TD 2 Slowly Organizing, Headed Towards Veracruz, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico--the Bay of Campeche--at 9 mph. The storm has a small area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Mexican radar and satellite loops. The thunderstorms are slowly showing more organization this morning, but the storm has little low-level spiral banding, poor upper-level outflow, and is fighting dry air on its west side. However, the Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect TD 2 will have enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry before making landfall late Thursday morning near Veracruz, Mexico. Wind shear was a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Wednesday morning, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. TD 2 is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like TD 2 and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity, and it would not surprise me if TD 2 intensified suddenly into a 60 mph tropical storm before making landfall. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from TD 2, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a tropical depression or as a strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to arrive in TD 2 near 2 pm EDT today. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 2 at 8:12 am EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Marco on October 6, 2008. Marco was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA.

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Looking nice.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53511
Tornado tracks

NE is the way.

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Quoting Patrap:


Michigan Flooding (DR-4121)
Incident period: April 16, 2013 to May 14, 2013
Major Disaster Declaration declared on June 18, 2013

Oh my god! Hope the inhabitants of Michigan stay ok.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
While waiting for recon to take off and fly toward TD2, I'm downloading radar images from July 19, 2006 storm event that hit St. Louis hard. That storm had some of the strongest winds I've ever seen so far in my young life at around 90 to 100 mph. Wondering how fast the radar is showing...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7981
Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)





It looks pretty healthy despite the hostile envirment.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
current updated time stamp

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53511
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)




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Quoting Autistic2:
Got it now, goggled Tom Paris. It's a si fi thing.

Mr. Paris, warp 6.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602


sunrise earlier this am
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Got it now, goggled Tom Paris. It's a si fi thing.
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Mr. Paris is in TD 2, exploring the storm.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
TD 2 still a depression...expect it to be Barry soon.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
Quoting AussieStorm:


Read the link, it's 100% real.


Sorry did not notice the link. Running on 12 hours sleep. (too much) Took Benadryl and on 2 cup of coffee....
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Quoting hydrus: [#61]

HURDAT also has new figures for the 1947 Pompano Beach Hurricane which significantly reduced the sustained wind speed, if not the category.


Reprinted from the 'History' section of the Hurricane Protocol 2013 guide:

Most sources continue to state this storm is the 4th strongest hurricane to ever strike the US, but according to the Hurricane Reanalysis Project (HURDAT), the "landfall intensity" of 1947–Storm 4 (aka: Ft. Lauderdale Hurricane/Pompano Hurricane/Hurricane George) was 130 mph (115 Kt) - substantially less than the 155 mph (135 Kt) formerly believed. It remains a cat 4, but a low end instead of a high end. The cyclone windfield was 275 miles wide, and the radius of maximum wind was about 20 nm, which is roughly equivalent to an eye diameter of 30 nm. Coordinates from Sept. 17 at 1630 UTC (11:30 am local time) of Lat. 26.2 N, Lon. 80.1 W, place the center a half mile from the ocean, directly between Atlantic & Oakland Park Blvd (Pompano Beach). Despite the reanalysis, the cyclone did produce sustained winds of 122 mph at the Hillsboro Inlet Light near Pompano Beach, and was the highest measured wind speed recorded in the state of Florida until Hurricane Andrew in 1992. An 11-foot storm surge was reported along the Florida coast and large stretches of State Highway A1A between Palm Beach and Boynton Beach were washed out. Between Sloans Curve and the Lake Worth Municipal Casino Building, 5 miles of the beachfront highway were left barren, as “just an empty strip of beach...as though no road existed there.” The road was eventually rebuilt about 200 yards further west; sections of the old road can still be seen just offshore. The historic casino building itself, built in 1922, was unroofed, its dance floor flooded, and itself condemned, later to be rebuilt after the storm. At Lake Okeechobee a 20 foot storm surge was reported along the south shore between Clewiston and Moore Haven, nearly overrunning the Herbert Hoover Dike. It was also a slow moving storm (10 mph), producing up to 10 inches of rain, exacerbating existing flood conditions across all of southernmost Florida. Rainfall records were set in many areas - some of which still stand today. The hurricane killed 17 people in Florida.
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92. MTWX
Quoting barbamz:

Source. Ummh, this very severe storm should hit Paris soon ...

Loop


Wow! If you turn on the lightning feature, that is quite a storm!!!
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Quoting Autistic2:


?? what did I miss?

Well, you missed the map that barbamz posted.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
Quoting Autistic2:


Is that photo shop lightening? If not just wow


Read the link, it's 100% real.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53511
Quoting VR46L:


Sorry Hydrus Never saw it till now ... Its a stone splitting 55 with cloudy skies :) How is it with ya ?
Gorgeous.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting 62901IL:

Since Tom paris lives in paris, he will warp voyager out of paris when the storm hits.


?? what did I miss?
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the article says that last year's greenland icemelt was so unexpected that nobody thought to blame it on global warming. i'm kind of amazed at the geewhiz tone they take. and if i'm reading it right, it's another attempt to deny global warming.

Our research found that a ‘heat dome’ of warm southerly winds over the ice sheet led to widespread surface melting.” This was not predicted by the climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and perhaps that indicated a deficiency in those models, he suggested.

The event seemed to be linked to changes in a phenomenon known to oceanographers and meteorologists as the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), another well-observed high pressure system called the Greenland Blocking Index, and the polar jet stream, all of which sent warm southerly winds sweeping over Greenland’s western coast."

sorry if this is offtopic, is there a better blog for this?
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Quoting barbamz:

Source. Ummh, this very severe storm should hit Paris soon ...

Loop

Since Tom paris lives in paris, he will warp voyager out of paris when the storm hits.
Yeah i know it was offtopic.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1602
Quoting AussieStorm:
“A beast”: Shocking, enlightening supercell thunderstorm photos from Nebraska



Is that photo shop lightening? If not just wow
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Quoting Grothar:



That is unusual. Quite a storm.



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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH

I say 50MPH



G. Small but powerful TS. 68 mph Bay of campchie and all
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“A beast”: Shocking, enlightening supercell thunderstorm photos from Nebraska

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting hydrus:
How is the weather in Ireland today?


Sorry Hydrus Never saw it till now ... Its a stone splitting 55 with cloudy skies :) How is it with ya ?
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TD 2 Looks like Barry to me. We could use a nice tropical drenching (TD,TS, NO H) here in St. Augustine. Everything but the cutso is turning brown.
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What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH

I say 50MPH
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I think that td2 is already a TS but they will not upgrade it until recon goes in and by then it will be at a 45 mph storm.
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Good Morning from America's Letf Coast
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Quoting barbamz:

Source. Ummh, this very severe storm should hit Paris soon ...

Loop



That is unusual. Quite a storm.
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NWS Missoula ‏@NWSMissoula 1m
thunderstorm with frequent lightning; gusty winds heading to #Salmon, next 15 min; when thunder roars, go indoors #idwx
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
I think you guys are right. Looking good.


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Source. Ummh, this very severe storm should hit Paris soon ...

Loop
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 53 Comments: 5914
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


This cam is where you are Boy. It looks rainy. Here it has been with scattered showers in San Juan all morning long and it looks like it will be this way for the rest of today.





The cam actually shows distant storms... I don't think they will reach us.

Yes the sky is gray but not much is happening (only 1/2 inch during the night and early this am)

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Quoting CaribBoy:
Looks like even the Virgin Islands received decent rain.


It's been off and on. While I was on the bay this morning, the darkness was more between here (St. Thomas) and St. Croix.

Lindy
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Looks like a big blob to me, who knows though -- it might actually be approaching tropical storm status.
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Quoting mikatnight:


Y'all have tornado reports earlier? Thought I saw a radar post on this morning's blog with a vortex on it.
Just the radar going crazy.
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Quoting mcdsara1:
Newbie question, how do I get the live recon tracking to work on my ipad?


The one you're thinking of requires Google Earth, which I'm pretty sure can be installed on an iPad, but regular live-updating web images can be found here which are very easy to view in a web browser and require no effort to access.
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Looks like even the Virgin Islands received decent rain.
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Quoting HurricaneAndre:
There departing right now.


Alright, thanks.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


In St Martin.


This cam is where you are Boy. It looks rainy. Here it has been with scattered showers in San Juan all morning long and it looks like it will be this way for the rest of today.



Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14210
Quoting yqt1001:
When is recon investigating the system?
There departing right now.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2700
Quoting kingcane:
Anyone think the wave near PR will make it to Florida? Seems to have some good convection associated with it.


FRI-TUE...STILL AWAITING 00Z ECMWF AS OF THIS WRITING BUT TREND OF
GFS OVER THE WEEKEND INDICATES SELY FLOW COMPONENT STARTING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF BY FRIDAY AND BACKING MORE TO SE-E THIS WEEKEND.
MAY HAVE A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE SAT DUE TO AN EASTERLY WAVE
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. NORTHERN/INTERIOR SECTIONS FAVORED FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON FRI. HAVE MAINLY KEPT IN SCATTERED POPS
DAYTIME AND SLIGHT POPS AT NIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS MAY NEED SOME TWEAKS DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF INFLUENCE
WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 80S COAST AND NEAR 90/LOW 90S INTERIOR...OVERNIGHT
MINS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.


NWS in MLB had this to say this morning. They seem to be in the camp of it going S of CentFL so SFL could be in the mix...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"The 1941 to 1945 reanalysis of the Atlantic hurricane database is now available. Four new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period. Notable hurricanes include the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane, which affected North Carolina, the mid-Atlantic states, and New England, killing 390 people. This hurricane was downgraded from a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 3 at landfall in New York to a Category 2. Also in 1944, a late season Caribbean hurricane that struck Cuba causing 315 fatalities has been upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 major hurricane at landfall. Additionally, in September 1945 a major hurricane struck Homestead, Florida - bearing many similarities in size, track, and impact to 1992's Hurricane Andrew - and was upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 at landfall."

My friend was living on Boca Grande when the Cuba/Florida Hurricane struck S.W.Florida. He said the wind was absolutely incredible.. A large and intense storm with a 163 mph gust measured at Sarasota. Coincidentally, Havana also measured a peak gust at 163 mph.
Costliest U.S. Atlantic hurricanes 1900-2005
Total estimated property damage, adjusted for wealth normalization[5] Rank Hurricane Season Cost (2005 USD)
1 "Miami" 1926 $157 billion
2 "Galveston" 1900 $99.4 billion
3 Katrina 2005 $81.0 billion
4 "Galveston" 1915 $68.0 billion
5 Andrew 1992 $55.8 billion
6 "New England" 1938 $39.2 billion
7 "Cuba%u2013Florida" 1944 $38.7 billion
8 "Okeechobee" 1928 $33.6 billion
9 Donna 1960 $26.8 billion
10 Camille 1969 $21.2 billion
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting Gearsts:
Where do you live?


In St Martin.
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When is recon investigating the system?
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Quoting stormchaser19:
Thanks Dr.Masters......Today i have one year as member of Wunderground Community, has been a pleasure be part of this community. hope continue here for the years to come.

BTW .. BTW..Cariboy take advantage of the rain now!!!


Unfortunately I haven't got much :( (less than one inch) and the GFS is always very quick when it comes to bring back the SAL and boring weather.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.