Tropical Storm Barry Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters this afternoon indicates that Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1000 feet as high as 47 mph, which implies winds of at least 40 mph at the surface, using the usual 10% reduction rule for winds measured at 1000 feet. Barry has a small but growing area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are steadily showing more organization this afternoon, and low-level spiral bands have begun to appear. Wind shear was a moderate 15 knots on Wednesday afternoon, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. Barry is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like Barry and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect Barry will have time to attain sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon near Veracruz, Mexico. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Barry, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a weak or strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of Barry's rains from reaching the U.S. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Barry at 12:40 pm EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Barry's place in history
Barry is the second named storm of June 2013, and its formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968. The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season, though.

The formation of Tropical Storm Andrea and now Tropical Storm Barry in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been sixteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to six in the nineteen-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 - 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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621. MTWX
Forecasted high in Barrow Alaska today, according to WU, is 73 (NWS is quite a bit more conservative on their forecast of upper 50's). If it does indeed reach the WU high, then it would shatter its record high of 60 degrees for today set in 1989.

WU Forecast



NWS Forecast
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
The June 20 update of the sst anomalies have some important points:

1-Gulf of Guinea is cold
2-Indian Ocean is cold.
3-Equatorial Pacific continues very well Neutral.
4-PDO has cooled again.
5-North Atlantic Tripole is further south.
6-MDR continues warm except for isolated cold spots.
7-GOM has warmed a lot.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14921
619. VR46L
Good Morning Folks ...


Barry in Funktop

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
618. VR46L
Quoting Wiiilbur:


IF Barry actually had 60 mph winds (which it doesn't), what exactly would it be upgraded to?


Don't Know ,it would still be a Tropical Storm ....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Or the flag can end up in Baltimore by the time hurricane season is over.


As long as it and pieces of his house don't end up in my yard and pieces of my house don't end up in someone elses yard...could be ok? (fingers crossed)
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting mikatnight:
Good morning once again fair bloggers!


Taken around 6:45am. Rain was offshore, but none for us.


The bottom flag is my neighbor's Baltimore Ravens Superbowl Champs. It's getting a little ragged. I figure it'll disintegrate by the time NFL season rolls around.


Or the flag can end up in Baltimore by the time hurricane season is over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning once again fair bloggers!


Taken around 6:45am. Rain was offshore, but none for us.


The bottom flag is my neighbor's Baltimore Ravens Superbowl Champs. It's getting a little ragged. I figure it'll disintegrate by the time NFL season rolls around.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052


Long Range Loop Brownsville, TX Radar shows outer rainband of Barry
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Quoting HurricaneDevo:


So we have an possible upgrade to storm in post season analysis for at least two storms this year, with possible upgrade to hurricane for Barry? What happens if they decide the other two storms were really tropical storms and should have been named? Do they give them a name in post season analysis, or just refer to them as no name storms?


They're just upgraded to "Unnamed Tropical Storm". There was one in 2011.
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610. SLU
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Does it really matter, lol? Post-season analysis will verify everything.


So we have an possible upgrade to storm in post season analysis for at least two storms this year, with possible upgrade to hurricane for Barry? What happens if they decide the other two storms were really tropical storms and should have been named? Do they give them a name in post season analysis, or just refer to them as no name storms?
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Quoting flcanes:
At least 60 MPH by now...


Yeah, but NHC doesn't appear they will upgrade it...
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607. SLU
Upper level winds to become highly favourable for development across the MDR by month end. This could open the door for July Cape Verde activity once the SAL diminishes.





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At least 60 MPH by now...
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7:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 20
Location: 19.6°N 96.4°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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NWS Miami ‏@NWSMiami 1m
Heavy #rainfall early this morning led to minor street #flooding along portions of North Miami Beach from 91 to 96st between 3-6am (2.5").
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Quoting ncstorm:


Lovely, more rain for my state...
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The models continue quiet in terms of long range development even with the MJO pulse arriving. As Levi said in his tweets,if this next pulse comes and goes rapidly then things will not be as easy to develop.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14921
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Not sure why the NHC didn't bump the intensity up at 5AM. Barry looks much stronger than 45mph. Raw T# is up to a 4.0 which would suggest minimal hurricane force winds, and the others numbers aren't far behind it.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 992.6mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.7 4.0

Even if those are half a point too high it would still be 50-60mph.


The human derived T#s are much lower:

AL 02 201306200545 DVTS CI 1960N 9590W TAFB 2020 ///// Final T-No. based on MET and Pattern T-No.
AL 02 201306200545 DVTS CI 1970N 9610W SAB 1520 ///// DT=1.5 BO CBND MET=2.0 PT=1.5 FTBO DT
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11346
Quoting fabian171017:


Is this the blob which the GFS developed into a TS a few days ago?


the CMC and Euro have been hinting at this feature but nothing as strong as a TS..the strongest I saw was a 1008 mb..
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Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Blog..and blob..



Is this the blob which the GFS developed into a TS a few days ago?
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Good Morning Blog..and blob..

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Quoting BahaHurican:
This board is amazing. Yesterday a.m. somebody was complaining that NHC is now too liberal.

Now they're too conservative.

But wait... forgot no politics on the blog...
;-) Remember, the NHC always names storms in order to pad their numbers because that justifies their existence, except when they're not naming things they should in order to not scare people, which contradicts with their plan to name they things they shouldn't in order to "prove" global warming, but they only do that when they're not giving names to storms they should because to do so would hike interest rates and lead to a recession, though that's offset by them naming things they shouldn't because they get paid on a per-storm basis...

Despite their many other obvious problems, the biggest issue with anti-NHC conspiracy theories is they're just so extraordinarily laughable...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
While T numbers suggest higher wind speed for Barry, the very small area of these winds likely will not pass over a reliable monitoring station , so we may never know ....
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Quoting yonzabam:


I think he meant 'conservative' with a small 'c', which has a non-political meaning. Personally, I'm quite liberal when I'm pouring whisky. Language, eh?


I see what you did there :)))
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Quoting BahaHurican:
This board is amazing. Yesterday a.m. somebody was complaining that NHC is now too liberal.

Now they're too conservative.

But wait... forgot no politics on the blog...


I think he meant 'conservative' with a small 'c', which has a non-political meaning. Personally, I'm quite liberal when I'm pouring whisky. Language, eh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
592. SLU
Quoting daddyjames:


would you know enough of what factors the EURO weighs so that it is goes out on such a limb with the ENSO?

I thought the EURO was calling for warming of the EPAC - El Nino
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think too much faith is put into the Euro most of the time. I don't have the actual statistics, and I realize the stereotype that it's infallible has to come from somewhere, but... come on. It does very poorly with genesis and ENSO from what I've seen.


The EURO has been the best model with the ENSO for the last several years but overall this year it has performed poorly with its Atlantic seasonal forecasts. It predicted high pressures last year and that was absolutely incorrect. This year, it's seasonal forecast has been jumping from one scenario to the next from month to month so there's no consistency. It also failed to predict cyclogenesis in the Indian Ocean, EPAC and also failed to acknowledge the genesis of BARRY although the GFS might have been overly aggressive with it.

Concerning ENSO, there's no sign of that happening this year with the SOI screaming La Nina with values of over 10. The negative IOD is also more of a La Nina setup than El Nino. This is why I believe the EURO will bust again this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning. Not sure why the NHC didn't bump the intensity up at 5AM. Barry looks much stronger than 45mph. Raw T# is up to a 4.0 which would suggest minimal hurricane force winds, and the others numbers aren't far behind it.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 992.6mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.7 4.0

Even if those are half a point too high it would still be 50-60mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This board is amazing. Yesterday a.m. somebody was complaining that NHC is now too liberal.

Now they're too conservative.

But wait... forgot no politics on the blog...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm getting more and more angry about the NHC being so conservative this year. Andrea was at least a 70 mph storm, then there was 92L which was at least a T.D. and now there's Barry, who is certainly stronger than 45 mph.

"THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY."

Ridiculous.
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This Twave looks set to bring a rainy weekend to the Bahamas and Cuba. I have to say, though, it doesn't look as vigorous a rainmaker as it seemed likely to be yesterday.

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Good morning to all.
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Barry is about to make landfall near Veracruz, Mexico.



With that I'm out.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:
Quoting Civicane49:
Probably a 60mph ts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAGUNA VERDE...VERACRUZ HARBOR AND
SACRIFICE ISLAND STATIONS NEAR THE CITY OF VERACRUZ INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER IS VERY NEAR THE COAST...AND BARRY SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ SHORTLY. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. WEAKENING
SHOULD BE RAPID AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH THE EXTREMELY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR ABOUT 270/4.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BARRY SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS
WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY
RAINS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 19.6N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0600Z 19.6N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...BARRY ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 96.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 992.5mb/ 55.0kt
Quoting Civicane49:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 992.5mb/ 55.0kt
65mph Amazing.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
They need to go with that strength.
I agree but the NHC will probably take the conservative side.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4 for 4 1, andrea landfall big bend a wk before it happened 2.called td 2 a few hrs before it was declared 3 said it would make landfall as a moderate tropical storm 4. said the tw would go poof after moving through the windwards. my character has been on fire this yr. hopefully im wrong about the s fl. impact during cv season
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5009
Quoting Civicane49:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 992.5mb/ 55.0kt
They need to go with that strength.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 992.5mb/ 55.0kt
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Watch this buoy as Barry approaches the coast. Link

Station LMBV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.594N 96.379W
Date: Thu, 20 Jun 2013 07:00:00 UTC
Winds: NW (310°) at 7.0 kt gusting to 12.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 74.8 F
Dew Point: 74.3 F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
572. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
15:00 PM JST June 20 2013
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) near 16.1N 117.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.6N 116.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Depression will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours

Cyclone will be upgraded to a tropical storm within 24 hours

Cyclone will develop because spiral cloud bands have become well organized

Final initial Dvorak number will be T2.5 after 24 hours


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TROPICAL STORM LEEPI (T1304)
15:00 PM JST June 20 2013
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone In East China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Leepi (994 hPa) near 28.5N 125.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 16 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 32.4N 132.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) near Nobeoka [Japan]
48 HRS: 33.3N 146.6E - Extratropical Low In Sea East Of Japan

Additional Information
=======================
LEEPI will move north northeast for the next 24 hours then move eastward

Cyclone will weaken because landfall is expected within 24 hours

Final initial Dvorak number will be T2.5 after 24 hours
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Quoting KoritheMan:
wxchaser and I realized that the tropical cyclones of 2013 have thus far originated from entirely tropical sources. This time last year, we had three named storms (Alberto, Beryl, and Chris), all of which had baroclinic origins above 25N.

I think it's a safe bet that, barring an unexpected El Nino, we'll see a lot more intense and long-lived storms in the Atlantic in 2013. Anytime we get storms forming predominantly in the subtropics like last year, it typically means the MDR isn't particularly favorable. This year it seems to be. I would consider convectively active 92L a couple weeks ago as evidence of that as well.


Agreed. So far, we've seen two tropical storms developing within the tropics in June as well as 92L in the MDR. This is usually a harbinger of a more active hurricane season this year in terms of major hurricanes and ACE than last year. We should see more activity in the MDR than in the subtropics.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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