TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

Share this Blog
52
+

Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner  (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 97 - 47

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Folks are free to parse Dr. Masters's words any way they wish, but there's no doubt that there is 1) a deep red part of northern California, and 2) Redding is the politcally conservative heart of that part.

Now that that's straight: the KCNR call-in show is obviously interesting from a climate change point of view, but it's also interesting as a psychological study into denialism and willingness to believe in conspiracy theories. There have so far been more nonsense calls about chemtrails than there have been about, say, CO2, which one supposes says a lot about KCNR's Fox-listening audience. If nothing else, it tells us that changing the station once in awhile in order to listen to things outside our comfy bubbles is probably a good and healthy thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My comment has been removed because I told people to stop crying that their predictions are going to crash?.Ha ha talk about overly sensitive people.People aren't nice in the real world and some wouldn't last on other forums/boards.Man up SMH..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17482
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


how much seating?

showers developing

I believe it is configurable. The Pantheon is supposed to hold the standard NFL seating which I think is around 60,000-55,000 and MLS seating which I believe is 30,000-25,000. Atlanta is expected to get a MLS team along with the new stadium and Superbowl 52.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It'll be interesting to see if the National Hurricane Center discontinues advisories or not. Obviously if one doesn't have a closed low-level circulation it doesn't officially meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone. However, the NHC has...and should in this case as well...continued advisories under the mindset that it would re-intensify within 24 hours.

It would be useless to discontinue them this afternoon just to start them again tomorrow afternoon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32527
Quoting hydrus:
Probably because of its much weakened state. Low level winds are a bit different from whats happening up high..



Yup. And, although wv is not showing much in the way of precip, I think we should remember that the mid-level circ can pull moisture inwards, albeit gradually overland, from all three sides of the flat peninsula. Agree, weaker system with present steering will continue to drift a bit more polewards even if it's ever so slowly.

Oh, and g'morning, weathergeeks! :) Have a nice Tuesday!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


1% chance of RI maybe

Can you say Barry?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here you go sar btw good morning to you all.


Good morning as well. Oh, that chart. Standard boilerplate for any storm to have 1% chance. No one, using percentages for probability, uses 0% when there is, in fact, an extremely low, but non-zero chance, that something might happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uh, oh. Not good. Madoki El Nino years.




1995 joint 3rd most active season, 19 storms, 5 majors.

2010 joint 3rd most active season, 19 storms, 5 majors

2005 most active season, 31 storms, 7 majors.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

Including geographical ignorance, apparently.
Yes, apparently (see #76).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
02L's heading looks to be nearly straight northwest. That's interesting.


Does look almost or already an open wave at the surface but would spot the best concentrated LLC near the extreme NW corner of Belize.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here you go sar btw good morning to you all.



1% chance of RI maybe
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
02L's heading looks to be nearly straight northwest. That's interesting.


Can you say Barry?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Certainly they are. But those counties aren't in question Dr. Masters was referring to Shasta, Siskiyou, Tehama, Glenn, Plumas, and Butte, counties that comprise conservative northern California. And Redding is definitely the "deep red" heart of that area. Here's a map:

Ca

Northern California is Blue along the coasts only; the rest is definitely politically conservative.

That's not what Dr. Masters posted. Northern California is not all "deep red". Since I lived in the "deep blue" part of northern California, it's kind of an important distinction. The Central Valley, in general, is red. The coastal areas, north, central, and north, are blue. California is literally two different states politically.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For me a prediction of 15/8/5 seems reasonable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Doug Craig finally hung up on the chemtrails nutcase and then re-introduced himself as, "Dr. Doug Craig, Psychologist" :-)
Quoting daddyjames:
Boy, this third caller is "passionate" to say the least - not giving the doctor a chance to respond to his question. Hosts, quite rightly so, cut the caller off - only because he would not let the guest respond.

Missed the next question: business call.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
02L is lifting much farther north than the NHC track says it should be. Should have no issue reaching the Bay of Campeche. The low-level circulation looks to have dissipated, but the mid-level circulation remains.



Also looks to be elongated West to East, Something for us to gaze at tonight that is for sure. This may end up throwing some moisture up to south Texas as well, I am sure that would go miles in adding some relief to the ridiculously dry conditions that have plagued that state for the last half decade.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Next topic:

Sea level rise - good question regarding people living on low lying islands in the Pacific/Indian Ocean acting as "canaries in the coal mine"

The guest rightly points out that we only need to look at Florida . . . :(

Edit: This is regards to the live talk going on, mentioned by Dr. M.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
02L's heading looks to be nearly straight northwest. That's interesting.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32527
Quoting weatherh98:


Modiki isn't bad for Atlantic... But it is for east pac


Depends on how you look at it. The Madoki El Nino is not well researched, but from what I understand it contributes to a more active Atlantic hurricane season. FYI, 2004 was the last hurricane season that was associated with a Madoki El Nino event.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD2 will have to be looked at with high frequency tonight into tomorrow. NHC states that it may in fact become better organized if it can gain latitude as it crosses the Bay of Campeche. Satellite wise, I don't know if the circulation we are watching is worked down to the surface, it may be more broad and trough like as you work your way down from the mid levels to the lower levels. We all know too well have this Bay can help storms tighten up. Would not surprise me at all if this thing managed to jump up to a 50-60 knot storm before it crashes into the Mexican coast in a few days. Though it is not a likelihood, it still has very real possibility of doing so.

Later tonight when this emerges off the coast, it will be key as to where the convection fires up and tries to tighten up a circulation.

NHC discussion.

THE CENTER IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER LAND. HOWEVER...IF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. EVEN IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LAND
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I feel the NHC should've stuck with their original track which was slightly father north than the current track they have.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17482
Quoting sar2401:

Can you please post a link to this 1% thing? I can't find it anywhere on the NHC site.
Here you go sar btw good morning to you all.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
And yet another chemtrail nutcase has ahold of the KCNR airwaves.

Ignorance is rampant. Frighteningly rampant...

Including geographical ignorance, apparently.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

Nea, would you say the counties of Marin, Sonoma, Mendocino, and Humbolt are or are not in northern California?
Certainly they are. But those counties aren't in question Dr. Masters was referring to Shasta, Siskiyou, Tehama, Glenn, Plumas, and Butte, counties that comprise conservative northern California. And Redding is definitely the "deep red" heart of that area. Here's a map:

Ca

Northern California is Blue along the coasts only; the rest is definitely politically conservative.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Boy, this third caller is "passionate" to say the least - not giving the doctor a chance to respond to his question. Hosts, quite rightly so, cut the caller off - only because he would not let the guest respond.

Missed the next question: business call.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
02L is lifting much farther north than the NHC track says it should be. Should have no issue reaching the Bay of Campeche. The low-level circulation looks to have dissipated, but the mid-level circulation remains.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32527
Quoting fabian171017:
Adv. 5 just issued
How on earth is there a 1% probability that TD2 becomes a hurricane within 24h?

Can you please post a link to this 1% thing? I can't find it anywhere on the NHC site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


Actually, there are many indications that a Madoki El Nino event is well under way and could be in full effect by this time next month.


Modiki isn't bad for Atlantic... But it is for east pac
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
heat coming?


X_X upper 100's for me?! Yuck... I hate it when its that hot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting , Very little precipitation showing on Navy Vapour image

NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/vap_images



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


I can't find the COC which should be visible if the convection were drifting away...
Sign it's really weaken.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormPro:


He was on the previous blog. He put out a warning about tasty breakfast postings because of his new diet lol


Good to hear - thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


Looks much farther north...
Probably because of its much weakened state. Low level winds are a bit different from whats happening up high..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21757
And yet another chemtrail nutcase has ahold of the KCNR airwaves.

Ignorance is rampant. Frighteningly rampant...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Dr. Masters is entirely correct in referrring to Redding as "the conservative heart of deep red Northern California", "deep red" being the adjective used to describe that decidely non-liberal area in the center of the state both north of Sacramento and south of the Oregon state line.

Speaking of Redding and climate change, the local paper-of-record--the Redding Record Searchlight--employs as a columnist a brilliant and stalwart defender of climate science named Doug Craig. Craig's column--Climate of Change-- covers climate change science and policy in a plain-spoken and polite manner, yet he neveretheless fails to be pummeled mercilessly by ignorant individuals who are of the opinion that every scientist on the planet is part of a huge leftist scam to steal their taxes so Al Gore can buy a bigger jet, or something. Anyway, Craig has actually covered the KCNR call-in show for the past week or so; I look forward to hearing his afterthoughts on the event...


Al Gore bought a beachfront house, and that proves he doesn't believe in global warming.

(sarcasm flag on, just in case someone takes me literally)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
heat coming?

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
heat coming?

I hope the second half of summer is cool like 2009 was.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17482
Quoting washingtonian115:
No sign of a El nino anytime soon from the signiture in the east pacific.


Actually, there are many indications that a Madoki El Nino event is well under way and could be in full effect by this time next month.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Dr. Masters is entirely correct in referrring to Redding as "the conservative heart of deep red Northern California", "deep red" being the adjective used to describe that decidely non-liberal area in the center of the state both north of Sacramento and south of the Oregon state line.

Speaking of Redding and climate change, the local paper-of-record--the Redding Record Searchlight--employs as a columnist a brilliant and stalwart defender of climate science named Doug Craig. Craig's column--Climate of Change-- covers climate change science and policy in a plain-spoken and polite manner, yet he neveretheless fails to be pummeled mercilessly by ignorant individuals who are of the opinion that every scientist on the planet is part of a huge leftist scam to steal their taxes so Al Gore can buy a bigger jet, or something. Anyway, Craig has actually covered the KCNR call-in show for the past week or so; I look forward to hearing his afterthoughts on the event...

Nea, would you say the counties of Marin, Sonoma, Mendocino, and Humbolt are or are not in northern California?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
GAstorm I think you will be glad to hear the new Falcons stadium design has been passed by committee. They updated the design to make the area of the retractable roof larger. Looks awesome.


how much seating?

showers developing

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Third question:

geo-engineering (aka global weather modification) - a more intense accusation of:

CHEMTRAILS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

How would I guess? Nothing like making yourself look like a fool in front of a national audience. :-8 Did you see the YouTube video of the woman spraying "chemtrails" with vinegar from a spray bottle in her back yard? There are some scary folks out there.


Yes I did - thought it was absolutely hilarious when her son (who was videotaping it) said in a exasperated voice halfway through, "We're not a normal family."

Update: second question a reasonable one discussing about why, if oil companies have acknowledged burning fossil fuels contributes to CO2 in the atmosphere, is there still such a "debate". Address the fact that media, in an attempt to "fairly" present both sides, artificially amplifies the "dissent" that exists.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I wonder if it is just the convection that is drifting off to the north or the COC itself.


I can't find the COC which should be visible if the convection were drifting away...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
heat coming?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just read Barbamz comment on the Indian rains.
We have sever flooding in the north of Spain at the moment today. Bridges washed away and hundreds evacuated from their homes. All on the south west side of the Pyrenees mountains.
Heave rains expected to continue for some time over saturated ground. One eye witness of about 50 years old said he had never seem anything like it before. A lot of riverside campsites washed away!
Here in Southern Spain, its all of 16/C today or about 20/C below normal for the time of year. Throwing it down with rain at the moment. All bad news for the tourist industry and not too good for the grain and hay harvests.
Looks like the weather gone a bit poco loco at the moment this year!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stoormfury:
I am still at a lost ,as to why there is this sudden apprehension, about 2013 hurricane season will not be an over active oe. by the look of things there is nothing concrete to say otherwise. Yes the so called reliable model ,the EURO is trending towards an EL Nino. and a reduction .in activity. which I think does not appear to be the case. The early signs of hyper activity, has manifested itself with the unprecedented unnamed storm ( 92L) in the central atlantic earlier this month. One also has to look at the strength of the tropical waves that have so far come off the African coast. one wave in question is the one at 20W which has good cyclonic turning near the wave axis. THIS COULD BE AN INDICATOR OF WHAT TO EXPECT, COME JULY, AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER.

It's not clear to me that we have skills to predict anything about how active a season will be from events in June in any case. It will either be active, average, or quiet the rest of this season. There, that about covers all the bases.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


Looks much farther north...
I wonder if it is just the convection that is drifting off to the north or the COC itself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Masters is entirely correct in referrring to Redding as "the conservative heart of deep red Northern California", "deep red" being the adjective used to describe that decidely non-liberal area in the center of the state both north of Sacramento and south of the Oregon state line.

Speaking of Redding and climate change, the local paper-of-record--the Redding Record Searchlight--employs as a columnist a brilliant and stalwart defender of climate science named Doug Craig. Craig's column--Climate of Change-- covers climate change science and policy in a plain-spoken and polite manner, yet he neveretheless fails to be pummeled mercilessly by ignorant individuals who are of the opinion that every scientist on the planet is part of a huge leftist scam to steal their taxes so Al Gore can buy a bigger jet, or something. Anyway, Craig has actually covered the KCNR call-in show for the past week or so; I look forward to hearing his afterthoughts on the event...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GAstorm I think you will be glad to hear the new Falcons stadium design has been passed by committee. They updated the design to make the area of the retractable roof larger. Looks awesome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Looks much farther north...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 90.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Grothar will see this...... :)


Ah, but there's no cholesterol in cyber food, it's perfectly safe and healthy. *G*

The rain is still north of me, but hoping the nice 'blob' of rain west will come here. My sinuses are beyond stuffed, I'm sneezing and coughing. If I must deal with the fun sinus problems due to the rain, then at least the weather needs to water my garden for me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting daddyjames:
So, if you are not listening the first question posed live to the climate expert was (drumroll, please_ . . .)

CHEMTRAILS!

(I am not kidding)

@sar - got your WU mail.

How would I guess? Nothing like making yourself look like a fool in front of a national audience. :-8 Did you see the YouTube video of the woman spraying "chemtrails" with vinegar from a spray bottle in her back yard? There are some scary folks out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 97 - 47

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.