TD 2 Slowly Organizing, Headed Towards Veracruz, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico--the Bay of Campeche--at 9 mph. The storm has a small area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Mexican radar and satellite loops. The thunderstorms are slowly showing more organization this morning, but the storm has little low-level spiral banding, poor upper-level outflow, and is fighting dry air on its west side. However, the Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect TD 2 will have enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry before making landfall late Thursday morning near Veracruz, Mexico. Wind shear was a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Wednesday morning, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. TD 2 is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like TD 2 and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity, and it would not surprise me if TD 2 intensified suddenly into a 60 mph tropical storm before making landfall. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from TD 2, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a tropical depression or as a strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to arrive in TD 2 near 2 pm EDT today. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 2 at 8:12 am EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Marco on October 6, 2008. Marco was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA.

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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Niņo regions bordering La Nina.
Niņo 1 2
-1.34
Niņo 3
-.89
Niņo 3 4
-.43
Niņo 4
-.19
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I say 50.01% it will be Barry when HH get in there.

I say there is a 100.00% chance it will be Barry when they get in there
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Quoting hydrus:
Does not surprise me. Some of those numbers are close.


Key words are "wealth normalization" so they account for the 100 year inflation of the dollar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I say 50.01% it will be Barry when HH get in there.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)




Blobcon..Lol.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
ok my HH data is updating now....took a while...we good to go
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting FOREX:

b

That's what I chose!
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
151. FOREX
3:38 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH
E. TD

b
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
150. hydrus
3:37 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting RyanSperrey:


These numbers are quite a bit off, Katrina damages were much much higher, nearly 200 billion.
Does not surprise me. Some of those numbers are close.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
149. LostTomorrows
3:36 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting biff4ugo:
Is anybody else angry that the new Superman movie shows the public that the best place to take shelter in a hurricane is under an overpass!!!!!! Or that an overpass is even a good option.!?
What kind of dumb writer, director combination thought THAT was a good idea?!??
The movie needs a disclaimer before they get someone killed and/or seriously sued.


It's a movie... if people decide to take shelter under an overpass because they saw it in a movie well... then those are stupid people. Sorry to put it bluntly, but there are many mediums by which you can attain the appropriate information in the case of a hurricane. I think you're overreacting haha.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602
148. TropicTraveler
3:36 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:
“A beast”: Shocking, enlightening supercell thunderstorm photos from Nebraska


Pictures like this should be meat and drink to the UFO believers - I've seen many a lenticular cloud with its nice sharp edges being touted as a UFO.
Gorgeous Photo!!!
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
147. daddyjames
3:35 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
G' morning everyone,

Here in OK it's getting warmer (mid-80's right now)
, still humid, with a slight chance of rain. Yesterday, many regions in the So. Plains under severe/extreme drought received a soaking - lets hope that continues today.

Won't be around much today (breathe a collective sigh of relief, as I have noticed the toll yesterday's blog maelstrom has taken . . .).

Well, first to admit, I will be dining on crow.

Did not think that the "little atmospheric engine that could" aka TD2 would make it all the way to the BOC, much less acquire a name.

Thanks for breakfast :D.

Have a fantastic day all!
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
146. galvestonhurricane
3:35 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH
E. TD
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 539
145. Doppler22
3:35 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone getting data from HH on Google Earth? All I have is takeoff info.

I am... I have the flight around Cat Island right about now
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3772
144. biff4ugo
3:35 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
P.S. Pluto,
see Dr. Ricky Rood's blog for a good place for ice sheet melting and climate change discourse/flame wars.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1578
143. MrMixon
3:35 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
For those who might've missed this last night,

As Dr. Masters blogged, there was a small tornado at DIA (Denver International Airport) yesterday.


If you want to hear just how freaked out the control tower operators get when a tornado hits their airport (as it turns out, not very freaked out at all) you can listen to archived ATC recordings like so...

1) go to: http://www.liveatc.net/archive.php

2) Click yesterday (June 18)

3) Click "KDEN Tower" or one of the other "KDEN..." channels (So far I've found the most chatter on "KDEN Public Safety")

4) Click 2000-2030Z (the zulu time of the storm, which I figured out from Dr. Masters radar image of the funnel cloud, which says "20:22 UTC")

5) Click "Submit"

You'll get a page with a little audio player at the top. Depending on the KDEN channel you choose the activity starts around the 15 to 20 minute mark.

Here's a quote from the Tower conversation, which you can either DOWNLOAD HERE or play in your browser using the method I describe above.

Mercury 3510: "That funnel cloud was visible to us coming in on one six left"

It's at about the 21:20 mark. Thereafter the control tower starts announcing a "microburst alert" to all incoming/outgoing traffic. Some taxiing planes are advised to turn around and return to the terminal.


If you go to the KDEN Public Safety recording, which again, you can DOWNLOAD HERE or fetch in your browser using my instructions above, you'll find a couple of interesting quotes, though it's all delivered with an impressive lack of passion:


16:19: "Not seeing an actual funnel cloud, but there is definite tornado activity on the ground just east of the perimeter fence. There's an awful lot of construction workers out here that probably need to get picked up."

18:11 "I am getting heavy hail on the east side."

23:40 "There's another funnel cloud starting to turn right next to the terminal, east side."
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
142. whitewabit (Mod)
3:34 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone getting data from HH on Google Earth? All I have is takeoff info.


They just took off .. it will be awhile before they get to the southern part of the gulf ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31556
141. 62901IL
3:34 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting taco2me61:

I also say 50MPH :o)

Taco :o)

I say 45mph.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
140. taco2me61
3:34 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH

I say 50MPH

I also say 50MPH :o)

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
139. 62901IL
3:33 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Whoa the blog is flying.
So is recon.

I give this a 40% chance to become Barry.

Blog is not quite in hyperdrive yet.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
138. GeorgiaStormz
3:32 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Whoa the blog is flying.
So is recon.

I give this a 47% chance to become Barry.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
137. 62901IL
3:31 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting barbamz:

Webcam Paris/France (looking to the northwest). Storm is moving in now.

Get us out of here, Mr. Paris.
i am still going offtopic.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
136. Grothar
3:31 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
135. Levi32
3:31 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Live webcam of the Eiffel Tower. We might see some lightning strikes if we're lucky.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
134. barbamz
3:30 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

Webcam Paris/France (looking to the northwest; new shot every 3 seconds; website with metereological readings). Storm is moving in now.



Map of lightning
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6021
133. 62901IL
3:30 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone getting data from HH on Google Earth? All I have id takeoff info.

I dunno. I don't have google earth.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
132. RyanSperrey
3:30 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting hydrus:
My friend was living on Boca Grande when the Cuba/Florida Hurricane struck S.W.Florida. He said the wind was absolutely incredible.. A large and intense storm with a 163 mph gust measured at Sarasota. Coincidentally, Havana also measured a peak gust at 163 mph.
Costliest U.S. Atlantic hurricanes 1900-2005
Total estimated property damage, adjusted for wealth normalization[5] Rank Hurricane Season Cost (2005 USD)
1 "Miami" 1926 $157 billion
2 "Galveston" 1900 $99.4 billion
3 Katrina 2005 $81.0 billion
4 "Galveston" 1915 $68.0 billion
5 Andrew 1992 $55.8 billion
6 "New England" 1938 $39.2 billion
7 "Cuba%u2013Florida" 1944 $38.7 billion
8 "Okeechobee" 1928 $33.6 billion
9 Donna 1960 $26.8 billion
10 Camille 1969 $21.2 billion


These numbers are quite a bit off, Katrina damages were much much higher, nearly 200 billion.
Member Since: October 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 281
131. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:30 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Anyone getting data from HH on Google Earth? All I have is takeoff info.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
130. 62901IL
3:29 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Plane departs from Biloxi.

URNT15 KNHC 191524
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20130619
151500 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +274 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151530 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +274 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151600 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +275 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151630 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +275 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
151700 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +274 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151730 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +270 +227 360000 000 /// /// 23
151800 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +270 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
151830 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +270 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
151900 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +271 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151930 3025N 08855W 0158 ///// 0147 +271 +232 311002 004 /// /// 23
152000 3024N 08856W 0101 00023 0141 +261 +234 315007 008 /// /// 03
152030 3023N 08857W 9908 00202 0148 +244 +227 313009 011 /// /// 03
152100 3022N 08858W 9828 00293 0161 +239 +224 299009 010 /// /// 03
152130 3021N 08858W 9826 00292 0159 +237 +223 298009 010 /// /// 03
152200 3019N 08859W 9785 00310 0144 +232 +220 294012 013 /// /// 03
152230 3018N 08900W 9387 00671 0136 +211 +185 296015 016 /// /// 03
152300 3016N 08901W 9114 00951 0157 +191 +155 294017 017 /// /// 03
152330 3015N 08902W 8803 01229 0149 +174 +123 286018 019 /// /// 03
152400 3013N 08903W 8360 01682 0159 +148 +079 277017 017 /// /// 03
152430 3012N 08904W 7972 02082 0159 +129 +004 270016 017 /// /// 03
$$

Our time of judgement is nearing.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
129. Tropicsweatherpr
3:29 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Plane departs from Biloxi.

URNT15 KNHC 191524
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20130619
151500 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +274 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151530 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +274 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151600 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +275 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151630 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +275 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
151700 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +274 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151730 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +270 +227 360000 000 /// /// 23
151800 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +270 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
151830 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +270 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
151900 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +271 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151930 3025N 08855W 0158 ///// 0147 +271 +232 311002 004 /// /// 23
152000 3024N 08856W 0101 00023 0141 +261 +234 315007 008 /// /// 03
152030 3023N 08857W 9908 00202 0148 +244 +227 313009 011 /// /// 03
152100 3022N 08858W 9828 00293 0161 +239 +224 299009 010 /// /// 03
152130 3021N 08858W 9826 00292 0159 +237 +223 298009 010 /// /// 03
152200 3019N 08859W 9785 00310 0144 +232 +220 294012 013 /// /// 03
152230 3018N 08900W 9387 00671 0136 +211 +185 296015 016 /// /// 03
152300 3016N 08901W 9114 00951 0157 +191 +155 294017 017 /// /// 03
152330 3015N 08902W 8803 01229 0149 +174 +123 286018 019 /// /// 03
152400 3013N 08903W 8360 01682 0159 +148 +079 277017 017 /// /// 03
152430 3012N 08904W 7972 02082 0159 +129 +004 270016 017 /// /// 03
$$
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14315
128. GeorgiaStormz
3:29 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Awesome picture, GS!! :) I saw that on one of the Yahoo articles earlier.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

The Jarrell tornado family sure stand out on the SW grouping.


And the carolina and alabama outbreaks in 2011
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
126. biff4ugo
3:28 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Is anybody else angry that the new Superman movie shows the public that the best place to take shelter in a TORNADO (edit) is under an overpass!!!!!! Or that an overpass is even a good option.!?
What kind of dumb writer, director combination thought THAT was a good idea?!??
The movie needs a disclaimer before they get someone killed and/or seriously sued.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1578
125. HuracanTaino
3:28 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)




uggg, lots of rain for paradise, that wave is looking vigorous for june...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 913
124. 62901IL
3:26 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting SouthernIllinois:





looking forward to a nice day.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
122. mikatnight
3:24 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)






Ahh, but you got post #100! Gonna be your lucky day...
Oh, BTW, I made a new post.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
121. Bluestorm5
3:23 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:

The Jarrell tornado family sure stand out on the SW grouping.
And Joplin in SE grouping. Really awesome graphic these people credited made.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
120. 62901IL
3:23 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
A few images of TD 2





does anyone see them?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
119. SFLWeatherman
3:23 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4672
117. SFLWeatherman
3:23 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
144HR GFS big wave coming into the Caribbean
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4672
116. 1900hurricane
3:22 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
tornado tracks


The Jarrell tornado family sure stand out on the SW grouping.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
115. Patrap
3:21 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
113. Bluestorm5
3:21 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
tornado tracks

Very impressive graphic!!!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
112. 62901IL
3:20 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting Patrap:
02L WV

click image fer loop



nice
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
111. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:20 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)







twas the usual suspect subject matter...lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
110. CaicosRetiredSailor
3:20 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)







I am contributing all the hostility I can manage to its environment. : )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
109. Patrap
3:20 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
02L WV

click image fer loop


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
108. 62901IL
3:19 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Looking nice.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.