Tropical Storm Barry Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters this afternoon indicates that Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1000 feet as high as 47 mph, which implies winds of at least 40 mph at the surface, using the usual 10% reduction rule for winds measured at 1000 feet. Barry has a small but growing area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are steadily showing more organization this afternoon, and low-level spiral bands have begun to appear. Wind shear was a moderate 15 knots on Wednesday afternoon, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. Barry is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like Barry and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect Barry will have time to attain sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon near Veracruz, Mexico. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Barry, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a weak or strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of Barry's rains from reaching the U.S. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Barry at 12:40 pm EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Barry's place in history
Barry is the second named storm of June 2013, and its formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968. The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season, though.

The formation of Tropical Storm Andrea and now Tropical Storm Barry in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been sixteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to six in the nineteen-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 - 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't like receiving nor giving crow, to be honest. ;)

Forecasting involves being right and wrong.

At least I've done a lot better than I did with Barbara...



Well some systems just have a mind of there own, for example, Hurricane Katrina, who thought that she would become a Category Hurricane 1 before making landfall in Florida and who thought that she would make landfall as a Category 3, after being predicted as a Category 5 landfall directly on New Orleans, sometimes the storm gets the best of the blogger, meteorologist and citizens in harms way.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE CARIBBEAN IS A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 50 NM EAST OF FAJARDO PUERTO RICO.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE W ATLC WHICH EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ALSO MOVING W-NW IN THE SW
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES
HIGH. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING CONTINUOUS RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS EXTENDING FROM 14N-24N
BETWEEN 58W-67W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WHERE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT
TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ABOUNDS.
RAINSHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 70 NM N
OF THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTLINES IN ASSOCIATION TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH. TRADEWINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE UP TO 20-
25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THAT REGION. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE A N-NW TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER LA HISPANIOLA EARLY ON THURSDAY BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE AND
ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE WAVE
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CUBA.

From 205 PM TW Discussion
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169. JLPR2
Quoting allancalderini:
If a normal person that doesn`t know anything about hurricanes or tropical storms and see this photo they might believe this was a ts.


Yes. XD These images always look scary, even when it is only a blob.

That ULL to the north of PR sure gave a push to the TW, but the recent appearance of a weak 850mb vort is interesting.

Even though the heaviest rain missed me I am almost a 1 inch of rain for today.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Should I say it? Nahhh, Isaac isn't around.
I'll do the honors...

Hey, Isaac? RECON WON'T MAKE IT!
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Quoting Methurricanes:
That because you are thinking the converse
You are saying
If a Hurricane goes through Herbert's Box, then it will hit Florida as a major Hurricane

the theory is
If a Major is to hit Florida, it will Pass through either of Herbert's boxes


Yep - There is a very high probability of that. But not absolute.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Should I say it? Nahhh, Isaac isn't around.

They would've made it Monday had the NHC not cancelled the flight, too. Center didn't move ashore until after 5pm EDT.
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TWC just showed another growing wildfire in CO... oh my, I hope it goes out quickly
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I'll believe a hurricane threatening Florida if the steering currents at that time supports it.Not based on mythical boxes.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The next flight into Barry isn't until 0815z (3:15 am CDT). The storm should be inland by then, so this will probably be cancelled.

Any intensity changes from here on out will be courtesy of satellite intensity estimates.


Should I say it? Nahhh, Isaac isn't around.
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2 days ago, both the NHC and San Juan NWS said the tropical wave would move into the SE CARIBBEAN AND ABC (Aruba Bonaire Curacao) Islands...

Well... look where it is now. Obviously, that was a significant bust forecast.

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Quoting Dakster:


Remember, those boxes are for strong/major Hurricanes, not tropical storms.
Quoting VR46L:


Man you know one mention of a wave going through the Herbert Boxes sends folks into meltdown LOL


Noted and Noted, i just wanted to see the reaction of some of the bloggers on here when they take a gander at those two blue boxes.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm holding at my 50mph top from last night. I just hope Barry doesn't have other plans.

Also, that TW does have a nice look to it.



Imagine if the TUTT wasn't in the area.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
These boxes can have false results.Earl went through the box and didn't even touch Florida.
That because you are thinking the converse
You are saying
If a Hurricane goes through Herbert's Box, then it will hit Florida as a major Hurricane

the theory is
If a Major is to hit Florida, it will Pass through either of Herbert's boxes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm holding at my 50mph top from last night. I just hope Barry doesn't have other plans.

Also, that TW does have a nice look to it.



The TW in question is interacting with a TUTT, inducing convection. If anything it will keep CaribBoy calm.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting washingtonian115:
These boxes can have false results.Earl went through the box and didn't even touch Florida.
I believe it only happen when the wave have not develop into a tc.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
It was either Dr. M or one of the recent discussions that suggested that Barry might get "stuck" in the lower BOC because of the ridging to the North. A storm usually slows down when it feels the effect of an approaching trof (not the case here) or the ridge and the slowdown usually signals a slight change in course.

Barry may be headed inland very soon, in accordance with the current NHC plot, but the slowdown, if it lasts more than 12 hours, can allow it to spin up a little more before landfall.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The next flight into Barry isn't until 0815z (3:15 am CDT). The storm should be inland by then, so this will probably be cancelled.

Any intensity changes from here on out will be courtesy of satellite intensity estimates.
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152. VR46L
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
I think the wave will have a 10% chance of development.


I would give it a little more if it stays in the east Caribbean .. its dead if it goes into west Caribbean

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6968
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm holding at my 50mph top from last night. I just hope Barry doesn't have other plans.

Also, that TW does have a nice look to it.

If a normal person that doesn`t know anything about hurricanes or tropical storms and see this photo they might believe this was a ts.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting washingtonian115:
These boxes can have false results.Earl went through the box and didn't even touch Florida.


Yes and if you read up on the boxes it doesn't guarantee a hit or miss. Just that it is more likely than not, if a major hurricane passes thru one, it will hit Florida.
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149. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TROPICAL STORM LEEPI (T1304)
3:00 AM JST June 20 2013
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone In East China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Leepi (994 hPa) near 25.2N 124.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 30.5N 127.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) near Yakushima [Japan]
48 HRS: 32.3N 139.0E - Extratropical Low near Izu Island


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
3:00 AM JST June 20 2013
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) near 14.8N 116.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.8N 114.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Since Charley, I have viewed Hurricane Donna as the other best analog for a major hurricane impact in inland Central Florida. Donna and Charley are likely the only hurricanes in the last century to actually bring sustained hurricane force winds to the Orlando area. Donna went further west than Charley, so the worst of the winds went west of Orlando itself, unlike with Charley.


I've lived in the Tampa Bay area my whole life - we've never had hurricane winds except for the 1993 No Name storm. I will say I did find it amusing that people left this area to go stay in hotels in Orlando to escape Charlie. Ooops. Me? I had zero faith in the NHS track, still I got my house ready just in case for the first time in my life I was wrong -- however I wasn't. Charlie was so small that in Tampa that day it wasn't even breezy. I'd compare Carlie to a very large tornado or a very very small hurricane -- it was intense, just small. The NHC did itself a great injustice by waiting so long to change the track on that storm, even the local weathermen were going off script to tell people it wasn't going to hit here, that's very rare. A lifetime of wrong forecasts and forced evacuations will one day lead to a Katrina like issue of people ignoring a valid track -- sitting in traffic for 10 hours to get to Orlando only to be hit by a hurricane won't do much to encourage people to do that again.
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My headline at this point would be Barely Barry forms in the BOC...
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146. JLPR2
I'm holding at my 50mph top from last night. I just hope Barry doesn't have other plans.

Also, that TW does have a nice look to it.

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Quoting FIUStormChaser:


I'm going to be honest, initially when you were calling for than TD2 to become Barry i was quite skeptical. At that time, TD2 appeared to be dying slowly in the interior of the Yucatan Peninsula, and it was drifting WNW. However after a surprising and subtle jog to the NNW and some tightening of the circulation as it left the coastline, i must say that you called this correctly. I am going to give credit where credit is due, i was correct about Andrea going into the Big Bend, although i didn't expect it to intensify that quickly and get that strong. But in my mind although not portrayed by my neutral posts i was clearly wrong about this system, i did not expect nothing more than a Tropical Depression. So i guess, you may serve me my fried crow.

If what you say is true, and Barry really is slowing down, it may just have a chance of becoming our first hurricane. It has already proved me and many others wrong once.

I never thought this would become Barry. I thought it would be too beaten down from its trip over land and would not have enough time over water. I guess this is another good testament to how the BOC can spin things up fast.
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Quoting Dakster:


Remember, those boxes are for strong/major Hurricanes, not tropical storms.
These boxes can have false results.Earl went through the box and didn't even touch Florida.
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143. VR46L
Quoting FIUStormChaser:




Man you know one mention of a wave going through the Herbert Boxes sends folks into meltdown LOL
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6968
I think the wave will have a 10% chance of development.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
The wave is running into a nice anti-cyclone and lowering shear environment.

Maybe Barry will surprise us.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you think the slowdown may allow for Barry to get more stronger than moderate TS?


I have difficulty still seeing anything beyond 45kt at peak.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting FIUStormChaser:




Remember, those boxes are for strong/major Hurricanes, not tropical storms.
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Plane is going home.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
Barry should be making landfall by the 5am advisory.

I don't think we'll see it get stronger than 50 mph.
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Good evening. I see, Barry was born. I hope he'll behave better in Mexico than the monsoon in India:

India, Nepal monsoon floods leave 160 dead
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135. MTWX
Quoting Methurricanes:
Could Barry's slow down indicate a possible hard right?


Don't think so... Not with that large high in the gulf.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He's slowed down considerably.


20%.
At 6 mph and with current forecast path it should make landfall in 14.3 hours. Good amount of time but I think it will take some serious RI to get to a hurricane. I would put the odds at around 5-10%. I would put 60 mph around 60-70% however.

Edit: I think I would downgrade to 60-70%.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you think the slowdown may allow for Barry to get more stronger than moderate TS?
Yes.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
Quoting VR46L:
That Wave in the Caribbean looks sweet

Rammb IR


Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
(click to enlarge)
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Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Barry went from 10mph to 6mph in it's forward speed, somewhat of a slow down.


Do you think the slowdown may allow for Barry to get more stronger than moderate TS?
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:


I'm going to be honest, initially when you were calling for than TD2 to become Barry i was quite skeptical. At that time, TD2 appeared to be dying slowly in the interior of the Yucatan Peninsula, and it was drifting WNW. However after a surprising and subtle jog to the NNW and some tightening of the circulation as it left the coastline, i must say that you called this correctly. I am going to give credit where credit is due, i was correct about Andrea going into the Big Bend, although i didn't expect it to intensify that quickly and get that strong. But in my mind although not portrayed by my neutral posts i was clearly wrong about this system, i did not expect nothing more than a Tropical Depression. So i guess, you may serve me my fried crow.

If what you say is true, and Barry really is slowing down, it may just have a chance of becoming our first hurricane. It has already proved me and many others wrong once.

I don't like receiving nor giving crow, to be honest. ;)

Forecasting involves being right and wrong.

At least I've done a lot better than I did with Barbara...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Barry went from 10mph to 6mph in it's forward speed, somewhat of a slow down.



Yes, 4 mph seems small but look at it like this

It will take 4 more hours do go 60 miles at 6 mph than 10

That's a difference maker
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Quoting Methurricanes:
Could Barry's slow down indicate a possible hard right?


As "new" Spock would say; "The Cadets logic is very sound Captain"..........
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
"Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high."

Might take several more years, or decades, of similar events in the Atlantic Basin before NHC decides to extend the season at either end. If the ITCZ, from where a good portion of these early season lower Caribbean storms form (in competition with the E-Pac season and waves feeding off the same source in relatively close proximity) continues to fire off early May and June Atlantic storms, and if sheer also shows a lowering trend in this same time-frame/proximity, an argument can be made that the Atlantic Season should kick off should coincide with the May 15th date for the E-Pac. The uncertainly is quite high at the moment as stated.

Same issue would apply for the back-end of the season but a much harder nut to crack given cooling sst's and higher sheer starting in October at current trends; Definitely don't see them looking at the back end anytime soon (in my remaining lifetime) unless we see a consistent slew of early December storms.


For the question I had nrtiwlnvragn provided exactly the information I was looking for and certainly seems to show that we name a lot more storms than in the past -- but almost all of them are short lived storms that maybe wouldn't have gotten a name in the past.

Link, courtesy of nrtiwlnvragn.
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Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
Quoting 62901IL:

Does that mean he stopped moving?


He's barely moving
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Could Barry's slow down indicate a possible hard right?
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Barry went from 10mph to 6mph in it's forward speed, somewhat of a slow down.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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