Tropical Storm Barry Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters this afternoon indicates that Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1000 feet as high as 47 mph, which implies winds of at least 40 mph at the surface, using the usual 10% reduction rule for winds measured at 1000 feet. Barry has a small but growing area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are steadily showing more organization this afternoon, and low-level spiral bands have begun to appear. Wind shear was a moderate 15 knots on Wednesday afternoon, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. Barry is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like Barry and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect Barry will have time to attain sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon near Veracruz, Mexico. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Barry, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a weak or strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of Barry's rains from reaching the U.S. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Barry at 12:40 pm EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Barry's place in history
Barry is the second named storm of June 2013, and its formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968. The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season, though.

The formation of Tropical Storm Andrea and now Tropical Storm Barry in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been sixteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to six in the nineteen-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 - 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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471. vis0

Quoting Patrap (MSG#263):(vis0 edited Patrap's org img to cut KB load)

Ml-d stands for "microLow-device" is uses micro waves BUT NOT AS YOU know it, to generate what i call intrÆ sounds (Æ as only readable via H & He's twists within sub-atomic levels via what should be the opposing energy as to the mantel's molten iron. That opposing energy i state is in a static form and should have a "footprint" as if silicon.)

In GIF (below) ml-d area Barry is not in "? area" & TD over
PR is not yet in AOI area.



The right blinking area/island is Puerto Rico.

The Left Blinking area is the Northern coast of
Mexico to Texas's southern border onto the Gulf.

One has to have AT LEAST a third of a rotation,
be it Horizontal (to surface) rotation i.e. TS, Hurricane,
 (tornado) or Vertical Rotation TW, ~TD,  (wall cloud)
under the ml-d's AOI for the ml-d's settings to begin
influencing the sinking pressure vortex. (presently settings influence  that outermost ml-d ring at 0.67%, try to read my confusing blog for specifics)

The ml-d's Area Of Influence (AOI)  is shown in
the oblate area that is a negative film colour. One is
only seeing the lower third of that area.

LINK TO ENTIRE ml-d AOI AREA map (my Tinypic
public album link)

The SOLID BROWN ring you see is a wide on top
to thin as one lowers, strong vertical HIGH (BUT, over
salt water the HIGH's vertical shape is inverted). The HIGH nature generates in response to the ml-d's persistent ml-d vortex LOW settings, hence stronger winds/tighter ISOs over that HIGH's area(s) than expected when natural weather trends pass by, as out west.

If natural weather trend's surrounding the TS seem hostile to TS,  then as the ml-d is presently set, once a third of a spinning TS area enters the ml-d AOI you'll see a tug-of-war as if the TS's near-by surrounding weather goes from unfriendly to friendly, to n fro.

Then an EVEN MORE UNBELIEVABLE statement, low sounds
between the ml-d's area and vortex sing to each other and change that area's weather to a more favorable for developement area. Now since the ml-d settings are on "low influence" then its a push-pull where depending on the strength of the NATURAL TREND the ml-d can lose the fight but you'll still see some weird weather actions.
Reads as weird, just as my paper in College stated planets communicate with each other via a type of frequency in 1980, jump to ~1990 and a scientist proved it by her experiments, that plants communicate to each other.

From 1970s-2009 never had the ml-d ON for more than 3 weeks consecutively, nor 2-3 months over one calendar year.

In 2010 began to leave the ml-d ON year round, BUT in 2010 i took the ml-d to Puerto Rico for ~4 months of that year, see my blog for precise times.

Therefore to be totally correct, the ml-d has been ON in ONLY zip 10016 (NYc)  since ~August of 2010, once in a while its OFF for a few days (see blog for precise dates) and/or i carry a portable version which uses the body's energy field.
,peace
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
yes....I don't think I have anyone on ignore.


LOL - feeling a bit insecure? I don't think you can - I mean, other than you noticing that they never respond to any of your posts.

I have about 8, most of those are probably old handles that have been perma-banned or no longer post.

Your not one of them - yet, depends if SA wins tomorrow. ;)
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Yep. I do not watch NBA Basketball at all, maybe 6 games all year and those were when the Spurs played...Spurs have a local kid from San Diego State University on the roster, who now starts for the Spurs...Kawhi Leonard. I do enjoy college basketball.


I'm pretty much the same as far as following it - however, originally from SoFl. So GO HEAT!
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Quoting daddyjames:


@HurricaneHunterJoe Thought you wanted to see how many peeps ignore you, not how many you are ignoring - right?
yes....I don't think I have anyone on ignore.
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Quoting daddyjames:


:P And you're rooting for San Antonio correct?


Yep. I do not watch NBA Basketball at all, maybe 6 games all year and those were when the Spurs played...Spurs have a local kid from San Diego State University on the roster, who now starts for the Spurs...Kawhi Leonard. I do enjoy college basketball.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Pretty sure the actual Jason doesn't come here anymore, and it's just people acting like him for the lulz.


Well the "new" Jason liked to a video on youtube recently posted by the "old" Jason.
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464. beell
Quoting Naga5000:


Here is an interesting update from NASA on SAL and their continuing studies. Link


A great follow-on post/article.

"...the southern boundary of this hot desert air essentially acts like a front whose attendant wind patterns are a major source of the African waves that are precursors to storm formation..."

And a region where an ageostrophic circulation could enhance upward motion/convection south of the "boundary".

Thanks!

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Vera Cruz Buoy

Continuous Winds
TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
10:00 pm NNW ( 332 deg ) 31.1 kts
9:50 pm NNW ( 335 deg ) 28.9 kts
9:40 pm NNW ( 333 deg ) 28.9 kts
9:30 pm NNW ( 339 deg ) 29.9 kts
9:20 pm NNW ( 337 deg ) 28.0 kts
9:10 pm NNW ( 332 deg ) 24.1 kts

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(CDT) GDR GST
9:19 pm NNW ( 340 deg ) 36.9 kts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Pretty sure the actual Jason doesn't come here anymore, and it's just people acting like him for the lulz.


Lol. Incorrect. He's on here every day. This is his blog.

Edit: Difference is he's very well-behaved. We should let it lie.

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Pretty sure the actual Jason doesn't come here anymore, and it's just people acting like him for the lulz.
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Quoting SLU:


With the GFS indicating that the equatorial ridge will lift northwards in a couple of weeks resulting in a deep layer easterly flow near Africa and surface pressures having dropped in the MDR in the last week, this isn't farfetched at all.

Not to mention the strong MJO pulse.



What the huge Low Pressure in the middle of the Atlantic?
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Try this link


@HurricaneHunterJoe Thought you wanted to see how many peeps ignore you, not how many you are ignoring - right?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
LOL I was on for sure last night...j/k...... ; )


:P And you're rooting for San Antonio correct?
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AmeriCares & Portlight partnering to help Oklahoma disabled

June 17, 2013 – AmeriCares and Portlight Strategies, Inc. are partnering to help disabled Oklahoma residents affected by the recent tornadoes. AmeriCares has awarded a $25,000 grant to the Charleston, S.C.-based nonprofit organization to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the recent storms. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days.

Children and adults with disabilities are among the most vulnerable after a disaster. Often the equipment they rely on for mobility is damaged or destroyed, limiting their independence,” said AmeriCares Vice President of Emergency Response Garrett Ingoglia. “By providing wheelchairs and other medical equipment we will help dozens of tornado survivors recover faster.”


The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy.

“Our partnership with AmeriCares enables us to streamline requests from tornado survivors with disabilities and expeditiously fill those needs,”
said Paul Timmons, chairman of Portlight Strategies’ board of directors.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Quoting beell:
Not too tough of a read. The "conventional" findings regarding SAL and TC activity. The leading (western) and southern edges of the SAL appear to be not as detrimental.

THE IMPACT OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ON ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY

The SAL appears to suppress Atlantic TC activity in three main ways. First, it introduces dry, stable air into the storm, which promotes convectively driven downdrafts in the TC. Second, the SAL's midlevel easterly jet can dramatically enhance the local vertical wind shear. Third, the SAL enhances the preexisting trade wind inversion in the Atlantic, which acts to stabilize the environment.


Here is an interesting update from NASA on SAL and their continuing studies. Link
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There is still a chance for Barry to strengthen a little more in the next 6 hours before making landfall by early tomorrow morning.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
454. SLU
Quoting ncstorm:
not too far out and it has been showing this scenario for at least three runs now..









With the GFS indicating that the equatorial ridge will lift northwards in a couple of weeks resulting in a deep layer easterly flow near Africa and surface pressures having dropped in the MDR in the last week, this isn't farfetched at all.

Not to mention the strong MJO pulse.



Even the GFS ensembles agree on that. The MDR will be primed for development from early July. The only things that will hinder development will be the SAL and dry air.



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Quoting daddyjames:


I thought so, or maybe I am confusing your handle with someone else.
LOL I was on for sure last night...j/k...... ; )
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452. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Is there a way to see how many users have you on ignore? I bet I have a lot,but not sure why. I don't think im too disgusting!....LOL


Try this link
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45571
451. beell
Quoting daddyjames:


Your link just brings us back to this blog - I assume that is from an old blog of Dr. JM?


Saw that after posting. Fixed! Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
Not too tough of a read. The "conventional" findings regarding SAL and TC activity. The leading (western) and southern edges of the SAL appear to be not as detrimental.

THE IMPACT OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ON ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY


The SAL appears to suppress Atlantic TC activity in three main ways. First, it introduces dry, stable air into the storm, which promotes convectively driven downdrafts in the TC. Second, the SALs midlevel easterly jet can dramatically enhance the local vertical wind shear. Third, the SAL enhances the preexisting trade wind inversion in the Atlantic, which acts to stabilize the environment.


Thank you very much for that beell..


Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I always thought shear and sahara sand =bad for storm formation, but im not so sure anymore


Hey HurricaneHunterJoe..
Looks like beell nailed it for us!!
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Is there a way to see how many users have you on ignore? I bet I have a lot,but not sure why. I don't think im too disgusting!....LOL
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Good Night Peeps, Was 84.8 here today, Stay Safe All ......
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I was?


I thought so, or maybe I am confusing your handle with someone else.
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Quoting beell:
Not too tough of a read. The "conventional" findings regarding SAL and TC activity. The leading (western) and southern edges of the SAL appear to be not as detrimental.

The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

The SAL appears to suppress Atlantic TC activity in three main ways. First, it introduces dry, stable air into the storm, which promotes convectively driven downdrafts in the TC. Second, the SAL’s midlevel easterly jet can dramatically enhance the local vertical wind shear. Third, the SAL enhances the preexisting trade wind inversion in the Atlantic, which acts to stabilize the environment.


Your link just brings us back to this blog - I assume that is from an old blog of Dr. JM?
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Quoting daddyjames:


Yeah, he ws on last night - wait, so were you ;)


I was?
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444. Skyepony (Mod)
BAMD has out done all the gfs ensembles on Barry..

GFDL, OFCL, LGEM, HWRF, GFS doing a little better than the rest. Overall the models are half decent with worst 3 day error average 80-120nm.
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Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..none of us have permission to link anything if you are using that excuse..your discussion I believe was about vocabulary, I think..yawn..but was it on topic??

anyway good night everyone..no need stirring the pot here..nothing cooking good anyway..


Part of it - pretty much anything ws up for grabs, although we did veer off perhaps a little bit. LOL.

Have a good night.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


As bad as that, then?


Unfortunately, yes.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10401
441. beell
Not too tough of a read. The "conventional" findings regarding SAL and TC activity. The leading (western) and southern edges of the SAL appear to be not as detrimental.

THE IMPACT OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ON ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY

(click the "PDF" link for full article)

The SAL appears to suppress Atlantic TC activity in three main ways. First, it introduces dry, stable air into the storm, which promotes convectively driven downdrafts in the TC. Second, the SAL's midlevel easterly jet can dramatically enhance the local vertical wind shear. Third, the SAL enhances the preexisting trade wind inversion in the Atlantic, which acts to stabilize the environment.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Anyone notice Jason is back? LOL


Cue the Friday the 13th music with the hissing! Don't link to hockey masks!
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Quoting Dakster:


I'd be banned if I told you.


As bad as that, then?
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Quoting Dakster:


I'd be banned if I told you.

^ This.
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Quoting daddyjames:


I don't know, maybe this?

No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.

Also, although heated at times, I did not necessarily see (m)any insults flying around - at least not in the discussions I was involved in.


LOL..none of us have permission to link anything if you are using that excuse..your discussion I believe was about vocabulary, I think..yawn..but was it on topic??

anyway good night everyone..no need stirring the pot here..nothing cooking good anyway..
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not too far out and it has been showing this scenario for at least three runs now..







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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Anyone notice Jason is back? LOL


Yeah, he ws on last night - wait, so were you ;)
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Quoting pcola57:


Hey Chicklit..
Interesting..
I thought SAL was an inhibitor but if they are debating on it then I may just learn something.. :p

PS..
Hope your exams go well for you.. :)
You mentioned what they were for before but I've forgotten..


I always thought shear and sahara sand =bad for storm formation, but im not so sure anymore
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Quoting ncstorm:
I was just on here yesterday and saw nothing but insults flying in a climate change discussion so please someone enlighten me on the recent changes that happened since last night..I dont know why you would be amazed Hydrus..odd thing to say..


I don't know, maybe this?

No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.

Also, although heated at times, I did not necessarily see (m)any insults flying around - at least not in the discussions I was involved in.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


What's the worst vandalism you've seen on the wikpedia tropical pages?


I'd be banned if I told you.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10401
Quoting KoritheMan:


LOL


Anyone notice Jason is back? LOL
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I would surmise it's more dependent on the tropospheric level it's found in. For example, a layer of warm air aloft at, say, 700 mb, would be considered a capping inversion, and would probably be similar to what we experience over the plains during severe weather season. From our understanding of the Saharan Air Layer, it's pretty much a warm layer of dust/aerosols, right?

I guess the real question would be, what are the inhibitive/supportive [convective] properties of those aerosols, and how do they affect tropical cyclone formation and intensify from African easterly waves?


I agree that it may be dependent upon the level of the atmosphere . . . and it may very complicated.

Does the dry air cause the inhibition of clouds, or does the particulate matter provide the nucleus for condensation of water vapor?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Only a few thousand people have viewed the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season wiki page, compared to the >12,000 during Andrea. I guess a lot of people do only care about the U.S. lol.

Vandalism hasn't been too bad yet. Yet.



What's the worst vandalism you've seen on the wikpedia tropical pages?
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Quoting Patrap:
Brownsville
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

You changed your logo.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Are any of the models doing anything with it yet? And if you know, what model has handled/forecast Barry the best?


The Human, NHC Model.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10401
Brownsville
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Only a few thousand people have viewed the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season wiki page, compared to the ~12,000 during Andrea. I guess a lot of people do only care about the U.S. lol.

Vandalism hasn't been too bad yet. Yet.

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424. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is a HH flight on the way?

Not til morning.

Dvorak has the scene a curved band for the last six hours. 1001mb, CI is 2.9
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...BARRY POISED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...
10:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 19
Location: 19.6°N 95.8°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING.
LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
EARLIER ARICRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AROUND 0000
UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT ON THE 0000 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AND WAS BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA
AND A 33-KT SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATION AT SACRIFICE ISLAND...WHICH
AT THE TIME...WAS STILL LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE CENTER AND
STRONGEST WINDS. A FEW OTHER OBSERVING SITES IN THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN THE 32 TO 38 KT RANGE SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

BARRY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT.
THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LANDFALL. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO.

THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.6N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.6N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...BARRY POISED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.