TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

Share this Blog
52
+

Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 897 - 847

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

02L RGB Loop

click Image for Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Sabancuy, Campeche radar

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zampaz:

"As students of physics will tell you, however, Isaac Newton%u2019s laws relate to motion and gravity. The laws of thermodynamics, relating to the transfer of heat, were initially developed by Lord Kelvin more than 100 years after Newton had snuffed it."




yes, muffed the reference for thermodynamics - one reason why I am not a physicist.;)

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
From the Miami NWS Disco...


.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO NEAR
THE 2" MARK BY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Birthmark:

Again, evidence?


Evidence is not required for the non-existence of something.

If you want evidence of existence of something, that's up to you to prove, particulary since the AGW camp are the ones so reliant on proxy data. You did not have thermometers, so rely on far from perfect methods of reconstructing data from before humans existed. Idiocy.


Quoting Birthmark:

You are using a one day anomaly map when your claim was, "The Arctic and much of Greenland is currently 5C to 10C below normal, and has been for several days."

I don't think that map supports your assertion.


30 day anomaly.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Probable tornado on the ground NE of Wake Forest, NC (NE of Raleigh)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Evening, Looks like TD2 is emerging off the coast of MX into the BOC. I emailed the Met Office in Grand Cayman about when the Cayman Islands Doppler Radar will be running and going online for the public, they emailed me back and said hopefully by this upcoming weekend , if it had been running this past weekend it might have answered the question as whether TD2 was a TD or minimal TS before it was called.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hericane96:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that TD2 could get to a 65 mp storm. I know I'm crazy right, but it's structure has improved and has about 2 days over water. It's Location is one of the best in the Atlantic and is know for quick spin ups.
I agree.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Weird storm. Very little radar-indicated rotation but a very clear debris ball with a very pronounced debris signature in CC. A destructive tornado is on the ground.


it does look to appear to have rotation.
Quoting barbamz:
German site to look at above/below temperature forecasts, using GFS. You can animate several forecasts which can be selected the panel in the right corner above. I see a lot of above normal temps in Canada and Russia the days ahead (but this time not Greenland).


850 hPa

Germany is competing with Alaska concerning the aberrations right now *sweat, sweat*. We're in for severe storms tomorrow and/or Thursday.

Good night to everybody!
Alaska Getting hot today.
Quoting JohnLonergan:

Big Bang Predicted this:
Weird.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night Barb!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that TD2 could get to a 65 mp storm. I know I'm crazy right, but it's structure has improved and has about 2 days over water. It's Location is one of the best in the Atlantic and is know for quick spin ups.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weird storm. Little radar-indicated rotation but a very clear debris ball with a very pronounced debris signature in CC. A destructive tornado is on the ground.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
German site to look at above/below temperature forecasts, using GFS. You can animate several forecasts which can be selected by the panel in the right corner above. I see a lot of above normal temps in Canada and Russia the days ahead (but this time not Greenland).


850 hPa

Germany is competing with Alaska concerning the aberrations right now *sweat, sweat*. We're in for severe storms tomorrow and/or Thursday.

Good night to everybody!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


They will keep looking for Jimmy for as long as new "evidence" is given as to his location. Leave no stone unturned. .... I quit looking a long time ago.


Monday night football.. Giants are playing someone in Giants Stadium, the runner sweeps around left end and makes a cut.. the edge of the carpet lifts and lets go, the runner goes down.. the INSTANT the carpet lifts Al Michael says, "hey look, there's Jimmy Hoffa." I nearly peed my britches laughing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Ha!

It was actually the mockery of affection. What I was doing back before getting all sickly and winding up largely wasting my time on the internets was basically botany, with a dash of insecty fun and a nice, crispy coating of conservation.

Micro... that's ugly.

Honestly, the reorganizations across all of taxonomy make everybody's head spin, at this point. It'll go on for a good while yet. At the end, we probably still won't have a consistent single definition of species.


Yes it will - almost on daily basis now, as more information piles in :D.

Challenging when something is reclassified . . .
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Arctic air temperatures have been nothing more nor nothing less than normal so far this month.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Birthmark:

Ouch! The wrong...it hurtses, it does.

Big Bang Predicted this:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting daddyjames:


I am one of those - and all of the above ;)

. . . but if you think botanists are bad, you should delve into the raging debate ongoing in microbiology.

Even now, there are several working proposals as to how many kingdoms there are, it isn't the traditional three we were taught.

It makes my head spin at times.


Ha!

It was actually the mockery of affection. What I was doing back before getting all sickly and winding up largely wasting my time on the internets was basically botany, with a dash of insecty fun and a nice, crispy coating of conservation.

Micro... that's ugly.

Honestly, the reorganizations across all of taxonomy make everybody's head spin, at this point. It'll go on for a good while yet. At the end, we probably still won't have a consistent single definition of species.
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
Alaskan Temperatures Soar to the 90s, Challenge Records
June 18, 2013; 4:03 PM


Some of the warmest weather of the year arrived in Alaska over the weekend and will continue through the first part of the week. The heat is also raising the risk of wildfires.
Folks heading to The Last Frontier should be prepared for hot weather and possibly smoky conditions.
Heat challenged records in Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska's two most populated cities, over the weekend. The high in Fairbanks on Sunday reached 88 degrees, falling just a degree shy of their daily record.
Talkeetna was the hot spot in Alaska on Monday, climbing to a scorching 96 degrees. The temperature shattered the highest reading ever recorded for the site. The old record of 91 degrees set on June 26, 1953, was equaled Sunday. The temperature hit 94 degrees at McGrath and 90 degrees at Cordova.






Temperatures are forecast to continue to challenge, and possibly break, records again on Tuesday across parts of interior Alaska.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s through Wednesday with the highest temperatures being focused in southwestern Alaska. Meanwhile, cold ocean waters will limit temperatures along the coast to the mid-50s.
In addition to the heat, the weather pattern is also raising the risk of wildfires across the state.
According to the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, there are currently 29 active wildfires across the state. With the weather pattern not forecast to move much over the next few days, the wildfire threat will remain elevated.
These record-challenging temperatures are due to a northward bulge in winds high in the atmosphere that developed over central Alaska over the past weekend. The strong upper-level winds are known as the jet stream.
This particular jet stream pattern will hold its ground through the first part of the week, allowing the above-normal temperatures to continue.
Temperatures will start to ease a bit during the second half of the week as the jet stream shifts southward.

This warm air will start to make up for the chilly spring that Alaska has had this year.
April was a particularly cold month, especially for the city of Fairbanks. In April, there was only one day where the city had temperatures that were above normal. When all was said and done, the month of April averaged 14 degrees below normal in Fairbanks.
Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Brian Lada.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
I go out to water the flower garden. All the rain today has dissipated around me. Thunder? I go back in and check the radar. Yep! I'm finally going to get the rain! Lights have been blinking all day, so hopefully when the storm hits I keep electric.

Modified: Now under a dangerous thunderstorm alert. I do love a good storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gearsts:
How can that happen over land? I remember Irene doing something similar over PR.
Irene became a hurricane over PR if I remember correctly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Uh-oh, you have used the words of summoning... the botanists might descend to have the great war of the splitters vs. lumpers... hybridized oaks will be thrown like matchsticks...

Fortunately, they'll probably only seriously consider posts written in latin...


I am one of those - and all of the above ;)

. . . but if you think botanists are bad, you should delve into the raging debate ongoing in microbiology.

Even now, there are several working proposals as to how many kingdoms there are, it isn't the traditional three we were taught.

It makes my head spin at times.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting daddyjames:


Ah, Newton's law works on one scale - at least I'm not floating away ;)


Well, I am. But my best hypothesis is that this might be because a friend (who doesn't drink) dropped of a bunch of Bud Light "Lime-A-Ritas" that his housemate didn't like, and I'm less picky, so...
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
Quoting RTSplayer:


I used a surface temperature map listed on the same sight you got that.

Be perplexed.

Surface temps are far below normal, but melt is above normal, according to the same source.

That doesn't add up under the present laws of thermodynamics.



Note:

Map type greatly, and I do mean greatly, exaggerates the size of arctic and antarctic features. It's really quite ridiculous and largely useless, due to it's horribly misleading nature, but that's what we have to work with...

You are using a one day anomaly map when your claim was, "The Arctic and much of Greenland is currently 5C to 10C below normal, and has been for several days."

I don't think that map supports your assertion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


Think of the two biggest "theories" in modern science. The Big one in biology, and the big one in cosmology.

Do they make claims? Yes.

So we have a hypothesis.

Can they make predictions? No, they can't.

Can they be repeated? No, actually, they can't.

Can they be tested? No, they can't.

Do they contradict other axioms or laws of physics or logic? At least one of them does.


A short study of comparative anatomy might change your mind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting daddyjames:



For example, one reason (and only one) Darwin's theory is a theory of Evolution rests on being able to define what a species is. There is no commonly accepted definition of a species that covers all life forms. Right now there are 26 working definitions of what a species is.

In essence, the definition of a species is like the Supreme Court ruling on pornography in that:

"I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description ["species"]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it . . . "


Uh-oh, you have used the words of summoning... the botanists might descend to have the great war of the splitters vs. lumpers... hybridized oaks will be thrown like matchsticks...

Fortunately, they'll probably only seriously consider posts written in latin...
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
Quoting zampaz:

Was a "Law" in the polite sense of the word.
Einstein blew that "law" out of the water.
Good ole Newtons laws are still useful in classical dynamics for most systems, but we couldn't use GPS without factoring the effects of relativity with any degree of accuracy because classical dynamics classically doesn't address time dilation as a function of spatial distortion due to mass.


Ah, Newton's law works on one scale - at least I'm not floating away ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Climate doesn't cause fires. Did someone say climate causes fires? If not, then you really didn't rebut anything.
Climate is related to the conditions that make fires more likely, or more likely to spread.

Alaska has seen ridges of high pressure before, yet this one is causing warmer temperatures. That's what more heat energy in the climate system does - high temperatures, on average, even with similar weather patterns. The high pressure area (weather) explains the anomaly, in this case warm weather. Climate change explains the trend in frequency and magnitude of the warm weather, and increases in warm extremes. It is very very likely that in the future, when Alaska sees record temperatures again, it will be caused by a high pressure area.


What climatic normal are you using? Greenland melt has been above average according to NSIDC for most of melt season so far, and much above average for a substantial recent portion:


I used a surface temperature map listed on the same sight you got that.

Be perplexed.

Surface temps are far below normal, but melt is above normal, according to the same source.

That doesn't add up under the present laws of thermodynamics.



Note:

Map type greatly, and I do mean greatly, exaggerates the size of arctic and antarctic features. It's really quite ridiculous and largely useless, due to it's horribly misleading nature, but that's what we have to work with...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gearsts:
How can that happen over land? I remember Irene doing something similar over PR.
And fay did it over Florida.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting daddyjames:


Actually, it pretty much is a law.

Was a "Law" in the polite sense of the word.
Einstein blew that "law" out of the water.
Good ole Newtons laws are still useful in classical dynamics for most systems, but we couldn't use GPS without factoring the effects of relativity with any degree of accuracy because classical dynamics classically doesn't address time dilation as a function of spatial distortion due to mass.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Are you John Denver?


I'm totally on-topic. Global Warming = factories
And then there's the John Denver reference...

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting RTSplayer:


Think of the two biggest "theories" in modern science. The Big one in biology, and the big one in cosmology.

Do they make claims? Yes.

So we have a hypothesis.

Can they make predictions? No, they can't.

Can they be repeated? No, actually, they can't.

Can they be tested? No, they can't.

Do they contradict other axioms or laws of physics or logic? At least one of them does.

Ouch! The wrong...it hurtses, it does.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The circulation of 02L is becoming increasingly tight as it begins to enter the Bay of Campeche. Much improved structure from this morning as well.

How can that happen over land? I remember Irene doing something similar over PR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


Think of the two biggest "theories" in modern science. The Big one in biology, and the big one in cosmology.

Do they make claims? Yes.

So we have a hypothesis.

Can they make predictions? No, they can't.

Can they be repeated? No, actually, they can't.

Can they be tested? No, they can't.

Do they contradict other axioms or laws of physics or logic? At least one of them does.
I am at a lost for words .........But I will recover
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


Think of the two biggest "theories" in modern science. The Big one in biology, and the big one in cosmology.

Do they make claims? Yes.

So we have a hypothesis.

Can they make predictions? No, they can't.

Can they be repeated? No, actually, they can't.

Can they be tested? No, they can't.

Do they contradict other axioms or laws of physics or logic? At least one of them does.


Wow, you are way off and illustrate a complete lack of knowledge about how science works.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Is alive! Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting schistkicker:


Definitely not true.

Excerpted from Wikipedia:
Darwin began an eight-year study of barnacles, becoming the leading expert on their classification. Using his theory, he discovered homologies showing that slightly changed body parts served different functions to meet new conditions, and he found an intermediate stage in the evolution of distinct sexes.[37]

Darwin's barnacle studies convinced him that variation arose constantly and not just in response to changed circumstances. In 1854, he completed the last part of his Beagle-related writing and began working full-time on evolution. His thinking changed from the view that species formed in isolated populations only, as on islands, to an emphasis on speciation without isolation; that is, he saw increasing specialisation within large stable populations as continuously exploiting new ecological niches.

-----------------------------------------

It was not just a "I see it this way, therefore here's my post hoc determination that can never be tested or refuted" idea.


Yes, all observational data - he did not induce changes by breeding them. Did not conduct any tests. Observation.

You can come up with a hypothesis to test an observation (a phenomenon). A theory explains the results of several phenomena - and predictions can be made from it (generating new hypotheses to test).

It is not as clear cut as we would to believe.

For example, one reason (and only one) Darwin's theory is a theory of Evolution rests on being able to define what a species is. There is no commonly accepted definition of a species that covers all life forms. Right now there are 26 working definitions of what a species is.

In essence, the definition of a species is like the Supreme Court ruling on pornography in that:

"I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description ["species"]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it . . . "
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting schistkicker:


This is going to veer wildly off-topic, but Darwin's observations and interpretations are 150 years old; the Theory of Evolution is no longer dependent on them, but on the myriad experiments, models, and observations made during studies of the fossil record, the geographic distribution of species, molecular biology, genetics, among many many others. The results of many thousands of individual investigations, and the nested hierarchy of results that weave together to form a well-developed explanation of the observed patterns across these fields via the mechanism of natural selection, produce the robust scientific consensus we have today.

In short, being a scientific theory means you're a really darned good explanation of what we're observing in the natural world, and we can make predictions of what's likely to happen based on you and do a pretty good job of it.
It doesn't make you a "guess" or a "half-baked idea" to be called a "theory". Not so long as you're talking to a scientist, anyway.


Think of the two biggest "theories" in modern science. The Big one in biology, and the big one in cosmology.

Do they make claims? Yes.

So we have a hypothesis.

Can they make predictions? No, they can't.

Can they be repeated? No, actually, they can't.

Can they be tested? No, they can't.

Do they contradict other axioms or laws of physics or logic? At least one of them does.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
re-post


You should see what asbestos does to Lungs after 30 years..




All this comes from Human thought, all around us is what human thought has created.
But in that process we have set loose a new Climate that is warming at a rate faster than any in History. We know the forcings,..we know the drivers.

But things are being loved and people used, when its supposed to be the other way around.

Until the driving force of the Planet, becomes something other than the accumulation of wealth and Nations,

Do not expect anything to change until the Climate well, demands it.

Adaptation will be key, but Calamity can wipe out Whole Species here.

It's happened before.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
The circulation of 02L is becoming increasingly tight as it begins to enter the Bay of Campeche. Much improved structure from this morning as well.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
D.B.Cooper..short term memory slippage.?
Quoting hydrus:
D.B.Cooper..short term memory slippage.?
Airplane, money, parachute, disappeared
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aprinz1979:
This blog has been on AGW all day. Thanks to Jim Pettit!!!!!!!!!
Get used to it aprinz....Nea is god (in his own mind)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Are you John Denver?
D.B.Cooper..short term memory slippage.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
It must be "insult Tuesday" because they sure are being thrown..Climate change discussions just brings out the worst in people..

GT..every potential storm starts out with a weak low..however what I showing was the onset of a 1014 mb that went to a 1025 mb..as I said the potential is there..never said it was a Category 4 hurricane..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Birthmark:

Only a larger scales and under relatively (HA!) slow speeds and low gravity.

For small scales we have quantum theory. Newton's Laws fail at these scales.

For higher speeds and gravity, relativity is needed. Newtons Laws fail under these conditions.

But for ordinary purposes on Earth, Newton's Laws work well.

Yeah, objects or particles tends to defy Newtonian physics when they are moving at or close to the speed of light.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Two mobile live chaser streams from NE Colorado are up.
Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting daddyjames:


A hypothesis is an educated guess designed to test one observed phenomenon.

A theory is an attempt to coherently explain a number of observed phenomena.

Darwin's theory of evolution was drawn upon a compendium of observation data - no hypotheses were tested to produce experimental data.

English is a contextual and confusing language.

Hypothesis: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hypothe sis

Theory: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/theory

Regarding Newton and thermodynamics:
"As students of physics will tell you, however, Isaac Newton’s laws relate to motion and gravity. The laws of thermodynamics, relating to the transfer of heat, were initially developed by Lord Kelvin more than 100 years after Newton had snuffed it."

Regarding Darwin; The "Theory of Natural Selection" is best left for another day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 897 - 847

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.