convection and perhaps closest to the convection may form. The thunderstorms can also act to pull the center towards them, in an engulfing manner.

A great example, was Tropical Storm Andrea before it was designated a tropical cyclone, it had multiple centers of circulation, and if you were watching you may have seen one or two head west into Yucatan and then eventually the dominant one formed bringing the whole convection and thunderstorms NE.

- FIC
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
Quoting Tazmanian:
i no the mods wont re move this






press lord in a dress
Reported.....jk...really jk..:)
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Sweet! My forecast on TD 2/TS Barry I put out at 2 AM this morning looks like it is verifying pretty accurately both trackwise and intensity-wise....
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Adding to post 366..
55, 95, 135, 170 mph winds don't work, you'll never see them in NHC advisories

135 mph was used before but then changed to 130 mph or 115 kt.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Mid level circulation fakeout or a relocation north?

Only the Campeche Crawler knows!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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