Tropical Storm Barry Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters this afternoon indicates that Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1000 feet as high as 47 mph, which implies winds of at least 40 mph at the surface, using the usual 10% reduction rule for winds measured at 1000 feet. Barry has a small but growing area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are steadily showing more organization this afternoon, and low-level spiral bands have begun to appear. Wind shear was a moderate 15 knots on Wednesday afternoon, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. Barry is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like Barry and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect Barry will have time to attain sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon near Veracruz, Mexico. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Barry, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a weak or strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of Barry's rains from reaching the U.S. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Barry at 12:40 pm EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Barry's place in history
Barry is the second named storm of June 2013, and its formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968. The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season, though.

The formation of Tropical Storm Andrea and now Tropical Storm Barry in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been sixteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to six in the nineteen-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 - 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:
wxchaser and I realized that the tropical cyclones of 2013 have thus far originated from entirely tropical sources. This time last year, we had three named storms (Alberto, Beryl, and Chris), all of which had baroclinic origins above 25N.

I think it's a safe bet that, barring an unexpected El Nino, we'll see a lot more intense and long-lived storms in the Atlantic in 2013. Anytime we get storms forming predominantly in the subtropics like last year, it typically means the MDR isn't particularly favorable. This year it seems to be. I would consider convectively active 92L a couple weeks ago as evidence of that as well.


Agreed. So far, we've seen two tropical storms developing within the tropics in June as well as 92L in the MDR. This is usually a harbinger of a more active hurricane season this year in terms of major hurricanes and ACE than last year. We should see more activity in the MDR than in the subtropics.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
wxchaser and I realized that the tropical cyclones of 2013 have thus far originated from entirely tropical sources. This time last year, we had three named storms (Alberto, Beryl, and Chris), all of which had baroclinic origins above 25N.

I think it's a safe bet that, barring an unexpected El Nino, we'll see a lot more intense and long-lived storms in the Atlantic in 2013. Anytime we get storms forming predominantly in the subtropics like last year, it typically means the MDR isn't particularly favorable. This year it seems to be. I would consider convectively active 92L a couple weeks ago as evidence of that as well.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JUN 2013 Time : 054500 UTC
Lat : 19:36:05 N Lon : 96:00:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 995.1mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -64.2C Cloud Region Temp : -62.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.1 degrees
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Still at 40 knots, but pressure is down to 1003 mb.

AL, 02, 2013062006, , BEST, 0, 196N, 961W, 40, 1003, TS,
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
any recomendations on deep fryers?
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about 20 miles offshore?
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old satellite
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Typically I'd agree, but due to the curvature of the Bay of Campeche, winds may be a tad stronger than satellite would lead one to believe. Could be 60 mph right now. Again, we'll never know.


Lol. That would be too easy.


Maybe Surface obs could report higher winds.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
My blog update on TS Barry, feel free to check it out.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting Civicane49:


This is probably a 45 knot storm.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Impressive convective signature as it approaches the coast. 45kt intensity seems about right to me.

Typically I'd agree, but due to the curvature of the Bay of Campeche, winds may be a tad stronger than satellite would lead one to believe. Could be 60 mph right now. Again, we'll never know.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Maybe we'll get a timely microwave pass.

Lol. That would be too easy.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is not the appearance of a 40 knot tropical storm. We will never know its true intensity because the storm will be moving ashore before recon gets there.



This is probably a 45 knot storm.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Impressive convective signature as it approaches the coast. 45kt intensity seems about right to me.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is not the appearance of a 40 knot tropical storm. We will never know its true intensity because the storm will be moving ashore before recon gets there.



Maybe we'll get a timely microwave pass.
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^^ TropicalAnalystwx13 is right, just look at those cold cloud tops....

Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
This is not the appearance of a 40 knot tropical storm. We will never know its true intensity because the storm will be moving ashore before recon gets there.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
1:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 20
Location: 19.6°N 96.1°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
100 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...BARRY APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 96.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 997.6mb/ 47.0kt

I think it is 50mph system.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2517
Quoting daddyjames:


You can find some here, not sure you can download them.

I know that they have "fast-forward" movies of entire season 2009 season

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/mult imedia/mm_gallery.html


thank you for both!
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Veracruz, Mexico

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Quoting Civicane49:


Yeah, that was the last one I saw. Felicia was the last storm to threaten Hawaii in 2009.
Quoting Civicane49:


Yeah, that was the last one I saw. Felicia was the last storm to threaten Hawaii in 2009.
Yeah she kill Enrique what a poor storm.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4009
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 997.6mb/ 47.0kt

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

--------Intensity------- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time Final/MSLPLat/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW Storm Location Fix
Date (UTC) CI MSLP /BiasAdj/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Lat Lon Mthd Comments
2013JUN20 044500 3.2 997.6/ +0.0 / 49.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -71.46 -62.35 UNIFRM N/A 19.60 96.08 FCST
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2517
Quoting KoritheMan:


We did see one. Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Enrique danced around in 2009.


Yeah, that was the last one I saw. Felicia was the last storm to threaten Hawaii in 2009.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:


CMC also agrees with the GFS on this scenario. It would be interesting to see the Fujiwhara interaction in the eastern Pacific.


We did see one. Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Enrique danced around in 2009.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I have been building my hurricane archives and have satellite movies of all east pacific and atlantic basin named storms from 1978 to 2007 from the link below. Does anyone have a link for the last 7 years?

Link


HHJ - you still here?

CIMSS also has animated satellite movies for some storms HERE
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Quoting daddyjames:


Levi sates that the EURO outperforms the other models with ENSO - I would not know.


Levi wouldn't just make stuff up. He's one of the few people here that actually have my legitimate respect. I'll have to debate with him about that at a later time.

All I know is... it flopped last year. Horribly.

It does seem to do rather well with forecasting the upper air pattern most of the time, though.
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Quoting VR46L:


Its not movies but for Static imagery this might be of interest

GOES East Image Search


Thank you!
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Quoting Civicane49:


CMC also agrees with the GFS on this scenario. It would be interesting to see the Fujiwhara interaction in the eastern Pacific.


If they both get strong enough, and w=one does not parasitize the other.
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Barry looking good.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2517
what up with all the lows on this map!! there is more the ten lows on this crazy map!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think too much faith is put into the Euro most of the time. I don't have the actual statistics, and I realize the stereotype that it's infallible has to come from somewhere, but... come on. It does very poorly with genesis and ENSO from what I've seen.


Levi sates that the EURO outperforms the other models with ENSO - I would not know.
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Quoting daddyjames:


Could be interesting - lets see if it holds out a couple of days from now.


CMC also agrees with the GFS on this scenario. It would be interesting to see the Fujiwhara interaction in the eastern Pacific.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting SLU:


It's totally opposite to the EURO. I have a strong suspicion that the EURO forecast will bust again like last year.


I think too much faith is put into the Euro most of the time. I don't have the actual statistics, and I realize the stereotype that it's infallible has to come from somewhere, but... come on. It does very poorly with genesis and ENSO from what I've seen.
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Quoting SLU:


It's totally opposite to the EURO. I have a strong suspicion that the EURO forecast will bust again like last year.


would you know enough of what factors the EURO weighs so that it is goes out on such a limb with the ENSO?

I thought the EURO was calling for warming of the EPAC - El Nino
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--------Intensity------- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time Final/MSLPLat/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW Storm Location Fix
Date (UTC) CI MSLP /BiasAdj/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Lat Lon Mthd Comments
2013JUN20 041500 3.1 998.8/ +0.0 / 47.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -71.96 -59.57 UNIFRM N/A 19.60 96.03 FCST
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2517
Quoting Civicane49:


Could be interesting - lets see if it holds out a couple of days from now.
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533. SLU
Quoting daddyjames:


And would this ultimately help weaken the trade winds in the Caribbean?

Or would this mean that the Euro prediction is happening? Or am I way off base on both of those?


It's totally opposite to the EURO. I have a strong suspicion that the EURO forecast will bust again like last year.
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Quoting Gearsts:
That's for the trade winds so epac will probably warm up and the atlantic.


Thoughts on whether that would push the warm water more to the East by Venezuela?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I have been building my hurricane archives and have satellite movies of all east pacific and atlantic basin named storms from 1978 to 2007 from the link below. Does anyone have a link for the last 7 years?

Link


You can find some here, not sure you can download them.

I know that they have "fast-forward" movies of entire season 2009 season

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/mult imedia/mm_gallery.html
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Quoting Civicane49:
Quoting Civicane49:
Cosme and Dalila.sweet anyways I always thought Cosme was the feminine of Cosmo my brother also thought Chantal was a male name lol.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4009
Quoting daddyjames:


Thanks Gearsts. Looks as if shear disappears over the Carib/Atlantic and explodes over the EPAC.

Hmm, pretty much the same time that the MJO arrives in the Atlantic, so I guess the beginning of July could be pretty interesting.

How you guys remember where all these different things are, I wouldn't know.
That's for the trade winds so epac will probably warm up and the atlantic.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

My thoughts exactly ;)

Goodnight everyone.
Goodnight Tyler,your a good friend.
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Quoting Civicane49:


It is very unlikely for it to become a hurricane within several hours left over water. A moderate tropical storm at landfall is inevitable.

My thoughts exactly ;)

Goodnight everyone.
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Quoting Gearsts:


Thanks Gearsts. Looks as if shear disappears over the Carib/Atlantic and explodes over the EPAC.

Hmm, pretty much the same time that the MJO arrives in the Atlantic, so I guess the beginning of July could be pretty interesting.

How you guys remember where all these different things are, I wouldn't know.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If there isn't evidence there isn't need for a post-season change in intensity -- recon provides us that evidence.


I read ya.
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522. VR46L
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I have been building my hurricane archives and have satellite movies of all east pacific and atlantic basin named storms from 1978 to 2007 from the link below. Does anyone have a link for the last 7 years?

Link


Its not movies but for Static imagery this might be of interest

GOES East Image Search
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6832
Quoting daddyjames:


And would this ultimately help weaken the trade winds in the Caribbean?

Or would this mean that the Euro prediction is happening? Or am I way off base on both of those?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.