Tropical Storm Barry Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters this afternoon indicates that Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1000 feet as high as 47 mph, which implies winds of at least 40 mph at the surface, using the usual 10% reduction rule for winds measured at 1000 feet. Barry has a small but growing area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are steadily showing more organization this afternoon, and low-level spiral bands have begun to appear. Wind shear was a moderate 15 knots on Wednesday afternoon, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. Barry is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like Barry and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect Barry will have time to attain sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon near Veracruz, Mexico. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Barry, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a weak or strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of Barry's rains from reaching the U.S. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Barry at 12:40 pm EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Barry's place in history
Barry is the second named storm of June 2013, and its formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968. The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season, though.

The formation of Tropical Storm Andrea and now Tropical Storm Barry in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been sixteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to six in the nineteen-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 - 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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One of the nicest looking invests and TD's finally gets a name after holding out so long :P Thought was a lovely looking storm before making landfall. Must be named after Barry Gibb...staying alive and all..buhdumdum...I'll get me coat LOL
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When Barry dies, I will start barrying him.
Who can barry the storm for me?
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Recon finding flight level winds of around 56mph.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24019
Nice IR loop from RAMMB
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Loop embedded

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
65-75 mph.

Thx.
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Quoting 62901IL:

Can you give me wind strengh?
65-75 mph.
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Wow,it's been since early June or late May since we've seen any EAST PACIFIC activity.Expection with 93E.
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Quoting HurricaneAndre:
C OR D.

Can you give me wind strengh?
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Quoting ricderr:
i have to ponder what is more important......alaska setting record temperatures....or a weak tropical system in gulf waters soon to make landfall......welcome to the world of weather weenies where tropical is king....you all may proceed...


Heat does kill more people than hurricanes. Don't know how good they are at basketball tho...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So we Barryly have Barry, and its Barryling down on Veracruz and intensifying.


Then I'm gone.....gotta eat some crow after that joke yesterday about Barrying him.

I really dug myself a hole with that one.
See you guys tomorrow

Lol. I'm gonna start barrying barry as soon as he dies.
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Quoting Patrap:


Sounds refreshing..,but I'm having a Homemade Strawberry muscle Punch smoothie.


Bless da blender'


A little rum then?
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Quoting 62901IL:
What do you think barry will peak at.
A: Weak TS
B: Moderate TS
C: Strong TS
D: hurricane
E: Major Hurricane.
F: He will fall apart before he peaks.
C OR D.
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Has be a Cat 2 plus surge for a Fresca ALERT
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Quoting Jelloboy:


In the question I clearly said I'm not arguing about climate change, just the number of named storms and if we can do an A/B comparison to say 30-40 years ago.


Landsea et al would mostly agree with you.

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Quoting Dakster:


Hey, Pedley, is it still a scourcher in your kneck of the world?


Been under 88.0 all week. 80.8 right now, forecast 85....
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Quoting ricderr:
i have to ponder what is more important......alaska setting record temperatures....or a weak tropical system in gulf waters soon to make landfall......welcome to the world of weather weenies where tropical is king....you all may proceed...


Glad we have your permission...

BTW, you never answered, what do you do for a living?
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So we Barryly have Barry, and its Barryling down on Veracruz and intensifying.


Then I'm gone.....gotta eat some crow after that joke yesterday about Barrying him.

I really dug myself a hole with that one.
See you guys tomorrow
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting Dakster:
Patrap - How 'bout a fresca?

Nice loop.


Sounds refreshing..,but I'm having a Homemade Strawberry muscle Punch smoothie.


Bless da blender'
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Quoting Jelloboy:
Dr. Masters I would love to get your input if you happen to see this. I know you're a global climate change guy but would it be fair to say that because of all the new technology and methods available to us today that we're seeing more named storms, at least in part, because we can better detect them? For example would it be fair today to say that if we had all our current technology available that past years would be upgraded in terms of the number of storms? I'm not at all arguing global warming / climate change, just if my point is valid and if not why.

Thank you.
I believe you'll see that Dr. Masters addressed this very issue in the 2008 blog post he referenced above, Is the Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13530
Quoting SLU:


We can expect our storm tracks to be comparable to that of 1960 with almost 3 times the number of storms if this Atlantic "death ridge" holds tight.



Didn't Donna hold the record for maintaining major status longest?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
i have to ponder what is more important......alaska setting record temperatures....or a weak tropical system in gulf waters soon to make landfall......welcome to the world of weather weenies where tropical is king....you all may proceed...
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Quoting Patrap:
TS Barry

RGB Loop

click image for Loop


WARNING! Outer rainbands are about to hit! Take shelter now!
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TS Barry

RGB Loop

click image for Loop

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Patrap - How 'bout a fresca?

Nice loop.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
(click to enlarge)

How do you make these graphics? can you give me a step-by-step guide?
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Quoting opal92nwf:


I've watched it, and it is a great documentary on Iniki. It included the footages before, during, and after the storm.
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IR Channel 4
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TS Barry

Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop


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(click to enlarge)
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Quoting LargoFl:

Showers and tstms.
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Caribbean Islands Hurricane Update June 19th 2013




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qn5yVVi_Fh4
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This just was uploaded on Youtube in this last few months. It has been hard for me to find a lot of Iniki footage. Some of this is a little drawn out, but good footage of the storm and damage.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



why did you have too bring this up?


why cant we have a blog with out any global climate change talk in it

if you guys want too talk about climate change this is the blog and place you need two be

Link


In the question I clearly said I'm not arguing about climate change, just the number of named storms and if we can do an A/B comparison to say 30-40 years ago.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Would like to track a storm like Abby.Btw I always thought the record for June storms was 2 now I see that it was 3.Anyone knows the record for November?
Quoting allancalderini:
Would like to track a storm like Abby.Btw I always thought the record for June storms was 2 now I see that it was 3.Anyone knows the record for November?
Now that I remember it was 2005 with Gamma,Delta and Epilson.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
You are very busy today, is that 3 or 4. Thanks for the Updates,


Hey, Pedley, is it still a scourcher in your kneck of the world?
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Quoting 7544:


maybe this could be 93L anything could happen imo at anytime the way things are goin so far



you mean 94L
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You are very busy today, is that 3 or 4. Thanks for the Updates,
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32. 7544
Quoting HurricaneAndre:


Low LEVEL VORTICY AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC.


maybe this could be 93L anything could happen imo at anytime the way things are goin so far
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Barry continuing to organize.

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Readings from SW quad of Barry may support 40kt intensity.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Recon finding some 45 knot flight-level winds with 40 knots at the surface.
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Quoting SLU:


We can expect our storm tracks to be comparable to that of 1960 with almost 3 times the number of storms if this Atlantic "death ridge" holds tight.

Would like to track a storm like Abby.Btw I always thought the record for June storms was 2 now I see that it was 3.Anyone knows the record for November?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What do you think barry will peak at.
A: Weak TS
B: Moderate TS
C: Strong TS
D: hurricane
E: Major Hurricane.
F: He will fall apart before he peaks.
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I believe a center reformation is ongoing closer to the strong convection on the northeast side.



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SLU - Yep... Unfortunately, you may be correct. I hope that there is a break in the ridge to allow them to miss the US East Coast and Bermuda.
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3 posts in 1 day! Think he might be going for the record.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting Jelloboy:
Dr. Masters I would love to get your input if you happen to see this. I know you're a global climate change guy but would it be fair to say that because of all the new technology and methods available to us today that we're seeing more named storms, at least in part, because we can better detect them? For examples would it be fair today to say that if we had all our current technology available that past years would be upgraded in terms of the number of storms? I'm not at all arguing global warming / climate change, just if my point is valid and if not why.

Thank you.



why did you have too bring this up?


why cant we have a blog with out any global climate change talk in it

if you guys want too talk about climate change this is the blog and place you need two be

Link
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I feel like we have three or four blogs today.Thanks a lot Dr Masters,I believe Barry would peak at 60mph.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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