TD 2 Slowly Organizing, Headed Towards Veracruz, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico--the Bay of Campeche--at 9 mph. The storm has a small area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Mexican radar and satellite loops. The thunderstorms are slowly showing more organization this morning, but the storm has little low-level spiral banding, poor upper-level outflow, and is fighting dry air on its west side. However, the Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect TD 2 will have enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry before making landfall late Thursday morning near Veracruz, Mexico. Wind shear was a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Wednesday morning, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. TD 2 is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like TD 2 and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity, and it would not surprise me if TD 2 intensified suddenly into a 60 mph tropical storm before making landfall. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from TD 2, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a tropical depression or as a strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to arrive in TD 2 near 2 pm EDT today. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 2 at 8:12 am EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Marco on October 6, 2008. Marco was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA.

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bappit:

What buoy? Those could be local winds from thunderstorm down drafts. Dunno without a link.

3 Buoys in the area.

Link

Link

Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A buoy off Veracruz is reporting sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 35 mph. Considering this is well away from the tight center of circulation and not within any storms, it's a good chance the winds in the storms over the center are sustained tropical storm-force.



Station VERV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.202N 96.113W
06/19/2013 1600 UTC
Winds: N (350°) at 27.0 kts gusting to 29.9
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.0 °F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ricki13th:


The Upper Low is shear it apart it also looks like it will stick around for the rest of the month. Once the MJO pulse comes back to this region it may lift north allowing lighter winds aloft.
I think is normal for this time of the year.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1509
2013JUN19 161500 2.3 1006.6/ +0.0 / 33.0 2.3 2.5 4.0 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -65.36 -49.28 CRVBND N/A 19.58 94.58 FCST
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2525
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 16:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 2 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 16:24Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 25.5N 89.9W
Location: 310 miles (498 km) to the S (178°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -46°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,590 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 12 knots (~ 13.8mph)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting Gearsts:
Look again.
I have a hunch that Florida will be visited by at least a couple of tropical cyclones this year...Naturally, I hope I,m wrong.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20518
Quoting Gearsts:
Look again.


The Upper Low is shear it apart it also looks like it will stick around for the rest of the month. Once the MJO pulse comes back to this region it may lift north allowing lighter winds aloft.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A buoy off Veracruz is reporting sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 35 mph. Considering this is well away from the tight center of circulation and not within any storms, it's a good chance the winds in the storms over the center are sustained tropical storm-force.

What buoy? Those could be local winds from thunderstorm down drafts. Dunno without a link.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TylerStanfield:

I give it a 32.78294622 multiplied by 2 plus 10.52332 minus 2.899 divided by 3 plus 32.3333446 % of it becoming Barry.
LOLOL.....32.2889886809%

But I only made it through 9th Grade....so whatever....LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5135
Quoting Gearsts:
Look again.


The TUTT is well defined.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14048
Good Morning, Recon now out to investigate 02L. Though they would leave a little earlier. Anyways there is a good chance this could be Barry and continue to strengthen upon landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Too hot for President Obama three hours ago in Berlin, lol. (33C)
pic1
pic2.

You see I try to entertain you with European weather while waiting for HH ... BBL
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5677
Quoting Ed22:
What about that tropical wave to northeast of leeward island in the lesser Antilles, that tropical wave that they in a hostile environment but that could change though its looks impressive in a unfravourable environment. If it stay that way the NHC could give a 10% chance of become tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours back to tropical deppression two could strengthened rapidly if it do so like tropical storm Andrea we could be looking between 55 to 70 MPH winds the system has the next 12 to 36 hours to do so. So far to me its already a tropical storm Barry by looking different satellite images.
Look again.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1509
For those who tend to believe every bit of Recon data.....


NHC's Use of Aircraft Data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
193. Ed22
What about that tropical wave to northeast of leeward island in the lesser Antilles, that tropical wave that they in a hostile environment but that could change though its looks impressive in a unfravourable environment. If it stay that way the NHC could give a 10% chance of become tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours back to tropical deppression two could strengthened rapidly if it do so like tropical storm Andrea we could be looking between 55 to 70 MPH winds the system has the next 12 to 36 hours to do so. So far to me its already a tropical storm Barry by looking different satellite images.
Member Since: June 13, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 109

Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2525
Quoting TylerStanfield:

I give it a 32.78294622 multiplied by 2 plus 10.52332 minus 2.899 divided by 3 plus 32.3333446 % of it becoming Barry.


I think you have nailed it!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5135
Quoting 1900hurricane:

You can find it here
Thanks for the link!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
D'oh!!!
It is after 2am here, I'm waiting for the 1st pass then going to bed.
You might be up for a hour and half at least...
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Quoting HurricaneAndre:
No,they flew in Andrea.Plus Test runs.
D'oh!!!
It is after 2am here, I'm waiting for the 1st pass then going to bed.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2525
Quoting barbamz:


Interesting circulation off the coast of France. If waters only would be 10 degrees Celsius warmer ;)



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
Wednesday 19jun13 Time: 1135 UTC
Latitude: 19.83 Longitude: -94.49
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 6 [130]
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------
| Estimated MSLP: 999 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 42 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.36
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.88
Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.38
RMW: 111 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1010 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 06 Day: 19 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2525
Quoting AussieStorm:
1st flight of the year.
No,they flew in Andrea.Plus Test runs.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2525
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Assuming he meant it to be solved sequentially and not by the standard order of operations, that would be 56.73008208%.

And if I got that wrong, then it's a bad sign for the class I'm about to attend... :P

Lol
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1109
Quoting AussieStorm:
1st flight of the year.

There were flights into Andrea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Exhibit A there coming.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2525
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
2013JUN19 151500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.4 3.9 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -61.46 -40.40 CRVBND N/A 19.60 94.51 FCST
Uh?!
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1509
A buoy off Veracruz is reporting sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 35 mph. Considering this is well away from the tight center of circulation and not within any storms, it's a good chance the winds in the storms over the center are sustained tropical storm-force.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Interesting circulation off the coast of France. If waters only would be 10 degrees Celsius warmer ;)

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5677
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
ok my HH data is updating now....took a while...we good to go
1st flight of the year.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
2013JUN19 151500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.4 3.9 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -61.46 -40.40 CRVBND N/A 19.60 94.51 FCST
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2525
Quoting 62901IL:

And what percentage would that be?

Assuming he meant it to be solved sequentially and not by the standard order of operations, that would be 56.73008208%.

And if I got that wrong, then it's a bad sign for the class I'm about to attend... :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 62901IL:

And what percentage would that be?


The same thing hahahah.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 62901IL:

And what percentage would that be?
about 75%.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2525
Quoting TylerStanfield:

I give it a 32.78294622 multiplied by 2 plus 10.52332 minus 2.899 divided by 3 plus 32.3333446 % of it becoming Barry.

And what percentage would that be?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1592
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I say 50.01% it will be Barry when HH get in there.

I give it a 32.78294622 multiplied by 2 plus 10.52332 minus 2.899 divided by 3 plus 32.3333446 % of it becoming Barry.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1109
Quoting Hurrihistory:
Where can I find this Reanalysis?

You can find it here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog is never going to go into hyperdrive.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1592
So I was looking over the old radar files from July 19, 2006, which is the night derecho ran through Illinois and Missouri going southwestern direction. Storm was heading toward Indiana when it made a turn from eastern to southwestern direction somewhere over northern Illinois. This derecho struck St. Louis area suddenly, and surprised all of us as it came into the area from NE instead of SW. 40,000 fans at Busch Stadium watching Cardinals/Braves was caught by surprise as 80 to 90 mph winds went through the stadium in matter of seconds. Couple of boards got tossed into the stand and injured 40 fans enough to be sent to hospital. Derecho would reach me few minutes later in SW St. Louis County and delivered 80-100 mph wind gusts. GR2A would say that storm had 74 knots winds when it hit me which is 85 mph winds, which is what I thought I saw that night. Derecho would end up being the worst storm I've been though (still is the worst one today). Derecho also caused St. Louis the most costly damage from a thunderstorm ever and million of people lost power (I didn't lose it) during one of those heat waves. It was brutal for the locals to live through that heat without the power. Another derecho (weaker one) would later hit St. Louis area again 2 days later on July 21, 2006. As result of that derecho, Busch Stadium went under major safety changes including storm shelter areas, radar on scoreboard during event, parthership with NWS St. Louis through StormReady program which is the first major sports stadium to do so in United States, and many more. Here's the radar image as it hit me (not pretty looking derecho, but it did packed a punch!):

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Quoting Ed22:
To me tropical depression two has become tropical storm Barry it could well update in the11am forecast. Satellite imagery show a slow organising centre of the system but its getting there, therefore NHC should be out their from this morning investigating the system. Their be a second reconnaissance aircraft to be on standby the system could be between 45 to 60 mph.

The 11 am EDT advisory was already issued. The next update is at 2pm EDT.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1109
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"The 1941 to 1945 reanalysis of the Atlantic hurricane database is now available. Four new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period. Notable hurricanes include the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane, which affected North Carolina, the mid-Atlantic states, and New England, killing 390 people. This hurricane was downgraded from a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 3 at landfall in New York to a Category 2. Also in 1944, a late season Caribbean hurricane that struck Cuba causing 315 fatalities has been upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 major hurricane at landfall. Additionally, in September 1945 a major hurricane struck Homestead, Florida - bearing many similarities in size, track, and impact to 1992's Hurricane Andrew - and was upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 at landfall."

Where can I find this Reanalysis?
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165. Ed22
To me tropical depression two has become tropical storm Barry it could well update in the11am forecast. Satellite imagery show a slow organising centre of the system but its getting there, therefore NHC should be out their from this morning investigating the system. Their be a second reconnaissance aircraft to be on standby the system could be between 45 to 60 mph.
Member Since: June 13, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 109
Given it's current speed I'd say it has time to get to 50 mph, so C.

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NHC has changed the track of 02l to the north, almost in every discussion since yesterday...
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Warning! Warning! Warning! Blobcon 1! Blobcon 1! Blobcon 1! Danger ! Danger ! Danger!

LOL! :D
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1592
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH
E. TD
D
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2525
Warning! Warning! Warning! Blobcon 1! Blobcon 1! Blobcon 1! Danger ! Danger ! Danger!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5135
Niņo regions bordering La Nina.
Niņo 1 2
-1.34
Niņo 3
-.89
Niņo 3 4
-.43
Niņo 4
-.19
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1109

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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