Tropical Storm Barry Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters this afternoon indicates that Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1000 feet as high as 47 mph, which implies winds of at least 40 mph at the surface, using the usual 10% reduction rule for winds measured at 1000 feet. Barry has a small but growing area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are steadily showing more organization this afternoon, and low-level spiral bands have begun to appear. Wind shear was a moderate 15 knots on Wednesday afternoon, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. Barry is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like Barry and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect Barry will have time to attain sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon near Veracruz, Mexico. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Barry, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a weak or strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of Barry's rains from reaching the U.S. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Barry at 12:40 pm EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Barry's place in history
Barry is the second named storm of June 2013, and its formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968. The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season, though.

The formation of Tropical Storm Andrea and now Tropical Storm Barry in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been sixteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to six in the nineteen-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 - 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting daddyjames:


And would this ultimately help weaken the trade winds in the Caribbean?

Or would this mean that the Euro prediction is happening? Or am I way off base on both of those?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Does it really matter, lol? Post-season analysis will verify everything.


If there isn't evidence there isn't need for a post-season change in intensity -- recon provides us that evidence.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24159
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Definitely a prominent CDO building over Barry, Hurricane intensity is not out of possibility, and it likely won't get there but by landfall tomorrow it could be a Moderate to Strong tropical storm. The structure is building nicely around it.


Here is an animated loop for your observation:

Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 774
Quoting CybrTeddy:
One of the (many) times that we should have had a recon in. Probably a 50-60mph tropical storm, it's a shame Barry will be making landfall by the time the sun rises.


Does it really matter, lol? Post-season analysis will verify everything.
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I have been building my hurricane archives and have satellite movies of all east pacific and atlantic basin named storms from 1978 to 2007 from the link below. Does anyone have a link for the last 7 years?

Link
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Definitely a prominent CDO building over Barry, Hurticane intensity is not out of possibility, and it likely won't get there but by landfall tomorrow it could be a Moderate to Strong tropical storm. The structure is building nicely around it.


It is very unlikely for it to become a hurricane within several hours left over water. A moderate tropical storm at landfall is inevitable.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting RTSplayer:
So we're at two named storms.

The next several months will have to pick up the pace in order to match my expectation of 19 named storms.

I think I said 19-10-5, so we'll see.

That's easily possible in ASO months anyway. One per week in those months, 2 already, 2 in July, 2 in November or December. Seems reasonable enough.


2010 saw the formation of 19 named storms and we didn't see the 'B' storm until July... 19th? Somewhere around there. It was actually probably closer to the 22nd.

I'm just corroborating what you said, btw.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Definitely a prominent CDO building over Barry, Hurticane intensity is not out of possibility, and it likely won't get there but by landfall tomorrow it could be a Moderate to Strong tropical storm. The structure is building nicely around it.
I agree.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
So we're at two named storms.

The next several months will have to pick up the pace in order to match my expectation of 19 named storms.

I think I said 19-10-5, so we'll see.

That's easily possible in ASO months anyway. One per week in those months, 2 already, 2 in July, 2 in November or December. Seems reasonable enough.


You and me in the same boat, except mine was 19-10-4.

I'm not sweating it, yet.
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Quoting Civicane49:



Definitely a prominent CDO building over Barry, Hurricane intensity is not out of possibility, and it likely won't get there but by landfall tomorrow it could be a Moderate to Strong tropical storm. The structure is building nicely around it.
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So we're at two named storms.

The next several months will have to pick up the pace in order to match my expectation of 19 named storms.

I think I said 19-10-5, so we'll see.

That's easily possible in ASO months anyway. One per week in those months, 2 already, 2 in July, 2 in November or December. Seems reasonable enough.
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One of the (many) times that we should have had a recon in. Probably a 50-60mph tropical storm, it's a shame Barry will be making landfall by the time the sun rises.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24159
Quoting daddyjames:


Silly me, the Central Valley of Mexico - they desperately need rain there. Just like Texas.


The central valley of Mexico will see some rain as well.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Mid- to upper-level moisture associated with the residual 700 to 400 mb circulations can pretty easily travel hundreds of miles toward any given point. Based on the pattern, I could see some of this moisture (although probably not especially heavy) making it into portions of western and central Texas over the next 5 to 7 days.


Silly me, the Central Valley of Mexico - they desperately need rain there. Just like Texas.
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Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 774


Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


"FABIAN" (JMA 05/94W)


I see Leepi had the heck sheered out of it? Same fate for Fabian?
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Quoting daddyjames:


@KM - How far inland is the moisture from the storm supposed to get? Over the mountains and into the Central Valley?

@HHJ - SD does not have a BB team - and your rooting for the college kid - I can deal with that ;)


Mid- to upper-level moisture associated with the residual 700 to 400 mb circulations can pretty easily travel hundreds of miles toward any given point. Based on the pattern, I could see some of this moisture (although probably not especially heavy) making it into portions of western and central Texas over the next 5 to 7 days.
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Quoting SLU:


It's because the surface pressures are forecast by the GFS to drop below average across a large part of the basin.


And would this ultimately help weaken the trade winds in the Caribbean?

Or would this mean that the Euro prediction is happening? Or am I way off base on both of those?
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Wind increasing at Buoy SACV4 SW of Barry...


Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.174N 96.093W
Date: Thu, 20 Jun 2013 03:00:00 UTC
Winds: NNW (330°) at 29.9 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.78 in and rising
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Dew Point: 74.1 F
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 774
Quoting SLU:


It's because the surface pressures are forecast by the GFS to drop below average across a large part of the basin.
When did he and what comment # is that.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's always a challenge determining how strong these small systems are, especially since they don't seem to be very sensitive to microwave passes.


@KM - How far inland is the moisture from the storm supposed to get? Over the mountains and into the Central Valley?

@HHJ - SD does not have a BB team - and your rooting for the college kid - I can deal with that ;)
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499. SLU
Quoting daddyjames:


What the huge Low Pressure in the middle of the Atlantic?


It's because the surface pressures are forecast by the GFS to drop below average across a large part of the basin.
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498. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


"FABIAN" (JMA 05/94W)
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Really wish recon was out there. They'd probably find a stronger cyclone than advertised.



It's always a challenge determining how strong these small systems are, especially since they don't seem to be very sensitive to microwave passes. The typical Dvorak intensity relationship doesn't always apply, either, as in the case of Tropical Storm Marco in 2008.
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Quoting daddyjames:


I'm in OK -

so I'm a . . . a. . . not a Dallas fan (so not much football to watch here), follow basketball - mostly in the papers, would be a baseball fan if they'd stop dismantling the Marlins every third season . . . .

Don't watch much sports since moving here.

And (surprise) a weather/tropical question. How far inland is the moisture going to go? as far as the State of Mexico? I see that Mexico City is forecasting an inch of rain in 2 days.
I admit it, Im a homer...Chargers and Padres
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Ok everyone I'm out for tonight....

Not much to look at for a couple of more weeks....
And I was close I was sure it would get to 50mph but Hey 45 mph was close....
Yall have a good nite....


Taco :o)
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lol.

wish there was an "angies list" for poorly moderated blogs with plagiarized content taken from NHC, but "sold" as it's own.
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492. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIAN
11:00 AM PhST June 20 2013
==========================

The Low Pressure Area west of Batangas has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "FABIAN"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Fabian (1000 hPa) located at 15.2N 117.0E or 290 km west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "FABIAN" has no direct effect to any part of the country. However, it will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over the western section of Luzon particularly Palawan.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and the next update will be incorporated in the 24-hour weather forecast to be issued at 5 pm today.
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Quoting daddyjames:


Wow - what happened? It looked much more impressive yesterday.
It was probably cold water.
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Quoting hurricanes2018:
the water temp are starting to warm up very fast!!
I won't be surprised to see 90* water temps.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Leepi..



Wow - what happened? It looked much more impressive yesterday.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Im more of a NFL and MLB fan.


I'm in OK -

so I'm a . . . a. . . not a Dallas fan (so not much football to watch here), follow basketball - mostly in the papers, would be a baseball fan if they'd stop dismantling the Marlins every third season . . . .

Don't watch much sports since moving here.

And (surprise) a weather/tropical question. How far inland is the moisture going to go? as far as the State of Mexico? I see that Mexico City is forecasting an inch of rain in 2 days.
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--------Intensity------- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time Final/MSLPLat/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW Storm Location Fix
Date (UTC) CI MSLP /BiasAdj/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Lat Lon Mthd Comments
2013JUN20 031500 3.0 1000.0/ +0.0 / 45.0 3.0 3.3 4.5 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -70.56 -49.27 CRVBND N/A 19.60 95.93 FCST
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486. Skyepony (Mod)
Leepi..

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the water temp are starting to warm up very fast!!
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Quoting spathy:
475. daddyjames 3:38 AM GM

Daddy.
Just finding it odd that basketball talk is going on.
And cya come October.


Left-overs from last night - from Miami's complete dominance of SA (ahem, cough, couch, choke . . .)
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Would not want to be in a Cessna 172 from Vera Cruz to Ciudad Del Carmen right now!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Nah, that's just a troll. Easy to tell it's not the same person.


How? Just curious.
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Really wish recon was out there. They'd probably find a stronger cyclone than advertised.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32253
Im more of a NFL and MLB fan.
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Quoting spathy:
Hello
Storm hitting land?
Not the team scoring points.

Or is there some sort of basketball/storm code I am missing?

Dont remind me of this post come Football season.


Storm hitting land? Yes it seems in the next several hours....Winds are steadily picking up in Vera Cruz...it's not gonna be real windy but if it keeps going at 5-10 mph...it's gonna dump a whole lotta rain.
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Quoting daddyjames:


He now has an alter ego - when he does not wish to behave I guess - JasonWins33


Nah, that's just a troll. Easy to tell it's not the same person.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
Quoting spathy:
Hello
Storm hitting land?
Not the team scoring points.

Or is there some sort of basketball/storm code I am missing?

Dont remind me of this post come Football season.


???? :D
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. Incorrect. He's on here every day. This is his blog.

Edit: Difference is he's very well-behaved. We should let it lie.

Link


He now has an alter ego - when he does not wish to behave I guess - JasonWins33
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Quoting daddyjames:


LOL - feeling a bit insecure? I don't think you can - I mean, other than you noticing that they never respond to any of your posts.

I have about 8, most of those are probably old handles that have been perma-banned or no longer post.

Your not one of them - yet, depends if SA wins tomorrow. ;)
LOLOLOL
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471. vis0

Quoting Patrap (MSG#263):(vis0 edited Patrap's org img to cut KB load)

Ml-d stands for "microLow-device" is uses micro waves BUT NOT AS YOU know it, to generate what i call intrÆ sounds (Æ as only readable via H & He's twists within sub-atomic levels via what should be the opposing energy as to the mantel's molten iron. That opposing energy i state is in a static form and should have a "footprint" as if silicon.)

In GIF (below) ml-d area Barry is not in "? area" & TD over
PR is not yet in AOI area.



The right blinking area/island is Puerto Rico.

The Left Blinking area is the Northern coast of
Mexico to Texas's southern border onto the Gulf.

One has to have AT LEAST a third of a rotation,
be it Horizontal (to surface) rotation i.e. TS, Hurricane,
 (tornado) or Vertical Rotation TW, ~TD,  (wall cloud)
under the ml-d's AOI for the ml-d's settings to begin
influencing the sinking pressure vortex. (presently settings influence  that outermost ml-d ring at 0.67%, try to read my confusing blog for specifics)

The ml-d's Area Of Influence (AOI)  is shown in
the oblate area that is a negative film colour. One is
only seeing the lower third of that area.

LINK TO ENTIRE ml-d AOI AREA map (my Tinypic
public album link)

The SOLID BROWN ring you see is a wide on top
to thin as one lowers, strong vertical HIGH (BUT, over
salt water the HIGH's vertical shape is inverted). The HIGH nature generates in response to the ml-d's persistent ml-d vortex LOW settings, hence stronger winds/tighter ISOs over that HIGH's area(s) than expected when natural weather trends pass by, as out west.

If natural weather trend's surrounding the TS seem hostile to TS,  then as the ml-d is presently set, once a third of a spinning TS area enters the ml-d AOI you'll see a tug-of-war as if the TS's near-by surrounding weather goes from unfriendly to friendly, to n fro.

Then an EVEN MORE UNBELIEVABLE statement, low sounds
between the ml-d's area and vortex sing to each other and change that area's weather to a more favorable for developement area. Now since the ml-d settings are on "low influence" then its a push-pull where depending on the strength of the NATURAL TREND the ml-d can lose the fight but you'll still see some weird weather actions.
Reads as weird, just as my paper in College stated planets communicate with each other via a type of frequency in 1980, jump to ~1990 and a scientist proved it by her experiments, that plants communicate to each other.

From 1970s-2009 never had the ml-d ON for more than 3 weeks consecutively, nor 2-3 months over one calendar year.

In 2010 began to leave the ml-d ON year round, BUT in 2010 i took the ml-d to Puerto Rico for ~4 months of that year, see my blog for precise times.

Therefore to be totally correct, the ml-d has been ON in ONLY zip 10016 (NYc)  since ~August of 2010, once in a while its OFF for a few days (see blog for precise dates) and/or i carry a portable version which uses the body's energy field.
,peace
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.