TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

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Quoting gator23:
Makes sense. You don't need evidence to prove god,
1)Double negative
2)You are right Columbus didnt have to sail around the earth to prove it wasnt flat. Oh wait...


That's not a double negative.

A double negative is when you make a statement involving two negatives which "cancel" one another, causing the statement to mean the opposite of what is intended.


That choice of words seems more poor when you isolate it outside the context of the post to which I was responding.

I guess what I was trying to say would be more easily portrayed with an illustration.

Suppose we have an allegation of a statement on audio recording, but suppose said recording has been deleted.

One cannot prove that anything was actually recorded, since it was deleted.

However, being deleted neither proves nor disproves the prior existence of anything at all on the audio, or what the thing might have been.

To restate, an audio tape recording no event does not prove the event didn't take place. A deletion neither proves nor disproves the existence or nature of an event which may or may not have happened.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
For those of you who are interested, Stu Ostro posted on facebook an image from the Denver Airport radar of the tornado earlier. I think it it pretty cool.

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We have to be aware now that as we lean into the Latter weeks of June and early July that the SST's,TCHP, and all those variables can line up to form a Hurricane.

History and climatology shows us that well.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Don't be hiding out around here Grothar, I know you're here. :)

I'm putting the odds of TD TWO getting named Barry at 50%
Gotta play it safe if you know what I mean ;)


Oh, I'm not lurking really. I just didn't have anything intelligent to say so I stayed quiet. All in all not a bad practice.
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Quoting JohnLonergan:

Big Bang Predicted this:


Mothra's egg! lol jk
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Quoting TylerStanfield:
Ill have a new blog tomorrow. No promises, but I plan to.


Alright. .. looking forward for.

I just posted a new blog as well.
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Of coarse Gro comments right before I post my comment... Great timing you got there Gro. :)
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1304
Don't be hiding out around here Grothar, I know you're here. :)

I'm putting the odds of TD TWO getting named Barry at 50%
Gotta play it safe if you know what I mean ;)
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Please don't quote the Whackos...
(or the tooth fairy)

; )
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Quoting daddyjames:




yes, muffed the reference for thermodynamics - one reason why I am not a physicist.;)


Lesson learned: Even the worlds greatest scientists fumble.
What we learn from denialists is that as far as the public is concerned with science all you really need is a good publicist.
It occurs to me that science types are so detail oriented that we argue over trivial nuances with each other when we need to present a united front against an organized and well funded campaign misinformation.
We need to communicate the urgency of action because we have to overcome a great deal of "inertia" in congress. (Ref Newtons First Law (which isn't really a dogmatic Law)).
Scientists are used to carefully choosing adjectives.
In most cases this is understandable and acceptable...
we need to pull out the guns and start talking in terms of extinction so the public will understand the risk potential of the threats we're facing.
As the technically oriented community of the wunderground we understand the domino effect implied by collapsing food chains and ecosystems.
A media pundit may quip "So we lose a few species, who needs polar bears, shell fish and coral anyway?"
Recent extreme weather events provide fruitful opportunity to open discussions with those in our personal networks.
It's time that saying "There is no excuse for willful ignorance and stupidity." becomes politically correct.
Much like saying "please don't smoke here." is now an acceptable thing to say.

I'll try to avoid the temptation of ranting in the Tropics blog. I feel my naive questions about our atmosphere are welcome here and I hope to keep it that way.



Edit:
Please join me in Dr. Roods blog for further climate change discussions.
-z











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a buoy that is located near Veracruz, that should provide an intriguing account as TD2 is forcasted to make landfall closeby




Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.174N 96.093W
Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2013 22:00:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 5.1 kt gusting to 7.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and falling
Air Temperature: 84.2 F
Dew Point: 74.7 F

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People are teleconferencing now more than ever, its cheaper. Also we can make those vehicles less pollutant.

Quoting stormygace:
Less of a carbon footprint to stay home & teleconference, don't ya think? Especially if everyone travels by road or air. Loving the leadership by example action.
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The center is beginning to move over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. In response to that, new burst of convection is developing to the right of the low-level center.

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Quoting AussieStorm:


Maybe it was as they normally do some testing on them before their use and release to the public.


Yes Aussie you are correct, that is what I was made to understand!
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Makes sense.
1)Double negative
2)You are right Columbus didnt have to sail around the earth to prove it wasnt flat. Oh wait...
Quoting RTSplayer:


Evidence is not required for the non-existence of something.

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Less of a carbon footprint to stay home & teleconference, don't ya think? Especially if everyone travels by road or air. Loving the leadership by example action.
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927. FIUStormChaser 6:23 PM CDT on June 18, 2013

Thanks Patrap, you can clearly see in the last frame a little burst of convection over the broad circulation and that correlates on the Campeche radar, all signs point to a slight reorganization of 02L as it begins to enter the warm gulf waters.



Seems she getting her eye wet fer sho'
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Quoting sar2401:

Just got back from an epidural to my neck. It makes AGW arguments seem fun by comparison.


Yeah, epidurals are no fun at all, even with Bud Light "Lime-A-Ritas." They help the AGW arguments _immensely_, though, for the record. "Lime-A-Ritas," that is, not epidurals. I can't speak to the latter in that regard.

For back/neck pain, I assume. Hope it helps. Good rest after any medical thing playing with any part of nerves, anywhere, is usually helpful, in my experience. Good luck.
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Quoting Patrap:


Thanks Patrap, you can clearly see in the last frame a little burst of convection over the broad circulation and that correlates on the Campeche radar, all signs point to a slight reorganization of 02L as it begins to enter the warm gulf waters.




The radar was taken from the following comment, all credit to whipster:

896. whipster 10:49 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
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Quoting TylerStanfield:
Ill have a new blog tomorrow. No promises, but I plan to.


Don't be a tease now...
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I believe DMAX will bring us Barry depending on how much TD2 can improve its structure and organization.
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922. SLU
The June Japanese model forecast is out. Absolutely no sign of El Nino in the foreseeable future, a very wet Caribbean and unusually dry anomalies in the subtropics which indicates that this model favours an active MDR with the Caribbean being the hotspot for storms in 2013.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Evening, Looks like TD2 is emerging off the coast of MX into the BOC. I emailed the Met Office in Grand Cayman about when the Cayman Islands Doppler Radar will be running and going online for the public, they emailed me back and said hopefully by this upcoming weekend , if it had been running this past weekend it might have answered the question as whether TD2 was a TD or minimal TS before it was called.


Maybe it was as they normally do some testing on them before their use and release to the public.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
02L



The first and third animations really do well to show how quickly TD2 is consolidating and wrapping itself back up nicely; at this rate it will very likely become Barry.
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Ill have a new blog tomorrow. No promises, but I plan to.
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Leepi
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


And 92 is pushing off the wall for his final lap, across the GOM! Looking forward to model runs.
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Quoting daddyjames:
By the way - what's been going on in the tropics? LOL

Just got back from an epidural to my neck. It makes AGW arguments seem fun by comparison. :-)

From reading the 4:00 discussion, it appears TD 2 is not quite a corpes, and the NHC is once again playing catch up. From the satellite and radar presentation, I'd guess this indeed has a chance to be Barry by 11:00 pm. We'll see if I'm right. It's rare, but it happens.
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For those interested, I made a blog update on TD 2 and the June outlook.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
panovich said he didnt like that storm's looks before it even passed raleigh


When I was driving home in Durham about an hour earlier saw a really interesting cloud formation that was most likely the start of that particular cell. It was very weird. Bummed I didn't pull over and take a photo.

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Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Evening, Looks like TD2 is emerging off the coast of MX into the BOC. I emailed the Met Office in Grand Cayman about when the Cayman Islands Doppler Radar will be running and going online for the public, they emailed me back and said hopefully by this upcoming weekend , if it had been running this past weekend it might have answered the question as whether TD2 was a TD or minimal TS before it was called.

That's good to know.
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I see that TD2 (atlantic) is poking its circulation out of the BOC. Looking like it is taking advantage of being over water to organize.
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Quoting barbamz:
German site to look at above/below temperature forecasts, using GFS. You can animate several forecasts which can be selected by the panel in the right corner above. I see a lot of above normal temps in Canada and Russia the days ahead (but this time not Greenland).


850 hPa

Germany is competing with Alaska concerning the aberrations right now *sweat, sweat*. We're in for severe storms tomorrow and/or Thursday.

Good night to everybody!
Looks that from flooding Germany might expect drought conditions if it verifies.
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From WWAY TV3

No Tornado Warnings in the WWAY viewing area, but the Raleigh National Weather Service office continues to track a possible tornado across Franklin and Nash counties
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02L

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Quoting RTSplayer:





30 day anomaly.



Yes, it's funny how when you average things out over a chosen longer time period, the information that you might gain from the range disappears, isn't it? Deviation, shmeviation.

It's breaking heat records in Alaska. That doesn't negate the cold that came before, nor the other way 'round. In fact, that it was so cold before, and now it is so hot, is that much more interesting.

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has rotation

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watch the bottom cell too

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02L/TD/XX/XX
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-_-.
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panovich said he didnt like that storm's looks before it even passed raleigh
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Evidence is not required for the non-existence of something.

If you want evidence of existence of something, that's up to you to prove, particulary since the AGW camp are the ones so reliant on proxy data. You did not have thermometers, so rely on far from perfect methods of reconstructing data from before humans existed. Idiocy.





So the fractionation of oxygen-18 and oxygen-16 behaved differently prior to the invention of mass spectrometers?
Same with carbon?
Same with sulfur?

Species distributions recorded in the fossil record, including plankton, algae, pollen, and other temperature-sensitive species, are completely dissimilar from modern ranges of similar species today?


"Your Honor, you must acquit the defendant. Sure, the bloody knife matches a set found in his kitchen, and the footprint left in the mud outside the victim's home matches the tread of his sneaker, the blood splashed on his pants leg matches the victim's blood type, and he was heard last week telling the victim he was going to kill him, but there was no one in the house to witness the murder when it happened. All this proxy data doesn't prove anything!"
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By the way - what's been going on in the tropics? LOL
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Quoting hericane96:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that TD2 could get to a 65 mp storm. I know I'm crazy right, but it's structure has improved and has about 2 days over water. It's Location is one of the best in the Atlantic and is know for quick spin ups.

It really only was tomorrow to strengthen its should be over land early Thursday. I still think it is possible for it to get up to a high end TS but unlikely. TS Marco got to 65mph but it was much smaller I think it is far more likely that we will see a 40-45mph TS.
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02L RGB Loop

click Image for Loop

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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