TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

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Quoting mikatnight:


He did jump-start the conversation. Hadn't heard about the God thing tho. He taking credit for that too?


Careful, we all know where talk like that goes if a US reporter reads you here!

"Sources: Al Gore claims to have invented God, wears yellow necktie"
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
Quoting JasonWins33:
img src="">
Big storm yesterday another today!!
He returns....
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Wow! This tornado/land spout was probably over DIA for most of its life.
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Looks like TD 2 will be coming out on open waters soon. Already building it thunderstorms again. only slightly though.
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Quoting whipster:


Gore has no scientific degrees, no scientific training, nothing. Why he is looked at like a god is beyond comprehension.


Again, just because you don't like the messenger, don't dismiss the message.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
SevereStudios‏@severestudios37 s
Freaky picture of funnel cloud over a @FlyFrontier airplane at @DENAirport from @9NEWS coverage Link
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Quoting Patrap:
June 17, 2013: Tropical Depression TWO bears down on the Yucatan Peninsula

Larger Image

The close up looks like an angry mass of white olives.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21861
Quoting Birthmark:

Oh, man! I missed the election for Grand Inquisitor of Jeff Masters' Blog!

And you won, did you? lol

Or do you merely have faith that you won? ;)



unfair. I believe (have faith) that MechEngMet is playing devil's advocate - to some degree.

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting daddyjames:


Oh, the dramA. Oh, the humanity ;)
To much drama, not enough humanity..jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21861
Quoting whipster:


Gore has no scientific degrees, no scientific training, nothing. Why he is looked at like a god is beyond comprehension.


He did jump-start the conversation. Hadn't heard about the God thing tho. He taking credit for that too?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:


If the science is settled with agw.... why do we keep using tax dollars to fund more studies??????

Because "settled" doesn't mean "know everything there is to know." That being said, it's highly unlikely that we'll learn anything that will overturn GHGs' responsibility for the current warming.

But there is still *lots* left to find out about how the warming will play out.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Was that two bears down or two beers down on the Yucatan Peninsula? .... or two bears down after drinking two beers?
Four beers drinking two bears after my 6 beers.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21861
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Below are 15 of the key points made by Mr. Gore:
1.) For 400,000 years, when CO2 is high, temperatures are high and vice versa.
2.) Temperatures and CO2 remained flat for 1,000 years and then temperatures shot up after CO2 levels rose.
3.) Glacial caving proves the Earth is rapidly warming.
4.) Human activities are causing unprecedented melting.
5.) The recent rate of temperature rise is unprecedented.
6.) Sea levels may rise 20 feet in the 21st century.
7.) Storms are becoming more frequent and severe.
8.) Higher temperatures are killing people.
9.) Warmer weather is causing more Malaria.
10.) As Earth warms it will become drier and windier.
11.) The USA is the largest emitter of CO2.
12.) Scientists concur, the science is settled.
13.) More CO2 will cause the oceans to become more acidic.
14.) More CO2 will cause the Earth to reach a tipping point which will trigger a catastrophic warming.
15.) Additional warming will cause polar bears to become extinct.



Gore has no scientific degrees, no scientific training, nothing. Why he is looked at like a god is beyond comprehension.
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Quoting daddyjames:


Oh, the dramA. Oh, the humanity ;)


Was that two bears down or two beers down on the Yucatan Peninsula? .... or two bears down after drinking two beers?
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Quoting schistkicker:


I'm pretty sure "belief" in global warming is the same as believing in the germ theory of disease, or gravity, or thermodynamics. You don't need to bring "faith" to a science fight-- when I calculate G = H - TS as part of my work as a scientist, do I first pray to Gibbs, or make a burnt offering to Enthalpy?

By quoting schistkicker I do not wish to imply that schistkicker is unaware of nuances of the scientific method or has confusion as to definition of belief, hypothesis and theory as the American public seems to be.
A belief is a strongly held opinion which may or may not be based in fact.
Children who are not taught the scientific method grow up to be adults who confuse the words belief (a strongly held opinion), a guess (a random thought or idea), a hypothesis (a possible explanation of observed data), a theory (knowledge based in many tests with repeatable results).
Hence confusion of the "Theory of Natural Selection. (Evolution)" being "only" a theory.
Science welcomes open debate and refutation. Newtons "Law of Gravity" was incomplete. As our understanding grows theories are subject to change.
This does not mean that a "consensus of scientists" has no meaning.
There is a good deal of confusion in the public regarding how scientists use the words "hypothesis", "theory", and "fact".
Facts are based upon repeatable measurement of observable phenomena.
Religion is an organized system of beliefs typically founded upon a supernatural ancient mythology.
Supernatural means "beyond nature", and is something which by definition cannot be measured.
The supernatural provides no means for predicted outcomes.

Science is a body knowledge based upon factual evidence which allows not only explanation of observed results but most importantly the prediction of future events.
It is the consensus of scientists that climate change is due to anthropogenic causes.
The changes in Arctic sea ice have changed the thermodynamics of the Earths atmosphere.
We cannot tip-toe around the issue of AGW.
If the scientific consensus turns out to be wrong the worst that can happen is that we will invest in science, sustainable energy and robust infrastructure improvements and education.
The worst that can happen is extinction.
So get off the fence, look at what is happening, not on a chart but at pictures of the Arctic, the melting glaciers and 90 degree temperatures in June, in ALASKA and observe the weather events in the Northern Hemisphere attributed to changes in the Jet Stream due to Arctic sea ice melt.
You are a vocal part of the solution or you are a silent partner in the problem.
Edit: Sorry Needed to clarify some points.




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Quoting daddyjames:


For you in Naples - yes (my entire immediate family lives 75 miles to your immediate east, where I grew up).

There is going to be change and impacts. But it can be mitigated, if the proper steps are taken. Imposing change on people rarely works as well as getting people to accept change. And that acceptance takes time, unfortunately.
Again, you're understating the situation. This isn't a matter of "getting people to accept change"; this is a matter of telling them that that tsunami is just a half-mile offshore, so they better run NOW.

Anyway, another snapshot of the very dry tornado near DIA:

tornado
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Quoting help4u:
Coldest start to artic summer on record.US fire season continues to be quietest on record contray to what some with agendas are telling you.Antarctica apparently ignored by warmingistas,and for good reason.


Right. Temperature reached the 90's in Alaska yesterday, in multiple places. Colorado's largest, most expensive wildfires are still not quite contained.

Darn that factual agenda thingy.

Bought beef recently? Expensive? That's what happens when drought makes it too expensive to keep feeding beef. Ask Texans how they feel about the drought.

As I've said here before, if we address climate change and the science turns out to be wrong, the worst that happens is your children didn't get to drive Camaros. And there is still plenty of oil, which will be pretty cheap to use.

If we don't address client change and it turns out the AGW crowd was right, your kids, and their kids, don't have food. Or water.

It's your family. You decide.
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Quoting MechEngMet:


Exactly what 'certain types of people' are you referencing? Be specific.

Oh, man! I missed the election for Grand Inquisitor of Jeff Masters' Blog!

And you won, did you? lol

Or do you merely have faith that you won? ;)
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Where we stand so far pre hurricanes
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9738
just like that

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That's Bret.
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Quoting MechEngMet:


Theory is indeed open to discussion. It must be. IF it survives dissension it becomes a stronger theory.


No, it's not. Repeating wrong things doesn't suddenly make them right.

A scientific theory summarizes a hypothesis or group of hypotheses that have been supported with repeated testing. If enough evidence accumulates to support a hypothesis, it moves to the next step—known as a theory—in the scientific method and becomes accepted as a valid explanation of a phenomenon.
(Source: Live Science)
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Quoting nigel20:

It seems as if the they (NHC) think that TD 2 could still become Barry.


It seems so.
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Below are 15 of the key points made by Mr. Gore:
1.) For 400,000 years, when CO2 is high, temperatures are high and vice versa.
2.) Temperatures and CO2 remained flat for 1,000 years and then temperatures shot up after CO2 levels rose.
3.) Glacial caving proves the Earth is rapidly warming.
4.) Human activities are causing unprecedented melting.
5.) The recent rate of temperature rise is unprecedented.
6.) Sea levels may rise 20 feet in the 21st century.
7.) Storms are becoming more frequent and severe.
8.) Higher temperatures are killing people.
9.) Warmer weather is causing more Malaria.
10.) As Earth warms it will become drier and windier.
11.) The USA is the largest emitter of CO2.
12.) Scientists concur, the science is settled.
13.) More CO2 will cause the oceans to become more acidic.
14.) More CO2 will cause the Earth to reach a tipping point which will trigger a catastrophic warming.
15.) Additional warming will cause polar bears to become extinct.

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Quoting Patrap:
June 17, 2013: Tropical Depression TWO bears down on the Yucatan Peninsula

Larger Image



Oh, the dramA. Oh, the humanity ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting nigel20:

It seems as if the they (NHC) think that TD 2 could still become Barry.
That's what Bret of 2005 kind of did.Developed so fast and made landfall around the same place where the possible future Barry might be making landfall at.
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Good afternoon everyone. I woke up this morning to some strong thunderstorms just North of Austin and recorded about an inch of rain in about an hour. Any week that I don't have to water the garden or the lawn and get a free car wash courtesy of mother nature is a good week indeed.
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June 17, 2013: Tropical Depression TWO bears down on the Yucatan Peninsula

Larger Image

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
NWS Boulder ‏@NWSBoulder 12m
Gust 84 kts recorded by #DIA ASOS as tornado moved over the equipment. We don't know what peak was as equipment went out!
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Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click Image for Loop

ZOOM is active



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting HurricaneAndre:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 182037
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.


THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR
SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



You forgot to emphasize the "assuming" part.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9738
(click to enlarge)
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heavy rain for the northeast again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Remains as TD2

TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR
SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

It seems as if the they (NHC) think that TD 2 could still become Barry.
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707. vis0
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I think this is pretty awesome, hopefully you guys can see it because the resolution sucks :(

FULL CREDIT TO
-
GTcooliebai, for posting & Climatologist Cliff "notez" Harris & Randy "My" Mann. (2009)

Nicknames "vis0" added,  graphics posted w/o any background check or money order.

This comment in no way represents Wxu in this uni-verse or its anti-verse.


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Quoting schistkicker:


A scientific LAW doesn't hold special rank over a scientific theory. Because it's a "theory" doesn't mean an idea is still subject to serious debate - in fact, theories are typically more useful since they also include mechanisms or explanations, not simple casual relationships that are often distillable to mathematical equations.

Gravity is not a law, it's a theory.
Evolution is not a law, it's a theory.

Are either of those up for scientific debate?

This is an odd line of doubt, especially if you are an engineer; you should have had enough physical science during your education to disabuse you of these misconceptions about what a scientific law and scientific theory are and what they do.


Theory is indeed open to discussion. It must be. IF it survives dissension it becomes a stronger theory.
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02L RGB Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
They're still issuing advisories. Link
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Quoting MechEngMet:


Did you even read the original question? What if something occurred (or in this reference NOT occur) to shake your belief in something?

There are LAWS of thermodynamics of which you reference (yes I use those laws too). But it is not yet called Global warming LAW, it is still theory.

All I asked was if something doesn't happen soon (as he claimed it would) will he alter his beliefs? That's a reasonable question is it not?


Link


A law tells us what will happen, a theory is an explanation of why the law works the way it does. Here's an example: using the law of gravity, we can calculate what will happen when we drop a bowling ball on our big toe. But the reasons why the law works the way it does are still being studied using gravitational theories.

Thus, a theory is not a guess or a belief, it is a real-world model for what may happen based on scientific law. Scientists use the theories to study real world observations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Pink and Black
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Remains as TD2


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME
. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR
SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





nop is still NHC issuing advisories
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 182037
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.


THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR
SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Denver tornado on radar. Get a nice look at it. Very close to radar site.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 182037
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR
SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
I understand what you're saying, but we're beyond that. There's a tsunami approaching and it's just a mile or two offshore. Now isn't the time to gingerly step down the beach, gently awakening people and whispering quietly in their ear that they might consider action. No. You sound the sirens, you blast the air horns, your ring the bells...in short, you do whatever you have to to get people moving immediately. If a few decades of panic-prventing babysteps have told us anything, it's that.

And, yes, the situation really is that dire...


For you in Naples - yes (my entire immediate family lives 75 miles to your immediate east, where I grew up).

There is going to be change and impacts. But it can be mitigated, if the proper steps are taken. Imposing change on people rarely works as well as getting people to accept change. And that acceptance takes time, unfortunately.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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