TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MechEngMet:


...and a consensus of 5 yr olds believe (have faith) in the tooth fairy. They even have evidence! The teeth are in fact replaced by quarters.



You were ripped off - I got dollars.

I'm skeptical that you have a factually-based (i.e. - non-faith) position on AGW. Have you any evidence to refute the scientific consensus? If not, then what is your motivation? Before you answer - remember that posting things here just to stir up disagreement is considered trolling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
646. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:


I'm pretty sure "belief" in global warming is the same as believing in the germ theory of disease, or gravity, or thermodynamics. You don't need to bring "faith" to a science fight-- when I calculate G = H - TS as part of my work as a scientist, do I first pray to Gibbs, or make a burnt offering to Enthalpy?


If the science is settled with agw.... why do we keep using tax dollars to fund more studies??????
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-Poof execution confirmation received-
2013 blog roll cull recommencing now-
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
Quoting Tribucanes:



We don't have time, the time to act is now. If taking drastic actions that seem unimaginable for the average person to accept equals panic then it's time to panic. Because, lets face it, the steps to really address this, would not be acceptable or voted for by the average citizen. The steps to stem what's coming would be dramatic, life changing, and unimaginable for most. We as a people, country, world are not ready for the sacrifices that would have to be made to change what is happening. We'll do what we've done well through our existence; we'll adapt. This adaptation will come at a very very high price. This is a hard truth. It's very human nature to think that we've got the time. It's very convenient for not having to change what we're doing now.


Panic (fear) induces the "flight or fight" response in people. Nothing will be accomplished if there is panic. Once you start talking like you are, people will just shut down. If you really want things done, small, babysteps have to be taken. People are resistant to change - and we cannot change things so quicky (see my previous post regarding economics).

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Quoting daddyjames:


Faith is not belief, and belief is not faith. One is a subcomponent of the other.

Faith is the belief in something without factual evidence to support that belief.

Therefore, believing in GW (A or otherwise) is not faith since it is supported by factual evidence.


Faith: not wanting to know what is true.
Friedrich Nietzsche
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Quoting Birthmark:

Ah, I see. You have confused acceptance of the scientific evidence with "faith." It's a rather common, but weird mistake that certain types of people seem prone to commit.


Exactly what 'certain types of people' are you referencing? Be specific.
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Quoting MechEngMet:


You 'believe' in global warming, AGW? ...and hence have faith.

So, answer the question.


I'm pretty sure "belief" in global warming is the same as believing in the germ theory of disease, or gravity, or thermodynamics. You don't need to bring "faith" to a science fight-- when I calculate G = H - TS as part of my work as a scientist, do I first pray to Gibbs, or make a burnt offering to Enthalpy?
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
Quoting daddyjames:


Faith is not belief, and belief is not faith. One is a subcomponent of the other.

Faith is the belief in something without factual evidence to support that belief.

Therefore, believing in GW (A or otherwise) is not faith since it is supported by factual evidence.


...and a consensus of 5 yr olds believe (have faith) in the tooth fairy. They even have evidence! The teeth are in fact replaced by quarters.

Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Quoting MechEngMet:


You 'believe' in global warming, AGW? ...and hence have faith.

So, answer the question.


Looking at a huge amount of collected, peer-reviewed, well handled evidence and drawing conclusions from what is known is really, really not "faith."

I have no particular problem with faith, by the way, with believing something that given no real observable and direct evidence either way. But using the word "believe" like most of us do does not, in fact, imply that it's the same thing, and science is really not about belief the way you're choosing to interpret it.
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Quoting daddyjames:


Panic is not a viable option, planning - and getting something accomplished - would be. We still have time.



We don't have time, the time to act is now. If taking drastic actions that seem unimaginable for the average person to accept equals panic then it's time to panic. Because, lets face it, the steps to really address this, would not be acceptable or voted for by the average citizen. The steps to stem what's coming would be dramatic, life changing, and unimaginable for most. We as a people, country, world are not ready for the sacrifices that would have to be made to change what is happening. We'll do what we've done well through our existence; we'll adapt. This adaptation will come at a very very high price. This is a hard truth. It's very human nature to think that we've got the time. It's very convenient for not having to change what we're doing now.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting help4u:
Coldest start to artic summer on record.US fire season continues to be quietest on record contray to what some with agendas are telling you.Antarctica apparently ignored by warmingistas,and for good reason.


Here's recent news from Antarctica: Link

It doesn't look ignored to me.
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Quoting MechEngMet:


You 'believe' in global warming, AGW? ...and hence have faith.

So, answer the question.


Faith is not belief, and belief is not faith. One is a subcomponent of the other.

Faith is the belief in something without factual evidence to support that belief.

Therefore, believing in GW (A or otherwise) is not faith since it is supported by factual evidence.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Quoting MechEngMet:


You 'believe' in global warming, AGW? ...and hence have faith.

So, answer the question.

Ah, I see. You have confused acceptance of the scientific evidence with "faith." It's a rather common, but weird mistake that certain types of people seem prone to commit.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting Birthmark:

I don't have a faith. Most atheists don't. lol


You 'believe' in global warming, AGW? ...and hence have faith.

So, answer the question.
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Quoting CJ5:


That is funny.


Yeah, malevolent anti-intellectualism is a riot...

o_O
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What if a storm formed in the Atlantic and it never dissapated?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1606
Quoting Tribucanes:
It's not just Fox. We were voted like 32nd out of 100 by Reporters Without Borders for freedom of media. All major outlets are owned by four major corporations; so it's no surprise at all. If your not getting your info from many many sources you won't get the truth. While I would put Fox at the top of the misinformation machine for programming(I mean programming for its duel purpose in meaning), they are by no means alone.
Fox News is intensely hyped, even compared to the news stations that deliver news intensely hyped...I have seen them all broadcast info that was not true or blown completely out of proportion, and it happens more now then it did decades ago.
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Quoting MechEngMet:


IF it doesn't, will you begin to re-consider your faith?

I don't have a faith. Most atheists don't. lol
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Torrential rain and gusty winds, little lightning.

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Quoting Birthmark:

It's quite possible that a fair amount of doom could happen very, very soon --within a few years.


IF it doesn't, will you begin to re-consider your faith?
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
It's not just Fox. We were voted like 32nd out of 100 by Reporters Without Borders for freedom of media. All major outlets are owned by four major corporations; so it's no surprise at all. If your not getting your info from many many sources you won't get the truth. While I would put Fox at the top of the misinformation machine for programming(I mean programming for its duel purpose in meaning), they are by no means alone.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Finally i get this up
02L
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1606
Quoting CJ5:


That is funny.


Ah, ignorance must be fun . . .
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I agree with all of this. I just don't think we have the time anymore. That's somewhat debatable, I realize, but the more I look at the breadth of data, the more it seems to me that this is going very much faster than was modeled and predicted. I think the IPCC is totally obsolete already, and we're starting to see major agricultural disruptions from the shifts in the jet stream and so on _now_.

I suspect the effects will speed up every year from here, and that until the ice cap is really dead, it will be more catastrophically chaotic than it is a steady shift toward hotter. We didn't really account for chaotic weather while the thing seeks a new equilibrium to dance around, that's already happening now.

I hope that I'm wrong. But I just don't think we really have the time to ease in anymore. I think we would have had to start that process 20 years ago. And at some point, the disruptions from climate change will overshadow the disruptions we'd face from quicker adaptation.


Panic is not a viable option, planning - and getting something accomplished - would be. We still have time.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Quoting Xandra:

Cliff Harris, creator of the graph you posted, is not a scientist.


Environmental Science "Systems and Solutions" co author Robert M. Schoch is a published parapsychologist and proponent of the plasma and solar outburst theory of the end of the last ice age.
I don't think I'd trust anything this guy writes.
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hey dudes, here is something you'll like
Link
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1606
Quoting ILwthrfan:

Here ya go buddy, this is just a floater over the top of 02L currently.

LINK+


Thx
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1606
619. CJ5
Quoting MrMixon:


Here's a link to a summary of the study he was probably referring to, though I think there have been others as well.

LINK

The conclusion:
Sunday morning news shows do the most to help people learn about current events, while some outlets, especially Fox News, lead people to be even less informed than those who say they don’t watch any news at all.


That is funny.
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Quoting 62901IL:
Can anyone tell me where i can find satellite animation of the BOC?

Here ya go buddy, this is just a floater over the top of 02L currently.

LINK

The closest you can get on a constant basis is the Gulf of Mexico loops, outside of any floaters that are present in the area this would be the place to go for that.

LINK

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Can anyone tell me where i can find satellite animation of the BOC?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1606
Quoting DrMickey:

Put some sunglasses on that graphic and it looks like Floodman's avatar...


lol

speaking of flood haven't seen him in ages
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

For the time being, at least. Let's see what happens over the next few hours as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche.

Marco was very close to the coastline as well and managed 55 knots:

Marco was also the smallest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin, and very small storms can spin up very quickly compared to the larger systems. I still believe that this system has a shot at becoming a least a minimal tropical storm before moving ashore again.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


last year


now



Last year Antarctica had much above average sea ice.
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Quoting SLU:




The positive IOD occurs when warm water exists in the western Indian Ocean near the horn of Africa with cooler waters relative to normal forming in the east Indian Ocean near Sumatra. This generally tends to reduce the levels of activity in the MDR by weakening the west African monsoon circulation. e.g 2011

The negative IOD occurs when cool water exists in the western Indian Ocean near the horn of Africa with warmer waters relative to normal forming in the east Indian Ocean near Sumatra. This generally tends to enhance the levels of activity in the MDR by strengthening the west African monsoon circulation. e.g 2010.

In the graph on figure 16, the years with the positive IOD are indeed on the negative side of the y-axis and the strongly positive years since 1979 were 1982, 1983, 1994, 1997, 1999, 2006, 2007 and 2011 and they all feature relatively slow MDR activity.

What JB said yesterday contradicts the assessment prepared by Landsea et al 2011 which is why his forecast of 17-5-1 will bust. Currently, the IOD is -0.4 caused by the significant cooling in the west Indian Ocean of late with warm water near Sumatra. This pattern will favour enhanced MDR activity and a more active Atlantic hurricane season.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


Follow up question: So Figure 11 in the 2011 Hurricane season shows the exact opposite pattern in that the western Indian Ocean region is cooler than the Eastern Indian Ocean region?

Is this not what the current SST anomaly is showing? A cooling of the western region compared with the region around Sumatra?



Edit: I think that it is painfully obvious that I am still confused - so maybe i should hit the books, do some calculations and enlighten myself.
Thanks for trying though.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732


new region four areas of interest
poss multi flare event
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Circulation is moving over Ciudad del Carmen right now. Should be over water shortly.

It has a chance. The Key will be building convection over the center.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


last year


now


Put some sunglasses on that graphic and it looks like Floodman's avatar...
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Quoting allancalderini:
I believe this is your first season btw you are talking?Anyways hope that this season is like 2010 that was a beautiful one where all the majors stay out to sea with the excption of Karl and Igor.

yeah it is...on here anyway.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1606
strong tstorm to my north has a nice shelf cloud.

About to break 10" on the month
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Wow... never saw storms this strong before global warming started...


Oh GOD!
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1606
Quoting 62901IL:

It better, or I'll stop tracking the tropics.
I believe this is your first season btw you are talking?Anyways hope that this season is like 2010 that was a beautiful one where all the majors stay out to sea with the excption of Karl and Igor.
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Wow... never saw storms this strong before global warming started...

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
Circulation is moving over Ciudad del Carmen right now. Should be over water shortly.

After confirmation from a meteorologist, I can say with a good amount of certainty that it has indeed tightened up lately. I am not going insane.

Probably a bad idea for the National Hurricane Center to discontinue advisories.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi nigel. We are waiting for a Tropical Wave to arrive on Wednesday bringing scattered showers and some gusty winds. The recent dust has put a dent to the rainfall in the past 4 days.

We should also get some wet weather this Friday from the said tropical wave.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8029
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


last year


now


OMG!
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1606
Quoting help4u:
Coldest start to artic summer on record.US fire season continues to be quietest on record contray to what some with agendas are telling you.Antarctica apparently ignored by warmingistas,and for good reason.


last year


now

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Quoting daddyjames:


i don't know, you have a wager riding on the outcome, sounds like wishcasting to me ;)
Quoting daddyjames:


i don't know, you have a wager riding on the outcome, sounds like wishcasting to me ;)
:o me?never lol XD just sometimes but come on everyone have at least wishcast sometime in their life.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.