Tropical Storm Barry Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

Share this Blog
42
+

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters this afternoon indicates that Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The aircraft measured winds at their flight level of 1000 feet as high as 47 mph, which implies winds of at least 40 mph at the surface, using the usual 10% reduction rule for winds measured at 1000 feet. Barry has a small but growing area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are steadily showing more organization this afternoon, and low-level spiral bands have begun to appear. Wind shear was a moderate 15 knots on Wednesday afternoon, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. Barry is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like Barry and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect Barry will have time to attain sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon near Veracruz, Mexico. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Barry, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a weak or strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of Barry's rains from reaching the U.S. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Barry at 12:40 pm EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Barry's place in history
Barry is the second named storm of June 2013, and its formation date of June 19 is a full six weeks earlier than the usual August 1 date of formation of the season's second storm. Only two hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as three tropical storms form in June: 1936 and 1968. The formation of two Gulf of Mexico storms so early in the year does not necessarily suggest that we will have an active hurricane season. June storms forming in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are typically a harbinger of an active hurricane season, though.

The formation of Tropical Storm Andrea and now Tropical Storm Barry in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been sixteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to six in the nineteen-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 - 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 221 - 171

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

221. WWPR
I'm a bit scared about the Hurricane season here in Puerto Rico this year. Just a Tropical Wave, and I've been without light or water since 5am this morning. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
See everyone tomorrow. Gonna be interesting to see where Barry tops out before landfall. Could end up as a high grade TS but we should know by tonight or in the early am based on Satt derived information. A 50-70 mph range is in the probable numbers......Don't think it is worth splitting hairs though on the issue of whether it might have a chance at a low end Cat 1.

Just a numerical difference of a few MPH at either end of the spectrum but little practical difference between a high grade TS and low grade Cane but the BOC "topograohy" theory is at stake as to how much of spin up can develop.

Please don't come come on here tomorrow saying "I told you so" if it does hit a Cat 1........It would have been a 50/50 bet either way as opposed to a meterological Nostradamus moment......... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Short blog update on Barry.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrMixon:
Rare white buffalo born at Royal Gorge Park following the recent fire.*


Awe! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrMixon:
Rare white buffalo born at Royal Gorge Park following the recent fire.*



Even though 48 out of the 52 commercial buildings at the Royal Gorge Park were destroyed by the recent 3,200-acre fire, all of the animals at the park were saved, and on Saturday one of the park mommas gave birth to a rare white buffalo, which the park has named "Smokey".

Photo and info courtesy of the Royal Gorge Bridge Facebook page.

*White buffalo are extremely rare; the National Bison Association has estimated that they only occur in approximately one out of every 10 million births. -wikipedia

Awww....nice to see new life come forth from devastation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
June 19, 2013 - 20:45 UTCGOES Imager Spectral Difference
June 19, 2013 - 20:45 UTC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon, everyone. Made it to Panama City through several thunderstorms, but it's mostly clear and breezy here. Doesn't look like Barry will turn into the big hurricane that will flatten PCB but, surprisingly, I guessed right about when Barry would become a TS. I'm almost never right. I suspect Barry was really a TS earlier this morning, but the NHC didn't want to call it without recon data to back them up. I'm now guessing that Barry will top out at 55 mph, and it will spend the next 24 hours over water as it will head west a little slower than current models predict. I probably won't be right about that either.

Time for a nap, dinner and then a trip to the hot tub. It's a hard life, but someone has to live it. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rare white buffalo born at Royal Gorge Park following the recent fire.*



Even though 48 out of the 52 commercial buildings at the Royal Gorge Park were destroyed by the recent 3,200-acre fire, all of the animals at the park were saved, and on Saturday one of the park mommas gave birth to a rare white buffalo, which the park has named "Smokey".

Photo and info courtesy of the Royal Gorge Bridge Facebook page.

*White buffalo are extremely rare; the National Bison Association has estimated that they only occur in approximately one out of every 10 million births. -wikipedia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Not yet...but it will be soon..gotta love those 90 and higher water temps in tha gulf.


Not to be left off the rocket fuel train:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Source to enlarge
Western Europe right now. Tomorrow we (near Frankfurt, or, on this map: Wiesbaden) are in with this kind of stuff (or worse). Expect wide spreaded severe warnings. But before that we're going to enjoy another very tropical night in Germany ;) I'm sitting here with my feet in a bowl of cold water, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:


Ya know they say its Rocket Fuel..



Not yet...but it will be soon..gotta love those 90 and higher water temps in tha gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How about a little 'Barry' Manilow to lighten the mood on the blog?

Calm down there Wash...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
204. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:
Its that hot watah..cyclones luv tha stuff..:)


Ya know they say its Rocket Fuel..



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mikatnight:


Donna was much worse than Charlie in overall impact.
And she does still hold the record:
"Hurricane Donna holds the record for retaining major hurricane status (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) in the Atlantic Basin for the longest period of time."

"Hurricane Donna was a very destructive hurricane that caused extensive damage from the Lesser Antilles to New England. At least 364 people were killed by the hurricane and over $900 million in damage were done (1960 USD)"


I remember Donna, Sept. 1960. I was just 16 y.o. and my dad was in the hospital. I had to put up the shutters and secure our Lake Worth home for the storm. It was a pretty good learning experience. Donna managed to get most of FL before heading up the east coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gearsts hasn't gone anything in the NW corner as all the action has been in the eastern part of PR. It seems like a little twist in the radar echoes just north of PR.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Barry Models, good to see a consensus, unlike some "D" storm in the past ;)



Enhanced infrared satellite loop of Barry:



Carribean & Gulf visible satellite loop:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
199. wxmod


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Barry.... Chantal will be next....

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
197. JLPR2
Quoting allancalderini:
Did Caribboy receive the rain he want?


Not sure, but he must have gotten something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser19:
Well this storm is looking better with every frame!!!
Its that hot watah..cyclones luv tha stuff..:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Billion Pixel Mars Rover Image Panorama
Just a Billion.?....:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Surfs up!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Yes. XD These images always look scary, even when it is only a blob.

That ULL to the north of PR sure gave a push to the TW, but the recent appearance of a weak 850mb vort is interesting.

Even though the heaviest rain missed me I am almost a 1 inch of rain for today.
Did Caribboy receive the rain he want?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Billion Pixel Mars Rover Image Panorama
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
315 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MEAGHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA...
NORTHEASTERN BROADWATER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL GALLATIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

* UNTIL 345 PM MDT

* AT 313 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL BROADWATER COUNTY...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE MOST DANGEROUS PORTION OF THE STORM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER
RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL MEAGHER...NORTHEASTERN BROADWATER AND
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL GALLATIN COUNTIES.

THIS ALSO INCLUDES HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 30.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Windy here....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:


You still looking for rain ? You can have some that I get ...


Lol I look for the rain every time from january to december! Send me all the rain you want..

We are only getting light continuous rain right now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Brian Norcross just discussed the MJO forecast on TWC (Positive in W atlantic, Carib and GOMEX next week)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TS Barry RGB Loop

click image for loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
182. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Imagine if the TUTT wasn't in the area.


I guess there would be two possible outcomes if the TUTT wasn't there, 1. it wouldn't look as impressive since it wouldn't be enhanced by it or 2. it would be a storm. :\

Yep, pretty much polar opposites.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BBC weather video: World weather stories make the headlines
19 June 2013 Last updated at 14:49
From record-breaking heat in Alaska to flooding rains in Mexico, BBC Weather's Ben Rich takes us on a tour around the world's weather stories.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Well this storm is looking better with every frame!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Doppler22:
TWC just showed another wildfire in Jefferson County, CO... oh my, I hope it goes out quickly




The Chair Rock Fire has prompted evacuation orders for over 400 homes. Temperatures near Conifer are expected to get as high as 84 degrees, according to the National Weather Service. Winds as strong as 23 mph are expected to last throughout the afternoon and well into Wednesday night.

More info here.


The fire is approximately in the red circle. The two blue lines show recommended evacuation routes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:


I would give it a little more if it stays in the east Caribbean .. its dead if it goes into west Caribbean

The wave will be entering a area of favorable shear.I don't see it becoming anything though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm off for work (help me, lord)... see y'all later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Obituary
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm Barry's outer rain bands are seen on the Brownsville Long Range radar

Brownsville
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
172. VR46L
Quoting CaribBoy:
2 days ago, both the NHC and San Juan NWS said the tropical wave would move into the SE CARIBBEAN AND ABC (Aruba Bonaire Curacao) Islands...

Well... look where it is now. Obviously, that was a significant bust forecast.



You still looking for rain ? You can have some that I get ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't like receiving nor giving crow, to be honest. ;)

Forecasting involves being right and wrong.

At least I've done a lot better than I did with Barbara...



Well some systems just have a mind of there own, for example, Hurricane Katrina, who thought that she would become a Category Hurricane 1 before making landfall in Florida and who thought that she would make landfall as a Category 3, after being predicted as a Category 5 landfall directly on New Orleans, sometimes the storm gets the best of the blogger, meteorologist and citizens in harms way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 221 - 171

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.