PBS Special

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:24 AM GMT on November 21, 2005

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The PBS documentary program Frontline will be airing an episode about Hurricane Katrina on Tuesday, November 22, 2005, at 9 pm. From the PBS press release on this episode:


In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, FRONTLINE investigates the chain of decisions that slowed federal response to the devastation in New Orleans. The film exposes how and why federal and local officials failed to protect thousands of Americans from a broadly predicted natural disaster and examines the state of America's disaster-response system, restructured in the wake of 9/11, on The Storm, airing Tuesday, November 22, 2005, at 9 P.M. EST on PBS (check local listings).

FRONTLINE correspondent Martin Smith (Private Warriors) interviews a comprehensive lineup of key participants from New Orleans to Washington, including former Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Michael Brown in his first televised interview since he resigned. Other interviewees include Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and former Deputy Secretary James Loy.


Also at 8 pm EST the same night, PBS is airing a NOVA episode on the science of Hurricane Katrina. The show is called Katrina: Storm That Drowned a City. From the press release:


In less than 12 hours on August 29, Hurricane Katrina transformed a city into an uninhabitable swamp. NOVA investigates a shaken New Orleans in the storm's aftermath, providing a penetrating analysis of what science got right, what went wrong, and what can be done in the future, punctuated with moving eyewitness testimony and exclusive expert interviews.


Both Frontline and NOVA have a history of producing excellent shows, and both of these programs should be far more worthy of watching than last Sunday's awful "Category 7: End of the World"! I can't really believe this, but my co-worker's daughter is going to watch this movie in her middle school science class. The educational value of this movie was less than zero. It falls in the realm of bad science fiction, like the 2004 disaster epic, The Day After Tomorrow. FYI, the basic premise of Category 7: End of the World--that two huge storms can collide and combine, producing one awesome monster storm--is wrong. When two storms of approximately equal strength approach each other, they tend to rotate around a common center, then go their separate ways, in a process called the Fujiwara Effect. In rare cases they may merge into one storm, but the resulting storm will not be stronger than either of the original two storms, since wind shear from each storm will affect the other. More commonly, when two storms interact, one will destroy the other with its wind shear. This is what Hurricane Wilma did to Tropical Storm Alpha this year.

Jeff Masters

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491. Skyepony (Mod)
11:47 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Dr Masters has a new blog
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37803
490. mouseybabe
10:26 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
torn... is this normal for this time of year or is it out of the ordinary?
489. tornadoty
10:23 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
I have added 8 more tornadoes to my blog on last Tuesday's tornado outbreak.
488. mouseybabe
10:03 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
i think i've said this before to other people here, so forgive if you've heard it... but whenever someone tells me weather goes in cycles, i tell them i think it goes in spirals... yes, it goes round in circles, but we've jacked it up a level with global warming, 90% of which i blame directly on dcw ;)
487. dcw
9:46 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
That the planet is warming is really not something that is under dispute. The question is whether or not (or how much) we have an effect on it.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
486. Trouper415
9:33 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Thanks a bundle subtropic. Happy thanksgiving to you and all who have helped on the wunder hurricane blogs this season. There should be lots of thanksing done this year especially.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
485. subtropic
9:30 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Happy Thanksgiving trouper!
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
484. Trouper415
9:26 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
cpeterka- You could easily label all of this weather mess to global warming. However, with the new technologies that we have to measure weather, you have to wonder whether it is us warming the earth or it is mother nature warming the earth and we are just now able to measure the warming. "Global Warming" could have been 'happening' 200 years ago, however we of course wouldnt have been able to measure a temperature rise of 1 or 2 degrees....
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
483. rwdobson
8:47 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Too bad delta is too far out to sea to make the floridians nervous...lol.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
482. EllistonVA
8:43 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Happy Thanksgiving to all - except to Delta!
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
481. cpeterka
8:32 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
DELTA... DELTA...
Who says there is such a thing as Global Warming?
Member Since: September 18, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
480. swissguy
8:25 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
000
WTNT43 KNHC 232019
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED NOV 23 2005

THE 2005 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON REFUSES TO END AS MODERATE
TO DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND HAS
WRAPPED ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER
OF THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS
OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE
INTENSIFYING CIRCULATION HAS WRAPPED IN DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A 0852Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS SHOWING A FEW 50-KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS TO THE
NORTH... AND A 986.5 MB PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 62556 LOCATED
ABOUT 50 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 23/16Z. THAT BUOY PRESSURE ALSO
MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE 23/02Z PRESSURE OF 984.4 MB FROM BUOY
13534 WHEN IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
50-KT INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
TROPICAL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 165/08 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DELTA BOTTOMING OUT IN
LATITUDE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH. THE
MAN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS WHETHER DELTA TURNS EAST OR
WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE BEFORE IT TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH. I HAVE
OPTED TO TURN THE TRACK COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO THE EAST AND THEN
NORTH... GIVEN THAT DELTA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AND
VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONIC GYRE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN
SPEED TO... BUT IS RIGHT OF... THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 850-200 MB VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS DELTA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE
FROM THE CURRENT 50 KT DOWN TO 22 KT IN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT DELTA IS SHALLOWER THAN CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONES... LESS
SHEAR IS SUGGESTED BY UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AT 300
MB...WHICH IS ABOUT 10-20 KT LESS THAN AT 200 MB. ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SO SOME
ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS DELTA MOVES
SOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS OF 25.5C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

479. swissguy
8:24 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
we've got delta!!!!!!!!!
478. dcw
8:24 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Everyone should head over to mousey's blog with any questions, great folks there: Link
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
477. Skyepony (Mod)
8:22 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
gobble, gobble people~ the little one's up, sorry don't have more time mousey. Maybe later..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37803
476. swissguy
8:22 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
the "flags" are arrows mousey and indicate how strong it blows
475. dcw
8:20 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Winds are generally given in the direction they come from.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
474. subtropic
8:15 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Happy Thanksgiving Skye, Tony, Mousey, weatherdude, david and everyone (sorry, wish I had time to type everyone's names, but then... you all know your names) !!!
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
473. OGal
8:11 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
I too, would like to wish eveyone a Happy Turkey Day. Save up for the strength you will need on Friday to be out on the roads. We always get out tree on Friday after Thanksgiving so we will get out early. If anyone has a NO FAIL gravey recipe would you please post it. Thanks a bunch!!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
472. mouseybabe
8:08 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
same to you chaser :)
471. hurricanechaser
8:04 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Hello everyone..Just wanted to stop in and wish each of you a safe and very "Happy Thanksgiving".

If any of you get bored..LOL..I updated my blog around 1:45 pm today. I didn't spend much time discussing its future track because its only a matter of when and not if it gets picked up and carried to the NE by a trough in my humble opinion.

It certainly appears it will skip the Depression stage and become either Subtropical or Tropical storm Delta (I lean toward purely Tropical) with increased convection wrapping around its circulation center and Dvorak intensity estimates earlier today of 40 mph. I have described the Dvorak intensity scale very briefly on my blog as well.

Once again, I hope you all have a wonderful, "Thanksgiving".:)
470. mouseybabe
7:57 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
i like the floaters because you can add fronts and whatnot... but the wind markers always confuse me.. they look like flags on a golf course, but the wind is blowing the opposite to that image... from 'flag' to base...
469. mouseybabe
7:54 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
thanks, skye... but i'm still confused ... how do they move them?
468. Skyepony (Mod)
7:51 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
The 2 floaters are satalite loops, except they aren't for a paticular area. NOOA moves them around to invest areas, storms, hurricanes & areas to watch. Usually a tight shot of something interesting.

You can choose the latest still picture or loop for each storm as well as watervapor, infra-red, etc.

You can find them here. as well as other satalites for certain areas & useful links.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37803
466. mouseybabe
7:31 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
can someone please explain to me what the floaters are on the nhc site?
465. Skyepony (Mod)
7:21 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Hay~ ALL~ i moved enough of it today. I'm pretty disappointed this hasn't been named yet. Happy they finally put the gfdl on it. Notice it is inisulized at 986mb & 59.6kts. Guess they're hoping it will do what that model says, so they don't have to name the subtropical fish storm ~ about to be hit by troff, shreaded & pulled north, does show strengthing too far n to be named. ~ The cmc shows some weakining & then meandering to the ne. ~the gfs has it well weakened by 60 hrs, doing a dance around another storm at 90hrs while strengthing to fushia color, much further n around 144hrs. The nogaps has the short term forcasted weakening, with restregnthing to the w, moving w toward the seUS, but a front is coming off the seUS to hit it again. Ukmet has it weakened in 60 hrs, then tore into 2 storms, like an upside down smilely face, stretched across the atlanic. I'll say it will be well weakened to TD strenth or less in 60 hrs, after that, don't know.

A storm is moving in from Canada, heads up great lakes, neUS gets hit again in less than 48hrs. In 4 days there is a good chance for strong storm to move through the mid-west.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37803
464. mouseybabe
7:20 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
dude... dude! happy t-giving!!
463. mouseybabe
7:19 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
billsfan.... make sure you set it at the top of the blog for newest first, or you'll have to go through the pages each time...
462. mouseybabe
7:18 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
sorry, been away having my home releveled.. i feel really in balance with the cosmic harmonies... lol

doc, your menu sounds great, one of the guys who worked on my home asked me if i sell them... i'd have given him one, but he wouldn't take it...

pecan, pumpkin and apple this time... i like xmas best, because then it's all the old hungarian pastry recipes passed down for generations... mmmmm...

maybe if you go north, you'll head for lobcarl's island and eat lobster for t-giving... any place other than here sounds good, but i am stuck for the present... so i will enjoy what fl has to offer in the winter :)

mousey
461. hurigo
7:09 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Bills: Scroll down to the end of the postings. See in bold print before the Post your comment section: "Viewing COmments x - x(number): Make sure "showing 50 comments in highlighted in blue and click.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
460. billsfaninsofla
6:56 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
* pick up
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5520
459. billsfaninsofla
6:55 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Hurigo- thank you....is there a setting or something to view 50 comments only?

DCW... LOL on your graphic

Doc... you've had me thinking about seafood all afternoon, I may have to run by and picking some fish or shrimp for dinner tonight.
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5520
458. weatherdude65
6:28 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
hello all...

457. dcw
6:27 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
It's not a TD, winds are upwards of 50kt.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
456. dcw
6:26 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Only one system, and see my advisory above or at http://theahc.webhop.net
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
455. DocNDswamp
6:26 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Hello Pensacola21,...Yeah, billsfan...all you guys come on over, tell mousey to bring those pies. LOL...I got a laugh the other nite when LobCarl invited everyone up for lobster...Bet he didn't expect the response he got!

Problem I'm having is loooonnnnngggg reload time on d-up. Time for Shaun to place a new entry.

DCW, ...good post, agreed...that's probably been at least STD 28 for over 24 hrs.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4792
454. hurigo
6:22 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Thanks, DCW. I see the NHC "discussion" now. ARe there two systems out there? what is your take/prediction?
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
453. dcw
6:19 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Us ----> <---- NHC
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
452. Jedkins
6:17 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
It is NOT a hurricane yet and is NOT a true tropical system yet,it still has dryer weaker convection as of cold core systems do,but as it moves over warmer waters it should begin to suck up warmer water and more and more water vapor which will cause it to transition into a tropical system,the immense energy from warmer water,combined with lots of water vapor should allow intense moist tropical convection to develop around the center and begin to strengthen it.
451. dcw
6:16 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
There is no 2pm, and the 1pm is out.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
450. dcw
6:16 PM GMT on November 23, 2005

Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
449. hurigo
6:13 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
I agree Jed. Wonder what we'll hear at the 2pm EST outlook
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
448. Jedkins
6:13 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
I
447. Jedkins
6:11 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
It is not a hurricane yet,it is not gererating deep tropical convection and it still is somewhat none tropical,but it is continuing to push towards warmer waters,and convection is slowly becoming deeper heavier and stronger more like a tropical system.But because it continues to push south it should become tropical.
446. Pensacola21
6:08 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
I leave around 4:30 central... I wish I could leave early.. I have to bake like a madwoman tonight...

Anyway, I gotta go get some lunch..

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE! :-)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
445. hurigo
6:08 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
But do check out that graffic as it is interesting.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
444. skubaaruba
6:06 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
The NHC is droping the ball on a at least a tropical storm or even at one time a hurricane at about 28 North and 40 West.
Member Since: November 13, 2003 Posts: 3 Comments: 34
443. Pensacola21
6:06 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Here at work too... Wish I was about to leave, lol!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
442. hurigo
6:05 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
Bills, I think it is because of that large graphic posting. But do make sure you are on "showing 50 comments." Once we get up to 50 w/out a large graphic the scrolling problem will cease (I think).
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6729
441. billsfaninsofla
6:02 PM GMT on November 23, 2005
must be something with this computer
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5520

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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